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Fri Feb 21 11:45 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 16 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 41 and 42 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 110 teams in 11 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 11 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record Probability of Winning
Its Conference Tournament
W L
43 North Carolina ACCACC 78 16 11 5%
53 Pittsburgh ACCACC 75 16 10 3%
69 Stanford ACCACC 71 16 10 2%
82 Florida St. ACCACC 67 16 10 1%
108 Virginia ACCACC 62 13 13 1%
142 Georgia Tech ACCACC 56 13 13 <1%
154 California ACCACC 54 12 14 <1%
156 Syracuse ACCACC 53 11 16 <1%
174 Virginia Tech ACCACC 50 11 15 <1%
178 Notre Dame ACCACC 49 11 15 <1%
197 N.C. State ACCACC 47 10 16 <1%
207 Boston College ACCACC 45 11 15 <1%
264 Miami ACCACC 35 6 20 <1%
 
54 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 18 6 19%
110 Wichita St. American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 16 10 5%
118 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 61 18 9 7%
127 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 59 15 11 5%
166 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 15 11 3%
168 E. Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 15 12 2%
169 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 14 13 2%
202 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 13 14 1%
242 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 12 15 <1%
243 Texas-San Antonio American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 10 16 <1%
273 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 10 17 <1%
281 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 33 11 16 <1%
 
45 VCU Atlantic 10Atl. 10 78 21 5 22%
64 Dayton Atlantic 10Atl. 10 72 18 8 14%
86 St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Atlantic 10Atl. 10 66 18 9 6%
87 Rhode Island Atlantic 10Atl. 10 66 17 8 7%
101 Loyola Chicago Atlantic 10Atl. 10 63 17 9 8%
106 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10Atl. 10 62 15 10 6%
131 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10Atl. 10 58 17 10 4%
140 Davidson Atlantic 10Atl. 10 56 15 11 2%
144 Saint Louis Atlantic 10Atl. 10 56 14 12 4%
199 La Salle Atlantic 10Atl. 10 47 12 14 1%
218 Duquesne Atlantic 10Atl. 10 42 11 15 1%
222 Fordham Atlantic 10Atl. 10 42 11 15 <1%
230 UMass Atlantic 10Atl. 10 40 11 16 <1%
240 Richmond Atlantic 10Atl. 10 38 10 17 <1%
 
50 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 76 15 12 1%
52 Indiana Big 10Big 10 76 15 11 1%
70 USC Big 10Big 10 70 14 12 1%
71 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 70 14 12 1%
81 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 67 14 13 <1%
83 Iowa Big 10Big 10 67 14 12 <1%
88 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 65 13 14 <1%
107 Washington Big 10Big 10 62 13 13 <1%
112 Penn State Big 10Big 10 62 14 13 <1%
 
44 Baylor Big 12Big 12 78 16 10 4%
47 BYU Big 12Big 12 78 18 8 5%
55 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 75 15 10 3%
56 TCU Big 12Big 12 74 15 11 3%
75 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 68 15 11 1%
76 Utah Big 12Big 12 68 15 11 1%
85 UCF Big 12Big 12 67 13 13 1%
89 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 65 13 13 1%
92 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 64 12 14 1%
119 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 61 13 13 <1%
158 Colorado Big 12Big 12 53 10 15 <1%
 
51 UConn Big EastBig East 76 18 8 11%
60 Xavier Big EastBig East 73 17 10 7%
96 Georgetown Big EastBig East 63 16 10 3%
103 Villanova Big EastBig East 63 15 12 3%
132 Butler Big EastBig East 58 12 14 1%
148 Providence Big EastBig East 55 12 15 1%
203 DePaul Big EastBig East 46 11 16 <1%
256 Seton Hall Big EastBig East 36 7 19 <1%
 
42 UC San Diego Big WestBig West 79 23 4 36%
93 UC Riverside Big WestBig West 64 18 10 10%
102 CSU Northridge Big WestBig West 63 19 7 9%
157 UCSB Big WestBig West 53 17 10 3%
170 UC Davis Big WestBig West 50 15 12 2%
198 Hawai'i Big WestBig West 47 14 12 1%
233 Cal Poly Big WestBig West 40 10 17 <1%
239 CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Big WestBig West 39 12 16 <1%
323 Long Beach St. Big WestBig West 24 7 20 <1%
 
58 Bradley Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 74 21 7 22%
77 Northern Iowa Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 68 19 9 15%
98 Belmont Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 63 18 10 10%
130 Illinois St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 58 16 12 5%
150 UIC Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 55 16 12 4%
159 Murray State Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 52 14 14 3%
206 Southern Illinois Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 45 12 16 1%
211 Indiana St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 44 13 15 1%
235 Evansville Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 39 11 17 1%
238 Valparaiso Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 39 12 16 1%
291 Missouri St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 31 9 19 <1%
 
61 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West 73 18 8 11%
68 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 71 17 9 9%
114 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 62 15 11 3%
117 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 61 14 12 3%
193 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 48 12 15 1%
209 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 44 12 16 <1%
316 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West 26 5 22 <1%
336 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 18 3 23 <1%
 
46 Georgia SECSEC 78 16 10 1%
49 Oklahoma SECSEC 76 16 10 <1%
57 Texas SECSEC 74 16 10 <1%
59 Arkansas SECSEC 74 15 11 <1%
80 LSU SECSEC 67 14 12 <1%
129 South Carolina SECSEC 59 10 16 <1%
 
48 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast 77 22 7 17%
65 Santa Clara West CoastWest Coast 71 18 10 10%
84 Oregon St. West CoastWest Coast 67 19 9 5%
104 Washington St. West CoastWest Coast 63 16 12 3%
153 Loyola Marymount West CoastWest Coast 54 15 13 1%
250 Portland West CoastWest Coast 37 10 17 <1%
269 Pepperdine West CoastWest Coast 35 10 18 <1%
300 Pacific West CoastWest Coast 29 9 21 <1%
344 San Diego West CoastWest Coast 14 4 24 <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny