The Most Important Games for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fighting Irish final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Notre Dame Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Clemson (13‑4) vs Georgia Tech (8‑9) |
3 | Clemson Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 22% | ||
| North Carolina (11‑6) vs California (8‑8) |
3 | North Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| California Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 21% | ||
| Duke (14‑2) vs Miami (4‑12) |
2 | Duke Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 21% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Miami Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 22% | ||
| Pittsburgh (12‑4) vs Florida St. (11‑5) |
2 | Pittsburgh Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Wake Forest (12‑4) vs Stanford (11‑5) |
1 | Wake Forest Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Stanford Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 21% | ||
| Louisville (12‑5) vs Syracuse (8‑8) |
1 | Louisville Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 21% | ||
| Virginia Tech (7‑9) vs N.C. State (9‑7) |
1 | Virginia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| N.C. State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 20% | ||
| SMU (12‑4) vs Virginia (8‑8) |
1 | SMU Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 20% | ||
| Virginia Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 21% | ||