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Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Last 6 teams in - Dayton, Arizona St., Tennessee, Toledo, BYU, Nebraska
First 6 teams out - Iowa, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Stephen F. Austin, Minnesota, N.C. State
Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments
So how well did we do in predicting what team made the tournament? This year we had only 2 teams that did not make tournament as we predicted, Toledo and Missouri. Toledo was located 3 spots above the cutline with a MWP 2 points greater than the cutline. Missouri was located 7 spots above the cutline with a MWP 3 points greater than the cutline. These two teams were replaced with Iowa and N.C. State. Iowa was located exactly on the cutline while N.C. State was located 6 spots below the cutline with a MWP 2 points less than the cutline. Overall we think we did a good job this year but we will be working to make the list more accurate next year.
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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities