PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Apr 3 2:00 am

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your college team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Basketball
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Final Four Elite Eight Sweet Sixteen Round 2 Round 1
Team W L
Villanova 36 4 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Michigan 33 8 X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Loyola-Chicago 32 6 X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
Kansas 31 8 X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
Duke 29 8 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Texas Tech 27 10 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Kansas St. 25 12 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Florida St. 23 12 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Gonzaga 32 5 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Purdue 30 7 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Nevada 29 8 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Kentucky 26 11 X X X X 100% ^ ^
West Virginia 26 11 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Clemson 25 10 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Syracuse 22 14 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Texas A&M 22 13 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Cincinnati 31 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Michigan St. 30 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Xavier 29 6 X X X X X 100% ^
Buffalo 27 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Houston 27 8 X X X X X 100% ^
Auburn 26 8 X X X X X 100% ^
North Carolina 26 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Rhode Island 26 8 X X X X X 100% ^
TennesseeTenn. 26 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Marshall 25 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Ohio St. 25 9 X X X X X 100% ^
UMBC 25 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Seton Hall 22 12 X X X X X 100% ^
Butler 21 14 X X X X X 100% ^
Florida 21 13 X X X X X 100% ^
Alabama 20 16 X X X X X 100% ^
Virginia 31 3 X X X X X X 100%
New Mexico St. 28 6 X X X X X X 100%
South Dakota St. 28 7 X X X X X X 100%
Stephen F. Austin 28 7 X X X X X X 100%
Arizona 27 8 X X X X X X 100%
N.C. GreensboroN.C. Greens-boro 27 8 X X X X X X 100%
Charleston 26 8 X X X X X X 100%
Montana 26 8 X X X X X X 100%
Murray St. 26 6 X X X X X X 100%
Bucknell 25 10 X X X X X X 100%
St. BonaventureSt. Bonavent. 25 8 X X X X X X 100%
Wichita St. 25 8 X X X X X X 100%
Wright St. 25 10 X X X X X X 100%
Georgia St. 24 11 X X X X X X 100%
PennsylvaniaPenn. 24 9 X X X X X X 100%
Arkansas 23 12 X X X X X X 100%
Lipscomb 23 10 X X X X X X 100%
Miami 22 10 X X X X X X 100%
Radford 22 14 X X X X X X 100%
San Diego St. 22 11 X X X X X X 100%
Creighton 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
Davidson 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
N.C. State 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
ProvidenceProvid. 21 14 X X X X X X 100%
TCU 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
Virginia Tech 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
CSU Fullerton 20 12 X X X X X X 100%
Iona 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
Missouri 20 13 X X X X X X 100%
Texas 19 15 X X X X X X 100%
Oklahoma 18 14 X X X X X X 100%
St. Mary's 28 5 X X X X X X X
LA Lafayette 27 6 X X X X X X X
Vermont 27 7 X X X X X X X
South Dakota 26 8 X X X X X X X
E. Tennessee St.E. Tenn. St. 25 9 X X X X X X X
Old Dominion 25 7 X X X X X X X
BYU 24 10 X X X X X X X
Belmont 24 9 X X X X X X X
Middle Tenn. 24 7 X X X X X X X
Western Kentucky 24 10 X X X X X X X
Boise St. 23 8 X X X X X X X
Fla Gulf Coast 23 11 X X X X X X X
Furman 23 10 X X X X X X X
NortheasternN. Eastern 23 10 X X X X X X X
Toledo 23 11 X X X X X X X
UCSB 23 9 X X X X X X X
USC 23 11 X X X X X X X
Wagner 23 9 X X X X X X X
Albany 22 10 X X X X X X X
Grand Canyon 22 11 X X X X X X X
Idaho 22 9 X X X X X X X
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 22 11 X X X X X X X
Nebraska 22 10 X X X X X X X
Northern Colorado 22 12 X X X X X X X
Northern Kentucky 22 9 X X X X X X X
Oregon 22 12 X X X X X X X
Rider 22 9 X X X X X X X
SE Louisiana 22 11 X X X X X X X
UC Davis 22 10 X X X X X X X
Utah Valley 22 10 X X X X X X X
Canisius 21 11 X X X X X X X
Eastern Michigan 21 12 X X X X X X X
Fresno St. 21 11 X X X X X X X
Georgia Southern 21 12 X X X X X X X
Jacksonville St.Jack.ville St. 21 12 X X X X X X X
Memphis 21 13 X X X X X X X
N.C. Asheville 21 12 X X X X X X X
Nicholls St. 21 11 X X X X X X X
Penn State 21 13 X X X X X X X
Texas Arlington 21 13 X X X X X X X
UCLA 21 11 X X X X X X X
Wofford 21 12 X X X X X X X
Arizona St. 20 11 X X X X X X X
Bradley 20 13 X X X X X X X
Eastern WashingtonEastern Wash. 20 14 X X X X X X X
Liberty 20 14 X X X X X X X
Louisville 20 13 X X X X X X X
N.C. A&T 20 14 X X X X X X X
Navy 20 12 X X X X X X X
Notre Dame 20 14 X X X X X X X
Portland St. 20 13 X X X X X X X
Seattle 20 13 X X X X X X X
Southern Illinois 20 13 X X X X X X X
UAB 20 13 X X X X X X X
UNLV 20 13 X X X X X X X
WashingtonWash. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Weber St. 20 11 X X X X X X X
Wyoming 20 13 X X X X X X X
Ball State 19 13 X X X X X X X
Boston College 19 15 X X X X X X X
Central Michigan 19 14 X X X X X X X
Colgate 19 13 X X X X X X X
Hampton 19 15 X X X X X X X
Hartford 19 13 X X X X X X X
Hofstra 19 12 X X X X X X X
Lamar 19 13 X X X X X X X
Marquette 19 13 X X X X X X X
Maryland 19 13 X X X X X X X
N.C. Central 19 15 X X X X X X X
New Mexico 19 15 X X X X X X X
Niagara 19 13 X X X X X X X
Oakland 19 14 X X X X X X X
Oklahoma St. 19 14 X X X X X X X
Sam Houston St. 19 14 X X X X X X X
Tennessee TechTenn. Tech 19 14 X X X X X X X
Texas-San Antonio 19 14 X X X X X X X
Tulsa 19 12 X X X X X X X
UCF 19 13 X X X X X X X
Utah 19 11 X X X X X X X
William & Mary 19 12 X X X X X X X
Winthrop 19 12 X X X X X X X
Austin Peay 18 14 X X X X X X X
Baylor 18 14 X X X X X X X
Bethune-Cookman 18 14 X X X X X X X
Georgia 18 15 X X X X X X X
Harvard 18 13 X X X X X X X
IPFW 18 14 X X X X X X X
Illinois St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
LIU-Brooklyn 18 16 X X X X X X X
Mercer 18 14 X X X X X X X
Missouri St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Mount St. Mary's 18 14 X X X X X X X
San Diego 18 13 X X X X X X X
San Francisco 18 15 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (PA) 18 12 X X X X X X X
Stanford 18 15 X X X X X X X
Towson 18 14 X X X X X X X
UC Irvine 18 17 X X X X X X X
VCU 18 15 X X X X X X X
Central Arkansas 17 16 X X X X X X X
Colorado 17 15 X X X X X X X
Evansville 17 15 X X X X X X X
Fairfield 17 16 X X X X X X X
Grambling 17 14 X X X X X X X
Hawaii 17 13 X X X X X X X
Ill. Chicago 17 15 X X X X X X X
Kent State 17 17 X X X X X X X
LSU 17 14 X X X X X X X
Louisiana Tech 17 16 X X X X X X X
Saint Louis 17 16 X X X X X X X
South Carolina 17 16 X X X X X X X
Southern Methodist 17 16 X X X X X X X
Temple 17 15 X X X X X X X
Utah St. 17 17 X X X X X X X
Western Michigan 17 15 X X X X X X X
Abilene Christian 16 15 X X X X X X X
Bowling Green 16 16 X X X X X X X
Campbell 16 15 X X X X X X X
Drake 16 16 X X X X X X X
Duquesne 16 16 X X X X X X X
George Mason 16 17 X X X X X X X
Indiana 16 15 X X X X X X X
LA Monroe 16 15 X X X X X X X
Lehigh 16 14 X X X X X X X
Miami OH 16 17 X X X X X X X
Northern Iowa 16 16 X X X X X X X
Oregon St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Prairie View A&M 16 18 X X X X X X X
Robert Morris 16 17 X X X X X X X
Southern Miss 16 18 X X X X X X X
St. John's 16 17 X X X X X X X
St. Joseph's 16 16 X X X X X X X
Troy 16 17 X X X X X X X
Wis. Milwaukee 16 17 X X X X X X X
Yale 16 15 X X X X X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 15 18 X X X X X X X
Boston U. 15 16 X X X X X X X
Charleston Southern 15 16 X X X X X X X
Denver 15 15 X X X X X X X
Geo. WashingtonGeo. Wash. 15 18 X X X X X X X
GeorgetownGeorge-town 15 15 X X X X X X X
JacksonvilleJack.ville 15 18 X X X X X X X
Long Beach St. 15 18 X X X X X X X
Minnesota 15 17 X X X X X X X
New Orleans 15 16 X X X X X X X
North Dakota St. 15 17 X X X X X X X
North Texas 15 17 X X X X X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 15 17 X X X X X X X
Rutgers 15 19 X X X X X X X
Savannah St. 15 17 X X X X X X X
Southern 15 18 X X X X X X X
Tennessee St.Tenn. St. 15 15 X X X X X X X
Texas Southern 15 19 X X X X X X X
Texas St. (SM) 15 18 X X X X X X X
UT-Rio Grande Valley 15 17 X X X X X X X
Valparaiso 15 17 X X X X X X X
Wisconsin 15 18 X X X X X X X
AR Pine Bluff 14 21 X X X X X X X
Akron 14 18 X X X X X X X
Central Conn. St. 14 18 X X X X X X X
Coastal CarolinaCoast. Car. 14 18 X X X X X X X
ConnecticutConnect. 14 18 X X X X X X X
Dayton 14 17 X X X X X X X
Delaware 14 19 X X X X X X X
Elon 14 18 X X X X X X X
FIU 14 18 X X X X X X X
Gardner-Webb 14 18 X X X X X X X
High Point 14 16 X X X X X X X
Idaho St. 14 16 X X X X X X X
Illinois 14 18 X X X X X X X
Iowa 14 19 X X X X X X X
Manhattan 14 17 X X X X X X X
New Jersey Tech 14 16 X X X X X X X
Norfolk St. 14 19 X X X X X X X
North Florida 14 19 X X X X X X X
Ohio 14 17 X X X X X X X
Pacific 14 18 X X X X X X X
SE Missouri St. 14 17 X X X X X X X
South Alabama 14 18 X X X X X X X
St. Peter's 14 18 X X X X X X X
Tulane 14 17 X X X X X X X
Army 13 17 X X X X X X X
Drexel 13 20 X X X X X X X
Fair. Dickinson 13 18 X X X X X X X
Georgia Tech 13 19 X X X X X X X
Green Bay 13 20 X X X X X X X
Indiana St. 13 18 X X X X X X X
Iowa St. 13 18 X X X X X X X
La Salle 13 19 X X X X X X X
MassachusettsMass. 13 20 X X X X X X X
Montana St. 13 19 X X X X X X X
Morgan St. 13 19 X X X X X X X
Northern Illinois 13 19 X X X X X X X
Princeton 13 16 X X X X X X X
Southern Utah 13 19 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (NY) 13 18 X X X X X X X
Stony Brook 13 19 X X X X X X X
Western Carolina 13 19 X X X X X X X
Air Force 12 19 X X X X X X X
Cal St. Bakersfield 12 18 X X X X X X X
Cleveland St. 12 23 X X X X X X X
Cornell 12 16 X X X X X X X
Eastern Illinois 12 19 X X X X X X X
Florida Atlantic 12 19 X X X X X X X
Holy Cross 12 19 X X X X X X X
Jackson St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
McNeese St. 12 17 X X X X X X X
North Dakota 12 20 X X X X X X X
Ole Miss 12 20 X X X X X X X
QuinnipiacQuinnip. 12 21 X X X X X X X
Richmond 12 20 X X X X X X X
Stetson 12 20 X X X X X X X
UMass-Lowell 12 18 X X X X X X X
Vanderbilt 12 20 X X X X X X X
Washington St.Wash. St. 12 19 X X X X X X X
Western Illinois 12 16 X X X X X X X
Alcorn St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Arkansas St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
BinghamtonBingham. 11 20 X X X X X X X
Brown 11 16 X X X X X X X
Citadel 11 21 X X X X X X X
Colorado St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
DePaul 11 20 X X X X X X X
Eastern Kentucky 11 20 X X X X X X X
IUPUI 11 19 X X X X X X X
Loyola MarymountLoyola Marymnt 11 20 X X X X X X X
Monmouth 11 20 X X X X X X X
N.C. WilmingtonN.C. Wilming. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Oral Roberts 11 21 X X X X X X X
PresbyterianPresbyter. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Santa Clara 11 20 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M C.C. 11 18 X X X X X X X
UTEP 11 20 X X X X X X X
Wake Forest 11 20 X X X X X X X
ChattanoogaChattan. 10 23 X X X X X X X
E. Carolina 10 20 X X X X X X X
Howard 10 23 X X X X X X X
James Madison 10 22 X X X X X X X
Kennesaw St. 10 20 X X X X X X X
Lafayette 10 21 X X X X X X X
New Hampshire 10 21 X X X X X X X
Portland 10 22 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina St. 10 22 X X X X X X X
Sacred Heart 10 21 X X X X X X X
Samford 10 22 X X X X X X X
South Florida 10 22 X X X X X X X
Tenn-Martin 10 21 X X X X X X X
UMKC 10 22 X X X X X X X
Cal Poly 9 22 X X X X X X X
Florida A&M 9 25 X X X X X X X
Fordham 9 22 X X X X X X X
Loyola-MD 9 22 X X X X X X X
Nebraska Omaha 9 22 X X X X X X X
SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville 9 21 X X X X X X X
UC Riverside 9 22 X X X X X X X
VMI 9 21 X X X X X X X
Alabama St. 8 23 X X X X X X X
CaliforniaCalif. 8 23 X X X X X X X
Columbia 8 19 X X X X X X X
Detroit 8 24 X X X X X X X
Morehead St. 8 21 X X X X X X X
Pittsburgh 8 24 X X X X X X X
Siena 8 24 X X X X X X X
Youngstown St.Youngstwn St. 8 24 X X X X X X X
Dartmouth 7 20 X X X X X X X
Incarnate Word 7 21 X X X X X X X
Longwood 7 26 X X X X X X X
MD Eastern Shore 7 25 X X X X X X X
Rice 7 24 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina Upstate 7 25 X X X X X X X
Sacramento St.Sacram. St. 7 25 X X X X X X X
UALR 7 25 X X X X X X X
American 6 24 X X X X X X X
CSU Northridge 6 24 X X X X X X X
Charlotte 6 23 X X X X X X X
Houston Baptist 6 25 X X X X X X X
Maine 6 26 X X X X X X X
Marist 6 25 X X X X X X X
PepperdinePepperd. 6 26 X X X X X X X
Coppin St. 5 27 X X X X X X X
Northern Arizona 5 27 X X X X X X X
Delaware St. 4 28 X X X X X X X
Miss. Valley St. 4 28 X X X X X X X
Northwestern St.N. Western St. 4 25 X X X X X X X
San Jose St. 4 26 X X X X X X X
Alabama A&M 3 28 X X X X X X X
Bryant 3 28 X X X X X X X
Chicago St. 3 29 X X X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot