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Wed Nov 20 9:15 am

UEFA Champions League - Week 9 of 20

Real Madrid What If?

The Real Madrid What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Real Madrid plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Real Madrid What If?

Next Game - Liverpool (4‑0)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 3 2 0 9 1% 5% 10% 11% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 2 0 6 <1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Lose Next Game 2 3 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 6%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 1% 5% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings <1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 6%
Best Case Scenario
   Slovan beats AC Milan
   Young Boys beats Atalanta
   Real Madrid beats Liverpool
 Worst Case Scenario
   AC Milan beats Slovan
   Atalanta beats Young Boys
   Liverpool beats Real Madrid
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
4 of 4 100% 6 2 0 18 4% 18% 31% 29% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 11% 20% 25% 20% 12% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
2 of 4 50% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 7% 15% 22% 23% 16% 9% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 4 25% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 11% 22% 64%
0 of 4 0% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round