The Most Important Games for the Virginia Cavaliers are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Cavaliers final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Virginia Cavaliers fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Virginia Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Virginia (8‑8) vs SMU (12‑4) |
22 | Virginia Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| SMU Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 21% | ||
| Louisville (12‑5) vs Syracuse (8‑8) |
2 | Louisville Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 19% | ||
| Duke (14‑2) vs Miami (4‑12) |
2 | Duke Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| Miami Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 19% | ||
| Virginia Tech (7‑9) vs N.C. State (9‑7) |
2 | Virginia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| N.C. State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 19% | ||
| Clemson (13‑4) vs Georgia Tech (8‑9) |
1 | Clemson Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 20% | ||
| Wake Forest (12‑4) vs Stanford (11‑5) |
0 | Wake Forest Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| Stanford Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 19% | ||
| Pittsburgh (12‑4) vs Florida St. (11‑5) |
0 | Pittsburgh Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 18% | ||
| California (8‑8) vs North Carolina (11‑6) |
0 | California Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 18% | ||
| North Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 18% | ||