PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Mar 26 11:30 pm

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your college team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
  Record  NCAA Basketball
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Final Four Elite Eight Sweet Sixteen Round 2 Round 1
Team W L
Gonzaga 34 1 34% 65% 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
North Carolina 31 7 26% 51% 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
Oregon 32 5 26% 49% 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
South Carolina 26 10 14% 35% 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
Kentucky 32 6 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Kansas 31 5 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Florida 27 8 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Xavier 24 14 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
Arizona 32 4 X X X X 100% ^ ^
UCLA 29 5 X X X X 100% ^ ^
West Virginia 28 9 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Baylor 27 8 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Purdue 27 8 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Wisconsin 27 10 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Michigan 26 12 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Butler 24 9 X X X X 100% ^ ^
Villanova 32 4 X X X X X 100% ^
Middle Tenn. 31 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Wichita St. 31 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Cincinnati 30 6 X X X X X 100% ^
Duke 28 9 X X X X X 100% ^
St. Mary's 28 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Arkansas 26 10 X X X X X 100% ^
Florida St. 26 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Notre Dame 26 10 X X X X X 100% ^
Louisville 25 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Rhode Island 25 10 X X X X X 100% ^
Iowa St. 24 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Northwestern N. Western 24 12 X X X X X 100% ^
USC 24 10 X X X X X 100% ^
Virginia 23 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Michigan St. 20 15 X X X X X 100% ^
Southern Methodist 30 5 X X X X X X 100%
N.C. Wilmington N.C. Wilming. 29 6 X X X X X X 100%
Vermont 29 6 X X X X X X 100%
Nevada 28 6 X X X X X X 100%
E. Tennessee St. E. Tenn. St. 27 8 X X X X X X 100%
New Mexico St. 27 6 X X X X X X 100%
Bucknell 26 9 X X X X X X 100%
Fla Gulf Coast 26 8 X X X X X X 100%
VCU 26 9 X X X X X X 100%
Creighton 25 10 X X X X X X 100%
Winthrop 25 7 X X X X X X 100%
Dayton 24 8 X X X X X X 100%
Maryland 24 9 X X X X X X 100%
Minnesota 24 10 X X X X X X 100%
Northern Kentucky 23 11 X X X X X X 100%
Princeton 23 7 X X X X X X 100%
Texas Southern 23 11 X X X X X X 100%
Iona 22 13 X X X X X X 100%
Kent State 22 14 X X X X X X 100%
North Dakota 22 10 X X X X X X 100%
Troy 22 15 X X X X X X 100%
UC Davis 22 13 X X X X X X 100%
Virginia Tech 22 11 X X X X X X 100%
Miami 21 12 X X X X X X 100%
Jacksonville St. Jack.ville St. 20 15 X X X X X X 100%
Kansas St. 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
Oklahoma St. 20 13 X X X X X X 100%
Seton Hall 20 12 X X X X X X 100%
Marquette 19 13 X X X X X X 100%
Mount St. Mary's 19 16 X X X X X X 100%
South Dakota St. 18 16 X X X X X X 100%
Vanderbilt 18 16 X X X X X X 100%
Illinois St. 27 6 X X X X X X X
Monmouth 27 6 X X X X X X X
Akron 26 8 X X X X X X X
Charleston 25 9 X X X X X X X
N.C. Central 25 8 X X X X X X X
N.C. Greensboro N.C. Greens-boro 25 9 X X X X X X X
Oakland 24 8 X X X X X X X
Texas Arlington 24 8 X X X X X X X
Valparaiso 24 8 X X X X X X X
Colorado St. 23 11 X X X X X X X
Louisiana Tech 23 10 X X X X X X X
N.C. Asheville 23 9 X X X X X X X
BYU 22 11 X X X X X X X
Belmont 22 6 X X X X X X X
Eastern Washington Eastern Wash. 22 11 X X X X X X X
Grand Canyon 22 9 X X X X X X X
Houston 22 10 X X X X X X X
Rice 22 11 X X X X X X X
South Dakota 22 11 X X X X X X X
Albany 21 13 X X X X X X X
Ball State 21 12 X X X X X X X
Cal St. Bakersfield 21 9 X X X X X X X
Furman 21 11 X X X X X X X
LA Lafayette 21 12 X X X X X X X
Sam Houston St. 21 13 X X X X X X X
Tenn-Martin 21 12 X X X X X X X
UC Irvine 21 14 X X X X X X X
UCF 21 11 X X X X X X X
Arkansas St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
California Calif. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Fresno St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
George Mason 20 13 X X X X X X X
Georgia St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Lipscomb 20 13 X X X X X X X
Marshall 20 15 X X X X X X X
New Hampshire 20 12 X X X X X X X
Ole Miss 20 13 X X X X X X X
Providence Provid. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Richmond 20 12 X X X X X X X
San Francisco 20 12 X X X X X X X
St. Bonaventure St. Bonavent. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Texas St. (SM) 20 13 X X X X X X X
Towson 20 13 X X X X X X X
Utah 20 11 X X X X X X X
Wright St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Alabama 19 14 X X X X X X X
Boise St. 19 11 X X X X X X X
Chattanooga Chattan. 19 12 X X X X X X X
Colorado 19 14 X X X X X X X
Gardner-Webb 19 14 X X X X X X X
Geo. Washington Geo. Wash. 19 14 X X X X X X X
Georgia 19 14 X X X X X X X
IPFW 19 12 X X X X X X X
LIU-Brooklyn 19 12 X X X X X X X
Lehigh 19 12 X X X X X X X
Liberty 19 13 X X X X X X X
Memphis 19 13 X X X X X X X
New Orleans 19 11 X X X X X X X
North Dakota St. 19 11 X X X X X X X
Ohio 19 11 X X X X X X X
Old Dominion 19 12 X X X X X X X
Samford 19 15 X X X X X X X
St. Peter's 19 13 X X X X X X X
TCU 19 15 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M C.C. 19 11 X X X X X X X
Wake Forest 19 13 X X X X X X X
Weber St. 19 13 X X X X X X X
Alcorn St. 18 14 X X X X X X X
Auburn 18 14 X X X X X X X
Canisius 18 15 X X X X X X X
Elon 18 14 X X X X X X X
Georgia Southern 18 14 X X X X X X X
Green Bay 18 13 X X X X X X X
Harvard 18 10 X X X X X X X
Idaho 18 13 X X X X X X X
Illinois 18 14 X X X X X X X
Indiana 18 15 X X X X X X X
Iowa 18 14 X X X X X X X
Lamar 18 14 X X X X X X X
Loyola-Chicago 18 14 X X X X X X X
Nebraska Omaha 18 14 X X X X X X X
Rider 18 15 X X X X X X X
San Diego St. 18 14 X X X X X X X
Stephen F. Austin 18 14 X X X X X X X
Stony Brook 18 13 X X X X X X X
Syracuse 18 14 X X X X X X X
UMBC 18 12 X X X X X X X
Yale 18 11 X X X X X X X
Boston U. 17 14 X X X X X X X
Buffalo 17 15 X X X X X X X
CSU Fullerton 17 14 X X X X X X X
Campbell 17 17 X X X X X X X
Clemson 17 15 X X X X X X X
Davidson 17 15 X X X X X X X
Georgia Tech 17 15 X X X X X X X
Houston Baptist 17 13 X X X X X X X
Jacksonville Jack.ville 17 15 X X X X X X X
New Mexico 17 14 X X X X X X X
Norfolk St. 17 16 X X X X X X X
Ohio St. 17 15 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina Upstate 17 15 X X X X X X X
Santa Clara 17 15 X X X X X X X
Siena 17 17 X X X X X X X
Southern Illinois 17 16 X X X X X X X
Tennessee St. Tenn. St. 17 13 X X X X X X X
Texas Tech 17 14 X X X X X X X
Toledo 17 16 X X X X X X X
UAB 17 16 X X X X X X X
UMKC 17 16 X X X X X X X
Wyoming 17 13 X X X X X X X
Central Michigan 16 16 X X X X X X X
Coastal Carolina Coast. Car. 16 17 X X X X X X X
Connecticut 16 17 X X X X X X X
Denver 16 14 X X X X X X X
Eastern Michigan 16 17 X X X X X X X
Evansville 16 17 X X X X X X X
Fairfield 16 14 X X X X X X X
Mississippi St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Missouri St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Montana 16 16 X X X X X X X
Montana St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Murray St. 16 17 X X X X X X X
Navy 16 16 X X X X X X X
Pittsburgh 16 17 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (PA) 16 16 X X X X X X X
Temple 16 16 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M 16 15 X X X X X X X
Wagner 16 14 X X X X X X X
Western Michigan 16 16 X X X X X X X
William & Mary 16 14 X X X X X X X
Wofford 16 17 X X X X X X X
Arizona St. 15 18 X X X X X X X
E. Carolina 15 18 X X X X X X X
Grambling 15 17 X X X X X X X
Hofstra 15 17 X X X X X X X
Holy Cross 15 17 X X X X X X X
Ill. Chicago 15 18 X X X X X X X
La Salle 15 15 X X X X X X X
Long Beach St. 15 19 X X X X X X X
Loyola-MD 15 16 X X X X X X X
Massachusetts Mass. 15 18 X X X X X X X
N.C. State 15 17 X X X X X X X
North Florida 15 19 X X X X X X X
Northeastern N. Eastern 15 16 X X X X X X X
Northern Illinois 15 17 X X X X X X X
Penn State 15 18 X X X X X X X
Portland St. 15 16 X X X X X X X
Rutgers 15 18 X X X X X X X
SE Louisiana 15 16 X X X X X X X
SE Missouri St. 15 18 X X X X X X X
Southern 15 17 X X X X X X X
Tennessee 15 16 X X X X X X X
Tulsa 15 17 X X X X X X X
UTEP 15 17 X X X X X X X
Utah St. 15 16 X X X X X X X
Utah Valley 15 15 X X X X X X X
Western Kentucky 15 17 X X X X X X X
Eastern Illinois 14 15 X X X X X X X
Georgetown George-town 14 18 X X X X X X X
Hampton 14 16 X X X X X X X
Hawaii 14 16 X X X X X X X
High Point 14 16 X X X X X X X
IUPUI 14 18 X X X X X X X
Jackson St. 14 18 X X X X X X X
Kennesaw St. 14 18 X X X X X X X
Loyola Marymount Loyola Marymnt 14 15 X X X X X X X
Mercer 14 17 X X X X X X X
Morehead St. 14 16 X X X X X X X
Morgan St. 14 16 X X X X X X X
Nicholls St. 14 17 X X X X X X X
Northern Iowa 14 16 X X X X X X X
Radford 14 18 X X X X X X X
Robert Morris 14 19 X X X X X X X
San Jose St. 14 16 X X X X X X X
South Alabama 14 18 X X X X X X X
St. John's 14 19 X X X X X X X
Stanford 14 17 X X X X X X X
Texas-San Antonio 14 19 X X X X X X X
UALR 14 17 X X X X X X X
Army 13 18 X X X X X X X
Bowling Green 13 19 X X X X X X X
Bradley 13 20 X X X X X X X
Brown 13 17 X X X X X X X
Charlotte 13 17 X X X X X X X
Delaware 13 20 X X X X X X X
Fordham 13 19 X X X X X X X
MD Eastern Shore 13 21 X X X X X X X
Northwestern St. N. Western St. 13 16 X X X X X X X
Pennsylvania Penn. 13 15 X X X X X X X
Prairie View A&M 13 20 X X X X X X X
Sacramento St. Sacram. St. 13 18 X X X X X X X
Sacred Heart 13 19 X X X X X X X
San Diego 13 17 X X X X X X X
Savannah St. 13 16 X X X X X X X
Washington St. Wash. St. 13 18 X X X X X X X
Youngstown St. Youngstwn St. 13 21 X X X X X X X
Abilene Christian 12 16 X X X X X X X
Binghamton Bingham. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Bryant 12 20 X X X X X X X
Charleston Southern 12 19 X X X X X X X
Citadel 12 21 X X X X X X X
Eastern Kentucky 12 19 X X X X X X X
Incarnate Word 12 17 X X X X X X X
Nebraska 12 18 X X X X X X X
Saint Louis 12 21 X X X X X X X
Seattle 12 17 X X X X X X X
Tennessee Tech Tenn. Tech 12 20 X X X X X X X
Air Force 11 21 X X X X X X X
Austin Peay 11 19 X X X X X X X
Bethune-Cookman 11 21 X X X X X X X
CSU Northridge 11 19 X X X X X X X
Cal Poly 11 20 X X X X X X X
Fair. Dickinson 11 19 X X X X X X X
Indiana St. 11 20 X X X X X X X
Miami OH 11 21 X X X X X X X
New Jersey Tech 11 20 X X X X X X X
Northern Colorado 11 18 X X X X X X X
Oklahoma 11 20 X X X X X X X
Pacific 11 21 X X X X X X X
Portland 11 22 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina St. 11 20 X X X X X X X
St. Joseph's 11 20 X X X X X X X
Stetson 11 21 X X X X X X X
Texas 11 22 X X X X X X X
UMass-Lowell 11 20 X X X X X X X
UNLV 11 21 X X X X X X X
Wis. Milwaukee 11 24 X X X X X X X
Colgate 10 22 X X X X X X X
Columbia 10 16 X X X X X X X
Delaware St. 10 22 X X X X X X X
Duquesne 10 22 X X X X X X X
Florida Atlantic 10 20 X X X X X X X
Howard 10 24 X X X X X X X
James Madison 10 23 X X X X X X X
LSU 10 21 X X X X X X X
Manhattan 10 22 X X X X X X X
Niagara 10 23 X X X X X X X
Quinnipiac Quinnip. 10 20 X X X X X X X
UT-Rio Grande Valley 10 22 X X X X X X X
Appalachian St. App. St. 9 21 X X X X X X X
Boston College 9 23 X X X X X X X
Cleveland St. 9 22 X X X X X X X
DePaul 9 22 X X X X X X X
Drexel 9 23 X X X X X X X
Hartford 9 23 X X X X X X X
LA Monroe 9 24 X X X X X X X
Northern Arizona 9 23 X X X X X X X
Pepperdine Pepperd. 9 22 X X X X X X X
Southern Miss 9 22 X X X X X X X
Washington Wash. 9 22 X X X X X X X
Western Carolina 9 23 X X X X X X X
Alabama St. 8 23 X X X X X X X
American 8 22 X X X X X X X
Central Arkansas 8 24 X X X X X X X
Coppin St. 8 24 X X X X X X X
Cornell 8 21 X X X X X X X
Detroit 8 23 X X X X X X X
Lafayette 8 21 X X X X X X X
Marist 8 24 X X X X X X X
Missouri 8 24 X X X X X X X
North Texas 8 22 X X X X X X X
Oral Roberts 8 22 X X X X X X X
UC Riverside 8 21 X X X X X X X
Western Illinois 8 20 X X X X X X X
AR Pine Bluff 7 25 X X X X X X X
Dartmouth 7 20 X X X X X X X
Drake 7 23 X X X X X X X
FIU 7 24 X X X X X X X
Florida A&M 7 23 X X X X X X X
Maine 7 25 X X X X X X X
McNeese St. 7 22 X X X X X X X
Miss. Valley St. 7 25 X X X X X X X
South Florida 7 23 X X X X X X X
Central Conn. St. 6 23 X X X X X X X
Idaho St. 6 26 X X X X X X X
Longwood 6 24 X X X X X X X
SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville 6 24 X X X X X X X
Southern Utah 6 27 X X X X X X X
Tulane 6 25 X X X X X X X
UCSB 6 22 X X X X X X X
VMI 6 24 X X X X X X X
Chicago St. 5 26 X X X X X X X
Oregon St. 5 27 X X X X X X X
Presbyterian Presbyter. 5 25 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (NY) 4 27 X X X X X X X
N.C. A&T 3 29 X X X X X X X
Alabama A&M 2 27 X X X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot