2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

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NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
	Record		NCAA Basketball National Champions	Championship Game Participate	Final Four	Elite Eight	Sweet Sixteen	Round 2	Round 1
Team	W	L	NCAA Basketball National Champions	Championship Game Participate	Final Four	Elite Eight	Sweet Sixteen	Round 2	Round 1
Purdue	33	4	42%	68%	100%	^	^	^	^
UConn	35	3	36%	72%	100%	^	^	^	^
Alabama	24	11	14%	32%	100%	^	^	^	^
N.C. State	26	14	9%	28%	100%	^	^	^	^
Illinois	29	9	X	X	X	100%	^	^	^
Duke	27	9	X	X	X	100%	^	^	^
Tennessee	27	9	X	X	X	100%	^	^	^
Clemson	24	12	X	X	X	100%	^	^	^
Houston	32	5	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Iowa St.	29	8	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
North Carolina	29	8	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Arizona	27	9	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Marquette	27	10	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Gonzaga	26	8	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
San Diego St.	26	11	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
Creighton	25	10	X	X	X	X	100%	^	^
James Madison	32	4	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Grand Canyon	29	5	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Utah St.	27	7	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Colorado	25	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Dayton	25	8	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Duquesne	25	12	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Washington St.	25	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Baylor	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Oakland	24	12	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Oregon	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Kansas	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Yale	23	10	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
NorthwesternN. Western	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Texas	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Texas A&M	21	15	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
Michigan St.	20	15	X	X	X	X	X	100%	^
McNeese	30	4	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Samford	29	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Drake	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Vermont	28	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Auburn	27	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Charleston	27	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Morehead St.	26	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Nevada	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
New Mexico	26	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
South Carolina	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
St. Mary's	26	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Colgate	25	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Florida Atlantic	25	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Akron	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Colorado St.	24	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Florida	24	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
BYU	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Kentucky	23	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Nebraska	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Texas Tech	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
UAB	23	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
South Dakota St.	22	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Stetson	22	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Western Kentucky	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Wisconsin	22	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Long Beach St.	21	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Longwood	21	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Mississippi St.Miss. St.	21	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
TCU	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Grambling	20	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
St. Peter's	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Wagner	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Indiana St.	28	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Appalachian St.App.St.	27	6	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
High Point	25	8	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Princeton	24	4	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Quinnipiac	24	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Florida	24	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC Irvine	24	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola Chicago	23	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Montana	23	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Richmond	23	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San Francisco	23	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tarleton St.	23	9	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Virginia	23	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boise St.	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bradley	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cornell	22	7	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fairfield	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Louisiana Tech	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Memphis	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Asheville	22	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Norfolk St.	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pittsburgh	22	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMass-LowellUMA-Lowell	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
VCU	22	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Carolina	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Youngstown St.	22	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
ChattanoogaChattan.	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Washington	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fort Wayne	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Merrimack	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Greensboro	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Providence	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sam Houston	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Joseph's	21	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tenn-MartinTN-Martin	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas A&M C.C.	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UALR	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC San Diego	21	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UNC Wilmington	21	10	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Illinois	21	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Belmont	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bowling Green	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bryant	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Conn.	20	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cincinnati	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cleveland St.	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Drexel	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
George Mason	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hawai'i	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hofstra	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lipscomb	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicholls St.	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ohio	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ohio St.	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oklahoma	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ole Miss	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Santa Clara	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Seton Hall	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Methodist	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. John's	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Thomas	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stony Brook	20	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Syracuse	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Toledo	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Towson	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Troy	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC Davis	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMass	20	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UT Arlington	20	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wake Forest	20	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Weber St.	20	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wis. Milwaukee	20	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Austin Peay	19	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boston College	19	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU Northridge	19	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Charlotte	19	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Delaware	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
E. Tennessee St.	19	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Indiana	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kansas St.	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
LA Lafayette	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lamar	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Colorado	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Iowa	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Seattle	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Illinois	19	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UNLV	19	12	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah	19	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Arkansas St.	18	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Butler	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Michigan	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Green Bay	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Howard	18	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Iowa	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Liberty	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Marist	18	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Minnesota	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Monmouth	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N.C. Central	18	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Dakota	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Texas	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Kentucky	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San Diego	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stephen F. Austin	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tennessee St.	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UTEP	18	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Villanova	18	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Virginia Tech	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wright St.	18	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bethune-CookmanBethn-Ckmn	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Denver	17	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Kentucky	17	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Florida St.	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Furman	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
LSU	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Missouri St.	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Montana St.	17	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Portland St.	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville	17	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas State	17	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UCF	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Washington	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Winthrop	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wofford	17	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
American	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Arkansas	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Boston U.	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
California Baptist	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Evansville	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Iona	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
JacksonvilleJack.ville	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kent State	16	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
La Salle	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Maryland	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mercer	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Hampshire	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Niagara	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Florida	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Penn State	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Radford	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sacred Heart	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Alabama	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Miss	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Temple	16	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas Southern	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tulsa	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UC Riverside	16	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UCLA	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UCSB	16	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMKC	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah Valley	16	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Xavier	16	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Abilene Christian	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ball State	15	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Binghamton	15	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Davidson	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Delaware St.	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
E. Carolina	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fair. Dickinson	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Geo. Washington	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Illinois St.	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jackson St.	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kennesaw St.	15	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Le Moyne	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Maine	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miami	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miami OH	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nebraska Omaha	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Alabama	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
North Dakota St.	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rider	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rutgers	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SE Louisiana	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
USC	15	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wichita St.	15	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Wyoming	15	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Alcorn St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Arizona St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bucknell	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU Fullerton	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Campbell	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Canisius	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Illinois	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fla Gulf Coast	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia St.	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia Tech	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Harvard	14	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Idaho St.	14	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacksonville StateJacksnvlle St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lehigh	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Middle Tenn.	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Arizona	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
PresbyterianPresbyter.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Queens U.	14	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
S. Carolina St.	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stanford	14	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tulane	14	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
AR Pine Bluff	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Alabama St.	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Albany	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brown	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
California	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Columbia	13	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Eastern Michigan	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Elon	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fordham	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Marshall	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mount St. Mary's	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Navy	13	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Mexico St.	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Notre Dame	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oregon St.	13	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Saint Louis	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas A&M-CommerceTX A&M-Comm	13	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Chicago State	12	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Fresno St.	12	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola Marymount	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Murray State	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
NortheasternN. Eastern	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oklahoma St.	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Oral Roberts	12	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pepperdine	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Portland	12	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rhode Island	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
South Dakota	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UIC	12	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Western Michigan	12	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Alabama A&M	11	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Citadel	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
FIU	11	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Idaho	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lafayette	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Morgan St.	11	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northern Illinois	11	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
PennsylvaniaPenn.	11	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Rice	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Texas-San Antonio	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UL Monroe	11	19	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UMBC	11	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Utah Tech	11	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Army	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Charleston Southern	10	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Holy Cross	10	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
New Orleans	10	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Prairie View A&M	10	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Robert Morris	10	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
S. Carolina Upstate	10	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Sacramento St.	10	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Utah	10	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tennessee Tech	10	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
William & Mary	10	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Air Force	9	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Central Arkansas	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Coastal Carolina	9	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgetown	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Georgia Southern	9	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Lindenwood	9	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
MD Eastern Shore	9	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northwestern St.NWestrn St	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
SE Missouri St.	9	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
San José State	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Vanderbilt	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
West Virginia	9	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Bellarmine	8	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hampton	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Incarnate Word	8	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Louisville	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Michigan	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Missouri	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Southern Indiana	8	24	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
St. Francis (PA)	8	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Hartford	7	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Long Island U.	7	22	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Loyola-MD	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Manhattan	7	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
N. Carolina A&T	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
NJIT	7	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Old Dominion	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Valparaiso	7	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dartmouth	6	21	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Florida A&M	6	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Houston Christian	6	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
IUPUI	6	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Pacific	6	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UT-Rio Grande Valley	6	25	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Buffalo	4	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cal Poly	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Siena	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Stonehill	4	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
VMI	4	28	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
DePaul	3	29	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Coppin St.	2	27	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Detroit	1	31	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Miss. Valley St.	1	30	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

Notes
^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities