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Wed Nov 20 9:15 am

UEFA Champions League - Week 9 of 20

Dortmund What If?

The Dortmund What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Dortmund plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Dortmund What If?

Next Game - Zagreb (2‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 4 1 0 12 18% 22% 17% 12% 8% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 3 1 0 9 11% 16% 14% 11% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 9 1% 5% 9% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 18% 22% 17% 12% 8% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 11% 16% 14% 11% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 5% 9% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Dortmund beats Zagreb
 Worst Case Scenario
   Zagreb beats Dortmund
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
4 of 4 100% 7 1 0 21 57% 39% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 6 2 0 18 3% 20% 36% 27% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 4 50% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 15% 23% 23% 17% 9% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
1 of 4 25% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 16% 22% 22% 16% 7% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
0 of 4 0% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 19% 71%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round