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Mon Oct 20 8:15 pm

La Liga - Week 11 of 41

Real Madrid What If?

The Real Madrid What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Real Madrid What If?

Next Game - Barcelona (7‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 9 1 0 27 49% 23% 12% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 8 1 0 24 43% 24% 13% 8% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 8 2 0 24 35% 27% 15% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 50% 23% 11% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 43% 24% 13% 8% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 35% 27% 14% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Valencia beats Villarreal
   Mallorca beats Levante
   Real Madrid beats Barcelona
 Worst Case Scenario
   Villarreal beats Valencia
   Levante beats Mallorca
   Barcelona beats Real Madrid
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
29 of 29 100% 37 1 0 111 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 33 5 0 99 99% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 31 7 0 93 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 29 76% 30 8 0 90 81% 19% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 29 72% 29 9 0 87 67% 31% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 29 69% 28 10 0 84 49% 43% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 29 66% 27 11 0 81 31% 50% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 29 62% 26 12 0 78 16% 46% 31% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 29 59% 25 13 0 75 6% 31% 41% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 29 55% 24 14 0 72 2% 15% 36% 33% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 29 52% 23 15 0 69 <1% 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 29 48% 22 16 0 66 <1% 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 29 45% 21 17 0 63 <1% <1% 1% 8% 22% 33% 24% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 29 41% 20 18 0 60 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 31% 26% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
11 of 29 38% 19 19 0 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 30% 28% 14% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 29 34% 18 20 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 27% 30% 19% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 29 31% 17 21 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 23% 32% 23% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 29 28% 16 22 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 31% 28% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 29 24% 15 23 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 29% 31% 16% 4% <1% <1%
6 of 29 21% 14 24 0 42 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 29% 33% 18% 5% <1%
5 of 29 17% 13 25 0 39 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 28% 34% 20% 5%
4 of 29 14% 12 26 0 36 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 29% 36% 22%
3 of 29 10% 11 27 0 33 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 34% 52%
2 of 29 7% 10 28 0 30 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 81%
0 of 29 0% 8 30 0 24 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes La Liga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round