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NCAA Basketball - Week 12 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Michigan St., Xavier, St. Mary's, Davidson, N.C. State, San Diego St.
First 6 teams out - Washington, Iowa, Alabama, Old Dominion, Oregon St., Syracuse


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Kentucky SEC 115 19 0 100% > 99% 22%
2 Virginia ACC 114 19 0 100% > 99% 84%
3 Kansas Big 12 109 16 3 100% > 99% 59%
4 Villanova Big East 104 18 2 100% > 99% 1%
5 Wisconsin Big 10 104 18 2 100% > 99% < 1%
6 Duke ACC 103 17 2 100% > 99% < 1%
7 Arizona PAC 12 102 18 2 100% > 99% < 1%
8 Gonzaga West Coast 100 20 1 100% > 99% < 1%
9 North Carolina ACC 98 17 4 100% > 99% 1%
10 VCU Atlantic 10 98 16 3 100% > 99% X
11 Maryland Big 10 96 18 3 100% > 99% < 1%
12 Notre Dame ACC 96 19 2 100% > 99% < 1%
13 Louisville ACC 95 16 3 100% 99% < 1%
14 Georgetown Big East 93 14 4 100% 99% < 1%
15 Utah PAC 12 93 16 3 100% 98% X
16 West Virginia Big 12 93 16 3 100% 98% < 1%
17 Iowa St. Big 12 93 15 4 100% 98% < 1%
18 Baylor Big 12 91 15 4 100% 96% < 1%
19 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 90 17 2 100% 97% X
20 Providence Big East 89 15 5 100% 95% < 1%
21 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 89 18 2 100% 97% X
22 Indiana Big 10 88 15 5 100% 90% X
23 Arkansas SEC 88 15 4 100% 91% X
24 Butler Big East 87 14 6 100% 91% < 1%
25 LSU SEC 87 15 4 100% 87% X
26 Dayton Atlantic 10 86 16 3 100% 90% X
27 Texas Big 12 86 14 6 100% 88% < 1%
28 Colorado St. Mountain West 85 17 2 > 99% 86% X
29 Miami ACC 85 14 5 100% 80% X
30 Georgia SEC 85 13 5 100% 81% X
31 Southern Methodist American Athletic 84 16 4 > 99% 82% X
32 Ohio St. Big 10 84 16 5 100% 78% < 1%
33 Stanford PAC 12 84 14 5 100% 77% X
34 Texas A&M SEC 83 13 5 100% 74% X
35 Oklahoma Big 12 83 12 7 100% 71% X
36 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 82 16 4 100% 70% X
37 Oklahoma St. Big 12 81 13 6 100% 63% < 1%
38 Seton Hall Big East 81 13 6 100% 62% X
39 Tennessee SEC 81 12 6 100% 61% X
40 Cincinnati American Athletic 81 14 5 > 99% 65% X
41 St. John's Big East 80 13 6 100% 56% X
42 Michigan St. Big 10 80 13 7 100% 56% X
43 Xavier Big East 80 13 7 100% 58% X
44 St. Mary's West Coast 80 16 4 > 99% 60% X
45 Davidson Atlantic 10 80 14 4 > 99% 57% X
46 N.C. State ACC 79 13 8 100% 52% X
47 San Diego St. Mountain West 79 15 5 > 99% 55% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 83 Line Movers
48 Washington PAC 12 78 13 5 > 99% 48% X
49 Iowa Big 10 78 13 7 100% 46% X
50 Alabama SEC 78 13 6 100% 44% X
51 Old Dominion Conference USA 78 15 4 > 99% 50% X
52 Oregon St. PAC 12 76 14 5 > 99% 35% X
53 Syracuse ACC 76 14 7 100% 30% X
54 Wyoming Mountain West 75 17 3 > 99% 36% X
55 Oregon PAC 12 75 14 6 > 99% 31% X
56 Ole Miss SEC 75 12 7 100% 28% X
57 Kansas St. Big 12 74 12 8 100% 24% X
58 Green Bay Horizon 74 17 4 82% 46% X
59 TCU Big 12 74 14 5 100% 25% X
60 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 74 13 5 > 99% 25% X
61 Illinois Big 10 73 13 8 > 99% 20% X
62 Temple American Athletic 72 13 7 > 99% 20% X
63 Evansville Missouri Valley 72 15 5 > 99% 19% X
64 Tulsa American Athletic 72 14 5 > 99% 23% X
65 BYU West Coast 72 14 7 > 99% 18% X
66 Stephen F. Austin Southland 72 17 3 35% 50% X
67 Pittsburgh ACC 72 13 7 > 99% 16% X
68 Michigan Big 10 71 12 8 > 99% 16% X
69 Purdue Big 10 71 12 8 > 99% 15% X
70 Nebraska Big 10 71 12 7 > 99% 15% X
71 Wofford Southern 71 16 5 9% 42% X
72 Clemson ACC 71 11 8 > 99% 12% X
73 Valparaiso Horizon 71 19 4 17% 33% X
74 Murray St. Ohio Valley 71 17 4 4% 40% X
75 Minnesota Big 10 70 13 8 > 99% 10% X
76 Penn State Big 10 70 13 7 > 99% 10% X
77 Western Kentucky Conference USA 69 14 5 96% 22% X
78 Boise St. Mountain West 69 14 6 > 99% 14% X
79 UCLA PAC 12 69 11 9 > 99% 9% X
80 Connecticut American Athletic 68 11 7 > 99% 14% X
81 Florida SEC 68 10 9 100% 8% X
82 Buffalo MAC 67 12 6 99% 15% X
83 South Carolina SEC 67 10 7 > 99% 6% X
84 Memphis American Athletic 67 12 7 > 99% 10% X
85 New Mexico Mountain West 66 13 7 90% 10% X
86 Iona Metro Atlantic 66 15 6 < 1% 35% X
87 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 66 15 5 48% 17% X
88 Marquette Big East 65 10 9 > 99% 4% X
89 Kent State MAC 65 14 5 91% 19% X
90 Vanderbilt SEC 65 11 8 > 99% 3% X
91 Eastern Washington Big Sky 65 15 5 < 1% 39% X
92 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 64 10 9 99% 4% X
93 UC Davis Big West 64 14 4 7% 27% X
94 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 64 14 7 < 1% 29% X
95 Colorado PAC 12 64 10 9 > 99% 3% X
96 Yale Ivy League 64 12 6 > 99% 51% X
97 Bowling Green MAC 63 12 5 40% 16% X
98 High Point Big South 63 16 5 < 1% 30% X
99 DePaul Big East 63 11 10 > 99% 2% X
100 UTEP Conference USA 63 12 7 3% 12% X
101 Richmond Atlantic 10 63 10 9 99% 3% X
102 Central Michigan MAC 63 13 3 46% 14% X
103 N.C. Central Mideastern 62 15 5 < 1% 42% X
104 Harvard Ivy League 62 11 5 > 99% 26% X
105 UNLV Mountain West 62 11 9 43% 6% X
106 Arizona St. PAC 12 62 10 10 > 99% 2% X
107 Georgia Tech ACC 62 9 10 > 99% 1% X
108 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 61 12 8 27% 5% X
109 Boston College ACC 61 9 9 > 99% 1% X
110 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 61 13 7 21% 5% X
111 Rutgers Big 10 61 10 11 > 99% 1% X
112 Texas Tech Big 12 61 11 9 > 99% 1% X
113 Belmont Ohio Valley 61 13 7 < 1% 24% X
114 California PAC 12 61 11 9 > 99% 1% X
115 Sam Houston St. Southland 61 15 5 < 1% 33% X
116 Toledo MAC 60 11 8 2% 10% X
117 Western Michigan MAC 60 12 6 25% 11% X
118 Long Beach St. Big West 60 10 10 < 1% 19% X
119 La Salle Atlantic 10 60 10 9 86% 2% X
120 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 60 12 7 < 1% 10% X
121 Tulane American Athletic 60 13 7 64% 4% X
122 Florida St. ACC 60 10 10 > 99% < 1% X
123 Akron MAC 59 12 6 10% 11% X
124 Northwestern Big 10 59 10 10 > 99% 1% X
125 Auburn SEC 59 10 9 > 99% 1% X
126 Georgia St. Sunbelt 58 13 7 < 1% 26% X
127 Chattanooga Southern 58 14 7 < 1% 22% X
128 Wake Forest ACC 58 9 11 > 99% < 1% X
129 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 58 11 7 79% 2% X
130 Pepperdine West Coast 57 12 8 < 1% 4% X
131 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 57 11 7 < 1% 19% X
132 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 57 13 4 < 1% 27% X
133 Washington St. PAC 12 56 9 10 99% 1% X
134 Hawaii Big West 56 14 6 < 1% 14% X
135 South Dakota St. Summit 56 15 7 < 1% 30% X
136 USC PAC 12 56 9 10 89% 1% X
137 Stony Brook America East 56 14 8 X 30% X
138 Coastal Carolina Big South 55 15 5 < 1% 20% X
139 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 55 12 7 < 1% 22% X
140 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 55 14 7 < 1% 16% X
141 UC Irvine Big West 55 11 8 < 1% 15% X
142 James Madison Colonial Athletic 55 12 9 < 1% 15% X
143 Santa Clara West Coast 55 11 10 < 1% 3% X
144 Creighton Big East 54 8 12 97% < 1% X
145 Portland West Coast 54 12 9 < 1% 2% X
146 Rider Metro Atlantic 54 13 8 < 1% 19% X
147 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 54 14 7 < 1% 38% X
148 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 54 12 8 < 1% 13% X
149 E. Tennessee St. Southern 54 12 7 < 1% 16% X
150 Sacramento St. Big Sky 53 13 6 < 1% 22% X
151 Army Patriot League 53 12 6 < 1% 18% X
152 American Patriot League 52 11 9 < 1% 18% X
153 Albany America East 52 12 7 X 32% X
154 Missouri SEC 52 7 12 91% < 1% X
155 Lafayette Patriot League 52 11 8 < 1% 14% X
156 Cleveland St. Horizon 52 12 10 X 10% X
157 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 52 11 8 < 1% 13% X
158 Radford Big South 52 14 7 < 1% 15% X
159 Utah St. Mountain West 52 11 8 < 1% 3% X
160 Columbia Ivy League 51 9 7 > 99% 10% X
161 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 51 12 7 < 1% 9% X
162 Canisius Metro Atlantic 50 11 8 X 14% X
163 UAB Conference USA 50 10 10 < 1% 5% X
164 Incarnate Word Southland 50 11 5 X X X
165 Cal Poly Big West 50 10 8 < 1% 10% X
166 Norfolk St. Mideastern 50 14 9 X 20% X
167 San Diego West Coast 50 10 11 < 1% 2% X
168 UCSB Big West 50 9 9 < 1% 10% X
169 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 50 10 10 < 1% 2% X
170 Gardner-Webb Big South 50 13 9 X 12% X
171 Eastern Michigan MAC 50 12 7 < 1% 2% X
172 Charlotte Conference USA 50 8 11 < 1% 3% X
173 Charleston Southern Big South 49 12 7 X 13% X
174 Wright St. Horizon 49 11 10 X 6% X
175 Mississippi St. SEC 49 9 10 94% < 1% X
176 Virginia Tech ACC 49 8 11 97% < 1% X
177 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 48 11 8 X 8% X
178 New Mexico St. WAC 48 11 10 X 41% X
179 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 48 8 10 < 1% 1% X
180 Texas Southern Southwestern 48 9 11 X 32% X
181 Lehigh Patriot League 47 9 9 X 12% X
182 Bucknell Patriot League 47 11 10 < 1% 15% X
183 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 47 12 9 X 22% X
184 Robert Morris Northeast 47 10 10 X 21% X
185 North Dakota St. Summit 47 12 8 X 18% X
186 Alabama St. Southwestern 47 11 5 X 35% X
187 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 47 9 10 < 1% < 1% X
188 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 47 12 10 X 16% X
189 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 47 11 8 X 10% X
190 North Florida Atlantic Sun 47 13 9 X 29% X
191 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 46 10 9 X 16% X
192 Oakland Horizon 46 8 12 X 5% X
193 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 46 9 10 X 16% X
194 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 46 14 7 X 18% X
195 LA Monroe Sunbelt 46 12 8 X 12% X
196 Pacific West Coast 45 10 10 < 1% 1% X
197 New Jersey Tech Independent 45 12 10 X X X
198 UCF American Athletic 45 9 10 < 1% 1% X
199 Ohio MAC 45 7 10 < 1% 1% X
200 San Francisco West Coast 45 9 12 X 1% X
201 Mercer Southern 44 11 9 X 9% X
202 Northern Illinois MAC 44 8 9 < 1% 2% X
203 Oral Roberts Summit 44 10 10 X 14% X
204 Detroit Horizon 44 10 12 X 3% X
205 George Mason Atlantic 10 43 6 12 < 1% < 1% X
206 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 43 11 10 X 9% X
207 Fresno St. Mountain West 43 9 10 < 1% 1% X
208 Dartmouth Ivy League 43 8 8 98% 5% X
209 Vermont America East 42 11 9 X 16% X
210 Cornell Ivy League 42 9 9 > 99% 4% X
211 Montana Big Sky 42 10 8 X 10% X
212 Bryant Northeast 41 9 9 X 14% X
213 Hartford America East 41 11 9 X 11% X
214 Denver Summit 41 9 11 X 11% X
215 Delaware St. Mideastern 41 10 10 X 11% X
216 Northwestern St. Southland 40 9 9 X 6% X
217 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 40 7 12 X 1% X
218 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 40 11 9 X 6% X
219 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 40 8 8 < 1% 1% X
220 Ball State MAC 39 7 10 < 1% 1% X
221 New Hampshire America East 39 11 9 X 10% X
222 South Florida American Athletic 39 7 13 X < 1% X
223 FIU Conference USA 39 9 9 < 1% 1% X
224 Portland St. Big Sky 39 10 8 X 7% X
225 Holy Cross Patriot League 39 7 10 X 5% X
226 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 39 11 8 X 6% X
227 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 39 10 11 X 4% X
228 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 39 10 11 X 1% X
229 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 38 10 9 X 4% X
230 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 38 9 9 < 1% 1% X
231 Boston U. Patriot League 38 8 11 X 6% X
232 Brown Ivy League 38 9 10 X 1% X
233 Grand Canyon WAC 38 11 10 X X X
234 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 38 9 10 X 5% X
235 Princeton Ivy League 38 8 9 > 99% 3% X
236 UC Riverside Big West 38 9 11 X 4% X
237 Colgate Patriot League 37 9 12 X 7% X
238 Northern Arizona Big Sky 37 9 11 X 6% X
239 South Dakota Summit 37 10 11 X 9% X
240 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 37 9 11 X X X
241 Seattle WAC 37 10 9 X 21% X
242 Loyola Marymount West Coast 37 6 15 X < 1% X
243 Northern Colorado Big Sky 37 9 9 X 6% X
244 Elon Colonial Athletic 37 11 10 X 3% X
245 E. Carolina American Athletic 36 8 11 < 1% < 1% X
246 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 36 10 10 X 12% X
247 Winthrop Big South 36 10 9 X 5% X
248 IUPUI Summit 36 8 13 X 8% X
249 Air Force Mountain West 36 8 11 X < 1% X
250 North Texas Conference USA 36 8 11 X 1% X
251 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 36 9 12 X < 1% X
252 Houston American Athletic 36 7 12 X < 1% X
253 Duquesne Atlantic 10 36 6 12 X < 1% X
254 Western Carolina Southern 35 9 12 X 4% X
255 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 35 9 10 X 2% X
256 Fordham Atlantic 10 35 5 12 < 1% < 1% X
257 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 35 8 10 X X X
258 N.C. Asheville Big South 35 9 10 X 4% X
259 Lamar Southland 34 10 10 X X X
260 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 34 9 13 X 3% X
261 Bradley Missouri Valley 34 7 14 X < 1% X
262 CSU Fullerton Big West 34 8 12 X 2% X
263 Loyola-MD Patriot League 34 7 12 X 3% X
264 Youngstown St. Horizon 33 10 13 X 1% X
265 UMass-Lowell America East 33 9 12 X X X
266 VMI Southern 33 8 12 X 3% X
267 Miami OH MAC 33 7 12 X < 1% X
268 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 33 9 11 X 1% X
269 Weber St. Big Sky 33 8 11 X 3% X
270 Idaho Big Sky 33 8 10 X 4% X
271 Siena Metro Atlantic 33 8 11 X 3% X
272 Southern Southwestern 32 9 13 X 13% X
273 Sacred Heart Northeast 32 8 12 X 5% X
274 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 32 7 14 X X X
275 Towson Colonial Athletic 32 9 12 X 2% X
276 Howard Mideastern 31 10 10 X 5% X
277 Charleston Colonial Athletic 31 6 15 X 1% X
278 Utah Valley WAC 31 6 11 X 14% X
279 McNeese St. Southland 30 7 11 X 2% X
280 IPFW Summit 30 9 11 X 5% X
281 Rice Conference USA 30 6 11 X < 1% X
282 Nevada Mountain West 29 6 12 X < 1% X
283 Houston Baptist Southland 29 9 8 X X X
284 Drake Missouri Valley 29 4 16 X < 1% X
285 North Dakota Big Sky 29 6 12 X 2% X
286 CSU Northridge Big West 29 6 15 X 1% X
287 Nebraska Omaha Summit 29 8 11 X X X
288 Samford Southern 28 9 14 X 2% X
289 Pennsylvania Ivy League 28 5 10 X < 1% X
290 Navy Patriot League 28 6 13 X 2% X
291 New Orleans Southland 28 6 10 X 1% X
292 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 28 7 12 X 3% X
293 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 28 7 12 X 2% X
294 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 28 9 13 X < 1% X
295 Southern Miss Conference USA 27 6 12 X < 1% X
296 Abilene Christian Southland 27 8 11 X X X
297 Western Illinois Summit 27 7 11 X 4% X
298 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 26 7 13 X < 1% X
299 SE Louisiana Southland 26 5 14 X 1% X
300 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 26 8 11 X < 1% X
301 UMKC WAC 26 8 13 X 10% X
302 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 25 6 14 X 1% X
303 Drexel Colonial Athletic 25 5 14 X 1% X
304 Citadel Southern 25 8 12 X 1% X
305 UALR Sunbelt 25 7 12 X < 1% X
306 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 25 6 13 X 7% X
307 Furman Southern 25 6 13 X 1% X
308 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 24 7 15 X 2% X
309 Campbell Big South 24 8 14 X 1% X
310 Wagner Northeast 24 6 13 X 2% X
311 Hampton Mideastern 24 8 12 X 2% X
312 TX Pan American WAC 23 8 13 X 7% X
313 Troy Sunbelt 23 7 11 X < 1% X
314 Marshall Conference USA 23 5 15 X < 1% X
315 Ill. Chicago Horizon 23 5 16 X < 1% X
316 Savannah St. Mideastern 22 4 15 X 1% X
317 Delaware Colonial Athletic 21 4 15 X < 1% X
318 South Alabama Sunbelt 20 6 14 X < 1% X
319 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 19 6 15 X 1% X
320 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 19 5 15 X 4% X
321 Presbyterian Big South 19 7 15 X < 1% X
322 Longwood Big South 19 6 15 X < 1% X
323 Alabama A&M Southwestern 19 5 12 X 4% X
324 Nicholls St. Southland 19 5 12 X < 1% X
325 Southern Utah Big Sky 18 5 13 X < 1% X
326 Jackson St. Southwestern 18 5 15 X 4% X
327 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 18 6 14 X 4% X
328 N.C. Greensboro Southern 17 6 15 X < 1% X
329 Niagara Metro Atlantic 17 3 16 X < 1% X
330 Montana St. Big Sky 16 4 15 X < 1% X
331 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 14 7 15 X 1% X
332 Morgan St. Mideastern 14 4 16 X < 1% X
333 San Jose St. Mountain West 14 2 17 X X X
334 Idaho St. Big Sky 13 5 15 X < 1% X
335 Coppin St. Mideastern 12 2 17 X < 1% X
336 N.C. A&T Mideastern 12 5 17 X < 1% X
337 Chicago St. WAC 12 4 17 X 2% X
338 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 10 6 15 X < 1% X
339 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 10 3 18 X < 1% X
340 Stetson Atlantic Sun 9 5 15 X < 1% X
341 Liberty Big South 9 6 15 X < 1% X
342 Maine America East 9 2 18 X < 1% X
343 UMBC America East 8 3 17 X < 1% X
344 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 8 2 18 X 1% X
345 Grambling Southwestern 7 2 15 X 1% X
346 Alcorn St. Southwestern 6 3 15 X 1% X
347 Marist Metro Atlantic 6 2 18 X < 1% X
348 Central Conn. St. Northeast 6 3 18 X < 1% X
349 Binghamton America East 4 2 20 X < 1% X
350 Central Arkansas Southland -4 0 18 X X X
351 Florida A&M Mideastern -8 0 20 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot