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Wed Feb 18 10:30 pm

NCAA Basketball - Week 16 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 43 and 44 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 130 teams in 13 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 13 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record Probability of Winning
Its Conference Tournament
W L
58 California ACCACC $MWP$ 18 8 2%
62 Virginia Tech ACCACC $MWP$ 17 10 1%
67 Stanford ACCACC $MWP$ 16 10 1%
78 Wake Forest ACCACC $MWP$ 14 12 1%
83 Syracuse ACCACC $MWP$ 15 12 1%
105 Florida St. ACCACC $MWP$ 13 13 <1%
132 Notre Dame ACCACC $MWP$ 12 14 <1%
211 Georgia Tech ACCACC $MWP$ 11 15 <1%
213 Pittsburgh ACCACC $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
241 Boston College ACCACC $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
 
53 George Mason Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 21 6 14%
74 Dayton Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 17 9 9%
99 Davidson Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 10 4%
104 Rhode Island Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 15 11 3%
113 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 10 4%
117 Duquesne Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 10 4%
135 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 15 12 2%
156 St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 14 12 1%
171 Richmond Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 14 13 1%
205 Fordham Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 15 12 1%
282 La Salle Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 7 19 <1%
323 Loyola Chicago Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 6 21 <1%
 
46 Indiana Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 17 9 2%
50 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 17 9 2%
60 UCLA Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 17 9 1%
94 Washington Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 13 13 <1%
147 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 12 14 <1%
164 Maryland Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 10 14 <1%
168 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 11 15 <1%
172 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 10 16 <1%
193 Penn State Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 11 16 <1%
215 Oregon Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
 
63 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 16 9 1%
64 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 16 9 1%
65 TCU Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 16 10 1%
72 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 14 12 1%
84 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 14 12 <1%
91 Colorado Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 14 12 <1%
96 Baylor Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 13 13 <1%
159 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 11 15 <1%
209 Utah Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 9 16 <1%
 
52 Seton Hall Big EastBig East $MWP$ 18 8 9%
82 Creighton Big EastBig East $MWP$ 14 13 3%
103 Butler Big EastBig East $MWP$ 14 13 1%
123 Georgetown Big EastBig East $MWP$ 13 13 1%
126 Xavier Big EastBig East $MWP$ 13 13 1%
144 DePaul Big EastBig East $MWP$ 13 12 1%
154 Providence Big EastBig East $MWP$ 11 15 1%
229 Marquette Big EastBig East $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
 
81 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 18 8 20%
162 Western Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 15 11 9%
188 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 15 11 6%
200 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 15 11 6%
226 Middle Tenn. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 12 14 4%
232 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 12 13 2%
237 Jacksonville StateJacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 13 13 4%
238 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 13 13 3%
243 FIU Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 12 13 1%
278 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
283 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA $MWP$ 10 16 1%
 
142 Columbia Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 15 9 6%
146 PennsylvaniaPenn. Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 13 10 16%
149 Harvard Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 14 10 14%
189 Cornell Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 12 11 7%
247 Dartmouth Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 10 13 1%
289 Princeton Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 8 17 <1%
311 Brown Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 8 15 <1%
 
49 Akron MACMAC $MWP$ 21 5 21%
66 Kent State MACMAC $MWP$ 20 7 16%
165 UMass MACMAC $MWP$ 15 12 4%
169 Bowling Green MACMAC $MWP$ 16 11 4%
176 Buffalo MACMAC $MWP$ 15 11 3%
183 Toledo MACMAC $MWP$ 13 13 4%
201 Ohio MACMAC $MWP$ 14 13 3%
268 Eastern Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 10 17 <1%
274 Western Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 9 17 <1%
294 Northern Illinois MACMAC $MWP$ 9 16 <1%
318 Central Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 8 18 <1%
338 Ball State MACMAC $MWP$ 8 18 <1%
 
76 Murray State Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 19 9 16%
88 Northern Iowa Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 18 10 13%
101 Bradley Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 18 10 11%
116 Illinois St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 17 10 8%
157 UIC Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 16 12 7%
187 Valparaiso Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 15 13 4%
199 Southern Illinois Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 13 15 2%
259 Drake Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 12 17 1%
286 Indiana St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 10 18 <1%
340 Evansville Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 6 21 <1%
 
48 San Diego St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 18 7 16%
69 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 15 10 6%
71 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 16 9 9%
73 Grand Canyon Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 17 9 9%
109 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 15 10 3%
124 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 13 12 3%
136 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 14 12 2%
212 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 12 14 1%
287 San José State Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 7 19 <1%
348 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 23 <1%
 
44 Kentucky SECSEC $MWP$ 17 9 5%
47 Georgia SECSEC $MWP$ 18 8 3%
55 Texas A&M SECSEC $MWP$ 18 8 4%
56 Auburn SECSEC $MWP$ 14 11 3%
57 Missouri SECSEC $MWP$ 17 8 3%
59 Texas SECSEC $MWP$ 16 9 3%
110 Oklahoma SECSEC $MWP$ 13 13 <1%
115 LSU SECSEC $MWP$ 14 12 <1%
121 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC $MWP$ 12 13 <1%
170 Ole Miss SECSEC $MWP$ 11 15 <1%
198 South Carolina SECSEC $MWP$ 11 15 <1%
 
51 McNeese SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 22 5 39%
184 UT-Rio Grande Valley SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 15 12 6%
219 New Orleans SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 12 15 3%
228 Texas A&M C.C. SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 14 13 3%
251 Nicholls St. SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 11 16 2%
258 Lamar SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 12 15 1%
271 East Texas A&M SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 11 17 <1%
303 Houston Christian SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 10 17 <1%
315 Incarnate Word SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 10 17 <1%
317 SE Louisiana SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 8 19 <1%
327 Northwestern St.NWestrn St SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 8 19 <1%
 
122 Pacific West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 17 11 2%
130 Seattle West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 16 11 1%
143 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 15 12 1%
173 Oregon St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 14 14 1%
216 Loyola Marymount West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 13 15 <1%
218 Portland West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 12 15 <1%
222 Washington St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 11 16 <1%
262 San Diego West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 11 17 <1%
328 Pepperdine West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 7 20 <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny