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NCAA Basketball Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Where will your team be seeded in the NCAA Tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Seedings Probabilities table present the probability that a team obtains different seedings. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Rank Team Conference Record  NCAA Tournament Seedings
W L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Tourn.
1 Kentucky SEC 21 0 95% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 Kansas Big 12 18 3 79% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 Virginia ACC 19 1 73% 23% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 Villanova Big East 19 2 38% 41% 15% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5 Wisconsin Big 10 19 2 35% 44% 16% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6 Arizona PAC 12 20 2 27% 48% 19% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7 Duke ACC 18 3 27% 44% 20% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
8 Gonzaga West Coast 22 1 6% 48% 34% 9% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 Louisville ACC 18 3 9% 27% 31% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 North Carolina ACC 17 5 3% 19% 32% 23% 12% 7% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 West Virginia Big 12 18 3 3% 15% 24% 22% 15% 9% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 VCU Atlantic 10 17 4 <1% 12% 29% 26% 16% 9% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 Notre Dame ACC 20 3 2% 13% 26% 24% 17% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 Iowa St. Big 12 16 4 2% 13% 23% 21% 15% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 Maryland Big 10 18 4 1% 9% 21% 23% 17% 11% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
16 Georgetown Big East 15 5 <1% 4% 17% 20% 19% 15% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
17 Baylor Big 12 16 5 <1% 5% 14% 19% 18% 14% 11% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
18 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 20 2 <1% 1% 10% 24% 23% 17% 11% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
19 Utah PAC 12 16 4 <1% 3% 11% 17% 17% 14% 11% 9% 6% 5% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
20 Butler Big East 15 6 <1% 2% 8% 15% 16% 15% 13% 10% 7% 5% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
21 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 18 3 <1% <1% 3% 13% 18% 18% 15% 12% 8% 5% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
22 Oklahoma Big 12 14 7 <1% 1% 5% 10% 13% 14% 13% 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
23 Providence Big East 15 6 <1% 1% 5% 10% 13% 14% 13% 12% 10% 7% 6% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
24 Arkansas SEC 16 5 <1% 1% 4% 9% 12% 14% 14% 12% 9% 8% 5% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 10%
25 Indiana Big 10 16 6 <1% 1% 4% 8% 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 7% 6% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 12%
26 Ohio St. Big 10 17 5 <1% 1% 4% 9% 12% 13% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 12%
27 Texas A&M SEC 15 5 <1% <1% 3% 7% 11% 12% 12% 11% 10% 8% 7% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 15%
28 Southern Methodist American Athletic 18 4 <1% <1% 2% 7% 11% 13% 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 12%
29 LSU SEC 16 5 <1% <1% 3% 7% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10% 8% 7% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 16%
30 Seton Hall Big East 15 6 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9% 11% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 14%
31 Texas Big 12 14 7 <1% <1% 2% 6% 8% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 7% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 19%
32 Georgia SEC 14 6 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 23%
33 Dayton Atlantic 10 16 4 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 9% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 22%
34 Stanford PAC 12 15 6 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 25%
35 Colorado St. Mountain West 18 3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6% 10% 12% 13% 11% 11% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 22%
36 Cincinnati American Athletic 15 5 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 7% 10% 11% 11% 10% 9% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% 28%
37 Xavier Big East 14 8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 10% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 31%
38 Oklahoma St. Big 12 14 7 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 34%
39 Michigan St. Big 10 14 7 <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 7% 8% 10% 9% 9% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 35%
40 San Diego St. Mountain West 17 5 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 9% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% 35%
41 Miami ACC 14 6 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 39%
42 Tennessee SEC 13 7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 45%
43 Old Dominion Conference USA 17 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 5% 9% 10% 11% 11% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% 41%
44 St. John's Big East 14 7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 49%
45 N.C. State ACC 14 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 8% 9% 10% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% 51%
46 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 16 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% 55%
47 St. Mary's West Coast 17 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% 57%
Cutline - Click Here to View 97 Line Movers
48 Ole Miss SEC 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 61%
49 Iowa Big 10 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 61%
50 Syracuse ACC 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 65%
51 Oregon PAC 12 15 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 65%
52 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 15 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% 67%
53 Purdue Big 10 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% 69%
54 Davidson Atlantic 10 14 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 68%
55 Temple American Athletic 15 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% 69%
56 Clemson ACC 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 71%
57 Washington PAC 12 13 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 70%
58 Florida SEC 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 73%
59 Tulsa American Athletic 16 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% 69%
60 Alabama SEC 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 75%
61 BYU West Coast 16 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% 76%
62 Illinois Big 10 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 76%
63 Michigan Big 10 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 76%
64 UCLA PAC 12 13 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% 78%
65 Wyoming Mountain West 18 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% 76%
66 Stephen F. Austin Southland 18 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 16% 20% 5% 1% <1% 49%
67 Murray St. Ohio Valley 19 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 16% 21% 3% <1% <1% 56%
68 Kansas St. Big 12 12 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 86%
69 Wofford Southern 18 5 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 14% 20% 4% <1% <1% 56%
70 Boise St. Mountain West 15 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 3% <1% <1% <1% 80%
71 Oregon St. PAC 12 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% 83%
72 Pittsburgh ACC 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 86%
73 TCU Big 12 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 85%
74 Green Bay Horizon 17 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 14% 15% 2% <1% <1% 63%
75 Valparaiso Horizon 20 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 3% 13% 15% 2% <1% <1% 65%
76 Buffalo MAC 14 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 7% 7% 1% <1% <1% 77%
77 Penn State Big 10 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 92%
78 Minnesota Big 10 14 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 93%
79 South Carolina SEC 11 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 92%
80 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% <1% <1% <1% 92%
81 Western Kentucky Conference USA 15 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 6% 8% 2% <1% <1% 82%
82 Evansville Missouri Valley 16 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 4% 1% <1% <1% 90%
83 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 17 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 6% 8% 2% <1% <1% 81%
84 Iona Metro Atlantic 16 6 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 19% 11% 2% <1% 63%
85 Richmond Atlantic 10 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 2% <1% <1% <1% 93%
86 Connecticut American Athletic 11 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% 91%
87 UC Davis Big West 16 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 15% 7% 1% <1% 71%
88 Memphis American Athletic 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 3% 1% <1% <1% 91%
89 Nebraska Big 10 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 97%
90 Yale Ivy League 14 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 32% 27% 4% <1% 33%
91 New Mexico Mountain West 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 1% <1% <1% 90%
92 UTEP Conference USA 14 7 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 7% 2% <1% <1% 86%
93 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 2% <1% <1% 92%
94 Kent State MAC 15 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 4% <1% <1% 81%
95 Eastern Washington Big Sky 16 5 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 15% 4% <1% 61%
96 High Point Big South 17 5 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 13% 3% <1% 68%
97 La Salle Atlantic 10 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 97%
98 UNLV Mountain West 13 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 3% 1% <1% <1% 93%
99 Long Beach St. Big West 12 10 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 8% 2% <1% 78%
100 Harvard Ivy League 13 5 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 10% 1% <1% 74%
101 Colorado PAC 12 11 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 98%
102 California PAC 12 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 98%
103 Akron MAC 14 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 4% 1% <1% 85%
104 Toledo MAC 13 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 3% <1% <1% 88%
105 Georgia Tech ACC 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
106 Vanderbilt SEC 11 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
107 Arizona St. PAC 12 11 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 98%
108 DePaul Big East 11 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 98%
109 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 13 7 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 13% 5% 1% 73%
110 Pepperdine West Coast 14 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 2% <1% <1% 94%
111 Central Michigan MAC 14 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 3% <1% <1% 88%
112 Florida St. ACC 11 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
113 Marquette Big East 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
114 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 15 8 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 14% 6% 1% 74%
115 Bowling Green MAC 13 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 3% <1% <1% 88%
116 Georgia St. Sunbelt 15 7 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 16% 8% 1% 67%
117 Sam Houston St. Southland 16 5 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 16% 8% 1% 67%
118 Belmont Ohio Valley 15 7 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 13% 5% 1% 75%
119 Texas Tech Big 12 11 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
120 N.C. Central Mideastern 15 6 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 18% 17% 3% 60%
121 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 15 4 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 13% 10% 3% 70%
122 Rutgers Big 10 10 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
123 Wake Forest ACC 10 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
124 South Dakota St. Summit 17 7 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 14% 4% 68%
125 UC Irvine Big West 13 8 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 8% 4% 1% 83%
126 Boston College ACC 9 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
127 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 13 9 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% <1% 97%
128 Northwestern Big 10 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
129 Washington St. PAC 12 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
130 Western Michigan MAC 12 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 2% 1% <1% 94%
131 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 16 7 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 12% 21% 10% 56%
132 Auburn SEC 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
133 Creighton Big East 9 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
134 Rider Metro Atlantic 14 8 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 7% 9% 3% 80%
135 Lafayette Patriot League 13 8 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 9% 3% 78%
136 Radford Big South 16 7 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 8% 2% 81%
137 Hawaii Big West 15 7 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 4% 2% 87%
138 Tulane American Athletic 13 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 97%
139 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 12 9 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 1% <1% 94%
140 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 11 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
141 Chattanooga Southern 15 8 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 8% 4% 81%
142 Sacramento St. Big Sky 15 6 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 10% 5% 76%
143 Cleveland St. Horizon 13 10 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 5% 5% 2% 87%
144 Portland West Coast 12 10 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 98%
145 Albany America East 14 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 5% 16% 16% 62%
146 Utah St. Mountain West 12 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% <1% 96%
147 Stony Brook America East 15 9 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 13% 10% 73%
148 San Diego West Coast 12 11 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 98%
149 USC PAC 12 9 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
150 Eastern Michigan MAC 14 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 97%
151 James Madison Colonial Athletic 13 10 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 7% 4% 86%
152 E. Tennessee St. Southern 13 8 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 4% 7% 4% 84%
153 Canisius Metro Atlantic 12 8 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 7% 5% 85%
154 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 13 9 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 5% 2% 91%
155 Gardner-Webb Big South 14 9 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 6% 4% 86%
156 Santa Clara West Coast 11 12 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 98%
157 Incarnate Word Southland 12 5 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
158 Army Patriot League 13 7 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 8% 5% 84%
159 Mississippi St. SEC 10 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
160 UAB Conference USA 11 11 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 2% 1% 95%
161 Missouri SEC 7 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
162 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 13 8 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 3% 90%
163 Columbia Ivy League 10 8 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 97%
164 Norfolk St. Mideastern 15 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 8% 13% 78%
165 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 9 11 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
166 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 14 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 8% 17% 74%
167 Coastal Carolina Big South 15 7 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 6% 5% 87%
168 Virginia Tech ACC 9 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
169 New Mexico St. WAC 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 10% 36% 54%
170 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 14 9 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 6% 89%
171 American Patriot League 11 10 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 6% 7% 86%
172 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 12 9 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 6% 88%
173 Texas Southern Southwestern 10 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 29% 63%
174 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 12 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 6% 12% 81%
175 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 12 9 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 5% 88%
176 Oakland Horizon 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 4% 3% 92%
177 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 16 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 8% 15% 77%
178 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 11 11 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 98%
179 North Dakota St. Summit 13 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 6% 13% 81%
180 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 12 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 4% 3% 92%
181 LA Monroe Sunbelt 14 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 5% 8% 86%
182 Charleston Southern Big South 13 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 4% 6% 89%
183 Charlotte Conference USA 9 12 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 98%
184 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 13 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 4% 13% 83%
185 Bucknell Patriot League 12 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 4% 11% 85%
186 Wright St. Horizon 11 11 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 95%
187 Lehigh Patriot League 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 4% 7% 89%
188 UCSB Big West 9 11 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 93%
189 Cal Poly Big West 10 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 93%
190 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 10 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 12% 85%
191 Oral Roberts Summit 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 12% 85%
192 Robert Morris Northeast 11 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 15% 83%
193 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 8% 90%
194 Mercer Southern 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 8% 90%
195 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 11 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 6% 92%
196 New Jersey Tech Independent 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
197 North Florida Atlantic Sun 14 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 22% 77%
198 Alabama St. Southwestern 11 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 29% 70%
199 George Mason Atlantic 10 7 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
200 UCF American Athletic 9 12 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
201 Cornell Ivy League 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
202 Detroit Horizon 11 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 2% 97%
203 Northwestern St. Southland 10 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 7% 92%
204 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 9 12 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
205 San Francisco West Coast 9 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
206 Bryant Northeast 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 13% 86%
207 Montana Big Sky 11 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 9% 90%
208 Fresno St. Mountain West 9 12 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
209 FIU Conference USA 10 10 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 98%
210 Vermont America East 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 14% 85%
211 New Hampshire America East 13 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 13% 87%
212 Pacific West Coast 10 12 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
213 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 99%
214 Northern Illinois MAC 8 11 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
215 Ohio MAC 7 12 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
216 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 12 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
217 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
218 Northern Colorado Big Sky 11 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 8% 92%
219 Loyola-MD Patriot League 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 94%
220 Loyola Marymount West Coast 7 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
221 UC Riverside Big West 10 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 96%
222 Western Carolina Southern 11 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 5% 95%
223 Colgate Patriot League 10 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 8% 92%
224 Princeton Ivy League 9 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 98%
225 Northern Arizona Big Sky 10 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 94%
226 Delaware St. Mideastern 10 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 9% 91%
227 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
228 N.C. Asheville Big South 11 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 94%
229 Winthrop Big South 11 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
230 Houston American Athletic 8 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
231 North Texas Conference USA 9 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 99%
232 Denver Summit 9 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 8% 92%
233 South Florida American Athletic 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
234 Portland St. Big Sky 11 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
235 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 11 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 95%
236 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 8 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
237 Hartford America East 11 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 93%
238 Dartmouth Ivy League 8 10 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
239 Duquesne Atlantic 10 7 13 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
240 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 10 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 97%
241 Towson Colonial Athletic 11 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 4% 96%
242 Holy Cross Patriot League 7 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 97%
243 Air Force Mountain West 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
244 Grand Canyon WAC 12 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
245 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 98%
246 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 9 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
247 IPFW Summit 11 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 93%
248 Lamar Southland 11 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
249 E. Carolina American Athletic 8 12 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
250 Boston U. Patriot League 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 97%
251 Ball State MAC 7 12 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
252 IUPUI Summit 8 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 93%
253 Elon Colonial Athletic 11 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 98%
254 Drake Missouri Valley 6 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
255 Brown Ivy League 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
256 Seattle WAC 10 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 17% 83%
257 Miami OH MAC 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
258 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 10 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 98%
259 Fordham Atlantic 10 5 13 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
260 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 10 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
261 Weber St. Big Sky 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 4% 96%
262 South Dakota Summit 10 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 93%
263 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 9 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
264 Southern Southwestern 10 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 14% 86%
265 Howard Mideastern 11 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 5% 95%
266 CSU Fullerton Big West 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 99%
267 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 9 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
268 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 8 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
269 McNeese St. Southland 8 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
270 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 10 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
271 Idaho Big Sky 8 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 3% 97%
272 Youngstown St. Horizon 10 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
273 Drexel Colonial Athletic 7 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
274 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 98%
275 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 10 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 93%
276 Pennsylvania Ivy League 6 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
277 Siena Metro Atlantic 8 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
278 VMI Southern 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
279 Navy Patriot League 7 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
280 Samford Southern 10 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
281 Bradley Missouri Valley 7 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
282 Western Illinois Summit 8 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 4% 96%
283 UMass-Lowell America East 9 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
284 Utah Valley WAC 7 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 11% 89%
285 Nevada Mountain West 6 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
286 Sacred Heart Northeast 8 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
287 North Dakota Big Sky 7 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
288 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 98%
289 Houston Baptist Southland 9 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
290 Wagner Northeast 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
291 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 9 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
292 UMKC WAC 9 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 11% 89%
293 UALR Sunbelt 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
294 Charleston Colonial Athletic 6 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
295 Rice Conference USA 6 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
296 CSU Northridge Big West 6 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
297 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 7 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8% 92%
298 Abilene Christian Southland 8 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
299 Furman Southern 7 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
300 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 8 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
301 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 7 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
302 New Orleans Southland 6 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
303 Marshall Conference USA 6 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
304 Nebraska Omaha Summit 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
305 Troy Sunbelt 8 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
306 Southern Miss Conference USA 6 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
307 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 9 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
308 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 6 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
309 Citadel Southern 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
310 SE Louisiana Southland 5 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
311 Hampton Mideastern 8 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 98%
312 Campbell Big South 8 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
313 Delaware Colonial Athletic 5 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
314 South Alabama Sunbelt 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
315 TX Pan American WAC 8 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 6% 94%
316 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 8 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 6% 94%
317 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
318 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 7 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 98%
319 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 6 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 4% 96%
320 Ill. Chicago Horizon 5 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
321 Longwood Big South 7 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
322 Savannah St. Mideastern 4 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
323 Nicholls St. Southland 5 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
324 Presbyterian Big South 7 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
325 Southern Utah Big Sky 5 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
326 Alabama A&M Southwestern 5 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
327 Stetson Atlantic Sun 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
328 N.C. Greensboro Southern 6 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
329 Jackson St. Southwestern 5 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 98%
330 N.C. A&T Mideastern 6 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
331 Montana St. Big Sky 4 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
332 Chicago St. WAC 5 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
333 Niagara Metro Atlantic 3 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
334 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 5 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
335 Morgan St. Mideastern 4 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
336 San Jose St. Mountain West 2 19 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
337 Coppin St. Mideastern 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
338 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
339 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 7 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
340 Idaho St. Big Sky 5 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
341 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 3 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
342 Binghamton America East 4 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
343 Marist Metro Atlantic 3 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
344 Liberty Big South 6 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
345 Maine America East 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
346 UMBC America East 3 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
347 Alcorn St. Southwestern 3 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
348 Grambling Southwestern 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
349 Central Conn. St. Northeast 3 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
350 Central Arkansas Southland 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
351 Florida A&M Mideastern 0 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot