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Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 50 and 51. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Last 6 teams in - La Salle, Boise St., Southern Miss, Belmont, Oklahoma, California
First 6 teams out - Villanova, Iowa, Akron, Massachusetts, Bucknell, Kentucky
Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments
So how well did we do in predicting what team made the tournament? This year we had only 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Southern Miss. Southern Miss was replaced by Villanova, the first we had out of the tournament. Southern Miss had a MWP of 1 point greater than the cutline of 80 and Villanova had a MWP of one less than the cutline. Overall we think we did a good job this year but we will be working to make the list more accurate next year.
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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities