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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Ravens (4‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 1 0 24% 16% 18% 11% 6% 7% 7% 11%
Current Standings 5 1 0 21% 16% 17% 12% 6% 6% 7% 17%
Lose Next Game 5 2 0 10% 14% 19% 14% 5% 7% 8% 24%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 25% 18% 20% 12% 4% 5% 5% 11%
Current Standings 21% 16% 17% 12% 6% 6% 7% 17%
Worst Case Scenario 10% 13% 17% 13% 6% 7% 8% 25%
Best Case Scenario
   Bills beats Ravens
   Chargers beats Rams
   Dolphins beats Patriots
 Worst Case Scenario
   Ravens beats Bills
   Rams beats Chargers
   Patriots beats Dolphins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 16 1 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 11 91% 15 2 0 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 11 82% 14 3 0 63% 31% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 11 73% 13 4 0 22% 45% 24% 4% 5% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 11 64% 12 5 0 3% 24% 41% 15% 11% 5% 1% <1%
6 of 11 55% 11 6 0 <1% 5% 32% 28% 10% 16% 8% 1%
5 of 11 45% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 14% 29% 3% 15% 23% 16%
4 of 11 36% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 3% 18% <1% 3% 17% 58%
3 of 11 27% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% 2% 92%
2 of 11 18% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
1 of 11 9% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 11 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs