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Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Last 6 teams in - BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Indiana, Boise St., Temple, Miami
First 6 teams out - Texas A&M, UCLA, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Valparaiso, Rhode Island
Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments
So how well did we do in predicting what team made the tournament? This year we had 3 teams that did not make tournament as we predicted, Colorado St., Temple, and Miami. These teams were replaced with UCLA, Ole Miss, and Cincinnati. The cutline was separated by a MWP of 79 and 78 points. Four of these 6 teams were ranked at those MWP numbers, with Cincinnati located one additional point lower at 77. The only outlier (there always seems to be one) was Colorado St. which was ranked 11 spots higher at a MWP of 84. Guess the NCAA selection committee does not show much love to mid-major conference teams. :( We will be working to make the list more accurate next year.
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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities