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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Indiana, Boise St., Temple, Miami
First 6 teams out - Texas A&M, UCLA, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Valparaiso, Rhode Island

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what team made the tournament? This year we had 3 teams that did not make tournament as we predicted, Colorado St., Temple, and Miami. These teams were replaced with UCLA, Ole Miss, and Cincinnati. The cutline was separated by a MWP of 79 and 78 points. Four of these 6 teams were ranked at those MWP numbers, with Cincinnati located one additional point lower at 77. The only outlier (there always seems to be one) was Colorado St. which was ranked 11 spots higher at a MWP of 84. Guess the NCAA selection committee does not show much love to mid-major conference teams. :( We will be working to make the list more accurate next year.


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Kentucky SEC 123 34 0 - 100% -
2 Villanova Big East 116 32 2 - 100% -
3 Wisconsin Big 10 114 31 3 - 100% -
4 Duke ACC 113 29 4 - 100% -
5 Virginia ACC 112 29 3 - 100% -
6 Arizona PAC 12 110 31 3 - 100% -
7 Kansas Big 12 107 26 8 - 100% -
8 Gonzaga West Coast 104 32 2 - 100% -
9 Notre Dame ACC 104 29 5 - 100% -
10 Iowa St. Big 12 102 25 8 - 100% -
11 Maryland Big 10 100 27 6 - 100% -
12 Baylor Big 12 97 24 9 - 100% -
13 Louisville ACC 95 24 8 - 100% -
14 North Carolina ACC 95 24 11 - 100% -
15 Oklahoma Big 12 95 22 10 - 100% -
16 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 95 30 3 - 100% -
17 Arkansas SEC 94 26 8 - 100% -
18 West Virginia Big 12 93 23 9 - 100% -
19 Southern Methodist American Athletic 92 27 6 - 100% -
20 Georgetown Big East 92 21 9 - 100% -
21 Michigan St. Big 10 91 23 11 - 100% -
22 Providence Big East 91 22 11 - 100% -
23 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 90 27 4 - 100% -
24 Utah PAC 12 90 24 8 - 100% -
25 VCU Atlantic 10 90 26 9 - 100% -
26 Oregon PAC 12 88 25 9 - 100% -
27 Butler Big East 88 21 10 - 100% -
28 Georgia SEC 85 21 11 - 100% -
29 St. John's Big East 85 21 11 - 100% -
30 Ohio St. Big 10 85 23 10 - 100% -
31 Iowa Big 10 85 21 11 - 100% -
32 Xavier Big East 84 21 13 - 100% -
33 Dayton Atlantic 10 84 25 8 - 100% -
34 Texas Big 12 84 20 13 - 100% -
35 San Diego St. Mountain West 84 26 8 - 100% -
36 Davidson Atlantic 10 84 24 7 - 100% -
37 Colorado St. Mountain West 84 26 6 - 100% -
38 N.C. State ACC 83 20 13 - 100% -
39 LSU SEC 82 22 10 - 100% -
40 Purdue Big 10 81 21 12 - 100% -
41 Oklahoma St. Big 12 81 18 13 - 100% -
42 BYU West Coast 81 24 9 - 100% -
43 Stephen F. Austin Southland 80 29 4 - 100% -
44 Indiana Big 10 80 20 13 - 100% -
45 Boise St. Mountain West 79 25 8 - 100% -
46 Temple American Athletic 79 23 10 - 100% -
47 Miami ACC 79 21 12 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
48 Texas A&M SEC 78 20 11 - X -
49 UCLA PAC 12 78 20 13 - X -
50 Ole Miss SEC 78 20 12 - X -
51 Cincinnati American Athletic 77 22 10 - X -
52 Valparaiso Horizon 77 28 5 - 100% -
53 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 77 22 9 - X -
54 Syracuse ACC 76 18 13 - X -
55 Old Dominion Conference USA 76 24 7 - X -
56 Illinois Big 10 75 19 13 - X -
57 Buffalo MAC 75 23 9 - 100% -
58 Stanford PAC 12 75 19 13 - X -
59 Wofford Southern 75 28 6 - 100% -
60 Murray St. Ohio Valley 74 27 5 - X -
61 St. Mary's West Coast 73 21 9 - X -
62 Tulsa American Athletic 73 22 10 - X -
63 Pittsburgh ACC 73 19 14 - X -
64 Wyoming Mountain West 73 25 9 - 100% -
65 Florida SEC 72 16 17 - X -
66 Green Bay Horizon 72 24 8 - X -
67 Alabama SEC 72 18 14 - X -
68 Vanderbilt SEC 72 19 13 - X -
69 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 72 21 12 - X -
70 South Carolina SEC 71 17 15 - X -
71 TCU Big 12 71 18 15 - X -
72 UC Davis Big West 71 25 6 - X -
73 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 71 25 8 - X -
74 Michigan Big 10 71 16 16 - X -
75 Richmond Atlantic 10 70 19 13 - X -
76 Clemson ACC 70 16 15 - X -
77 Seton Hall Big East 70 16 15 - X -
78 Minnesota Big 10 70 18 15 - X -
79 Kansas St. Big 12 70 15 17 - X -
80 Connecticut American Athletic 70 20 14 - X -
81 Tennessee SEC 70 16 16 - X -
82 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 69 21 12 - X -
83 Harvard Ivy League 69 21 7 - 100% -
84 Iona Metro Atlantic 68 26 8 - X -
85 UTEP Conference USA 68 22 10 - X -
86 California PAC 12 68 18 15 - X -
87 Arizona St. PAC 12 67 17 15 - X -
88 Florida St. ACC 67 17 16 - X -
89 Penn State Big 10 67 18 16 - X -
90 Yale Ivy League 67 21 9 - X -
91 Georgia St. Sunbelt 66 24 9 - 100% -
92 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 65 17 15 - X -
93 Central Michigan MAC 65 22 8 - X -
94 Eastern Washington Big Sky 65 26 8 - 100% -
95 Oregon St. PAC 12 64 17 14 - X -
96 Toledo MAC 64 20 13 - X -
97 Memphis American Athletic 64 18 14 - X -
98 Northwestern Big 10 63 15 17 - X -
99 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 63 23 11 - 100% -
100 UC Irvine Big West 63 21 12 - 100% -
101 Kent State MAC 62 21 11 - X -
102 Colorado PAC 12 62 15 17 - X -
103 Sam Houston St. Southland 62 25 8 - X -
104 Albany America East 62 24 8 - 100% -
105 La Salle Atlantic 10 62 17 16 - X -
106 UNLV Mountain West 62 18 15 - X -
107 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 62 18 13 - X -
108 Marquette Big East 61 13 19 - X -
109 Washington PAC 12 61 15 15 - X -
110 Pepperdine West Coast 61 18 13 - X -
111 Auburn SEC 61 15 20 - X -
112 Evansville Missouri Valley 60 19 12 - X -
113 High Point Big South 60 22 9 - X -
114 Chattanooga Southern 60 22 10 - X -
115 Creighton Big East 59 13 19 - X -
116 UCSB Big West 59 18 13 - X -
117 Belmont Ohio Valley 59 22 10 - 100% -
118 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 59 19 13 - X -
119 Western Kentucky Conference USA 59 20 12 - X -
120 Bowling Green MAC 59 20 11 - X -
121 Wake Forest ACC 59 13 19 - X -
122 Nebraska Big 10 59 13 18 - X -
123 New Mexico St. WAC 59 22 10 - 100% -
124 Hawaii Big West 59 22 12 - X -
125 N.C. Central Mideastern 59 24 7 - X -
126 Texas Tech Big 12 59 13 19 - X -
127 South Dakota St. Summit 58 23 10 - X -
128 Long Beach St. Big West 58 16 16 - X -
129 Boston College ACC 58 13 19 - X -
130 Western Michigan MAC 58 19 13 - X -
131 North Dakota St. Summit 58 22 10 - 100% -
132 Georgia Tech ACC 58 12 19 - X -
133 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 57 19 12 - X -
134 Utah St. Mountain West 57 18 13 - X -
135 Coastal Carolina Big South 57 24 9 - 100% -
136 Akron MAC 57 20 14 - X -
137 Lafayette Patriot League 56 20 12 - 100% -
138 UAB Conference USA 56 19 15 - 100% -
139 Eastern Michigan MAC 56 21 13 - X -
140 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 56 22 10 - X -
141 Portland West Coast 56 17 15 - X -
142 Texas Southern Southwestern 56 22 12 - 100% -
143 Stony Brook America East 56 23 11 - X -
144 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 56 22 9 - X -
145 Rider Metro Atlantic 55 21 11 - X -
146 Washington St. PAC 12 55 13 18 - X -
147 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 55 19 15 - X -
148 DePaul Big East 55 12 20 - X -
149 Cleveland St. Horizon 55 18 14 - X -
150 San Diego West Coast 54 15 16 - X -
151 James Madison Colonial Athletic 54 19 13 - X -
152 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 53 23 11 - X -
153 North Florida Atlantic Sun 52 22 11 - 100% -
154 Bucknell Patriot League 52 19 14 - X -
155 Radford Big South 52 21 11 - X -
156 Oakland Horizon 52 16 16 - X -
157 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 51 19 11 - X -
158 New Mexico Mountain West 51 15 16 - X -
159 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 51 18 13 - X -
160 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 51 20 13 - X -
161 Montana Big Sky 51 20 12 - X -
162 Rutgers Big 10 50 10 22 - X -
163 USC PAC 12 50 12 20 - X -
164 Charleston Southern Big South 50 19 11 - X -
165 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 50 19 13 - 100% -
166 LA Monroe Sunbelt 49 21 12 - X -
167 Mississippi St. SEC 49 13 19 - X -
168 Sacramento St. Big Sky 49 20 11 - X -
169 Robert Morris Northeast 49 19 14 - 100% -
170 Gardner-Webb Big South 49 20 14 - X -
171 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 49 13 18 - X -
172 New Jersey Tech Independent 49 18 11 - X -
173 Northwestern St. Southland 49 18 12 - X -
174 Santa Clara West Coast 48 14 18 - X -
175 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 48 20 13 - X -
176 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 48 15 16 - X -
177 San Francisco West Coast 48 14 18 - X -
178 Oral Roberts Summit 48 18 14 - X -
179 Norfolk St. Mideastern 48 20 13 - X -
180 Fresno St. Mountain West 48 14 17 - X -
181 American Patriot League 48 17 16 - X -
182 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 47 23 11 - X -
183 Incarnate Word Southland 47 18 10 - X -
184 Missouri SEC 47 9 23 - X -
185 Tulane American Athletic 47 15 16 - X -
186 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 47 18 12 - X -
187 Lehigh Patriot League 47 15 14 - X -
188 Northern Illinois MAC 47 14 16 - X -
189 Northern Arizona Big Sky 47 19 14 - X -
190 Princeton Ivy League 46 16 14 - X -
191 Virginia Tech ACC 46 11 22 - X -
192 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 46 18 15 - X -
193 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 46 17 14 - X -
194 Mercer Southern 45 18 14 - X -
195 Charlotte Conference USA 45 14 18 - X -
196 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 45 18 14 - X -
197 New Hampshire America East 44 19 12 - X -
198 Canisius Metro Atlantic 44 16 14 - X -
199 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 44 14 16 - X -
200 Detroit Horizon 44 15 18 - X -
201 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 44 19 13 - X -
202 E. Tennessee St. Southern 44 16 14 - X -
203 Cal Poly Big West 44 13 16 - X -
204 Winthrop Big South 43 19 13 - X -
205 Dartmouth Ivy League 43 14 14 - X -
206 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 43 15 15 - X -
207 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 43 16 15 - X -
208 Vermont America East 43 18 13 - X -
209 Colgate Patriot League 43 16 17 - X -
210 Columbia Ivy League 42 13 15 - X -
211 Duquesne Atlantic 10 42 12 19 - X -
212 E. Carolina American Athletic 42 14 19 - X -
213 Bryant Northeast 42 16 15 - X -
214 Air Force Mountain West 42 14 17 - X -
215 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 42 16 15 - X -
216 North Texas Conference USA 41 14 17 - X -
217 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 41 17 17 - X -
218 Holy Cross Patriot League 41 13 16 - X -
219 Houston American Athletic 40 13 19 - X -
220 IPFW Summit 40 16 14 - X -
221 Alabama St. Southwestern 40 19 10 - X -
222 South Dakota Summit 40 17 16 - X -
223 UC Riverside Big West 40 14 17 - X -
224 FIU Conference USA 40 16 17 - X -
225 Pacific West Coast 39 12 18 - X -
226 UCF American Athletic 39 12 18 - X -
227 Delaware St. Mideastern 39 18 17 - X -
228 Boston U. Patriot League 39 13 17 - X -
229 Fordham Atlantic 10 39 10 21 - X -
230 George Mason Atlantic 10 39 9 22 - X -
231 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 39 15 15 - X -
232 Western Carolina Southern 39 15 17 - X -
233 Miami OH MAC 39 13 19 - X -
234 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 38 14 16 - X -
235 Army Patriot League 38 14 15 - X -
236 Portland St. Big Sky 38 15 14 - X -
237 Cornell Ivy League 37 13 17 - X -
238 Grand Canyon WAC 37 17 14 - X -
239 Lamar Southland 37 15 15 - X -
240 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 36 11 21 - X -
241 Ohio MAC 36 10 20 - X -
242 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 36 16 18 - X -
243 Southern Southwestern 36 18 17 - X -
244 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 36 10 20 - X -
245 Rice Conference USA 35 12 19 - X -
246 Denver Summit 35 12 18 - X -
247 Elon Colonial Athletic 35 15 18 - X -
248 Northern Colorado Big Sky 35 15 15 - X -
249 Brown Ivy League 35 13 18 - X -
250 N.C. Asheville Big South 34 15 16 - X -
251 Loyola Marymount West Coast 34 8 23 - X -
252 Seattle WAC 34 16 15 - X -
253 Sacred Heart Northeast 34 14 17 - X -
254 Navy Patriot League 34 12 19 - X -
255 Hampton Mideastern 34 16 17 - 100% -
256 Hartford America East 33 14 16 - X -
257 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 33 12 21 - X -
258 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 33 13 17 - X -
259 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 33 14 17 - X -
260 South Florida American Athletic 33 9 23 - X -
261 McNeese St. Southland 33 15 16 - X -
262 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 33 12 17 - X -
263 Howard Mideastern 32 16 16 - X -
264 Drexel Colonial Athletic 32 11 19 - X -
265 Drake Missouri Valley 32 9 22 - X -
266 Weber St. Big Sky 32 13 17 - X -
267 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 32 15 18 - X -
268 Loyola-MD Patriot League 31 11 19 - X -
269 Wright St. Horizon 31 11 20 - X -
270 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 31 13 17 - X -
271 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 31 14 17 - X -
272 Idaho Big Sky 31 13 17 - X -
273 Marshall Conference USA 31 11 21 - X -
274 UALR Sunbelt 31 13 18 - X -
275 Delaware Colonial Athletic 30 10 20 - X -
276 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 30 12 18 - X -
277 Pennsylvania Ivy League 30 9 19 - X -
278 UMass-Lowell America East 30 12 17 - X -
279 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 29 12 16 - X -
280 Bradley Missouri Valley 29 9 24 - X -
281 IUPUI Summit 29 10 21 - X -
282 VMI Southern 29 11 18 - X -
283 Samford Southern 29 13 19 - X -
284 Nevada Mountain West 28 9 22 - X -
285 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 28 12 18 - X -
286 Southern Miss Conference USA 28 9 20 - X -
287 Siena Metro Atlantic 28 11 20 - X -
288 Nebraska Omaha Summit 28 12 17 - X -
289 Towson Colonial Athletic 28 12 20 - X -
290 Houston Baptist Southland 27 12 16 - X -
291 UMKC WAC 27 14 19 - X -
292 Ill. Chicago Horizon 27 10 24 - X -
293 Youngstown St. Horizon 27 11 21 - X -
294 CSU Northridge Big West 27 9 24 - X -
295 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 27 11 18 - X -
296 South Alabama Sunbelt 26 12 21 - X -
297 Furman Southern 26 11 22 - X -
298 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 26 14 19 - X -
299 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 26 12 19 - X -
300 Charleston Colonial Athletic 25 9 24 - X -
301 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 25 12 18 - X -
302 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 25 9 20 - X -
303 CSU Fullerton Big West 24 9 22 - X -
304 Ball State MAC 24 7 23 - X -
305 Wagner Northeast 23 10 20 - X -
306 Citadel Southern 23 11 19 - X -
307 N.C. Greensboro Southern 22 11 22 - X -
308 New Orleans Southland 22 11 18 - X -
309 Utah Valley WAC 22 10 19 - X -
310 Southern Utah Big Sky 22 10 19 - X -
311 Niagara Metro Atlantic 21 8 22 - X -
312 Nicholls St. Southland 21 10 19 - X -
313 Longwood Big South 20 11 23 - X -
314 Troy Sunbelt 20 10 19 - X -
315 Campbell Big South 19 10 22 - X -
316 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 19 10 22 - X -
317 Jackson St. Southwestern 19 11 21 - X -
318 Presbyterian Big South 18 10 22 - X -
319 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 18 11 22 - X -
320 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 18 8 21 - X -
321 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 18 8 22 - X -
322 Western Illinois Summit 18 8 20 - X -
323 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 17 7 24 - X -
324 SE Louisiana Southland 17 9 23 - X -
325 North Dakota Big Sky 17 8 22 - X -
326 Coppin St. Mideastern 16 7 23 - X -
327 Abilene Christian Southland 16 9 21 - X -
328 TX Pan American WAC 16 10 21 - X -
329 Savannah St. Mideastern 15 8 22 - X -
330 Montana St. Big Sky 15 7 23 - X -
331 Chicago St. WAC 14 8 24 - X -
332 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 14 10 22 - X -
333 Alabama A&M Southwestern 14 9 20 - X -
334 Marist Metro Atlantic 14 7 25 - X -
335 Stetson Atlantic Sun 13 9 21 - X -
336 Morgan St. Mideastern 12 7 24 - X -
337 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 11 11 21 - X -
338 N.C. A&T Mideastern 11 9 23 - X -
339 Binghamton America East 10 6 26 - X -
340 Idaho St. Big Sky 8 7 23 - X -
341 San Jose St. Mountain West 8 2 28 - X -
342 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 8 5 26 - X -
343 Liberty Big South 8 8 24 - X -
344 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 7 6 26 - X -
345 Central Conn. St. Northeast 5 5 26 - X -
346 Maine America East 4 3 27 - X -
347 UMBC America East 2 4 26 - X -
348 Alcorn St. Southwestern 0 5 25 - X -
349 Central Arkansas Southland -4 2 27 - X -
350 Florida A&M Mideastern -7 2 27 - X -
351 Grambling Southwestern -8 2 27 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot