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Sun Mar 13 9:00 pm

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 49 and 50. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Gonzaga, St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's, Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Wichita St.
First 6 teams out - Valparaiso, South Dakota St., Temple, Florida, Vanderbilt, Hawaii

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Kansas Big 12 119 30 4 - 100% -
2 Oregon PAC 12 109 28 6 - 100% -
3 Villanova Big East 109 29 5 - 100% -
4 North Carolina ACC 107 28 6 - 100% -
5 Oklahoma Big 12 107 25 7 - 100% -
6 Virginia ACC 106 26 7 - 100% -
7 West Virginia Big 12 106 26 8 - 100% -
8 Michigan St. Big 10 105 29 5 - 100% -
9 Utah PAC 12 104 26 8 - 100% -
10 Xavier Big East 103 26 5 - 100% -
11 Miami ACC 102 25 7 - 100% -
12 California PAC 12 96 23 9 - 100% -
13 Kentucky SEC 95 26 8 - 100% -
14 Arizona PAC 12 95 24 7 - 100% -
15 Seton Hall Big East 94 25 8 - 100% -
16 Iowa St. Big 12 94 21 11 - 100% -
17 Purdue Big 10 94 26 8 - 100% -
18 Texas A&M SEC 94 25 8 - 100% -
19 Baylor Big 12 93 22 11 - 100% -
20 Texas Big 12 93 20 12 - 100% -
21 Duke ACC 92 23 10 - 100% -
22 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 92 27 7 - 100% -
23 Maryland Big 10 92 25 8 - 100% -
24 Southern Methodist American Athletic Am. Athletic 91 25 5 - X -
25 Louisville ACC 91 23 8 - X -
26 Indiana Big 10 91 25 7 - 100% -
27 Dayton Atlantic 10 89 24 7 - 100% -
28 Colorado PAC 12 87 22 11 - 100% -
29 Texas Tech Big 12 87 19 12 - 100% -
30 USC PAC 12 86 21 10 - 100% -
31 Notre Dame ACC 86 21 11 - 100% -
32 Iowa Big 10 86 21 10 - 100% -
33 Oregon St. PAC 12 85 19 12 - 100% -
34 Providence Big East 85 22 10 - 100% -
35 Butler Big East 85 21 10 - 100% -
36 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 85 24 9 - 100% -
37 South Carolina SEC 84 24 8 - 100% -
38 Pittsburgh ACC 83 21 11 - 100% -
39 Wisconsin Big 10 82 20 12 - 100% -
40 Michigan Big 10 82 22 12 - 100% -
41 San Diego St. Mountain West Mntn West 81 25 9 - 100% -
42 VCU Atlantic 10 81 24 10 - 100% -
43 UALR Sunbelt 81 29 4 - 100% -
44 Gonzaga West Coast 81 25 6 - 100% -
45 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 80 22 8 - 100% -
46 St. Mary's West Coast 80 26 5 - 100% -
47 Chattanooga Southern 80 29 5 - 100% -
48 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 80 22 10 - 100% -
49 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 79 23 8 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
50 Valparaiso Horizon 79 26 6 - X -
51 South Dakota St. Summit 79 26 7 - 100% -
52 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 79 21 11 - X -
53 Florida SEC 78 19 14 - X -
54 Vanderbilt SEC 78 19 13 - X -
55 Hawaii Big West 78 27 5 - 100% -
56 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 78 23 10 - X -
57 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 78 25 7 - 100% -
58 Georgia SEC 78 19 13 - X -
59 Georgia Tech ACC 78 19 14 - X -
60 Syracuse ACC 77 19 13 - X -
61 Washington PAC 12 77 18 14 - X -
62 Akron MAC 76 26 8 - X -
63 Kansas St. Big 12 76 17 16 - X -
64 Virginia Tech ACC 76 19 14 - X -
65 Florida St. ACC 76 19 13 - X -
66 Ohio St. Big 10 76 20 13 - X -
67 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 76 24 9 - X -
68 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 76 20 11 - X -
69 Alabama SEC 75 18 14 - X -
70 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 75 26 6 - X -
71 Fresno St. Mountain West Mntn West 75 25 9 - 100% -
72 UC Irvine Big West 74 25 9 - X -
73 Stanford PAC 12 74 15 15 - X -
74 Marquette Big East 73 20 13 - X -
75 Davidson Atlantic 10 73 20 12 - X -
76 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 73 22 9 - X -
77 LSU SEC 73 19 14 - X -
78 Ole Miss SEC 73 20 12 - X -
79 Creighton Big East 72 18 14 - X -
80 Princeton Ivy League 72 22 6 - X -
81 Stephen F. Austin Southland 71 27 4 - 100% -
82 Evansville Missouri Valley 71 25 9 - X -
83 IPFW Summit 71 24 9 - X -
84 UAB Conference USA 71 26 6 - X -
85 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 71 20 12 - X -
86 UCLA PAC 12 71 15 17 - X -
87 Yale Ivy League 70 22 6 - 100% -
88 BYU West Coast 70 23 10 - X -
89 Arizona St. PAC 12 69 15 17 - X -
90 Clemson ACC 69 17 14 - X -
91 Stony Brook America East 69 26 6 - 100% -
92 Long Beach St. Big West 69 20 13 - X -
93 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 69 22 12 - 100% -
94 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 68 20 11 - X -
95 Grand Canyon WAC 68 25 5 - X -
96 N.C. State ACC 67 16 17 - X -
97 James Madison Colonial Athletic 67 21 11 - X -
98 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 66 24 9 - 100% -
99 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 66 25 7 - X -
100 Ohio MAC 66 21 11 - X -
101 Boise St. Mountain West Mntn West 66 20 11 - X -
102 Georgetown Big East 65 15 18 - X -
103 Arkansas SEC 65 16 16 - X -
104 E. Tennessee St. Southern 64 23 11 - X -
105 Penn State Big 10 64 16 16 - X -
106 Iona Metro Atlantic 64 22 10 - 100% -
107 UCSB Big West 63 18 13 - X -
108 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 63 23 10 - X -
109 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 63 22 10 - X -
110 Oakland Horizon 62 21 11 - X -
111 Buffalo MAC 62 20 14 - 100% -
112 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 62 19 15 - X -
113 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 62 17 15 - X -
114 New Mexico St. WAC 61 23 9 - X -
115 Green Bay Horizon 61 23 12 - 100% -
116 Weber St. Big Sky 60 26 8 - 100% -
117 Tennessee SEC 60 15 19 - X -
118 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 60 24 8 - 100% -
119 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 60 19 13 - X -
120 Belmont Ohio Valley 59 20 11 - X -
121 Northeastern N. Eastern Colonial Athletic 59 18 15 - X -
122 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 59 18 14 - X -
123 Richmond Atlantic 10 59 15 16 - X -
124 TCU Big 12 59 12 21 - X -
125 Illinois Big 10 59 15 19 - X -
126 Oklahoma St. Big 12 59 11 20 - X -
127 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 58 17 15 - X -
128 Nebraska Big 10 58 16 18 - X -
129 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 58 18 15 - X -
130 Albany America East 58 24 8 - X -
131 Kent State MAC 58 19 13 - X -
132 Charleston Colonial Athletic 58 17 14 - X -
133 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 57 23 9 - X -
134 Towson Colonial Athletic 57 20 12 - X -
135 Siena Metro Atlantic 57 21 12 - X -
136 Pepperdine West Coast 57 18 13 - X -
137 Mississippi St. SEC 57 13 17 - X -
138 LA Monroe Sunbelt 57 20 13 - X -
139 Wake Forest ACC 57 11 20 - X -
140 Winthrop Big South 57 23 9 - X -
141 Columbia Ivy League 57 21 10 - X -
142 North Dakota St. Summit 57 20 13 - X -
143 Northern Illinois MAC 57 21 12 - X -
144 Wright St. Horizon 56 22 13 - X -
145 N.C. Asheville Big South 56 22 11 - 100% -
146 Old Dominion Conference USA 56 22 13 - X -
147 Nebraska Omaha Summit 55 18 13 - X -
148 Fordham Atlantic 10 55 17 13 - X -
149 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 54 19 12 - X -
150 High Point Big South 54 21 10 - X -
151 Eastern Michigan MAC 53 18 15 - X -
152 Duquesne Atlantic 10 53 16 16 - X -
153 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 53 20 13 - X -
154 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 53 19 11 - X -
155 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 53 16 15 - X -
156 Auburn SEC 52 11 20 - X -
157 Vermont America East 52 21 13 - X -
158 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 52 20 10 - X -
159 Montana Big Sky 52 21 11 - X -
160 Ball State MAC 52 19 13 - X -
161 North Florida Atlantic Sun 52 22 11 - X -
162 Marshall Conference USA 52 17 16 - X -
163 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 52 19 13 - X -
164 Massachusetts Mass. Atlantic 10 51 14 18 - X -
165 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 50 17 16 - X -
166 Elon Colonial Athletic 50 16 16 - X -
167 Hampton Mideastern 50 21 10 - 100% -
168 Oral Roberts Summit 49 14 17 - X -
169 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 49 17 14 - X -
170 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 49 15 17 - X -
171 Coastal Carolina Big South 48 18 11 - X -
172 Mercer Southern 48 19 14 - X -
173 Toledo MAC 48 17 15 - X -
174 Denver Summit 48 16 15 - X -
175 Missouri SEC 48 10 21 - X -
176 DePaul Big East 48 9 22 - X -
177 Washington St. PAC 12 48 9 22 - X -
178 Idaho Big Sky 48 21 12 - X -
179 Central Michigan MAC 47 17 15 - X -
180 Western Kentucky Conference USA 47 18 16 - X -
181 Furman Southern 46 18 15 - X -
182 Murray St. Ohio Valley 46 17 14 - X -
183 Wagner Northeast 46 22 10 - X -
184 Detroit Horizon 46 16 15 - X -
185 Georgia St. Sunbelt 46 16 14 - X -
186 Western Carolina Southern 45 16 17 - X -
187 UTEP Conference USA 45 19 13 - X -
188 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 45 20 13 - 100% -
189 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 45 14 18 - X -
190 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 44 12 18 - X -
191 New Hampshire America East 44 19 12 - X -
192 George Mason Atlantic 10 44 11 21 - X -
193 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 44 19 14 - X -
194 IUPUI Summit 44 13 19 - X -
195 Bucknell Patriot League 43 17 13 - X -
196 Radford Big South 43 16 15 - X -
197 E. Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 43 12 20 - X -
198 Incarnate Word Southland 43 17 12 - X -
199 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 43 18 17 - 100% -
200 San Francisco West Coast 43 15 15 - X -
201 South Dakota Summit 43 14 18 - X -
202 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 43 11 21 - X -
203 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 43 15 17 - X -
204 Wofford Southern 42 15 17 - X -
205 Texas Southern Southwestern SWAC 42 18 14 - X -
206 New Jersey Tech Atlantic Sun 42 17 14 - X -
207 Harvard Ivy League 42 14 16 - X -
208 Lehigh Patriot League 42 17 15 - X -
209 Southern Southwestern SWAC 42 21 12 - 100% -
210 Bowling Green MAC 42 16 18 - X -
211 Navy Patriot League 42 19 14 - X -
212 Army Patriot League 42 19 13 - X -
213 Miami OH MAC 42 13 20 - X -
214 Boston U. Patriot League 42 18 14 - X -
215 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 41 13 18 - X -
216 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 41 14 18 - X -
217 Loyola Marymount West Coast 41 14 17 - X -
218 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 41 19 14 - X -
219 Western Michigan MAC 41 13 19 - X -
220 Sam Houston St. Southland 40 18 15 - X -
221 St. John's Big East 40 7 24 - X -
222 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 40 15 16 - X -
223 Minnesota Big 10 40 8 23 - X -
224 La Salle Atlantic 10 39 9 22 - X -
225 Gardner-Webb Big South 39 17 16 - X -
226 North Dakota Big Sky 39 17 15 - X -
227 Boston College ACC 38 7 25 - X -
228 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 38 18 14 - 100% -
229 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 37 14 16 - X -
230 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 37 11 22 - X -
231 Charlotte Conference USA 37 14 19 - X -
232 Eastern Washington Big Sky 37 17 15 - X -
233 Houston Baptist Southland 37 17 16 - X -
234 Jackson St. Southwestern SWAC 37 19 15 - X -
235 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 37 15 16 - X -
236 N.C. Greensboro Southern 37 14 18 - X -
237 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 36 14 17 - X -
238 Canisius Metro Atlantic 35 14 19 - X -
239 Portland West Coast 35 12 19 - X -
240 Norfolk St. Mideastern 35 16 16 - X -
241 South Alabama Sunbelt 35 14 19 - X -
242 Idaho St. Big Sky 35 16 15 - X -
243 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 35 8 25 - X -
244 Samford Southern 34 14 19 - X -
245 Santa Clara West Coast 34 11 20 - X -
246 Cal Poly Big West 34 9 20 - X -
247 UC Riverside Big West 34 14 19 - X -
248 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 34 13 18 - X -
249 Seattle WAC 33 14 16 - X -
250 Western Illinois Summit 33 10 17 - X -
251 Savannah St. Mideastern 33 16 15 - X -
252 Rider Metro Atlantic 32 13 20 - X -
253 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 32 13 17 - X -
254 Montana St. Big Sky 32 14 17 - X -
255 Rutgers Big 10 31 7 25 - X -
256 UC Davis Big West 31 11 19 - X -
257 Sacramento St. Big Sky 31 14 17 - X -
258 Pennsylvania Penn. Ivy League 31 11 17 - X -
259 Colgate Patriot League 31 13 17 - X -
260 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 31 16 16 - X -
261 UMKC WAC 30 12 19 - X -
262 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 30 11 20 - X -
263 CSU Northridge Big West 30 10 20 - X -
264 Cornell Ivy League 30 10 18 - X -
265 Alcorn St. Southwestern SWAC 29 15 15 - X -
266 Delaware Colonial Athletic 29 7 23 - X -
267 San Diego West Coast 29 9 20 - X -
268 CSU Fullerton Big West 29 10 20 - X -
269 Youngstown St. Horizon 29 11 21 - X -
270 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 29 11 20 - X -
271 Liberty Big South 29 13 19 - X -
272 Utah Valley WAC 29 12 18 - X -
273 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 28 9 22 - X -
274 American Patriot League 28 12 19 - X -
275 Rice Conference USA 28 12 20 - X -
276 Holy Cross Patriot League 28 14 19 - 100% -
277 Pacific West Coast 28 8 20 - X -
278 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 28 16 15 - X -
279 Portland St. Big Sky 27 13 18 - X -
280 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 27 14 19 - X -
281 FIU Conference USA 27 13 19 - X -
282 Drexel Colonial Athletic 27 6 25 - X -
283 Dartmouth Ivy League 26 10 18 - X -
284 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 26 12 21 - X -
285 Alabama St. Southwestern SWAC 26 13 17 - X -
286 Cleveland St. Horizon 26 9 23 - X -
287 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 26 15 17 - X -
288 North Texas Conference USA 26 12 20 - X -
289 Northern Kentucky Horizon 26 9 21 - X -
290 UMass-Lowell America East 25 11 18 - X -
291 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 25 14 18 - X -
292 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 25 13 17 - X -
293 San Jose St. Mountain West Mntn West 25 8 22 - X -
294 Sacred Heart Northeast 23 12 18 - X -
295 VMI Southern 23 9 21 - X -
296 Campbell Big South 22 12 18 - X -
297 Loyola-MD Patriot League 22 9 21 - X -
298 Troy Sunbelt 22 9 22 - X -
299 Abilene Christian Southland 22 13 18 - X -
300 Charleston Southern Big South 21 9 21 - X -
301 Northern Colorado Big Sky 21 10 21 - X -
302 Drake Missouri Valley 21 7 24 - X -
303 Presbyterian Big South 21 11 20 - X -
304 Stetson Atlantic Sun 21 12 22 - X -
305 Citadel Southern 20 10 22 - X -
306 SE Louisiana Southland 20 12 21 - X -
307 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 20 10 22 - X -
308 Nicholls St. Southland 20 11 23 - X -
309 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 20 9 21 - X -
310 Bradley Missouri Valley 20 5 27 - X -
311 N.C. Central Mideastern 20 13 18 - X -
312 Brown Ivy League 19 8 20 - X -
313 Howard Mideastern 19 12 20 - X -
314 Hartford America East 18 10 23 - X -
315 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 17 8 25 - X -
316 SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville Ohio Valley 17 6 22 - X -
317 Coppin St. Mideastern 17 9 22 - X -
318 Robert Morris Northeast 17 10 22 - X -
319 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 16 8 23 - X -
320 Alabama A&M Southwestern SWAC 16 11 18 - X -
321 Longwood Big South 16 10 23 - X -
322 Binghamton America East 16 8 22 - X -
323 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern SWAC 16 8 25 - X -
324 Lamar Southland 16 11 19 - X -
325 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 16 10 22 - X -
326 Southern Miss Conference USA 15 8 21 - X -
327 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC 15 8 22 - X -
328 Niagara Metro Atlantic 14 7 25 - X -
329 Morgan St. Mideastern 14 9 22 - X -
330 New Orleans Southland 14 10 20 - X -
331 McNeese St. Southland 14 9 20 - X -
332 Marist Metro Atlantic 14 7 23 - X -
333 Maine America East 14 8 22 - X -
334 Central Arkansas Southland 13 7 21 - X -
335 N.C. A&T Mideastern 13 10 22 - X -
336 Northwestern St. N. Western St. Southland 13 8 20 - X -
337 Prairie View A&M Southwestern SWAC 11 7 24 - X -
338 Bryant Northeast 11 8 23 - X -
339 Ill. Chicago Horizon 10 5 25 - X -
340 UMBC America East 10 7 24 - X -
341 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern SWAC 10 8 27 - X -
342 Northern Arizona Big Sky 10 5 25 - X -
343 Lafayette Patriot League 10 6 24 - X -
344 Southern Utah Big Sky 9 6 24 - X -
345 Delaware St. Mideastern 9 7 25 - X -
346 Chicago St. WAC 8 4 27 - X -
347 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 8 5 24 - X -
348 Florida A&M Mideastern 5 8 21 - X -
349 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 4 5 27 - X -
350 Grambling Southwestern SWAC 3 6 24 - X -
351 Central Conn. St. Northeast -5 4 25 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot