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Tue Dec 2 1:30 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 5 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 47 and 48 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 147 teams in 15 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 15 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record Probability of Winning
Its Conference Tournament
W L
56 Virginia Tech ACCACC $MWP$ 6 2 5%
57 Virginia ACCACC $MWP$ 6 1 6%
64 Wake Forest ACCACC $MWP$ 6 2 5%
75 N.C. State ACCACC $MWP$ 5 2 3%
81 Miami ACCACC $MWP$ 6 2 4%
111 Notre Dame ACCACC $MWP$ 5 3 3%
113 Florida St. ACCACC $MWP$ 5 2 3%
116 Pittsburgh ACCACC $MWP$ 5 3 3%
146 Georgia Tech ACCACC $MWP$ 5 3 1%
161 Syracuse ACCACC $MWP$ 4 3 1%
198 Boston College ACCACC $MWP$ 4 4 <1%
 
85 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 5 3 14%
133 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 5 2 12%
134 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 6 3 10%
154 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 6 2 8%
162 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 4 4 7%
188 Wichita St. American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 4 4 4%
193 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 4 4 6%
230 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 2 4 3%
240 Texas-San Antonio American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 4 4 2%
252 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 3 5 1%
287 E. Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 2 5 1%
302 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 3 6 1%
 
49 Saint Louis Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 1 10%
54 Rhode Island Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 2 10%
71 Dayton Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 2 9%
79 Richmond Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 1 5%
93 VCU Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 5 3 6%
112 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 2 6%
172 Duquesne Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 5 2 2%
210 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 4 3 1%
236 Fordham Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 3 1%
305 La Salle Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 3 6 <1%
339 Loyola Chicago Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 1 7 <1%
 
48 Illinois Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 6 2 4%
62 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 6 1 3%
63 Penn State Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 7 1 4%
66 Washington Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 2 3%
77 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 2 3%
80 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 2 2%
92 UCLA Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 2 2%
118 Maryland Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 2 1%
164 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 5 3 <1%
177 Oregon Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 4 3 1%
186 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 4 4 <1%
 
59 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 6 2 4%
60 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 5 3 3%
86 TCU Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 5 2 2%
97 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 6 2 2%
98 Utah Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 6 2 2%
103 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 6 2 2%
 
55 Villanova Big EastBig East $MWP$ 6 1 11%
108 Creighton Big EastBig East $MWP$ 4 3 6%
114 Georgetown Big EastBig East $MWP$ 5 2 6%
125 Xavier Big EastBig East $MWP$ 6 3 5%
132 Providence Big EastBig East $MWP$ 4 4 4%
152 DePaul Big EastBig East $MWP$ 5 2 4%
211 Marquette Big EastBig East $MWP$ 4 4 1%
 
155 Winthrop Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 4 4 19%
235 Charleston Southern Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 5 4 9%
244 PresbyterianPresbyter. Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 5 5 8%
245 S. Carolina Upstate Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 4 5 8%
275 Longwood Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 4 5 6%
279 N.C. Asheville Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 3 4 5%
334 Radford Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 3 6 3%
348 Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb Big SouthBig South $MWP$ 0 9 <1%
 
84 UC Davis Big WestBig West $MWP$ 5 2 14%
107 UCSB Big WestBig West $MWP$ 6 2 12%
151 Hawai'i Big WestBig West $MWP$ 6 2 10%
185 UC Irvine Big WestBig West $MWP$ 5 4 5%
197 Cal Poly Big WestBig West $MWP$ 4 5 4%
206 CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Big WestBig West $MWP$ 4 4 4%
228 UC Riverside Big WestBig West $MWP$ 4 4 4%
233 CSU Fullerton Big WestBig West $MWP$ 3 5 3%
257 CSU Northridge Big WestBig West $MWP$ 3 4 2%
323 Long Beach St. Big WestBig West $MWP$ 2 6 <1%
 
68 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 5 2 15%
119 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 5 2 11%
130 Western Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 5 2 13%
139 Middle Tenn. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 5 3 11%
171 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 4 2 7%
187 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 5 2 7%
270 FIU Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 3 3 4%
288 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 4 3 3%
306 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 2 5 <1%
315 Jacksonville StateJacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 3 4 1%
332 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 3 4 2%
 
131 Cornell Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 5 2 11%
180 PennsylvaniaPenn. Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 5 3 7%
208 Harvard Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 5 4 5%
282 Brown Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 3 5 1%
307 Princeton Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 3 7 1%
327 Dartmouth Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 2 3 1%
 
52 Miami OH MACMAC $MWP$ 6 0 15%
76 Bowling Green MACMAC $MWP$ 6 2 11%
78 Akron MACMAC $MWP$ 6 2 14%
120 Kent State MACMAC $MWP$ 7 2 9%
140 Eastern Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 5 3 8%
147 Toledo MACMAC $MWP$ 5 3 7%
194 UMass MACMAC $MWP$ 4 3 4%
231 Western Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 3 5 1%
260 Central Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 3 4 1%
264 Northern Illinois MACMAC $MWP$ 3 4 1%
292 Ohio MACMAC $MWP$ 1 6 1%
331 Ball State MACMAC $MWP$ 3 5 <1%
 
58 Northern Iowa Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 7 1 18%
91 Illinois St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 6 2 14%
141 Murray State Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 5 3 9%
167 Bradley Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 4 4 6%
169 Valparaiso Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 5 2 8%
173 Drake Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 5 3 6%
212 Indiana St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 4 4 3%
214 UIC Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 4 3 4%
253 Southern Illinois Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 4 4 2%
300 Evansville Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 3 5 1%
 
61 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 6 2 13%
74 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 6 2 11%
104 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 5 3 4%
106 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 4 3 9%
117 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 6 2 11%
156 San Diego St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 3 6%
168 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 6 3 5%
178 Grand Canyon Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 4 3 5%
232 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 5 2%
241 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 6 1%
248 San José State Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 5 1%
 
50 Missouri SECSEC $MWP$ 8 0 8%
53 Georgia SECSEC $MWP$ 7 1 8%
67 Florida SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 6%
70 Auburn SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 6%
88 Arkansas SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 5%
90 Oklahoma SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 4%
100 Texas A&M SECSEC $MWP$ 6 2 4%
105 South Carolina SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 4%
110 Kentucky SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 3%
121 Ole Miss SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 3%
145 Texas SECSEC $MWP$ 5 2 2%
158 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC $MWP$ 3 4 1%
 
82 Pacific West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 6 2 7%
83 Seattle West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 5 2 7%
99 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 5 2 6%
115 Loyola Marymount West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 7 2 7%
170 Portland West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 5 4 2%
234 Washington St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 3 4 1%
259 Oregon St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 3 5 1%
297 San Diego West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 3 4 <1%
303 Pepperdine West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 3 5 <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny