The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 30% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 37% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 40% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 36% |
| Current Standings | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 37% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 38% |
|
Best Case Scenario Rams beats Jaguars Jets beats Panthers Titans beats Patriots |
Worst Case Scenario Jaguars beats Rams Panthers beats Jets Patriots beats Titans |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 11 of 11 | 100% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 89% | 11% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 11 | 91% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 56% | 34% | 4% | <1% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 11 | 82% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 21% | 42% | 18% | 2% | 17% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 8 of 11 | 73% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 22% | 28% | 9% | 30% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 of 11 | 64% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 6% | 21% | 18% | 27% | 23% | 5% | <1% |
| 6 of 11 | 55% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 12% | 32% | 22% | 7% |
| 5 of 11 | 45% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 15% | 30% | 39% |
| 4 of 11 | 36% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 83% |
| 3 of 11 | 27% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
| 2 of 11 | 18% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 11 | 9% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | X | <1% | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 11 | 0% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |