The Most Important Games for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fighting Irish final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Notre Dame Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Notre Dame (11‑15) vs Pittsburgh (16‑10) |
20 | Notre Dame Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 16% | 21% | 23% | 19% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 23% | 29% | 23% | ||
| Wake Forest (19‑7) vs N.C. State (10‑16) |
11 | Wake Forest Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| N.C. State Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 20% | 22% | 26% | ||
| Virginia Tech (11‑15) vs Miami (6‑20) |
2 | Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 24% | 27% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Miami Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 24% | 19% | ||
| Stanford (16‑10) vs California (12‑14) |
1 | Stanford Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 17% | 23% | 25% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| California Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 21% | 29% | 19% | ||
| Georgia Tech (13‑13) vs Boston College (11‑15) |
1 | Georgia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 23% | 27% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 17% | 22% | 24% | 18% | ||
| North Carolina (16‑11) vs Virginia (13‑13) |
1 | North Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Virginia Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 18% | ||
| Florida St. (16‑10) vs Louisville (20‑6) |
0 | Florida St. Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 25% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Louisville Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| SMU (20‑6) vs Clemson (21‑5) |
0 | SMU Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||
| Clemson Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 25% | 18% | ||