2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

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NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
	Record		NCAA Basketball National Champions	Championship Game Participate	Final Four	Elite Eight	Sweet Sixteen	Round 2	Round 1
Team	W	L	NCAA Basketball National Champions	Championship Game Participate	Final Four	Elite Eight	Sweet Sixteen	Round 2	Round 1
Florida	33	4	20%	37%	66%	100%	^	^	^
Alabama	28	8	14%	28%	50%	100%	^	^	^
Duke	34	3	14%	26%	50%	100%	^	^	^
Auburn	30	5	14%	26%	42%	65%	100%	^	^
Houston	32	4	9%	18%	36%	64%	100%	^	^
Tennessee	29	7	7%	15%	30%	59%	100%	^	^
Michigan St.	29	6	6%	13%	27%	61%	100%	^	^
Texas Tech	28	8	5%	12%	34%	100%	^	^	^
Michigan	27	9	3%	8%	18%	35%	100%	^	^
Kentucky	24	11	3%	7%	17%	41%	100%	^	^
Purdue	24	11	3%	6%	16%	36%	100%	^	^
Ole Miss	24	11	2%	5%	14%	39%	100%	^	^
Maryland	27	9	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
BYU	26	10	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Arizona	24	12	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Arkansas	22	14	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Drake	31	4	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
St. John's	31	5	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
St. Mary's	29	6	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
McNeese	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
New Mexico	27	8	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Wisconsin	27	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Colorado St.	26	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Gonzaga	26	9	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Creighton	25	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Oregon	25	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Iowa St.	24	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
UConn	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Texas A&M	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
UCLA	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Illinois	22	13	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Baylor	20	15	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
UC San Diego	30	5	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
High Point	29	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Memphis	29	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Akron	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Liberty	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
VCU	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Clemson	27	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Louisville	27	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
UNC Wilmington	27	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Grand Canyon	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Robert Morris	26	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Utah St.	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Lipscomb	25	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Montana	25	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Norfolk St.	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Bryant	23	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Marquette	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Troy	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Missouri	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Mount St. Mary's	22	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Nebraska Omaha	22	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
North Carolina	22	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Yale	22	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Kansas	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Mississippi St.Miss. St.	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Xavier	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Georgia	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Oklahoma	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Vanderbilt	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Alabama St.	19	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Wofford	19	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
UC Irvine	28	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bradley	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
George Mason	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Conn.	25	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Furman	25	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miami OH	25	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Colorado	25	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah Valley	25	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Arkansas St.	24	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boise St.	24	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Charleston	24	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
ChattanoogaChattan.	24	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Alabama	24	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San Francisco	24	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Thomas	24	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Texas	23	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SMU	23	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UAB	23	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Winthrop	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
American	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Belmont	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU Northridge	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dayton	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacksonville StateJacksnvlle St.	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kent State	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola Chicago	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Middle Tenn.	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Samford	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Towson	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cleveland St.	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Geo. Washington	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Asheville	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Dakota St.	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SE Missouri St.	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San Diego St.	21	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Alabama	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Joseph's	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC Riverside	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UCSB	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Vermont	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wake Forest	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wis. Milwaukee	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Youngstown St.	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
James Madison	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lamar	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Louisiana Tech	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Maine	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Marist	20	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Marshall	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Greensboro	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicholls St.	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Iowa	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oregon St.	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Quinnipiac	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Radford	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
S. Carolina St.	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Santa Clara	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Dakota St.	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stanford	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas A&M C.C.	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
E. Carolina	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
E. Tennessee St.	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fort Wayne	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Illinois St.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Indiana	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
JacksonvilleJack.ville	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kennesaw St.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Portland St.	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Queens U.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Saint Louis	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Dakota	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas	19	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tulane	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UALR	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Villanova	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Washington St.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wichita St.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bucknell	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cincinnati	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cornell	18	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Drexel	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Kentucky	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fla Gulf Coast	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Florida Atlantic	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Longwood	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Merrimack	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Arizona	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Princeton	18	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rhode Island	18	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Toledo	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UIC	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UNLV	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UTEP	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
West Virginia	18	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Albany	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Appalachian St.App.St.	17	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bethune-CookmanBethn-Ckmn	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
California Baptist	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Davidson	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Elon	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Florida St.	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgetown	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia Southern	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia Tech	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hampton	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Incarnate Word	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Iona	17	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Iowa	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola Marymount	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Manhattan	17	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nebraska	17	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nevada	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Mexico St.	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
NortheasternN. Eastern	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Kentucky	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
NorthwesternN. Western	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ohio St.	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pittsburgh	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SE Louisiana	17	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Temple	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tennessee St.	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UCF	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMass-LowellUMA-Lowell	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Kentucky	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
William & Mary	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Abilene Christian	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Army	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boston U.	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cal Poly	16	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Delaware	16	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Delaware St.	16	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Michigan	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jackson St.	16	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kansas St.	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lindenwood	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Long Island U.	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Murray State	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northwestern St.NWestrn St	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oakland	16	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ohio	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Penn State	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
TCU	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas State	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
USC	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UT-Rio Grande Valley	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Binghamton	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Campbell	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hawai'i	15	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hofstra	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Idaho St.	15	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mercyhurst	15	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Minnesota	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Montana St.	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Morehead St.	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Navy	15	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Florida	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Notre Dame	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oklahoma St.	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rutgers	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sacred Heart	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San José State	15	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stonehill	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tennessee Tech	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas Southern	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC Davis	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
VMI	15	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Valparaiso	15	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Virginia	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wright St.	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Austin Peay	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ball State	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bowling Green	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brown	14	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Butler	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
California	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Michigan	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Colgate	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Colorado	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dartmouth	14	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
DePaul	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Florida A&M	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia St.	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Idaho	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Indiana St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
LSU	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
La Salle	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mercer	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Morgan St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Central	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
PresbyterianPresbyter.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rider	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Seattle	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Siena	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Illinois	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Francis	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stephen F. Austin	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Syracuse	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tenn-MartinTN-Martin	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wagner	14	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Arizona St.	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Duquesne	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fair. Dickinson	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Holy Cross	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lafayette	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Monmouth	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Old Dominion	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pepperdine	13	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rice	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sam Houston	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Florida	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tulsa	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMBC	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMKC	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UT Arlington	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Virginia Tech	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Washington	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Alcorn St.	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boston College	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Columbia	12	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Illinois	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fairfield	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fordham	12	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Harvard	12	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Houston Christian	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Howard	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
LA Lafayette	12	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola-MD	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. State	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Dakota	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Portland	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Providence	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Carolina	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Utah	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Peter's	12	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tarleton St.	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas-San Antonio	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMass	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Weber St.	12	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Illinois	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Michigan	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wyoming	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Charlotte	11	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Denver	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Evansville	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb	11	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Grambling	11	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lehigh	11	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Niagara	11	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Miss	11	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Alabama A&M	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Charleston Southern	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Coastal Carolina	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Washington	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
FIU	10	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
IU Indy	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Richmond	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Indiana	10	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Buffalo	9	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Arkansas	9	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Le Moyne	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Missouri St.	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pacific	9	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Detroit	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Hampshire	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
PennsylvaniaPenn.	8	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stetson	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stony Brook	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Carolina	8	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Long Beach St.	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miami	7	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N. Carolina A&T	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oral Roberts	7	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sacramento St.	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Seton Hall	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UL Monroe	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah Tech	7	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
AR Pine Bluff	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU Fullerton	6	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Coppin St.	6	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fresno St.	6	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
MD Eastern Shore	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
NJIT	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Illinois	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
S. Carolina Upstate	6	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San Diego	6	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
West Georgia	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bellarmine	5	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Citadel	5	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Prairie View A&M	5	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas A&M-CommerceTX A&M-Comm	5	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Air Force	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Chicago St.	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Green Bay	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Orleans	4	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Canisius	3	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miss. Valley St.	3	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

Notes
^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities