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Wed Mar 15 9:00 am

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 49 and 50. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Middle Tenn., Illinois St., Providence, Marquette, Michigan St., Kansas St.
First 6 teams out - Georgia, Vanderbilt, Clemson, California, TCU, Illinois

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Villanova Big East 118 31 3 - 100% -
2 Kansas Big 12 111 28 4 - 100% -
3 Kentucky SEC 110 29 5 - 100% -
4 Arizona PAC 12 110 30 3 - 100% -
5 Duke ACC 107 27 8 - 100% -
6 North Carolina ACC 107 27 7 - 100% -
7 Louisville ACC 104 24 8 - 100% -
8 Oregon PAC 12 103 28 5 - 100% -
9 Gonzaga West Coast 103 30 1 - 100% -
10 Florida St. ACC 102 25 8 - 100% -
11 Baylor Big 12 101 25 7 - 100% -
12 UCLA PAC 12 101 27 4 - 100% -
13 Florida SEC 101 24 7 - 100% -
14 Notre Dame ACC 101 25 9 - 100% -
15 Southern Methodist American Athletic Am. Athletic 100 30 4 - 100% -
16 Virginia ACC 98 22 10 - 100% -
17 Purdue Big 10 98 25 7 - 100% -
18 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 97 29 5 - 100% -
19 West Virginia Big 12 96 26 8 - 100% -
20 Wisconsin Big 10 96 25 9 - 100% -
21 Butler Big East 96 22 8 - 100% -
22 Creighton Big East 95 25 9 - 100% -
23 Iowa St. Big 12 94 23 10 - 100% -
24 Minnesota Big 10 93 24 9 - 100% -
25 Maryland Big 10 93 24 8 - 100% -
26 Michigan Big 10 92 24 11 - 100% -
27 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 91 30 4 - 100% -
28 St. Mary's West Coast 91 27 4 - 100% -
29 Arkansas SEC 91 25 9 - 100% -
30 Virginia Tech ACC 90 22 10 - 100% -
31 VCU Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 90 26 8 - 100% -
32 Miami ACC 89 21 11 - 100% -
33 Seton Hall Big East 87 20 11 - 100% -
34 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 87 28 5 - 100% -
35 Dayton Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 87 24 7 - 100% -
36 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 87 23 11 - 100% -
37 South Carolina SEC 87 22 10 - 100% -
38 Xavier Big East 86 21 13 - 100% -
39 Oklahoma St. Big 12 86 20 12 - 100% -
40 N.C. Wilmington N.C. Wilming. Colonial Athletic 86 29 5 - 100% -
41 USC PAC 12 85 23 9 - 100% -
42 Wake Forest ACC 85 19 13 - 100% -
43 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 84 24 9 - 100% -
44 Middle Tenn. Conference USA Conf. USA 84 30 4 - 100% -
45 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 82 27 6 - 100% -
46 Providence Provid. Big East 82 20 12 - 100% -
47 Marquette Big East 82 19 12 - 100% -
48 Michigan St. Big 10 81 19 14 - 100% -
49 Kansas St. Big 12 80 20 13 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
50 Georgia SEC 80 19 14 - X -
51 Vanderbilt SEC 80 18 15 - X -
52 Vermont America East 80 29 5 - 100% -
53 Clemson ACC 80 17 15 - X -
54 E. Tennessee St. E. Tenn. St. Southern 77 27 7 - 100% -
55 California Calif. PAC 12 77 20 12 - X -
56 TCU Big 12 76 19 15 - X -
57 Illinois Big 10 76 18 14 - X -
58 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 76 27 6 - X -
59 Syracuse ACC 76 18 14 - X -
60 Ole Miss SEC 75 20 13 - X -
61 Indiana Big 10 75 18 15 - X -
62 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 75 22 10 - X -
63 Charleston Colonial Athletic 75 25 9 - X -
64 New Mexico St. WAC 74 27 5 - 100% -
65 Iowa Big 10 74 18 14 - X -
66 Pittsburgh ACC 74 16 17 - X -
67 Alabama SEC 74 19 14 - X -
68 Winthrop Big South 73 25 6 - 100% -
69 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 73 24 8 - X -
70 Princeton Ivy League 72 23 6 - 100% -
71 BYU West Coast 72 22 11 - X -
72 Akron MAC 72 26 8 - X -
73 Tennessee SEC 72 15 16 - X -
74 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 71 21 11 - X -
75 Georgia Tech ACC 71 17 15 - X -
76 Belmont Ohio Valley 71 22 6 - X -
77 Ohio St. Big 10 70 17 15 - X -
78 Valparaiso Horizon 70 24 8 - X -
79 Auburn SEC 70 18 14 - X -
80 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 70 23 11 - X -
81 Utah PAC 12 70 20 11 - X -
82 N.C. Greensboro N.C. Greens-boro Southern 70 25 9 - X -
83 Richmond Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 70 20 12 - X -
84 Texas A&M SEC 69 16 15 - X -
85 Bucknell Patriot League 69 26 8 - 100% -
86 Colorado PAC 12 69 19 14 - X -
87 Texas Tech Big 12 69 17 14 - X -
88 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 68 26 7 - 100% -
89 N.C. Asheville Big South 67 23 9 - X -
90 Penn State Big 10 67 15 18 - X -
91 Georgetown George-town Big East 66 14 18 - X -
92 Boise St. Mountain West Mntn West 66 19 11 - X -
93 St. Bonaventure St. Bonavent. Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 66 20 12 - X -
94 N.C. State ACC 66 15 17 - X -
95 Oakland Horizon 66 24 8 - X -
96 Davidson Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 65 17 15 - X -
97 Fresno St. Mountain West Mntn West 65 20 12 - X -
98 Geo. Washington Geo. Wash. Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 65 19 14 - X -
99 George Mason Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 64 20 13 - X -
100 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 64 19 13 - X -
101 Stanford PAC 12 63 14 17 - X -
102 St. John's Big East 63 14 19 - X -
103 San Francisco West Coast 63 20 12 - X -
104 Furman Southern 62 21 11 - X -
105 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 62 17 14 - X -
106 Mississippi St. SEC 62 16 16 - X -
107 Northern Kentucky Horizon 62 23 10 - 100% -
108 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 62 21 9 - X -
109 Nebraska Big 10 61 12 18 - X -
110 Arizona St. PAC 12 61 15 18 - X -
111 Towson Colonial Athletic 61 20 13 - X -
112 Iona Metro Atlantic 60 22 12 - 100% -
113 San Diego St. Mountain West Mntn West 60 18 14 - X -
114 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 60 16 16 - X -
115 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 60 16 17 - X -
116 Grand Canyon WAC 60 22 9 - X -
117 La Salle Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 58 15 15 - X -
118 Chattanooga Chattan. Southern 58 19 12 - X -
119 Texas Big 12 58 11 22 - X -
120 Georgia St. Sunbelt 58 20 12 - X -
121 South Dakota Summit 58 22 11 - X -
122 Oklahoma Big 12 58 11 20 - X -
123 Rutgers Big 10 58 15 18 - X -
124 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 57 20 12 - X -
125 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 57 21 12 - X -
126 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 57 15 17 - X -
127 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 57 23 10 - X -
128 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 56 19 12 - X -
129 Ohio MAC 56 19 11 - X -
130 Kent State MAC 56 22 13 - 100% -
131 Wright St. Horizon 56 20 12 - X -
132 Santa Clara West Coast 56 17 15 - X -
133 Texas Southern Southwestern SWAC 56 23 10 - 100% -
134 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 56 17 13 - X -
135 North Dakota St. Summit 56 19 11 - X -
136 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 55 16 14 - X -
137 Harvard Ivy League 54 18 10 - X -
138 Yale Ivy League 54 18 11 - X -
139 Lehigh Patriot League 54 19 12 - X -
140 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 54 17 16 - X -
141 Washington St. Wash. St. PAC 12 54 13 18 - X -
142 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 54 19 13 - X -
143 Ball State MAC 53 21 12 - X -
144 Albany America East 53 21 13 - X -
145 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 53 20 15 - X -
146 Nebraska Omaha Summit 53 18 14 - X -
147 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 53 14 16 - X -
148 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 53 22 11 - X -
149 Loyola Marymount Loyola Marymnt West Coast 52 14 15 - X -
150 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 52 18 14 - X -
151 Elon Colonial Athletic 52 18 14 - X -
152 New Orleans Southland South-land 52 19 11 - 100% -
153 LSU SEC 51 10 21 - X -
154 Troy Sunbelt 51 22 14 - 100% -
155 North Dakota Big Sky 51 22 9 - 100% -
156 Samford Southern 51 19 15 - X -
157 UC Irvine Big West 51 21 14 - X -
158 New Hampshire America East 51 20 12 - X -
159 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 51 18 14 - X -
160 Eastern Washington Eastern Wash. Big Sky 51 22 11 - X -
161 Northeastern N. Eastern Colonial Athletic 51 15 16 - X -
162 Massachusetts Mass. Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 50 15 18 - X -
163 IPFW Summit 50 19 12 - X -
164 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 50 21 12 - X -
165 Siena Metro Atlantic 50 17 17 - X -
166 Buffalo MAC 50 17 15 - X -
167 Green Bay Horizon 49 18 13 - X -
168 N.C. Central Mideastern Mid-Eastern 49 25 8 - 100% -
169 Stony Brook America East 49 18 13 - X -
170 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 49 15 16 - X -
171 Liberty Big South 49 19 13 - X -
172 Gardner-Webb Big South 49 19 14 - X -
173 Texas A&M C.C. Southland South-land 49 19 11 - X -
174 Canisius Metro Atlantic 49 18 15 - X -
175 Jacksonville St. Jack.ville St. Ohio Valley 48 20 14 - 100% -
176 Toledo MAC 48 17 16 - X -
177 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 48 20 13 - X -
178 Western Michigan MAC 48 16 16 - X -
179 Boston College ACC 48 9 23 - X -
180 Mercer Southern 48 14 17 - X -
181 Evansville Missouri Valley 48 16 17 - X -
182 UC Davis Big West 48 22 12 - 100% -
183 E. Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 15 18 - X -
184 Tennessee St. Tenn. St. Ohio Valley 48 17 13 - X -
185 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 47 20 13 - X -
186 UMBC America East 47 18 12 - X -
187 Wofford Southern 47 16 17 - X -
188 South Dakota St. Summit 47 18 15 - 100% -
189 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 47 16 16 - X -
190 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 47 19 15 - 100% -
191 DePaul Big East 46 9 22 - X -
192 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 46 16 14 - X -
193 San Jose St. Mountain West Mntn West 46 14 16 - X -
194 Boston U. Patriot League 46 17 14 - X -
195 Sam Houston St. Southland South-land 46 21 13 - X -
196 Coastal Carolina Coast. Car. Sunbelt 45 16 17 - X -
197 UMKC WAC 45 17 16 - X -
198 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 45 11 20 - X -
199 Washington Wash. PAC 12 45 9 22 - X -
200 Rider Metro Atlantic 45 18 15 - X -
201 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 45 15 17 - X -
202 UAB Conference USA Conf. USA 44 17 16 - X -
203 Houston Baptist Southland South-land 44 17 13 - X -
204 Denver Summit 44 16 14 - X -
205 San Diego West Coast 43 13 17 - X -
206 Weber St. Big Sky 43 19 13 - X -
207 Eastern Michigan MAC 43 16 17 - X -
208 Fordham Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 43 13 19 - X -
209 Pennsylvania Penn. Ivy League 43 13 15 - X -
210 Stephen F. Austin Southland South-land 43 18 14 - X -
211 Bradley Missouri Valley 41 13 20 - X -
212 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 41 19 12 - X -
213 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 41 12 21 - X -
214 Central Michigan MAC 41 16 16 - X -
215 Idaho Big Sky 41 18 13 - X -
216 Montana Big Sky 40 16 16 - X -
217 Navy Patriot League 40 16 16 - X -
218 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 40 14 16 - X -
219 Missouri SEC 39 8 24 - X -
220 Long Beach St. Big West 39 15 19 - X -
221 Holy Cross Patriot League 39 15 17 - X -
222 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 39 11 21 - X -
223 Radford Big South 39 14 18 - X -
224 Loyola-MD Patriot League 39 15 16 - X -
225 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 39 17 15 - X -
226 Utah Valley WAC 39 15 15 - X -
227 IUPUI Summit 38 14 18 - X -
228 High Point Big South 38 14 16 - X -
229 Lamar Southland South-land 38 18 14 - X -
230 Western Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 38 15 17 - X -
231 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 38 11 20 - X -
232 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 37 15 17 - X -
233 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 37 13 17 - X -
234 Campbell Big South 37 17 17 - X -
235 Pacific West Coast 37 11 21 - X -
236 North Florida Atlantic Sun 36 15 19 - X -
237 UALR Sunbelt 36 14 17 - X -
238 Delaware Colonial Athletic 36 13 20 - X -
239 Murray St. Ohio Valley 36 16 17 - X -
240 South Alabama Sunbelt 36 14 18 - X -
241 Northern Illinois MAC 35 15 17 - X -
242 CSU Fullerton Big West 35 17 14 - X -
243 Bowling Green MAC 35 13 19 - X -
244 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 35 11 21 - X -
245 Portland West Coast 35 11 22 - X -
246 Duquesne Atlantic 10 Atl. 10 34 10 22 - X -
247 Ill. Chicago Horizon 34 15 18 - X -
248 Norfolk St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 34 17 16 - X -
249 Wagner Northeast 34 16 14 - X -
250 Alcorn St. Southwestern SWAC 33 18 14 - X -
251 Montana St. Big Sky 33 16 16 - X -
252 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 32 14 15 - X -
253 SE Louisiana Southland South-land 32 15 16 - X -
254 Pepperdine Pepperd. West Coast 32 9 22 - X -
255 Nicholls St. Southland South-land 32 14 17 - X -
256 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 32 15 18 - X -
257 Hawaii Big West 31 14 16 - X -
258 Citadel Southern 31 12 21 - X -
259 Columbia Ivy League 31 10 16 - X -
260 Jacksonville Jack.ville Atlantic Sun 31 17 15 - X -
261 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 31 16 16 - X -
262 Youngstown St. Youngstwn St. Horizon 31 13 21 - X -
263 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 30 12 19 - X -
264 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 30 14 18 - X -
265 Seattle WAC 30 12 17 - X -
266 Robert Morris Northeast 30 14 19 - X -
267 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA Conf. USA 30 14 19 - X -
268 Charleston Southern Big South 29 12 19 - X -
269 Brown Ivy League 29 13 17 - X -
270 James Madison Colonial Athletic 29 10 23 - X -
271 Western Carolina Southern 29 9 23 - X -
272 Portland St. Big Sky 29 15 16 - X -
273 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 28 10 22 - X -
274 Army Patriot League 28 13 18 - X -
275 Savannah St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 28 13 16 - X -
276 Oregon St. PAC 12 28 5 27 - X -
277 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 28 11 19 - X -
278 Cleveland St. Horizon 27 9 22 - X -
279 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 27 11 24 - X -
280 Hampton Mideastern Mid-Eastern 27 14 16 - X -
281 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 27 6 25 - X -
282 Abilene Christian Southland South-land 27 12 16 - X -
283 Northwestern St. N. Western St. Southland South-land 27 13 16 - X -
284 Oral Roberts Summit 27 8 22 - X -
285 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 26 7 23 - X -
286 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 26 9 21 - X -
287 Incarnate Word Southland South-land 26 12 17 - X -
288 Quinnipiac Quinnip. Metro Atlantic 26 10 20 - X -
289 Miami OH MAC 26 11 21 - X -
290 New Jersey Tech Atlantic Sun 26 11 20 - X -
291 Tennessee Tech Tenn. Tech Ohio Valley 26 12 20 - X -
292 Sacramento St. Sacram. St. Big Sky 25 13 18 - X -
293 Drexel Colonial Athletic 24 9 23 - X -
294 Niagara Metro Atlantic 24 10 23 - X -
295 Drake Missouri Valley 24 7 23 - X -
296 CSU Northridge Big West 24 11 19 - X -
297 Cal Poly Big West 23 11 20 - X -
298 Northern Colorado Big Sky 23 11 18 - X -
299 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 23 11 19 - X -
300 Sacred Heart Northeast 23 13 19 - X -
301 Morgan St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 23 14 16 - X -
302 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 23 10 20 - X -
303 Bryant Northeast 23 12 20 - X -
304 Binghamton Bingham. America East 23 12 20 - X -
305 S. Carolina St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 23 11 20 - X -
306 Marist Metro Atlantic 23 8 24 - X -
307 UMass-Lowell America East 23 11 20 - X -
308 Detroit Horizon 23 8 23 - X -
309 LA Monroe Sunbelt 23 9 24 - X -
310 Prairie View A&M Southwestern SWAC 22 13 20 - X -
311 Grambling Southwestern SWAC 22 15 17 - X -
312 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern Mid-Eastern 22 13 21 - X -
313 Cornell Ivy League 22 8 21 - X -
314 Colgate Patriot League 22 10 22 - X -
315 Central Arkansas Southland South-land 21 8 24 - X -
316 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC 21 10 22 - X -
317 Southern Southwestern SWAC 21 15 17 - X -
318 Stetson Atlantic Sun 20 11 21 - X -
319 Western Illinois Summit 20 8 20 - X -
320 VMI Southern 20 6 24 - X -
321 Dartmouth Ivy League 19 7 20 - X -
322 American Patriot League 19 8 22 - X -
323 Jackson St. Southwestern SWAC 19 14 18 - X -
324 Lafayette Patriot League 18 8 21 - X -
325 Hartford America East 17 9 23 - X -
326 UCSB Big West 17 6 22 - X -
327 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 16 9 22 - X -
328 Chicago St. WAC 16 5 26 - X -
329 Maine America East 15 7 25 - X -
330 UC Riverside Big West 15 8 21 - X -
331 McNeese St. Southland South-land 15 7 22 - X -
332 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 14 8 22 - X -
333 Howard Mideastern Mid-Eastern 13 10 24 - X -
334 Delaware St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 12 10 22 - X -
335 Northern Arizona Big Sky 12 9 23 - X -
336 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern Mid-Eastern 12 11 21 - X -
337 FIU Conference USA Conf. USA 11 7 24 - X -
338 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern SWAC 11 7 25 - X -
339 Longwood Big South 10 6 24 - X -
340 SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville Ohio Valley 10 6 24 - X -
341 Coppin St. Mideastern Mid-Eastern 9 8 24 - X -
342 Presbyterian Presbyter. Big South 9 5 25 - X -
343 Idaho St. Big Sky 7 6 26 - X -
344 Alabama St. Southwestern SWAC 5 8 23 - X -
345 Southern Utah Big Sky 3 6 27 - X -
346 Central Conn. St. Northeast 3 6 23 - X -
347 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern SWAC 2 7 25 - X -
348 Florida A&M Mideastern Mid-Eastern -1 7 23 - X -
349 St. Francis (NY) Northeast -2 4 27 - X -
350 N.C. A&T Mideastern Mid-Eastern -8 3 29 - X -
351 Alabama A&M Southwestern SWAC -13 2 27 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot