The Most Important Games for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fighting Irish final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Notre Dame Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Notre Dame (12‑14) vs Pittsburgh (9‑17) |
45 | Notre Dame Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 16% | 68% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 39% | 54% | ||
| SMU (18‑8) vs Boston College (9‑17) |
5 | SMU Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 49% | 35% | ||
| Virginia (22‑3) vs Georgia Tech (11‑15) |
2 | Virginia Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 52% | 33% | ||
| Virginia Tech (17‑10) vs Wake Forest (14‑12) |
1 | Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 53% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 55% | 31% | ||
| Clemson (20‑7) vs Florida St. (13‑13) |
1 | Clemson Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 54% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 53% | 31% | ||
| California (18‑8) vs Stanford (16‑10) |
1 | California Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 51% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Stanford Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 59% | 31% | ||
| North Carolina (20‑6) vs Syracuse (15‑12) |
0 | North Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 54% | 31% | ||