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Thu Mar 13 1:00 am

NBA - Week 21 of 25

Heat What If?

The Heat What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Heat play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Heat What If?

Next Game - Celtics (47‑19)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Win Next Game 30 36 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 15% 40% 32% 11% <1%
Current Standings 29 36 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 36% 35% 16% 1%
Lose Next Game 29 37 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 9% 34% 37% 19% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
Best Case Scenario X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 19% 42% 27% 11% <1%
Current Standings X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 36% 35% 16% 1%
Worst Case Scenario X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 30% 42% 20% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Pelicans beats Magic
   Heat beats Celtics
   Clippers beats Hawks
 Worst Case Scenario
   Magic beats Pelicans
   Celtics beats Heat
   Hawks beats Clippers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 8**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 9**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 10**
Play-in Tournament
Participant
 11
17 of 17 100% 46 36 X X <1% 25% 46% 25% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 45 37 X X <1% 9% 34% 42% 15% <1% <1% ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 44 38 X X <1% 2% 16% 43% 37% 2% <1% <1% ^
14 of 17 82% 43 39 X X <1% <1% 5% 28% 60% 8% <1% <1% ^
13 of 17 76% 42 40 X X <1% <1% 1% 11% 65% 23% <1% <1% ^
12 of 17 71% 41 41 X X X <1% <1% 3% 53% 43% 2% <1% ^
11 of 17 65% 40 42 X X X <1% <1% <1% 32% 61% 7% <1% ^
10 of 17 59% 39 43 X X X <1% <1% <1% 14% 67% 19% <1% <1%
9 of 17 53% 38 44 X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 56% 37% 2% <1%
8 of 17 47% 37 45 X X X X <1% <1% 1% 36% 56% 7% <1%
7 of 17 41% 36 46 X X X X X <1% <1% 18% 61% 21% <1%
6 of 17 35% 35 47 X X X X X X <1% 7% 53% 40% <1%
5 of 17 29% 34 48 X X X X X X <1% 2% 35% 62% 2%
4 of 17 24% 33 49 X X X X X X <1% <1% 16% 75% 9%
3 of 17 18% 32 50 X X X X X X X <1% 5% 71% 24%
2 of 17 12% 31 51 X X X X X X X <1% 1% 51% 48%
1 of 17 6% 30 52 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 27% 73%
0 of 17 0% 29 53 X X X X X X X X <1% 9% 91%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • ** denotes Play-in Tournament Participant