The Most Important Games for the Virginia Cavaliers are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Cavaliers final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Virginia Cavaliers fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Virginia Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Virginia (13‑13) vs North Carolina (16‑11) |
21 | Virginia Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| North Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 2% | ||
| Boston College (11‑15) vs Georgia Tech (13‑13) |
6 | Boston College Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Louisville (20‑6) vs Florida St. (16‑10) |
3 | Louisville Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Stanford (16‑10) vs California (12‑14) |
2 | Stanford Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 8% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| California Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 1% | ||
| Notre Dame (11‑15) vs Pittsburgh (16‑10) |
2 | Notre Dame Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 1% | ||
| Wake Forest (19‑7) vs N.C. State (10‑16) |
2 | Wake Forest Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| N.C. State Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 3% | ||
| Miami (6‑20) vs Virginia Tech (11‑15) |
1 | Miami Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 1% | ||
| Clemson (21‑5) vs SMU (20‑6) |
0 | Clemson Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||
| SMU Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 1% | ||