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Thu Dec 8 4:00 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 5 of 17

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 49 and 50. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, N.C. Wilmington, Nevada, Seton Hall
First 6 teams out - Colorado, Ohio St., N.C. State, Rutgers, Temple, DaytonColorado, Ohio St., N.C. State, Rutgers, Temple, Dayton

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Villanova Big East 106 9 0 >99% >99% X
2 Baylor Big 12 104 8 0 >99% >99% X
3 Creighton Big East 101 9 0 >99% >99% X
4 Louisville ACC 95 8 1 >99% 95% X
5 Kansas Big 12 93 8 1 >99% 91% X
6 South Carolina SEC 92 8 0 >99% 90% X
7 Notre Dame ACC 92 8 0 >99% 89% X
8 USC PAC 12 91 8 0 >99% 91% X
9 Duke ACC 91 8 1 >99% 85% X
10 Kentucky SEC 90 8 1 >99% 85% X
11 UCLA PAC 12 90 7 0 >99% 88% X
12 Virginia ACC 90 8 1 >99% 83% X
13 Minnesota Big 10 89 8 1 >99% 84% X
14 Florida SEC 89 6 1 >99% 82% X
15 North Carolina ACC 87 9 1 >99% 76% X
16 Florida St. ACC 87 7 1 >99% 75% X
17 Auburn SEC 86 6 1 >99% 73% X
18 Xavier Big East 85 7 2 >99% 73% X
19 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 85 6 1 >99% 76% X
20 Arkansas SEC 85 7 1 >99% 71% X
21 St. Mary's West Coast 84 5 0 >99% 79% X
22 Butler Big East 84 6 1 >99% 68% X
23 Wake Forest ACC 83 7 2 >99% 65% X
24 Purdue Big 10 83 7 2 >99% 65% X
25 Gonzaga West Coast 82 6 0 >99% 72% X
26 West Virginia Big 12 82 7 1 >99% 62% X
27 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 82 8 1 >99% 72% X
28 Miami ACC 82 7 1 >99% 62% X
29 Arizona PAC 12 82 7 1 >99% 63% X
30 Indiana Big 10 81 7 1 >99% 58% X
31 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 81 7 1 >99% 63% X
32 Wisconsin Big 10 80 8 2 >99% 57% X
33 Iowa St. Big 12 80 6 1 >99% 57% X
34 Ole Miss SEC 80 6 2 >99% 56% X
35 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 79 6 2 >99% 54% X
36 TCU Big 12 79 7 1 >99% 53% X
37 Providence Big East 79 7 2 >99% 54% X
38 Pittsburgh ACC 79 7 2 >99% 52% X
39 Kansas St. Big 12 79 8 0 >99% 52% X
40 Texas Tech Big 12 79 7 1 >99% 52% X
41 Michigan Big 10 78 7 2 >99% 50% X
42 Texas A&M SEC 76 6 2 >99% 46% X
43 Marquette Big East 76 7 2 >99% 44% X
44 Clemson ACC 76 5 2 >99% 45% X
45 Maryland Big 10 76 8 1 >99% 45% X
46 Virginia Tech ACC 76 6 1 >99% 45% X
47 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 74 7 1 >99% 50% X
48 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 74 7 1 >99% 48% X
49 Seton Hall Big East 74 6 2 >99% 39% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 78 Line Movers
50 Colorado PAC 12 74 7 2 >99% 40% X
51 Ohio St. Big 10 74 7 2 >99% 40% X
52 N.C. State ACC 74 6 2 >99% 39% X
53 Rutgers Big 10 73 8 1 >99% 39% X
54 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 73 6 3 >99% 38% X
55 Dayton Atlantic 10 73 6 2 >99% 39% X
56 Stanford PAC 12 72 6 3 >99% 36% X
57 Southern Methodist American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 7 3 X X X
58 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 71 7 2 >99% 41% X
59 VCU Atlantic 10 71 6 3 >99% 33% X
60 Oklahoma St. Big 12 70 6 2 >99% 33% X
61 Charleston Colonial Athletic 70 6 3 >99% 39% X
62 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 70 6 1 >99% 39% X
63 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 70 8 2 >99% 38% X
64 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 70 5 2 >99% 33% X
65 Oklahoma Big 12 70 6 2 >99% 30% X
66 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 69 7 2 >99% 42% X
67 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 69 6 3 >99% 30% X
68 Oregon PAC 12 69 6 2 >99% 29% X
69 Nebraska Big 10 69 5 2 >99% 29% X
70 Illinois Big 10 68 7 3 >99% 28% X
71 Davidson Atlantic 10 68 4 3 >99% 29% X
72 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 68 7 2 >99% 29% X
73 Akron MAC 68 7 1 >99% 34% X
74 Massachusetts Mass. Atlantic 10 68 5 2 >99% 29% X
75 Michigan St. Big 10 68 6 4 >99% 25% X
76 Chattanooga Southern 67 7 2 >99% 32% X
77 Valparaiso Horizon 67 6 2 >99% 36% X
78 Georgia SEC 67 5 3 >99% 25% X
79 Mississippi St. SEC 67 6 2 >99% 25% X
80 California PAC 12 67 6 2 >99% 24% X
81 Ohio MAC 66 4 1 >99% 31% X
82 Penn State Big 10 66 6 4 >99% 21% X
83 DePaul Big East 66 5 2 >99% 21% X
84 E. Tennessee St. Southern 65 7 1 >99% 30% X
85 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 65 8 2 >99% 28% X
86 Bucknell Patriot League 65 7 3 >99% 39% X
87 San Francisco West Coast 65 7 1 >99% 22% X
88 La Salle Atlantic 10 65 4 3 >99% 22% X
89 New Mexico St. WAC 64 6 2 >99% 38% X
90 N.C. Asheville Big South 64 6 3 >99% 37% X
91 George Mason Atlantic 10 64 7 2 >99% 19% X
92 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 64 7 2 >99% 24% X
93 Rice Conference USA 64 6 2 >99% 22% X
94 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 63 8 2 >99% 23% X
95 Syracuse ACC 63 5 3 >99% 15% X
96 Utah PAC 12 63 5 1 >99% 17% X
97 Georgia Tech ACC 62 5 3 >99% 15% X
98 Old Dominion Conference USA 62 5 2 >99% 19% X
99 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 62 6 2 >99% 17% X
100 Eastern Washington Big Sky 61 6 2 >99% 38% X
101 Oakland Horizon 61 8 1 >99% 24% X
102 LSU SEC 61 3 2 >99% 16% X
103 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 61 5 3 >99% 37% X
104 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 61 6 3 >99% 18% X
105 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 61 6 3 >99% 19% X
106 N.C. Central Mideastern 61 6 2 >99% 54% X
107 Vermont America East 61 6 3 >99% 27% X
108 Vanderbilt SEC 60 4 4 >99% 12% X
109 Central Michigan MAC 60 8 2 >99% 19% X
110 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 60 7 2 >99% 18% X
111 South Alabama Sunbelt 60 6 2 >99% 18% X
112 Texas Big 12 60 4 4 >99% 10% X
113 E. Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 60 7 3 >99% 13% X
114 Texas Southern Southwestern SWAC 59 4 3 >99% 51% X
115 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 59 5 4 >99% 17% X
116 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 59 5 2 >99% 17% X
117 Samford Southern 59 5 3 >99% 18% X
118 Georgia St. Sunbelt 59 4 3 >99% 16% X
119 IPFW Summit 58 7 3 >99% 26% X
120 UMBC America East 58 7 1 >99% 23% X
121 Charlotte Conference USA 58 6 3 >99% 12% X
122 UALR Sunbelt 58 5 2 >99% 14% X
123 Georgetown Big East 58 4 4 >99% 7% X
124 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 57 6 4 >99% 9% X
125 New Hampshire America East 57 6 3 >99% 23% X
126 N.C. Greensboro Southern 57 7 2 >99% 16% X
127 Arizona St. PAC 12 57 5 4 >99% 7% X
128 Elon Colonial Athletic 57 6 3 >99% 14% X
129 BYU West Coast 57 6 3 >99% 10% X
130 Tennessee SEC 57 3 3 >99% 8% X
131 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 56 5 4 >99% 13% X
132 Marshall Conference USA 56 4 3 >99% 11% X
133 Missouri SEC 56 5 3 X X X
134 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 56 3 4 >99% 12% X
135 Alabama SEC 56 4 3 >99% 7% X
136 Portland West Coast 55 5 3 >99% 8% X
137 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 55 5 2 >99% 13% X
138 Iona Metro Atlantic 55 5 3 >99% 16% X
139 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 55 6 4 >99% 12% X
140 Northern Kentucky Horizon 55 6 3 >99% 15% X
141 Winthrop Big South 55 4 3 >99% 21% X
142 Utah Valley WAC 55 5 2 >99% 22% X
143 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 54 4 3 >99% 7% X
144 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 54 4 3 >99% 11% X
145 Washington PAC 12 54 4 3 >99% 5% X
146 Mercer Southern 53 4 4 >99% 12% X
147 Toledo MAC 53 4 4 >99% 11% X
148 Wright St. Horizon 53 6 4 >99% 13% X
149 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 53 2 4 >99% 6% X
150 Evansville Missouri Valley 53 5 4 >99% 10% X
151 UMKC WAC 53 6 4 >99% 17% X
152 Belmont Ohio Valley 52 4 3 >99% 11% X
153 Washington St. PAC 12 52 5 4 >99% 3% X
154 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 52 5 3 >99% 13% X
155 Sam Houston St. Southland 52 4 3 >99% 20% X
156 Boise St. Mountain West Mntn West 52 4 4 >99% 7% X
157 UAB Conference USA 52 5 4 >99% 7% X
158 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 51 5 4 >99% 22% X
159 Grand Canyon WAC 51 4 3 X X X
160 St. John's Big East 50 4 5 >99% 1% X
161 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 50 5 3 >99% 6% X
162 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 50 5 3 >99% 6% X
163 North Dakota St. Summit 50 6 4 >99% 18% X
164 San Diego West Coast 50 4 4 >99% 4% X
165 Yale Ivy League 50 3 4 >99% 24% X
166 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 49 4 2 >99% 17% X
167 Canisius Metro Atlantic 49 4 5 >99% 10% X
168 Albany America East 49 5 4 >99% 14% X
169 Eastern Michigan MAC 49 5 3 >99% 7% X
170 Nicholls St. Southland 49 4 4 >99% 16% X
171 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 49 5 3 >99% 29% X
172 Pennsylvania Penn. Ivy League 49 3 4 >99% 21% X
173 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 48 5 3 >99% 6% X
174 South Dakota Summit 48 7 4 >99% 16% X
175 Citadel Southern 48 7 4 >99% 7% X
176 New Orleans Southland 48 3 3 >99% 15% X
177 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 48 6 4 >99% 7% X
178 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 4 3 >99% 3% X
179 Drexel Colonial Athletic 48 4 4 >99% 7% X
180 Buffalo MAC 48 4 5 >99% 7% X
181 San Diego St. Mountain West Mntn West 47 3 3 >99% 5% X
182 Iowa Big 10 47 4 5 >99% 1% X
183 Richmond Atlantic 10 47 4 4 >99% 2% X
184 Binghamton America East 47 7 4 >99% 11% X
185 Cleveland St. Horizon 47 3 4 >99% 8% X
186 Delaware Colonial Athletic 47 5 3 >99% 6% X
187 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 46 5 4 >99% 13% X
188 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 46 5 4 >99% 5% X
189 Fresno St. Mountain West Mntn West 46 5 3 >99% 4% X
190 Duquesne Atlantic 10 46 4 6 >99% 2% X
191 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 46 3 3 >99% 8% X
192 Pacific West Coast 46 3 3 X X X
193 Furman Southern 46 5 4 >99% 6% X
194 San Jose St. Mountain West Mntn West 46 3 4 >99% 5% X
195 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 45 5 4 >99% 5% X
196 North Dakota Big Sky 45 5 2 >99% 16% X
197 Army Patriot League 45 5 3 >99% 13% X
198 Rider Metro Atlantic 45 4 3 >99% 7% X
199 Boston College ACC 45 4 4 >99% <1% X
200 Denver Summit 45 3 4 >99% 13% X
201 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 45 4 4 >99% 5% X
202 Kent State MAC 44 5 3 >99% 5% X
203 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 44 4 4 >99% 2% X
204 Loyola-MD Patriot League 44 4 5 >99% 11% X
205 Murray St. Ohio Valley 44 4 4 >99% 6% X
206 Brown Ivy League 44 5 5 >99% 16% X
207 UC Irvine Big West 44 4 5 >99% 24% X
208 Green Bay Horizon 44 3 5 >99% 7% X
209 SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville Ohio Valley 44 4 5 >99% 5% X
210 Gardner-Webb Big South 44 5 4 99% 10% X
211 Abilene Christian Southland 44 3 3 X X X
212 Lehigh Patriot League 44 3 5 >99% 11% X
213 Nebraska Omaha Summit 43 3 5 >99% 11% X
214 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 43 4 4 >99% 4% X
215 Fordham Atlantic 10 43 5 4 >99% 1% X
216 Harvard Ivy League 43 4 4 >99% 13% X
217 New Jersey Tech Atlantic Sun 43 5 5 >99% 13% X
218 Western Carolina Southern 42 3 6 >99% 4% X
219 Towson Colonial Athletic 41 4 4 >99% 4% X
220 Ball State MAC 41 5 4 >99% 4% X
221 High Point Big South 41 3 5 >99% 9% X
222 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 41 2 4 >99% 4% X
223 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 41 5 4 >99% 4% X
224 Incarnate Word Southland 41 4 3 X X X
225 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 41 5 4 >99% 12% X
226 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 41 4 5 >99% 5% X
227 Holy Cross Patriot League 40 3 6 >99% 9% X
228 Santa Clara West Coast 40 3 4 >99% 1% X
229 Princeton Ivy League 40 3 4 >99% 11% X
230 IUPUI Summit 40 3 6 >99% 9% X
231 Northern Illinois MAC 40 4 4 >99% 3% X
232 Montana Big Sky 40 3 6 >99% 10% X
233 Troy Sunbelt 40 4 4 >99% 3% X
234 Campbell Big South 40 5 4 >99% 8% X
235 Columbia Ivy League 39 3 4 >99% 10% X
236 Houston Baptist Southland 39 3 4 99% 8% X
237 Radford Big South 39 3 5 >99% 7% X
238 Marist Metro Atlantic 39 4 6 >99% 5% X
239 Cal Poly Big West 39 5 4 >99% 17% X
240 Siena Metro Atlantic 38 3 6 >99% 5% X
241 Idaho Big Sky 38 3 4 >99% 10% X
242 Seattle WAC 38 2 5 98% 7% X
243 Northeastern N. Eastern Colonial Athletic 38 4 5 >99% 3% X
244 Ill. Chicago Horizon 38 4 4 >99% 3% X
245 North Texas Conference USA 38 4 4 >99% 2% X
246 Northwestern St. N. Western St. Southland 37 4 4 98% 7% X
247 Pepperdine West Coast 37 4 5 >99% 1% X
248 Lamar Southland 37 3 4 >99% 7% X
249 Navy Patriot League 37 4 6 >99% 7% X
250 SE Louisiana Southland 37 4 4 >99% 7% X
251 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 37 4 5 >99% 2% X
252 Chicago St. WAC 37 2 4 >99% 5% X
253 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 37 4 4 >99% 3% X
254 Montana St. Big Sky 36 5 5 >99% 8% X
255 Bradley Missouri Valley 36 3 5 >99% 2% X
256 Sacred Heart Northeast 36 4 5 >99% 13% X
257 Lafayette Patriot League 36 3 5 >99% 6% X
258 Bryant Northeast 35 3 6 >99% 12% X
259 CSU Northridge Big West 35 3 6 X X X
260 Charleston Southern Big South 35 3 3 >99% 5% X
261 Miami OH MAC 35 4 5 >99% 2% X
262 Wofford Southern 35 3 4 >99% 2% X
263 Youngstown St. Horizon 35 4 5 >99% 2% X
264 Coastal Carolina Coast. Car. Sunbelt 35 4 6 >99% 1% X
265 Southern Southwestern SWAC 34 3 3 >99% 13% X
266 Northern Colorado Big Sky 34 3 4 >99% 8% X
267 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 34 3 5 >99% 1% X
268 Oregon St. PAC 12 34 3 6 >99% <1% X
269 Stetson Atlantic Sun 34 5 6 >99% 7% X
270 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 34 2 4 >99% 1% X
271 Long Beach St. Big West 34 2 9 >99% 12% X
272 Boston U. Patriot League 34 3 5 >99% 5% X
273 North Florida Atlantic Sun 34 3 7 >99% 6% X
274 Loyola Marymount West Coast 33 1 3 >99% 1% X
275 Portland St. Big Sky 33 3 3 99% 6% X
276 UC Davis Big West 33 4 4 >99% 12% X
277 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 33 4 4 >99% 1% X
278 Stony Brook America East 33 3 5 >99% 3% X
279 Stephen F. Austin Southland 33 3 4 99% 4% X
280 Liberty Big South 33 4 5 >99% 4% X
281 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 32 1 9 >99% 9% X
282 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 32 2 5 >99% 1% X
283 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 32 2 7 >99% <1% X
284 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 32 2 6 >99% <1% X
285 South Dakota St. Summit 32 4 6 >99% 5% X
286 Bowling Green MAC 32 3 6 >99% 1% X
287 Western Kentucky Conference USA 32 2 5 >99% 1% X
288 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 31 2 6 >99% 9% X
289 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 31 3 3 >99% 9% X
290 Presbyterian Big South 31 3 5 >99% 4% X
291 Southern Miss Conference USA 31 3 4 X X X
292 UCSB Big West 31 1 4 >99% 10% X
293 Cornell Ivy League 30 2 5 >99% 4% X
294 LA Monroe Sunbelt 30 2 5 >99% 1% X
295 UC Riverside Big West 30 2 4 >99% 10% X
296 Hawaii Big West 30 4 5 >99% 10% X
297 Western Michigan MAC 30 2 6 >99% 1% X
298 Robert Morris Northeast 30 3 7 >99% 7% X
299 FIU Conference USA 29 3 6 >99% 1% X
300 Central Conn. St. Northeast 29 2 5 >99% 7% X
301 Maine America East 29 3 6 >99% 2% X
302 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 28 2 7 >99% 1% X
303 Central Arkansas Southland 28 1 7 X X X
304 Wagner Northeast 27 2 5 >99% 6% X
305 Prairie View A&M Southwestern SWAC 27 2 7 >99% 8% X
306 Grambling Southwestern SWAC 27 3 6 >99% 8% X
307 Delaware St. Mideastern 27 2 7 >99% 6% X
308 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 27 3 6 >99% 4% X
309 Oral Roberts Summit 26 1 8 >99% 2% X
310 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 26 4 6 >99% <1% X
311 Jackson St. Southwestern SWAC 26 2 6 >99% 7% X
312 Morgan St. Mideastern 26 3 6 99% 6% X
313 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC 26 3 8 >99% 2% X
314 Alcorn St. Southwestern SWAC 26 2 6 >99% 7% X
315 Niagara Metro Atlantic 25 2 7 99% 1% X
316 Howard Mideastern 25 1 6 >99% 5% X
317 UTEP Conference USA 25 1 5 >99% <1% X
318 Norfolk St. Mideastern 25 2 7 >99% 5% X
319 James Madison Colonial Athletic 24 1 7 >99% <1% X
320 CSU Fullerton Big West 24 3 6 >99% 6% X
321 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 24 2 7 >99% <1% X
322 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 23 2 6 >99% 4% X
323 Idaho St. Big Sky 22 1 8 >99% 2% X
324 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 22 2 7 >99% 4% X
325 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 22 2 7 >99% 3% X
326 Weber St. Big Sky 21 2 6 >99% 1% X
327 UMass-Lowell America East 21 2 8 X X X
328 Drake Missouri Valley 20 1 6 >99% <1% X
329 Sacramento St. Big Sky 20 2 6 >99% 2% X
330 Colgate Patriot League 20 2 8 >99% 1% X
331 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern SWAC 20 0 9 >99% 4% X
332 Detroit Horizon 20 1 8 >99% <1% X
333 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 20 3 8 >99% 2% X
334 Hartford America East 19 2 8 >99% 1% X
335 McNeese St. Southland 19 2 5 99% <1% X
336 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 19 1 8 >99% 3% X
337 Hampton Mideastern 18 2 7 >99% 3% X
338 VMI Southern 18 1 6 >99% <1% X
339 Longwood Big South 17 2 4 >99% <1% X
340 American Patriot League 17 1 7 >99% <1% X
341 Savannah St. Mideastern 15 2 8 >99% 2% X
342 N.C. A&T Mideastern 15 1 7 >99% 2% X
343 Southern Utah Big Sky 15 2 6 99% 1% X
344 Western Illinois Summit 14 2 6 >99% <1% X
345 Northern Arizona Big Sky 14 2 7 98% 1% X
346 Alabama St. Southwestern SWAC 13 1 6 >99% 2% X
347 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern SWAC 11 1 7 >99% 1% X
348 Dartmouth Ivy League 10 0 7 >99% <1% X
349 Florida A&M Mideastern 10 2 7 X X X
350 Coppin St. Mideastern 8 0 11 >99% 1% X
351 Alabama A&M Southwestern SWAC 5 0 7 >99% <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot