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Tue Feb 9 3:45 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 14 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Kansas St., Butler, Syracuse, UALR, Washington, Valparaiso
First 6 teams out - Wichita St., Oregon St., San Diego St., Akron, Cincinnati, Texas Tech

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Oklahoma Big 12 109 20 3 100% >99% >99%
2 Villanova Big East 107 20 3 100% >99% 95%
3 Xavier Big East 104 20 2 100% >99% >99%
4 West Virginia Big 12 103 19 4 100% >99% 98%
5 Kansas Big 12 102 19 4 100% >99% 99%
6 Oregon PAC 12 102 20 4 100% >99% 99%
7 Virginia ACC 102 19 4 100% >99% 99%
8 Maryland Big 10 101 21 3 100% >99% 96%
9 Iowa Big 10 100 19 4 100% >99% 30%
10 North Carolina ACC 99 19 4 100% >99% 20%
11 Miami ACC 97 18 4 100% >99% 8%
12 Iowa St. Big 12 97 17 6 100% >99% 12%
13 Michigan St. Big 10 97 20 4 100% >99% 1%
14 Southern Methodist American Athletic Am. Athletic 96 20 2 100% >99% <1%
15 USC PAC 12 95 18 3 100% 99% <1%
16 Dayton Atlantic 10 94 18 3 100% >99% <1%
17 Arizona PAC 12 91 18 4 100% 98% <1%
18 South Carolina SEC 91 20 3 100% 97% <1%
19 Duke ACC 91 18 6 100% 99% <1%
20 Texas Big 12 91 16 8 100% 99% 6%
21 Texas A&M SEC 91 17 5 100% 97% <1%
22 Purdue Big 10 90 19 5 100% 97% <1%
23 Utah PAC 12 89 17 7 100% 95% <1%
24 Louisville ACC 89 19 5 100% 95% <1%
25 Baylor Big 12 89 17 6 100% 94% <1%
26 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 89 19 4 100% 94% <1%
27 Kentucky SEC 88 17 6 100% 93% <1%
28 Notre Dame ACC 87 17 7 100% 91% <1%
29 Colorado PAC 12 86 17 7 100% 85% <1%
30 Pittsburgh ACC 86 17 5 100% 81% <1%
31 Seton Hall Big East 85 17 6 100% 83% <1%
32 Indiana Big 10 85 19 5 100% 80% <1%
33 Providence Big East 85 17 6 100% 81% <1%
34 California PAC 12 84 15 7 100% 74% <1%
35 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 83 18 5 100% 73% <1%
36 Florida St. ACC 83 16 7 100% 71% <1%
37 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 83 17 5 100% 69% <1%
38 Florida SEC 83 15 8 100% 69% <1%
39 Michigan Big 10 83 17 7 100% 68% <1%
40 VCU Atlantic 10 82 17 6 >99% 64% X
41 Chattanooga Southern 82 22 3 98% 71% X
42 Kansas St. Big 12 82 14 9 100% 59% <1%
43 Butler Big East 81 16 7 100% 55% <1%
44 Syracuse ACC 81 16 8 100% 54% <1%
45 UALR Sunbelt 81 21 2 >99% 68% X
46 Washington PAC 12 80 15 8 >99% 46% <1%
47 Valparaiso Horizon 80 20 4 99% 60% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 83 Line Movers
48 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 79 17 6 99% 51% X
49 Oregon St. PAC 12 79 14 8 100% 42% <1%
50 San Diego St. Mountain West Mntn West 79 18 6 >99% 48% X
51 Akron MAC 79 19 4 >99% 54% X
52 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 79 17 7 >99% 38% X
53 Texas Tech Big 12 78 13 9 100% 36% <1%
54 St. Mary's West Coast 78 19 3 93% 44% <1%
55 Wisconsin Big 10 77 14 9 >99% 29% <1%
56 Hawaii Big West 77 18 2 99% 48% X
57 Gonzaga West Coast 77 18 4 99% 40% <1%
58 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 77 15 6 >99% 27% X
59 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 76 18 4 4% 50% X
60 LSU SEC 76 15 8 >99% 26% X
61 South Dakota St. Summit 76 19 5 62% 41% X
62 Georgia SEC 76 13 8 >99% 23% X
63 Vanderbilt SEC 75 13 10 >99% 17% <1%
64 Alabama SEC 75 13 9 >99% 19% <1%
65 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 75 14 8 >99% 20% X
66 UCLA PAC 12 74 13 10 >99% 15% <1%
67 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 74 15 8 >99% 16% X
68 UC Irvine Big West 73 18 6 24% 33% X
69 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 73 17 6 84% 23% X
70 Ole Miss SEC 73 15 8 >99% 11% X
71 Creighton Big East 73 15 9 >99% 8% <1%
72 Marquette Big East 72 15 9 >99% 7% X
73 Evansville Missouri Valley 72 19 6 3% 23% X
74 Clemson ACC 72 14 10 >99% 5% <1%
75 Stanford PAC 12 72 11 10 >99% 9% X
76 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 72 16 8 >99% 7% X
77 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 72 18 5 70% 22% X
78 Georgetown Big East 72 14 11 >99% 6% X
79 Arizona St. PAC 12 71 13 11 >99% 5% X
80 James Madison Colonial Athletic 71 18 7 7% 17% X
81 UAB Conference USA 70 20 4 <1% 31% X
82 Georgia Tech ACC 70 12 11 >99% 4% X
83 Stony Brook America East 70 20 4 <1% 52% X
84 Ohio St. Big 10 70 14 10 >99% 4% X
85 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 70 16 7 81% 8% X
86 IPFW Summit 69 19 7 <1% 25% X
87 Davidson Atlantic 10 69 12 8 >99% 5% X
88 Boise St. Mountain West Mntn West 69 16 7 10% 18% X
89 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 68 16 8 <1% 14% X
90 Arkansas SEC 67 12 11 89% 3% X
91 BYU West Coast 67 17 8 <1% 17% X
92 Grand Canyon WAC 67 20 4 X X X
93 Princeton Ivy League 67 14 5 83% 20% X
94 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 66 17 6 <1% 25% X
95 Yale Ivy League 66 15 5 >99% 68% X
96 Virginia Tech ACC 66 13 11 >99% 1% X
97 N.C. State ACC 66 12 12 99% 1% X
98 Charleston Colonial Athletic 65 15 8 <1% 11% X
99 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 65 18 7 <1% 15% X
100 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 65 14 9 29% 5% X
101 Duquesne Atlantic 10 65 15 8 94% 3% X
102 Wake Forest ACC 64 10 13 98% 1% X
103 Oakland Horizon 64 17 8 <1% 23% X
104 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 64 14 9 <1% 15% X
105 Penn State Big 10 64 12 12 28% 1% X
106 Ohio MAC 63 14 8 <1% 9% X
107 Buffalo MAC 63 14 9 <1% 16% X
108 Kent State MAC 63 15 8 <1% 11% X
109 Tennessee SEC 62 11 12 14% 1% X
110 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 62 18 5 <1% 44% X
111 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 62 13 10 5% 2% X
112 Belmont Ohio Valley 62 17 8 <1% 29% X
113 Mercer Southern 62 18 7 <1% 18% X
114 Richmond Atlantic 10 62 11 9 71% 2% X
115 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 61 15 7 <1% 17% X
116 TCU Big 12 61 11 13 98% <1% X
117 Nebraska Big 10 61 13 11 51% 1% X
118 Fresno St. Mountain West Mntn West 61 15 8 <1% 11% X
119 Albany America East 61 20 6 <1% 28% X
120 Stephen F. Austin Southland 60 17 4 <1% 44% X
121 Oklahoma St. Big 12 60 10 13 >99% <1% X
122 North Dakota St. Summit 60 16 8 <1% 14% X
123 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 59 17 7 <1% 27% X
124 Illinois Big 10 59 11 13 <1% <1% X
125 New Mexico St. WAC 58 17 8 X 45% X
126 Columbia Ivy League 58 16 7 86% 12% X
127 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 58 14 11 <1% 7% X
128 Northern Illinois N. Illinois MAC 58 16 7 <1% 5% X
129 Siena Metro Atlantic 58 16 9 <1% 18% X
130 Long Beach St. Big West 58 11 11 <1% 11% X
131 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 58 14 11 <1% 9% X
132 Auburn SEC 58 9 13 1% 1% X
133 Towson Colonial Athletic 58 17 8 <1% 7% X
134 Ball State MAC 57 15 8 <1% 7% X
135 North Florida Atlantic Sun 57 18 8 <1% 45% X
136 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 57 17 6 <1% 13% X
137 Pepperdine West Coast 57 14 10 <1% 9% X
138 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 57 13 11 <1% 6% X
139 E. Tennessee St. Southern 57 15 9 <1% 13% X
140 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 56 13 9 <1% 8% X
141 Toledo MAC 56 14 9 <1% 5% X
142 Elon Colonial Athletic 55 14 11 <1% 5% X
143 N.C. Asheville Big South 55 17 8 X 25% X
144 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 55 15 9 <1% 7% X
145 UCSB Big West 55 10 12 <1% 9% X
146 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 54 13 11 <1% 6% X
147 Nebraska Omaha Summit 54 15 10 X X X
148 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 54 13 8 <1% 15% X
149 Wright St. Horizon 54 15 10 <1% 12% X
150 Georgia St. Sunbelt 54 13 8 <1% 8% X
151 DePaul Big East 53 8 15 <1% <1% X
152 Fordham Atlantic 10 53 12 9 <1% 1% X
153 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 53 16 7 X 14% X
154 Iona Metro Atlantic 53 14 9 <1% 14% X
155 Old Dominion Conference USA 53 13 10 X 10% X
156 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 53 17 7 X 32% X
157 Green Bay Horizon 53 14 10 X 6% X
158 Weber St. Big Sky 52 16 7 <1% 27% X
159 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 52 11 10 <1% 1% X
160 Montana Big Sky 52 14 8 X 27% X
161 Winthrop Big South 52 16 7 X 19% X
162 Washington St. PAC 12 51 9 14 <1% <1% X
163 Northeastern N. Eastern Colonial Athletic 51 12 13 <1% 3% X
164 E. Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 51 10 13 <1% 1% X
165 Marshall Conference USA 51 12 12 X 9% X
166 Central Michigan C. Michigan MAC 50 13 10 <1% 5% X
167 Navy Patriot League 50 16 9 X 26% X
168 Coastal Carolina Big South 50 15 8 X 18% X
169 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 50 12 10 <1% 5% X
170 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 49 11 11 <1% 3% X
171 Mississippi St. SEC 49 8 13 <1% <1% X
172 Furman Southern 49 15 11 X 8% X
173 Denver Summit 49 13 11 X 7% X
174 Missouri SEC 48 8 15 <1% <1% X
175 Oral Roberts Summit 48 11 14 X 6% X
176 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 48 13 11 X 8% X
177 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 46 12 13 X 3% X
178 Hampton Mideastern 46 14 9 X 31% X
179 Radford Big South 46 13 11 X 11% X
180 George Mason Atlantic 10 46 8 15 X <1% X
181 Massachusetts Mass. Atlantic 10 46 9 13 <1% <1% X
182 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 46 12 11 X 6% X
183 Vermont America East 46 14 12 X 9% X
184 Detroit Horizon 46 12 11 X 3% X
185 New Jersey Tech Atlantic Sun 46 14 11 X 18% X
186 San Francisco West Coast 46 13 10 <1% 3% X
187 Bowling Green MAC 45 13 10 <1% 1% X
188 IUPUI Summit 45 11 15 X 5% X
189 Bucknell Patriot League 45 13 10 X 24% X
190 High Point Big South 45 14 9 X 11% X
191 Eastern Michigan E. Michigan MAC 45 11 12 X 1% X
192 Southern Southwestern SWAC 44 15 8 X 32% X
193 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 44 14 12 X 4% X
194 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 44 12 12 <1% 2% X
195 Wagner Northeast 44 15 8 X 32% X
196 Western Kentucky Conference USA 44 12 12 X 3% X
197 Boston College ACC 44 7 16 <1% <1% X
198 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 44 8 14 <1% <1% X
199 Murray St. Ohio Valley 44 12 12 X 8% X
200 South Dakota Summit 44 11 14 X 4% X
201 New Hampshire America East 44 14 9 X 9% X
202 UTEP Conference USA 43 13 10 X 4% X
203 Wofford Southern 43 12 13 X 5% X
204 LA Monroe Sunbelt 43 11 12 X 4% X
205 Idaho Big Sky 43 14 10 X 11% X
206 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 43 10 13 X 2% X
207 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 43 14 11 X 14% X
208 St. John's Big East 43 6 18 <1% <1% X
209 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 42 11 13 X 2% X
210 Boston U. Patriot League 42 14 11 X 17% X
211 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 42 14 11 X 24% X
212 Gardner-Webb Big South 41 13 12 X 9% X
213 Houston Baptist Southland 41 14 10 X X X
214 Cornell Ivy League 40 9 11 X <1% X
215 Eastern Washington Big Sky 40 13 10 X 10% X
216 Western Michigan W. Michigan MAC 40 9 14 X <1% X
217 Minnesota Big 10 40 6 17 X <1% X
218 North Dakota Big Sky 40 12 10 X 9% X
219 Army Patriot League 40 14 11 X 8% X
220 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 40 15 11 X 17% X
221 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 39 13 12 X 4% X
222 Jackson St. Southwestern SWAC 39 13 11 X 21% X
223 Incarnate Word Southland 39 12 9 X X X
224 Loyola Marymount West Coast 38 10 14 X 1% X
225 Portland West Coast 38 11 14 X 1% X
226 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 38 11 12 X 2% X
227 Canisius Metro Atlantic 38 11 14 X 3% X
228 UC Davis Big West 37 10 12 X 2% X
229 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 37 12 11 X 22% X
230 Samford Southern 37 12 14 X 2% X
231 Miami OH MAC 37 8 15 X <1% X
232 Seattle WAC 36 12 11 X 11% X
233 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 36 9 12 X 3% X
234 UC Riverside Big West 36 13 13 X 2% X
235 Norfolk St. Mideastern 36 11 13 X 16% X
236 Texas Southern Southwestern SWAC 36 10 12 X 20% X
237 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 36 11 13 X 7% X
238 Cal Poly Big West 36 7 14 X 1% X
239 Harvard Ivy League 36 9 13 X <1% X
240 Sam Houston St. Southland 36 12 12 X 7% X
241 Rutgers Big 10 36 6 18 X <1% X
242 Northern Kentucky Horizon 36 9 14 X 1% X
243 Charlotte Conference USA 35 8 15 X 1% X
244 Colgate Patriot League 35 11 13 X 8% X
245 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 35 12 11 X 18% X
246 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 35 11 15 X 1% X
247 Sacramento St. Big Sky 34 10 11 X 2% X
248 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 34 9 12 X 1% X
249 La Salle Atlantic 10 34 5 16 X <1% X
250 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 34 7 16 X <1% X
251 San Diego West Coast 34 8 14 X 1% X
252 South Alabama Sunbelt 34 9 14 X 1% X
253 Idaho St. Big Sky 33 11 11 X 6% X
254 Western Carolina Southern 33 9 15 X 1% X
255 Montana St. Big Sky 33 10 13 X 4% X
256 FIU Conference USA 33 11 13 X 1% X
257 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 33 9 13 X 2% X
258 Youngstown St. Horizon 33 9 16 X 1% X
259 Rider Metro Atlantic 33 10 15 X 2% X
260 Western Illinois Summit 33 8 13 X 2% X
261 CSU Fullerton Big West 32 9 13 X 1% X
262 Pennsylvania Penn. Ivy League 32 8 11 X <1% X
263 Lehigh Patriot League 32 9 14 X 7% X
264 Santa Clara West Coast 32 8 16 X 1% X
265 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 31 5 20 X <1% X
266 Pacific West Coast 31 7 15 X 1% X
267 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 30 9 11 X <1% X
268 N.C. Greensboro Southern 30 9 16 X 1% X
269 Liberty Big South 30 11 15 X 4% X
270 Utah Valley WAC 30 10 14 X 6% X
271 CSU Northridge Big West 30 8 15 X 1% X
272 Alcorn St. Southwestern SWAC 30 10 12 X 13% X
273 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 29 6 16 X X X
274 UMKC WAC 29 9 15 X 5% X
275 Delaware Colonial Athletic 29 5 18 X <1% X
276 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 29 10 15 X 10% X
277 Loyola-MD Patriot League 28 8 15 X 5% X
278 Citadel Southern 28 10 15 X 1% X
279 UMass-Lowell America East 27 9 15 X X X
280 North Texas Conference USA 27 9 14 X 1% X
281 Cleveland St. Horizon 27 7 18 X <1% X
282 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 27 8 17 X 6% X
283 San Jose St. Mountain West Mntn West 27 7 15 X X X
284 Rice Conference USA 26 8 15 X <1% X
285 Brown Ivy League 26 7 13 X <1% X
286 Holy Cross Patriot League 26 9 14 X 2% X
287 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 26 7 18 X 2% X
288 Charleston Southern Big South 26 8 16 X 1% X
289 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 26 8 14 X 1% X
290 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 26 11 12 X 5% X
291 Savannah St. Mideastern 25 9 13 X 5% X
292 Stetson Atlantic Sun 25 9 16 X 2% X
293 Portland St. Big Sky 24 8 13 X 2% X
294 Abilene Christian Southland 24 11 13 X X X
295 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 24 8 18 X 2% X
296 Dartmouth Ivy League 24 7 13 X <1% X
297 American Patriot League 24 7 16 X 2% X
298 Drake Missouri Valley 24 6 18 X <1% X
299 Troy Sunbelt 24 7 16 X <1% X
300 Howard Mideastern 23 9 14 X 4% X
301 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 23 10 15 X 6% X
302 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 23 9 15 X 6% X
303 New Orleans Southland 23 8 13 X 2% X
304 Drexel Colonial Athletic 23 3 20 X <1% X
305 Northern Colorado Big Sky 22 8 15 X 1% X
306 Bradley Missouri Valley 22 4 21 X <1% X
307 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 22 6 18 X <1% X
308 Nicholls St. Southland 21 7 18 X 1% X
309 Southern Miss Conference USA 21 7 14 X <1% X
310 Maine America East 21 8 16 X 1% X
311 Alabama A&M Southwestern SWAC 20 8 12 X 5% X
312 Presbyterian Big South 20 8 15 X 1% X
313 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 20 8 18 X <1% X
314 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern SWAC 19 6 19 X X X
315 VMI Southern 18 6 17 X <1% X
316 Campbell Big South 18 8 15 X 1% X
317 Alabama St. Southwestern SWAC 18 7 15 X 4% X
318 Bryant Northeast 18 8 17 X 2% X
319 Central Arkansas Southland 18 4 15 X X X
320 Longwood Big South 18 8 17 X 1% X
321 Lamar Southland 18 10 14 X X X
322 Niagara Metro Atlantic 18 6 19 X <1% X
323 Sacred Heart Northeast 17 7 16 X 3% X
324 N.C. Central Mideastern 17 8 14 X 2% X
325 N.C. A&T Mideastern 17 7 17 X 2% X
326 SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville Ohio Valley 16 4 19 X <1% X
327 McNeese St. Southland 16 5 15 X 1% X
328 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 16 8 18 X <1% X
329 Marist Metro Atlantic 16 5 17 X <1% X
330 Robert Morris Northeast 16 7 18 X 2% X
331 Hartford America East 15 7 18 X <1% X
332 Northwestern St. N. Western St. Southland 15 6 15 X <1% X
333 UMBC America East 15 6 18 X <1% X
334 Binghamton America East 15 5 19 X <1% X
335 SE Louisiana Southland 15 5 17 X 1% X
336 Coppin St. Mideastern 15 4 18 X 1% X
337 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC 14 6 18 X 1% X
338 Northern Arizona Big Sky 13 4 18 X <1% X
339 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 13 5 19 X <1% X
340 Lafayette Patriot League 13 5 18 X <1% X
341 Southern Utah Big Sky 13 5 17 X <1% X
342 Chicago St. WAC 12 4 21 X 1% X
343 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern SWAC 12 5 20 X 2% X
344 Florida A&M Mideastern 11 7 15 X X X
345 Morgan St. Mideastern 11 5 17 X 1% X
346 Grambling Southwestern SWAC 10 5 17 X 2% X
347 Ill. Chicago Horizon 9 3 19 X <1% X
348 Delaware St. Mideastern 8 4 19 X 1% X
349 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 7 4 20 X <1% X
350 Prairie View A&M Southwestern SWAC 4 2 20 X <1% X
351 Central Conn. St. Northeast -4 3 20 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot