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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Commanders What If?

The Commanders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Commanders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Commanders What If?

Next Game - Eagles (2‑5)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 4 1 <1% <1% 4% 5% <1% 1% 2% 87%
Current Standings 1 4 1 <1% <1% 4% 4% <1% 1% 2% 89%
Lose Next Game 1 5 1 <1% <1% 2% 3% <1% <1% 1% 94%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 4% 5% <1% 1% 2% 87%
Current Standings <1% <1% 4% 4% <1% 1% 2% 89%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 3% <1% <1% 1% 94%
Best Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Eagles
 Worst Case Scenario
   Eagles beats Commanders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 12 4 1 5% 42% 50% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 11 91% 11 5 1 <1% 17% 67% 3% 5% 6% 1% <1%
9 of 11 82% 10 6 1 <1% 3% 51% 14% 4% 12% 12% 4%
8 of 11 73% 9 7 1 <1% <1% 21% 21% 1% 6% 20% 31%
7 of 11 64% 8 8 1 <1% <1% 4% 15% <1% <1% 5% 75%
6 of 11 55% 7 9 1 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 95%
5 of 11 45% 6 10 1 X X <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
4 of 11 36% 5 11 1 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 11 27% 4 12 1 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 11 18% 3 13 1 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 11 9% 2 14 1 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 11 0% 1 15 1 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs