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Fri Oct 2 12:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Patriots (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 0 0 21% 16% 17% 13% 3% 4% 5% 22%
Current Standings 3 0 0 20% 15% 16% 12% 3% 4% 5% 26%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 12% 13% 16% 13% 4% 5% 6% 31%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 21% 16% 18% 14% 3% 4% 5% 21%
Current Standings 20% 15% 16% 12% 3% 4% 5% 26%
Worst Case Scenario 12% 13% 15% 12% 4% 5% 6% 33%
Best Case Scenario
   Bills beats Patriots
   Vikings beats Dolphins
 Worst Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Bills
   Dolphins beats Vikings
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 16 1 0 96% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 15 2 0 76% 22% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 14 3 0 39% 45% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
10 of 14 71% 13 4 0 11% 40% 38% 8% 3% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 14 64% 12 5 0 2% 18% 47% 21% 8% 4% 1% <1%
8 of 14 57% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 32% 34% 9% 13% 6% 1%
7 of 14 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 13% 34% 4% 15% 20% 14%
6 of 14 43% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 4% 24% 1% 6% 18% 48%
5 of 14 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% 1% 10% <1% <1% 6% 83%
4 of 14 29% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% 96%
3 of 14 21% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 14 7% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs