The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 8 | 2 | 0 | 12% | 31% | 35% | 21% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9% | 26% | 32% | 31% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 18% | 35% | 40% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 19% | 30% | 33% | 17% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 9% | 26% | 32% | 31% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 3% | 16% | 32% | 46% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Broncos beats Chiefs Bills beats Colts Lions beats Texans |
Worst Case Scenario Chiefs beats Broncos Colts beats Bills Texans beats Lions |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 8 of 8 | 100% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 76% | 24% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 8 | 88% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 32% | 60% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 8 | 75% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 6% | 50% | 41% | 4% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 8 | 63% | 12 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 19% | 57% | 23% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 8 | 50% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 4% | 42% | 54% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 of 8 | 38% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 18% | 77% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 of 8 | 25% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 77% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 9% |
| 1 of 8 | 13% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 53% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 41% |
| 0 of 8 | 0% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | 21% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 79% |