The Most Important Games for the Commanders are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Commanders final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Commanders fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Commanders Resultant Playoff Probabilities | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |||
| Commanders (7‑2) vs Steelers (6‑2) |
50 | Commanders Wins | 23% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 13% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Steelers Wins | 12% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 14% | ||
| Texans (6‑3) vs Lions (7‑1) |
16 | Texans Wins | 23% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Lions Wins | 17% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Cowboys (3‑5) vs Eagles (6‑2) |
15 | Cowboys Wins | 21% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Eagles Wins | 20% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Saints (2‑7) vs Falcons (6‑3) |
6 | Saints Wins | 20% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Falcons Wins | 19% | 27% | 9% | 2% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Jaguars (2‑7) vs Vikings (6‑2) |
6 | Jaguars Wins | 21% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Vikings Wins | 20% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Buccaneers (4‑5) vs Forty-Niners49'ers (4‑4) |
3 | Buccaneers Wins | 20% | 27% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Forty-Niners49'ers Wins | 19% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Jets (3‑6) vs Cardinals (5‑4) |
2 | Jets Wins | 20% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Cardinals Wins | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Rams (4‑4) vs Dolphins (2‑6) |
0 | Rams Wins | 20% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Dolphins Wins | 20% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Panthers (2‑7) vs Giants (2‑7) |
0 | Panthers Wins | 20% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Giants Wins | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Patriots (2‑7) vs Bears (4‑4) |
0 | Patriots Wins | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 10% | ||
| Bears Wins | 20% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 11% | ||