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Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 50 and 51. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Last 6 teams in - Minnesota, Buffalo, Davidson, Harvard, Indiana, Alabama
First 6 teams out - Illinois, Iowa, Providence, Green Bay, UCLA, South Carolina
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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities