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NCAA Basketball - Week 16 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 46 and 47. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - BYU, Texas, Xavier, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, Boise St.
First 6 teams out - N.C. State, Stanford, Syracuse, Illinois, Rhode Island, Tulsa


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Kentucky SEC 120 29 0 100% 100% 100%
2 Virginia ACC 116 27 1 100% 100% 100%
3 Villanova Big East 113 27 2 100% 100% 100%
4 Duke ACC 112 26 3 100% 100% 100%
5 Wisconsin Big 10 109 25 3 100% 100% 100%
6 Kansas Big 12 107 23 6 100% 100% 100%
7 Arizona PAC 12 106 26 3 100% 100% 100%
8 Gonzaga West Coast 102 29 2 100% 100% 100%
9 Maryland Big 10 100 24 5 100% > 99% > 99%
10 Baylor Big 12 98 22 7 100% > 99% > 99%
11 Louisville ACC 98 23 6 100% > 99% > 99%
12 Notre Dame ACC 95 24 5 100% > 99% > 99%
13 Oklahoma Big 12 94 20 8 100% > 99% > 99%
14 West Virginia Big 12 94 22 7 100% > 99% > 99%
15 Iowa St. Big 12 94 20 8 100% > 99% > 99%
16 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 93 26 3 100% > 99% > 99%
17 Arkansas SEC 93 23 6 100% > 99% > 99%
18 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 93 27 3 100% > 99% > 99%
19 Utah PAC 12 93 22 6 100% > 99% > 99%
20 North Carolina ACC 92 20 9 100% > 99% > 99%
21 Butler Big East 91 20 8 100% > 99% 80%
22 Georgetown Big East 90 18 8 100% > 99% > 99%
23 Providence Big East 89 19 9 100% > 99% 70%
24 Southern Methodist American Athletic 87 22 5 100% 99% 67%
25 VCU Atlantic 10 87 21 8 100% > 99% 94%
26 St. John's Big East 87 20 9 100% > 99% < 1%
27 LSU SEC 86 21 8 100% 99% < 1%
28 Texas A&M SEC 86 20 8 100% 98% 1%
29 Michigan St. Big 10 85 19 9 100% 96% 55%
30 Georgia SEC 85 19 9 > 99% 98% < 1%
31 Dayton Atlantic 10 84 22 6 > 99% 93% < 1%
32 Iowa Big 10 83 19 10 > 99% 91% < 1%
33 Ohio St. Big 10 83 20 8 100% 90% < 1%
34 Indiana Big 10 83 19 10 100% 90% 9%
35 Oregon PAC 12 83 21 8 > 99% 90% < 1%
36 Colorado St. Mountain West 83 23 5 > 99% 85% < 1%
37 Purdue Big 10 82 19 9 100% 84% < 1%
38 Oklahoma St. Big 12 82 17 11 100% 83% 11%
39 Davidson Atlantic 10 82 21 6 > 99% 76% < 1%
40 San Diego St. Mountain West 81 22 7 > 99% 78% < 1%
41 BYU West Coast 81 22 8 99% 82% < 1%
42 Texas Big 12 81 17 12 100% 73% 1%
43 Xavier Big East 80 18 12 > 99% 74% 30%
44 Ole Miss SEC 80 19 10 > 99% 63% < 1%
45 Pittsburgh ACC 80 19 10 > 99% 60% < 1%
46 Boise St. Mountain West 79 22 7 99% 55% < 1%
Cutline - Click Here to View 83 Line Movers
47 N.C. State ACC 79 17 12 > 99% 55% < 1%
48 Stanford PAC 12 79 18 9 > 99% 54% < 1%
49 Syracuse ACC 78 18 11 X X X
50 Illinois Big 10 77 18 11 > 99% 31% < 1%
51 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 77 20 7 > 99% 30% < 1%
52 Tulsa American Athletic 77 21 7 > 99% 33% < 1%
53 St. Mary's West Coast 77 21 8 99% 23% < 1%
54 Old Dominion Conference USA 77 22 6 28% 30% X
55 UCLA PAC 12 76 17 12 97% 22% < 1%
56 Temple American Athletic 76 20 9 83% 22% < 1%
57 Miami ACC 76 18 11 > 99% 16% < 1%
58 Murray St. Ohio Valley 75 26 4 < 1% 51% < 1%
59 Stephen F. Austin Southland 75 24 4 4% 51% X
60 Cincinnati American Athletic 75 20 9 82% 18% < 1%
61 Wofford Southern 75 25 6 < 1% 46% < 1%
62 Valparaiso Horizon 75 26 5 26% 43% < 1%
63 Seton Hall Big East 75 16 12 > 99% 8% < 1%
64 Clemson ACC 74 16 12 > 99% 6% < 1%
65 Iona Metro Atlantic 73 24 6 < 1% 46% X
66 Green Bay Horizon 73 23 7 < 1% 37% X
67 Kansas St. Big 12 73 15 15 38% 3% < 1%
68 Alabama SEC 73 17 12 > 99% 3% < 1%
69 Minnesota Big 10 72 17 12 98% 3% < 1%
70 UC Davis Big West 72 22 5 2% 38% X
71 TCU Big 12 72 17 12 > 99% 2% < 1%
72 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 72 23 7 < 1% 24% X
73 Buffalo MAC 71 19 9 < 1% 23% X
74 Vanderbilt SEC 71 17 12 49% 2% X
75 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 70 17 12 31% 6% X
76 Oregon St. PAC 12 70 17 11 97% 3% < 1%
77 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 70 18 11 55% 5% X
78 Harvard Ivy League 70 20 6 > 99% 68% X
79 Florida SEC 69 14 15 97% 1% X
80 Arizona St. PAC 12 69 15 13 83% 3% X
81 Michigan Big 10 69 14 14 87% 1% < 1%
82 Richmond Atlantic 10 69 17 12 < 1% 6% X
83 South Carolina SEC 68 14 13 98% 1% X
84 Tennessee SEC 68 14 14 > 99% 1% X
85 UTEP Conference USA 68 19 9 3% 18% X
86 California PAC 12 67 16 12 88% 2% X
87 Connecticut American Athletic 67 16 11 < 1% 7% X
88 Yale Ivy League 67 20 8 57% 32% X
89 Toledo MAC 67 19 10 < 1% 22% X
90 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 67 19 11 < 1% 6% X
91 Wyoming Mountain West 67 21 8 54% 10% X
92 Central Michigan MAC 65 20 6 < 1% 20% X
93 Florida St. ACC 64 15 15 31% < 1% X
94 Penn State Big 10 64 15 14 3% 1% X
95 Bowling Green MAC 64 19 8 < 1% 16% X
96 Northwestern Big 10 63 14 15 < 1% 1% X
97 Washington PAC 12 63 14 13 77% 1% X
98 UNLV Mountain West 63 16 13 < 1% 6% X
99 High Point Big South 63 22 8 < 1% 31% X
100 Sam Houston St. Southland 62 22 6 < 1% 31% X
101 Nebraska Big 10 62 13 15 < 1% < 1% X
102 Evansville Missouri Valley 62 19 11 < 1% 4% X
103 Chattanooga Southern 62 22 9 X 27% X
104 Kent State MAC 61 19 10 < 1% 9% X
105 Utah St. Mountain West 61 18 10 < 1% 7% X
106 Creighton Big East 61 12 16 < 1% < 1% X
107 Wake Forest ACC 61 12 16 1% < 1% X
108 Georgia St. Sunbelt 61 20 9 < 1% 33% X
109 Eastern Washington Big Sky 61 21 8 < 1% 29% X
110 La Salle Atlantic 10 61 15 14 < 1% 2% X
111 Memphis American Athletic 61 17 12 1% 5% X
112 N.C. Central Mideastern 60 21 6 X 41% X
113 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 60 20 11 < 1% 28% X
114 Georgia Tech ACC 60 12 17 < 1% < 1% X
115 Pepperdine West Coast 60 17 12 X 4% X
116 Marquette Big East 60 11 16 < 1% < 1% X
117 Texas Tech Big 12 59 13 17 < 1% < 1% X
118 Western Kentucky Conference USA 59 18 10 < 1% 9% X
119 Colorado PAC 12 59 12 15 < 1% 1% X
120 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 59 15 12 < 1% 2% X
121 UC Irvine Big West 59 17 11 < 1% 15% X
122 Albany America East 59 21 8 X 42% X
123 South Dakota St. Summit 59 21 9 X 29% X
124 Western Michigan MAC 59 17 11 < 1% 4% X
125 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 58 18 12 X 4% X
126 Hawaii Big West 58 19 10 X 13% X
127 DePaul Big East 58 12 18 < 1% < 1% X
128 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 57 21 9 X 36% X
129 Auburn SEC 57 12 17 < 1% < 1% X
130 Long Beach St. Big West 57 14 15 X 10% X
131 UCSB Big West 57 15 12 X 13% X
132 Rider Metro Atlantic 57 20 10 X 21% X
133 Washington St. PAC 12 56 12 15 < 1% 1% X
134 New Mexico St. WAC 56 18 10 X 56% X
135 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 56 17 11 X 19% X
136 James Madison Colonial Athletic 56 19 12 X 16% X
137 Akron MAC 56 17 11 X 4% X
138 San Diego West Coast 56 15 15 X 2% X
139 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 56 20 7 X 27% X
140 Stony Brook America East 55 21 10 X 27% X
141 Portland West Coast 55 16 14 < 1% 2% X
142 Radford Big South 55 21 10 X 19% X
143 Sacramento St. Big Sky 55 19 8 X 26% X
144 Cleveland St. Horizon 54 17 13 X 8% X
145 UAB Conference USA 54 16 13 X 9% X
146 Belmont Ohio Valley 54 19 10 X 21% X
147 Oakland Horizon 53 16 15 X 9% X
148 Boston College ACC 53 10 18 < 1% < 1% X
149 Coastal Carolina Big South 53 21 9 X 15% X
150 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 53 19 10 X 11% X
151 Charleston Southern Big South 53 19 10 X 15% X
152 Bucknell Patriot League 53 18 13 X 24% X
153 North Dakota St. Summit 53 19 10 X 25% X
154 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 52 21 10 X 33% X
155 Rutgers Big 10 52 10 19 < 1% < 1% X
156 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 52 17 12 X 16% X
157 Lafayette Patriot League 52 17 12 X 16% X
158 Texas Southern Southwestern 51 16 12 X 40% X
159 New Mexico Mountain West 51 14 15 < 1% 2% X
160 Mississippi St. SEC 51 12 17 < 1% < 1% X
161 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 51 19 12 X 12% X
162 LA Monroe Sunbelt 51 19 10 X 19% X
163 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 50 15 13 X 4% X
164 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 50 15 15 X 2% X
165 Incarnate Word Southland 50 17 8 X X X
166 Tulane American Athletic 50 14 14 X 1% X
167 North Florida Atlantic Sun 50 20 11 X 40% X
168 Eastern Michigan MAC 50 17 12 < 1% 2% X
169 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 50 18 11 X 9% X
170 Norfolk St. Mideastern 50 18 11 X 22% X
171 USC PAC 12 49 11 18 X < 1% X
172 Lehigh Patriot League 49 15 13 X 17% X
173 Montana Big Sky 49 17 11 X 16% X
174 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 49 12 16 X 1% X
175 Gardner-Webb Big South 48 18 13 X 8% X
176 Oral Roberts Summit 48 17 13 X 16% X
177 Santa Clara West Coast 48 13 17 X 1% X
178 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 48 16 12 X 7% X
179 Virginia Tech ACC 48 10 19 < 1% < 1% X
180 Northwestern St. Southland 48 15 10 X 9% X
181 Missouri SEC 48 8 21 X < 1% X
182 Fresno St. Mountain West 47 13 15 X 2% X
183 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 47 16 13 X 5% X
184 Mercer Southern 47 17 13 X 10% X
185 San Francisco West Coast 47 13 17 X 1% X
186 New Jersey Tech Independent 47 17 11 X X X
187 Canisius Metro Atlantic 47 16 13 X 8% X
188 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 46 17 13 X 19% X
189 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 46 21 10 X 17% X
190 Charlotte Conference USA 46 13 16 X 2% X
191 Cal Poly Big West 46 13 14 X 5% X
192 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 46 17 12 X 9% X
193 Columbia Ivy League 46 13 13 X < 1% X
194 American Patriot League 46 15 15 X 10% X
195 E. Tennessee St. Southern 46 16 13 X 8% X
196 Robert Morris Northeast 45 16 14 X 17% X
197 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 45 15 13 X 9% X
198 North Texas Conference USA 45 14 14 X 2% X
199 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 45 16 14 X 7% X
200 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 45 15 14 X 13% X
201 Northern Illinois MAC 45 12 15 X 1% X
202 Northern Arizona Big Sky 44 16 13 X 12% X
203 Detroit Horizon 44 14 17 X 2% X
204 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 44 14 16 - X -
205 New Hampshire America East 44 18 11 X 10% X
206 Vermont America East 44 17 12 X 16% X
207 UC Riverside Big West 43 14 14 X 5% X
208 Colgate Patriot League 43 15 16 X 14% X
209 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 43 15 13 X 6% X
210 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 43 16 12 X 6% X
211 Winthrop Big South 43 17 12 X 7% X
212 Alabama St. Southwestern 43 16 8 X 26% X
213 E. Carolina American Athletic 43 13 16 X 1% X
214 Bryant Northeast 42 15 14 X 19% X
215 Princeton Ivy League 42 13 14 X < 1% X
216 Air Force Mountain West 42 13 15 X 1% X
217 IPFW Summit 42 16 13 X 11% X
218 UCF American Athletic 42 12 16 X < 1% X
219 George Mason Atlantic 10 41 9 19 X < 1% X
220 Pacific West Coast 41 12 17 X < 1% X
221 Holy Cross Patriot League 41 12 15 X 4% X
222 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 41 15 14 X 8% X
223 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 41 13 14 X 2% X
224 Duquesne Atlantic 10 40 10 17 X < 1% X
225 Boston U. Patriot League 40 13 16 X 8% X
226 Cornell Ivy League 40 13 15 X X X
227 Fordham Atlantic 10 40 9 18 X < 1% X
228 Army Patriot League 40 14 14 X 4% X
229 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 40 11 18 X < 1% X
230 South Dakota Summit 40 16 15 X 9% X
231 Lamar Southland 40 15 13 X X X
232 Portland St. Big Sky 39 14 12 X 5% X
233 Dartmouth Ivy League 39 12 14 X X X
234 Miami OH MAC 39 12 17 X < 1% X
235 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 38 10 19 X < 1% X
236 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 38 15 16 X 2% X
237 Western Carolina Southern 38 14 16 X 4% X
238 Loyola Marymount West Coast 36 8 22 X < 1% X
239 Brown Ivy League 36 13 16 X X X
240 Idaho Big Sky 36 13 14 X 4% X
241 Grand Canyon WAC 36 16 14 X X X
242 Denver Summit 36 12 17 X 5% X
243 Ohio MAC 35 9 18 X < 1% X
244 FIU Conference USA 35 13 16 X 1% X
245 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 35 13 16 - X -
246 Sacred Heart Northeast 35 14 16 X 5% X
247 Northern Colorado Big Sky 35 14 14 X 5% X
248 N.C. Asheville Big South 35 14 15 X 3% X
249 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 35 13 14 X 2% X
250 Drake Missouri Valley 35 9 21 X < 1% X
251 Hartford America East 34 14 15 X 4% X
252 Elon Colonial Athletic 34 14 17 X 2% X
253 South Florida American Athletic 34 8 20 X < 1% X
254 Seattle WAC 34 14 13 X 13% X
255 Drexel Colonial Athletic 34 11 18 X 2% X
256 Delaware St. Mideastern 34 13 16 X 5% X
257 Houston American Athletic 34 9 18 X < 1% X
258 UALR Sunbelt 34 13 16 X 2% X
259 Southern Southwestern 34 15 15 X 12% X
260 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 34 13 16 X 1% X
261 Loyola-MD Patriot League 33 11 18 X 2% X
262 Navy Patriot League 33 11 18 X 2% X
263 Howard Mideastern 33 15 14 X 6% X
264 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 33 13 17 X 2% X
265 Marshall Conference USA 33 11 18 X < 1% X
266 Wright St. Horizon 32 11 19 X 1% X
267 Rice Conference USA 32 10 17 X < 1% X
268 Weber St. Big Sky 32 12 15 X 2% X
269 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 32 11 20 X < 1% X
270 Samford Southern 31 13 18 X 1% X
271 McNeese St. Southland 31 12 15 X 1% X
272 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 31 12 15 X 1% X
273 Delaware Colonial Athletic 31 10 19 X 3% X
274 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 31 11 16 X 1% X
275 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 31 12 17 X 4% X
276 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 30 12 16 X 10% X
277 VMI Southern 30 11 17 X 2% X
278 Nevada Mountain West 30 9 19 X < 1% X
279 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 30 13 16 X 5% X
280 IUPUI Summit 30 10 20 X 4% X
281 UMKC WAC 30 13 17 X 11% X
282 UMass-Lowell America East 29 12 17 - X -
283 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 29 10 17 X X X
284 Hampton Mideastern 29 12 15 X 4% X
285 Towson Colonial Athletic 29 12 19 X 1% X
286 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 29 12 18 - X -
287 Houston Baptist Southland 28 11 14 X X X
288 Siena Metro Atlantic 28 10 18 X 1% X
289 Southern Miss Conference USA 28 9 19 X < 1% X
290 Youngstown St. Horizon 28 11 20 X < 1% X
291 CSU Northridge Big West 28 9 22 X 1% X
292 Bradley Missouri Valley 27 8 23 X < 1% X
293 Ball State MAC 27 7 20 X < 1% X
294 Pennsylvania Ivy League 27 7 18 X X X
295 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 27 13 17 X 9% X
296 Nebraska Omaha Summit 26 11 17 X X X
297 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 26 12 19 - < 1% -
298 CSU Fullerton Big West 25 9 20 X < 1% X
299 Charleston Colonial Athletic 24 8 23 X 1% X
300 Citadel Southern 24 11 18 X 1% X
301 New Orleans Southland 24 9 15 X < 1% X
302 Ill. Chicago Horizon 23 8 23 X < 1% X
303 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 23 8 19 X < 1% X
304 Wagner Northeast 23 10 19 X 2% X
305 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 22 10 18 X 4% X
306 South Alabama Sunbelt 22 9 20 X < 1% X
307 SE Louisiana Southland 22 9 19 X < 1% X
308 Utah Valley WAC 22 9 18 X 4% X
309 Niagara Metro Atlantic 22 7 21 X < 1% X
310 Troy Sunbelt 22 10 18 X < 1% X
311 Southern Utah Big Sky 21 9 18 X < 1% X
312 N.C. Greensboro Southern 21 10 21 X < 1% X
313 Jackson St. Southwestern 21 10 18 X 4% X
314 Campbell Big South 20 10 21 X < 1% X
315 Presbyterian Big South 20 10 21 X < 1% X
316 Furman Southern 20 8 21 X < 1% X
317 Savannah St. Mideastern 20 8 19 X 1% X
318 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 19 7 22 X < 1% X
319 North Dakota Big Sky 19 8 20 X < 1% X
320 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 19 10 21 X 1% X
321 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 19 10 20 X 1% X
322 Nicholls St. Southland 18 7 18 X < 1% X
323 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 18 8 22 - X -
324 Western Illinois Summit 18 8 19 X 1% X
325 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 17 8 21 - X -
326 Longwood Big South 17 9 22 X < 1% X
327 TX Pan American WAC 16 9 19 X 4% X
328 Alabama A&M Southwestern 16 8 17 X 3% X
329 Abilene Christian Southland 16 8 19 X X X
330 Chicago St. WAC 16 8 22 X 3% X
331 Coppin St. Mideastern 16 6 21 X < 1% X
332 Montana St. Big Sky 16 7 22 X < 1% X
333 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 14 10 21 X 1% X
334 Morgan St. Mideastern 13 7 22 X < 1% X
335 Stetson Atlantic Sun 13 9 21 X < 1% X
336 Marist Metro Atlantic 13 6 23 X < 1% X
337 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 12 10 19 X < 1% X
338 N.C. A&T Mideastern 11 8 21 X < 1% X
339 Binghamton America East 9 6 25 X < 1% X
340 Liberty Big South 9 8 23 X < 1% X
341 San Jose St. Mountain West 9 2 26 X X X
342 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 8 5 26 - X -
343 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 7 5 24 X 1% X
344 Idaho St. Big Sky 7 6 22 X < 1% X
345 Central Conn. St. Northeast 5 5 26 - X -
346 Maine America East 4 3 26 X < 1% X
347 UMBC America East 3 4 25 X < 1% X
348 Alcorn St. Southwestern 0 4 22 X < 1% X
349 Central Arkansas Southland -2 2 24 X X X
350 Grambling Southwestern -4 2 23 X < 1% X
351 Florida A&M Mideastern -10 1 27 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot