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Sun Mar 24 10:00 pm

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your college team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
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National Champions
Championship Game
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Final Four Elite Eight Sweet Sixteen Round 2 Round 1
Team W L
Duke 31 5 12% 22% 36% 67% 100% ^ ^
Virginia 30 3 9% 17% 32% 55% 73% 100% ^
North Carolina 29 6 8% 17% 31% 60% 100% ^ ^
Tennessee 31 5 8% 16% 32% 58% 100% ^ ^
Kentucky 29 6 8% 16% 29% 57% 100% ^ ^
Michigan St. 30 6 8% 15% 28% 54% 100% ^ ^
Michigan 30 6 7% 14% 29% 55% 100% ^ ^
Gonzaga 32 3 6% 13% 26% 51% 100% ^ ^
Florida St. 29 7 6% 11% 24% 49% 100% ^ ^
LSU 28 6 6% 11% 22% 46% 100% ^ ^
Houston 32 3 5% 10% 19% 36% 73% 100% ^
Purdue 25 9 4% 9% 21% 42% 100% ^ ^
Auburn 28 9 3% 8% 18% 41% 100% ^ ^
Virginia Tech 26 8 2% 5% 13% 33% 100% ^ ^
Texas Tech 27 6 2% 5% 11% 23% 51% 100% ^
Buffalo 32 3 2% 5% 11% 22% 49% 100% ^
UC Irvine 31 5 1% 2% 5% 16% 52% 100% ^
Oklahoma 20 13 1% 2% 5% 15% 27% 100% ^
Oregon 24 12 <1% 1% 4% 14% 48% 100% ^
Ohio St. 20 14 <1% 1% 2% 7% 27% 100% ^
Wofford 30 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Liberty 29 7 X X X X X 100% ^
Murray St. 28 5 X X X X X 100% ^
Washington 27 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Kansas 26 10 X X X X X 100% ^
Villanova 26 10 X X X X X 100% ^
UCF 24 9 X X X X X 100% ^
Iowa 23 12 X X X X X 100% ^
Maryland 23 11 X X X X X 100% ^
Minnesota 22 14 X X X X X 100% ^
Baylor 20 14 X X X X X 100% ^
Florida 20 16 X X X X X 100% ^
New Mexico St. 30 5 X X X X X X 100%
Nevada 29 5 X X X X X X 100%
Cincinnati 28 7 X X X X X X 100%
Utah St. 28 7 X X X X X X 100%
Abilene Christian 27 7 X X X X X X 100%
Vermont 27 7 X X X X X X 100%
Belmont 26 6 X X X X X X 100%
Montana 26 9 X X X X X X 100%
Northern Kentucky 26 9 X X X X X X 100%
Kansas St. 25 9 X X X X X X 100%
VCU 25 8 X X X X X X 100%
Colgate 24 11 X X X X X X 100%
Georgia St. 24 10 X X X X X X 100%
Marquette 24 10 X X X X X X 100%
Old Dominion 24 7 X X X X X X 100%
Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb 23 12 X X X X X X 100%
Iowa St. 23 12 X X X X X X 100%
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 23 11 X X X X X X 100%
NortheasternN. Eastern 23 11 X X X X X X 100%
Saint Louis 23 13 X X X X X X 100%
Wisconsin 23 11 X X X X X X 100%
Arizona St. 22 11 X X X X X X 100%
St. Mary's 22 12 X X X X X X 100%
Yale 22 8 X X X X X X 100%
Bradley 20 15 X X X X X X 100%
Fair. Dickinson 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
Louisville 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
Ole Miss 20 13 X X X X X X 100%
Seton Hall 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
Syracuse 20 14 X X X X X X 100%
North Dakota St. 18 16 X X X X X X 100%
Iona 17 16 X X X X X X 100%
N.C. Greensboro 28 6 X X X X X X X
Hofstra 27 7 X X X X X X X
Furman 25 7 X X X X X X X
Lipscomb 25 7 X X X X X X X
Toledo 25 7 X X X X X X X
Charleston 24 9 X X X X X X X
Davidson 24 9 X X X X X X X
Drake 24 9 X X X X X X X
E. Tennessee St. 24 9 X X X X X X X
Jacksonville St.Jack.ville St. 24 9 X X X X X X X
South Dakota St. 24 8 X X X X X X X
Stony Brook 24 8 X X X X X X X
Texas St. (SM) 24 9 X X X X X X X
Utah Valley 24 9 X X X X X X X
Central Michigan 23 11 X X X X X X X
Fresno St. 23 9 X X X X X X X
Temple 23 9 X X X X X X X
Austin Peay 22 11 X X X X X X X
Bowling Green 22 12 X X X X X X X
Kent State 22 10 X X X X X X X
N.C. State 22 11 X X X X X X X
Prairie View A&M 22 12 X X X X X X X
Radford 22 11 X X X X X X X
UCSB 22 10 X X X X X X X
Colorado 21 12 X X X X X X X
Dayton 21 11 X X X X X X X
Georgia Southern 21 12 X X X X X X X
Memphis 21 13 X X X X X X X
Nebraska Omaha 21 11 X X X X X X X
New Jersey Tech 21 12 X X X X X X X
Norfolk St. 21 13 X X X X X X X
North Texas 21 8 X X X X X X X
Northern Colorado 21 11 X X X X X X X
Sam Houston St. 21 11 X X X X X X X
San Diego 21 14 X X X X X X X
San Diego St. 21 13 X X X X X X X
San Francisco 21 10 X X X X X X X
St. John's 21 12 X X X X X X X
Texas Southern 21 13 X X X X X X X
UMBC 21 13 X X X X X X X
Wright St. 21 13 X X X X X X X
Bucknell 20 12 X X X X X X X
Campbell 20 12 X X X X X X X
Grand Canyon 20 12 X X X X X X X
Lamar 20 13 X X X X X X X
Lehigh 20 11 X X X X X X X
Loyola Marymount 20 11 X X X X X X X
Loyola-ChicagoLoyl-Chcgo 20 13 X X X X X X X
TCU 20 13 X X X X X X X
BYU 19 13 X X X X X X X
Brown 19 11 X X X X X X X
Clemson 19 13 X X X X X X X
Duquesne 19 13 X X X X X X X
Georgetown 19 13 X X X X X X X
LA Lafayette 19 13 X X X X X X X
N.C. A&T 19 13 X X X X X X X
New Orleans 19 13 X X X X X X X
PennsylvaniaPenn. 19 12 X X X X X X X
UT-Rio Grande Valley 19 16 X X X X X X X
Wichita St. 19 14 X X X X X X X
Alabama 18 15 X X X X X X X
Creighton 18 14 X X X X X X X
George Mason 18 15 X X X X X X X
Hartford 18 15 X X X X X X X
Harvard 18 11 X X X X X X X
Hawaii 18 13 X X X X X X X
IPFW 18 15 X X X X X X X
LA Monroe 18 15 X X X X X X X
Louisiana Tech 18 11 X X X X X X X
N.C. Central 18 15 X X X X X X X
Nebraska 18 16 X X X X X X X
Oregon St. 18 13 X X X X X X X
PresbyterianPresbyter. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Providence 18 15 X X X X X X X
Rhode Island 18 15 X X X X X X X
Seattle 18 14 X X X X X X X
South Florida 18 13 X X X X X X X
Southern Miss 18 10 X X X X X X X
St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt 18 16 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (PA) 18 14 X X X X X X X
Tulsa 18 14 X X X X X X X
UAB 18 12 X X X X X X X
Weber St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Western Kentucky 18 12 X X X X X X X
Winthrop 18 12 X X X X X X X
Xavier 18 15 X X X X X X X
Akron 17 16 X X X X X X X
Arizona 17 15 X X X X X X X
Arkansas 17 15 X X X X X X X
Charleston Southern 17 15 X X X X X X X
Delaware 17 16 X X X X X X X
Grambling 17 16 X X X X X X X
Green Bay 17 16 X X X X X X X
Howard 17 16 X X X X X X X
Illinois St. 17 16 X X X X X X X
Indiana 17 15 X X X X X X X
Northern Illinois 17 17 X X X X X X X
Robert Morris 17 16 X X X X X X X
SE Louisiana 17 16 X X X X X X X
Samford 17 16 X X X X X X X
Siena 17 16 X X X X X X X
South Alabama 17 17 X X X X X X X
Southern Illinois 17 15 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (NY) 17 15 X X X X X X X
Texas Arlington 17 16 X X X X X X X
UCLA 17 16 X X X X X X X
UNLV 17 13 X X X X X X X
Ball State 16 17 X X X X X X X
Butler 16 16 X X X X X X X
CSU Fullerton 16 17 X X X X X X X
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. BF 16 15 X X X X X X X
ConnecticutConnect. 16 17 X X X X X X X
Eastern Washington 16 18 X X X X X X X
FIU 16 12 X X X X X X X
Florida Atlantic 16 12 X X X X X X X
High Point 16 15 X X X X X X X
Holy Cross 16 17 X X X X X X X
IUPUI 16 16 X X X X X X X
Ill. Chicago 16 16 X X X X X X X
LIU-BrooklynLIU-Brklyn 16 16 X X X X X X X
Missouri St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
North Florida 16 17 X X X X X X X
Northern Iowa 16 18 X X X X X X X
Oakland 16 17 X X X X X X X
Pepperdine 16 18 X X X X X X X
Portland St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Princeton 16 12 X X X X X X X
Quinnipiac 16 14 X X X X X X X
Rider 16 15 X X X X X X X
Santa Clara 16 15 X X X X X X X
South Carolina 16 16 X X X X X X X
Southern Utah 16 16 X X X X X X X
Texas 16 16 X X X X X X X
USC 16 17 X X X X X X X
Utah 16 14 X X X X X X X
American 15 15 X X X X X X X
Boston U. 15 18 X X X X X X X
California Baptist 15 14 X X X X X X X
Canisius 15 17 X X X X X X X
Coastal Carolina 15 16 X X X X X X X
Cornell 15 15 X X X X X X X
DePaul 15 15 X X X X X X X
Eastern Michigan 15 17 X X X X X X X
Hampton 15 16 X X X X X X X
Indiana St. 15 16 X X X X X X X
Long Beach St. 15 19 X X X X X X X
Longwood 15 17 X X X X X X X
Marshall 15 14 X X X X X X X
Miami OH 15 17 X X X X X X X
Missouri 15 17 X X X X X X X
Montana St. 15 17 X X X X X X X
Sacred Heart 15 17 X X X X X X X
Southern Methodist 15 17 X X X X X X X
Stanford 15 16 X X X X X X X
Texas-San Antonio 15 13 X X X X X X X
UMass-LowellUMA-Lowell 15 17 X X X X X X X
Valparaiso 15 18 X X X X X X X
Air Force 14 18 X X X X X X X
Bethune-CookmanBethn-Ckmn 14 17 X X X X X X X
Boston College 14 17 X X X X X X X
Central Arkansas 14 19 X X X X X X X
Eastern Illinois 14 18 X X X X X X X
Fla Gulf Coast 14 18 X X X X X X X
Georgia Tech 14 18 X X X X X X X
James Madison 14 19 X X X X X X X
Miami 14 18 X X X X X X X
Monmouth 14 21 X X X X X X X
New Mexico 14 18 X X X X X X X
Nicholls St. 14 17 X X X X X X X
Notre Dame 14 19 X X X X X X X
Ohio 14 17 X X X X X X X
Pacific 14 18 X X X X X X X
Penn State 14 18 X X X X X X X
Pittsburgh 14 19 X X X X X X X
Rutgers 14 17 X X X X X X X
Sacramento St. 14 16 X X X X X X X
St. Joseph's 14 19 X X X X X X X
Stephen F. Austin 14 16 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M 14 18 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M C.C. 14 18 X X X X X X X
West Virginia 14 20 X X X X X X X
William & Mary 14 17 X X X X X X X
AR Pine Bluff 13 19 X X X X X X X
Arkansas St. 13 19 X X X X X X X
Army 13 19 X X X X X X X
Boise St. 13 20 X X X X X X X
CSU Northridge 13 20 X X X X X X X
Drexel 13 19 X X X X X X X
Eastern Kentucky 13 18 X X X X X X X
Morehead St. 13 20 X X X X X X X
Niagara 13 19 X X X X X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 13 19 X X X X X X X
Richmond 13 20 X X X X X X X
South Dakota 13 17 X X X X X X X
Wagner 13 17 X X X X X X X
Alabama St. 12 19 X X X X X X X
Albany 12 20 X X X X X X X
ChattanoogaChattan. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Citadel 12 18 X X X X X X X
Colorado St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Florida A&M 12 19 X X X X X X X
Fordham 12 20 X X X X X X X
Houston Baptist 12 18 X X X X X X X
Illinois 12 21 X X X X X X X
JacksonvilleJack.ville 12 20 X X X X X X X
Marist 12 19 X X X X X X X
Navy 12 19 X X X X X X X
North Dakota 12 18 X X X X X X X
Oklahoma St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Tenn-MartinTN-Martin 12 19 X X X X X X X
Troy 12 18 X X X X X X X
Youngstown St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Central Conn. St. 11 20 X X X X X X X
Dartmouth 11 19 X X X X X X X
Detroit 11 20 X X X X X X X
Elon 11 21 X X X X X X X
Evansville 11 21 X X X X X X X
Georgia 11 21 X X X X X X X
Idaho St. 11 19 X X X X X X X
Jackson St. 11 19 X X X X X X X
Loyola-MD 11 21 X X X X X X X
Manhattan 11 21 X X X X X X X
MassachusettsMass. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Mercer 11 20 X X X X X X X
Northwestern St.NWestrn St 11 20 X X X X X X X
Oral Roberts 11 21 X X X X X X X
Savannah St. 11 20 X X X X X X X
UC Davis 11 20 X X X X X X X
UMKC 11 21 X X X X X X X
VMI 11 21 X X X X X X X
Wake Forest 11 20 X X X X X X X
Washington St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
Alcorn St. 10 21 X X X X X X X
Binghamton 10 23 X X X X X X X
Bryant 10 20 X X X X X X X
Cleveland St. 10 21 X X X X X X X
Columbia 10 18 X X X X X X X
E. Carolina 10 21 X X X X X X X
La Salle 10 21 X X X X X X X
Lafayette 10 20 X X X X X X X
N.C. Wilmington 10 23 X X X X X X X
North Alabama 10 22 X X X X X X X
Northern Arizona 10 21 X X X X X X X
Rice 10 18 X X X X X X X
SE Missouri St. 10 21 X X X X X X X
SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville 10 21 X X X X X X X
St. Peter's 10 22 X X X X X X X
Towson 10 22 X X X X X X X
UALR 10 21 X X X X X X X
UC Riverside 10 23 X X X X X X X
Western Illinois 10 21 X X X X X X X
Fairfield 9 22 X X X X X X X
Geo. Washington 9 24 X X X X X X X
Morgan St. 9 21 X X X X X X X
Mount St. Mary's 9 22 X X X X X X X
Tennessee St. 9 21 X X X X X X X
Vanderbilt 9 23 X X X X X X X
Wis. Milwaukee 9 22 X X X X X X X
California 8 23 X X X X X X X
Coppin St. 8 25 X X X X X X X
Denver 8 22 X X X X X X X
McNeese St. 8 22 X X X X X X X
Middle Tenn. 8 20 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina St. 8 26 X X X X X X X
Tennessee Tech 8 23 X X X X X X X
UTEP 8 17 X X X X X X X
Western Michigan 8 24 X X X X X X X
Wyoming 8 24 X X X X X X X
MD Eastern Shore 7 25 X X X X X X X
Portland 7 25 X X X X X X X
Southern 7 25 X X X X X X X
Stetson 7 24 X X X X X X X
Western Carolina 7 25 X X X X X X X
Cal Poly 6 23 X X X X X X X
Charlotte 6 19 X X X X X X X
Delaware St. 6 25 X X X X X X X
Incarnate Word 6 25 X X X X X X X
Kennesaw St. 6 26 X X X X X X X
Miss. Valley St. 6 26 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina Upstate 6 26 X X X X X X X
Alabama A&M 5 27 X X X X X X X
Idaho 5 27 X X X X X X X
Maine 5 27 X X X X X X X
New Hampshire 5 24 X X X X X X X
N.C. Asheville 4 27 X X X X X X X
San Jose St. 4 27 X X X X X X X
Tulane 4 27 X X X X X X X
Chicago St. 3 28 X X X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot