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Fri Jan 20 12:30 pm

NCAA Basketball - Week 11 of 17

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 48 and 49. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Middle Tenn., Michigan St., Pittsburgh, Illinois St., Miami, Iowa St.
First 6 teams out - N.C. State, Indiana, Providence, Ole Miss, Wichita St., Marquette

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Villanova Big East 114 18 1 >99% >99% X
2 Kansas Big 12 109 17 1 >99% >99% X
3 Baylor Big 12 108 17 1 >99% >99% X
4 Creighton Big East 108 18 1 >99% >99% X
5 Florida St. ACC 107 17 2 >99% >99% X
6 Kentucky SEC 105 16 2 >99% >99% X
7 Louisville ACC 105 16 3 >99% >99% X
8 Arizona PAC 12 102 17 1 >99% >99% X
9 North Carolina ACC 100 17 3 >99% >99% X
10 Notre Dame ACC 100 16 3 >99% >99% X
11 Butler Big East 100 15 3 >99% >99% X
12 Florida SEC 99 14 3 >99% >99% X
13 Virginia ACC 99 14 3 >99% >99% X
14 Gonzaga West Coast 97 16 0 >99% >99% X
15 Maryland Big 10 97 17 2 >99% >99% X
16 UCLA PAC 12 97 17 1 >99% >99% X
17 Oregon PAC 12 95 16 2 >99% 99% X
18 Duke ACC 95 14 4 >99% 98% X
19 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 93 16 2 >99% 99% X
20 Minnesota Big 10 93 15 4 >99% 98% X
21 Wisconsin Big 10 93 15 3 >99% 96% X
22 South Carolina SEC 92 15 3 >99% 96% X
23 Purdue Big 10 91 15 4 >99% 94% X
24 Xavier Big East 90 13 5 >99% 95% X
25 West Virginia Big 12 90 15 3 >99% 92% X
26 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 88 15 4 >99% 87% X
27 St. Mary's West Coast 87 15 2 >99% 91% X
28 TCU Big 12 87 14 4 >99% 83% X
29 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 86 18 2 >99% 90% X
30 Arkansas SEC 86 14 4 >99% 81% X
31 Virginia Tech ACC 86 14 4 >99% 80% X
32 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 86 16 2 >99% 86% X
33 Kansas St. Big 12 85 14 4 >99% 75% X
34 Dayton Atlantic 10 84 14 4 >99% 78% X
35 USC PAC 12 84 15 4 >99% 78% X
36 Clemson ACC 83 11 7 >99% 67% X
37 Wake Forest ACC 82 11 7 >99% 65% X
38 Southern Methodist American Athletic Am. Athletic 82 16 4 X X X
39 Texas Tech Big 12 81 13 4 >99% 57% X
40 VCU Atlantic 10 80 14 5 >99% 55% X
41 Georgia SEC 80 12 6 >99% 53% X
42 Seton Hall Big East 80 11 6 >99% 53% X
43 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 80 16 3 >99% 65% X
44 Michigan St. Big 10 80 12 7 >99% 52% X
45 Pittsburgh ACC 80 12 7 >99% 51% X
46 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 79 15 4 >99% 56% X
47 Miami ACC 78 12 5 >99% 43% X
48 Iowa St. Big 12 78 11 6 >99% 41% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 104 Line Movers
49 N.C. State ACC 78 13 6 >99% 40% X
50 Indiana Big 10 77 13 6 >99% 40% X
51 Providence Big East 77 13 7 >99% 37% X
52 Ole Miss SEC 77 11 7 >99% 38% X
53 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 77 16 4 >99% 47% X
54 Marquette Big East 77 12 6 >99% 35% X
55 Akron MAC 76 15 3 >99% 49% X
56 California PAC 12 76 12 6 >99% 31% X
57 Illinois Big 10 76 12 7 >99% 32% X
58 Auburn SEC 75 12 6 >99% 28% X
59 La Salle Atlantic 10 75 11 5 >99% 33% X
60 Charleston Colonial Athletic 75 15 5 >99% 36% X
61 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 74 14 4 >99% 30% X
62 Michigan Big 10 74 12 7 >99% 24% X
63 Ohio St. Big 10 74 12 7 >99% 23% X
64 New Mexico St. WAC 74 16 2 >99% 64% X
65 Valparaiso Horizon 73 15 4 >99% 44% X
66 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 73 11 6 >99% 24% X
67 Alabama SEC 72 11 6 >99% 19% X
68 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 14 5 >99% 22% X
69 Penn State Big 10 72 11 8 >99% 16% X
70 Georgia Tech ACC 72 11 7 >99% 16% X
71 Mississippi St. SEC 72 12 5 >99% 17% X
72 Vermont America East 71 16 5 >99% 48% X
73 Utah PAC 12 71 13 5 >99% 14% X
74 Chattanooga Southern 71 14 4 >99% 29% X
75 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 71 14 5 >99% 34% X
76 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 70 14 6 >99% 15% X
77 Oklahoma St. Big 12 69 10 8 >99% 11% X
78 Georgetown Big East 69 10 9 >99% 7% X
79 Winthrop Big South 69 13 4 >99% 41% X
80 Stanford PAC 12 68 11 8 >99% 6% X
81 Nebraska Big 10 68 9 8 >99% 8% X
82 BYU West Coast 68 14 6 >99% 9% X
83 Belmont Ohio Valley 67 12 4 >99% 44% X
84 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 67 12 5 >99% 22% X
85 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 67 12 6 >99% 10% X
86 Tennessee SEC 66 8 9 >99% 5% X
87 Syracuse ACC 66 11 8 >99% 4% X
88 Massachusetts Mass. Atlantic 10 66 12 7 >99% 7% X
89 N.C. Greensboro Southern 66 15 5 >99% 21% X
90 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 66 12 6 >99% 20% X
91 Iowa Big 10 66 11 9 >99% 3% X
92 E. Tennessee St. Southern 65 14 5 >99% 19% X
93 Bucknell Patriot League 65 14 6 >99% 41% X
94 Texas A&M SEC 65 9 8 >99% 4% X
95 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 65 12 5 >99% 12% X
96 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 65 10 10 >99% 6% X
97 Richmond Atlantic 10 64 11 7 >99% 8% X
98 Oklahoma Big 12 63 8 9 >99% 2% X
99 N.C. Asheville Big South 63 13 7 >99% 27% X
100 Boise St. Mountain West Mntn West 63 11 6 >99% 11% X
101 Oakland Horizon 63 14 5 >99% 22% X
102 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 63 10 7 >99% 7% X
103 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 62 14 6 >99% 40% X
104 LSU SEC 62 9 8 >99% 2% X
105 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 62 11 8 >99% 10% X
106 North Dakota St. Summit 62 13 6 >99% 28% X
107 Samford Southern 62 13 6 >99% 15% X
108 Vanderbilt SEC 61 7 10 >99% 1% X
109 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 61 12 6 >99% 17% X
110 San Francisco West Coast 61 13 7 >99% 4% X
111 Canisius Metro Atlantic 61 12 7 >99% 19% X
112 George Mason Atlantic 10 61 12 6 >99% 4% X
113 Davidson Atlantic 10 60 9 8 >99% 3% X
114 Arizona St. PAC 12 60 9 10 >99% 1% X
115 San Diego St. Mountain West Mntn West 59 10 7 >99% 8% X
116 Colorado PAC 12 59 10 9 >99% 1% X
117 Northeastern N. Eastern Colonial Athletic 59 12 7 >99% 10% X
118 Rutgers Big 10 58 11 8 >99% 1% X
119 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 58 13 7 >99% 9% X
120 St. John's Big East 58 9 11 >99% <1% X
121 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 58 10 9 >99% 3% X
122 IPFW Summit 58 14 6 >99% 20% X
123 UAB Conference USA 58 12 7 >99% 13% X
124 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 58 12 6 >99% 11% X
125 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 58 8 9 >99% 3% X
126 Princeton Ivy League 57 10 6 >99% 48% X
127 Old Dominion Conference USA 57 11 7 >99% 11% X
128 Fresno St. Mountain West Mntn West 57 12 7 >99% 7% X
129 Iona Metro Atlantic 57 11 8 >99% 14% X
130 Ohio MAC 57 10 5 >99% 12% X
131 Texas Southern Southwestern SWAC 56 9 8 >99% 60% X
132 Towson Colonial Athletic 56 11 9 >99% 7% X
133 Marshall Conference USA 56 11 8 >99% 10% X
134 Boston College ACC 56 9 10 >99% <1% X
135 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 56 12 7 >99% 8% X
136 Texas Big 12 55 7 11 >99% <1% X
137 Eastern Michigan MAC 55 12 6 >99% 10% X
138 Washington PAC 12 55 9 9 >99% 1% X
139 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 55 11 9 >99% 7% X
140 Sam Houston St. Southland 54 14 6 >99% 30% X
141 Georgia St. Sunbelt 54 10 7 >99% 9% X
142 Green Bay Horizon 54 11 7 >99% 13% X
143 Harvard Ivy League 54 9 5 >99% 24% X
144 Yale Ivy League 54 9 6 >99% 16% X
145 Furman Southern 53 11 8 >99% 10% X
146 Nebraska Omaha Summit 53 11 9 >99% 16% X
147 Lehigh Patriot League 53 9 8 >99% 19% X
148 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 53 13 8 >99% 16% X
149 Wright St. Horizon 53 12 7 >99% 9% X
150 Grand Canyon WAC 53 12 7 X X X
151 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 52 13 6 >99% 9% X
152 Rice Conference USA 52 12 7 >99% 7% X
153 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 52 12 7 >99% 11% X
154 Toledo MAC 52 10 8 >99% 9% X
155 DePaul Big East 52 8 10 >99% <1% X
156 Washington St. PAC 12 52 9 9 >99% <1% X
157 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 52 8 8 >99% 5% X
158 Central Michigan MAC 52 11 7 >99% 7% X
159 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 52 11 8 >99% 4% X
160 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 51 10 8 >99% 11% X
161 UMBC America East 51 12 6 >99% 13% X
162 San Diego West Coast 51 10 8 >99% 2% X
163 Northern Kentucky Horizon 51 11 7 >99% 8% X
164 UC Irvine Big West 50 12 9 >99% 35% X
165 Ball State MAC 50 12 6 >99% 7% X
166 New Hampshire America East 50 12 7 >99% 12% X
167 Eastern Washington Big Sky 50 12 7 >99% 21% X
168 Elon Colonial Athletic 49 11 9 >99% 4% X
169 Stony Brook America East 49 10 8 >99% 14% X
170 Santa Clara West Coast 49 10 9 >99% 2% X
171 South Dakota Summit 49 13 9 >99% 13% X
172 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 49 12 9 >99% 10% X
173 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 49 9 10 >99% 3% X
174 Denver Summit 49 11 8 >99% 12% X
175 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 49 10 7 >99% 15% X
176 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 7 11 >99% 2% X
177 Northern Illinois MAC 48 12 6 >99% 7% X
178 Albany America East 48 11 9 >99% 10% X
179 New Orleans Southland 48 9 7 >99% 22% X
180 Loyola Marymount West Coast 48 8 9 >99% 1% X
181 Duquesne Atlantic 10 48 9 10 >99% 1% X
182 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 48 13 8 >99% 19% X
183 Montana Big Sky 47 10 10 >99% 19% X
184 San Jose St. Mountain West Mntn West 47 9 8 >99% 2% X
185 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 47 9 8 >99% 2% X
186 Rider Metro Atlantic 47 11 8 >99% 7% X
187 UALR Sunbelt 47 10 7 >99% 5% X
188 Portland St. Big Sky 47 11 5 99% 20% X
189 N.C. Central Mideastern 47 12 6 >99% 41% X
190 Coastal Carolina Coast. Car. Sunbelt 46 9 9 >99% 6% X
191 Holy Cross Patriot League 46 10 10 >99% 11% X
192 Portland West Coast 46 9 9 >99% 1% X
193 Loyola-MD Patriot League 46 9 9 >99% 9% X
194 Evansville Missouri Valley 46 10 10 >99% 3% X
195 Radford Big South 46 9 10 >99% 8% X
196 E. Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 46 9 10 >99% 1% X
197 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 45 7 11 >99% 3% X
198 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 45 8 8 >99% 6% X
199 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 45 12 7 >99% 32% X
200 Boston U. Patriot League 44 9 9 >99% 10% X
201 Mercer Southern 44 7 12 >99% 4% X
202 Buffalo MAC 44 8 10 >99% 4% X
203 Liberty Big South 43 11 9 >99% 9% X
204 Weber St. Big Sky 43 9 7 >99% 16% X
205 Murray St. Ohio Valley 43 11 9 >99% 11% X
206 Charlotte Conference USA 43 8 9 >99% 2% X
207 Pennsylvania Penn. Ivy League 43 6 8 >99% 1% X
208 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 43 9 11 >99% 2% X
209 Nicholls St. Southland 43 10 9 >99% 11% X
210 Ill. Chicago Horizon 42 11 8 >99% 4% X
211 Gardner-Webb Big South 42 10 10 99% 5% X
212 UMKC WAC 41 9 11 >99% 8% X
213 Siena Metro Atlantic 41 8 12 >99% 4% X
214 UC Davis Big West 41 11 8 >99% 21% X
215 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 41 8 12 >99% 24% X
216 Pacific West Coast 41 8 11 X X X
217 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 41 7 12 >99% 2% X
218 Fordham Atlantic 10 40 8 11 >99% <1% X
219 Bradley Missouri Valley 40 8 12 >99% 2% X
220 Troy Sunbelt 40 10 9 >99% 3% X
221 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 40 8 10 >99% 1% X
222 North Dakota Big Sky 40 10 7 >99% 12% X
223 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 40 10 7 >99% 3% X
224 South Alabama Sunbelt 40 9 9 >99% 3% X
225 Western Kentucky Conference USA 40 9 10 >99% 2% X
226 Brown Ivy League 40 10 8 >99% 5% X
227 Navy Patriot League 40 9 10 >99% 6% X
228 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 40 11 10 >99% 12% X
229 IUPUI Summit 38 9 11 >99% 5% X
230 Columbia Ivy League 38 6 7 >99% 6% X
231 Stephen F. Austin Southland 38 9 9 99% 10% X
232 Kent State MAC 38 9 9 >99% 2% X
233 Wofford Southern 38 8 11 >99% 2% X
234 Utah Valley WAC 38 9 8 >99% 6% X
235 Missouri SEC 37 5 12 X X X
236 SE Louisiana Southland 36 10 8 >99% 8% X
237 High Point Big South 36 8 10 >99% 4% X
238 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 36 13 8 >99% 9% X
239 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 36 8 8 >99% 5% X
240 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 36 8 11 >99% 3% X
241 Lamar Southland 36 10 8 >99% 6% X
242 Delaware Colonial Athletic 36 8 12 >99% 1% X
243 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 36 7 10 >99% 2% X
244 Western Michigan MAC 36 6 11 >99% 2% X
245 Campbell Big South 36 10 9 >99% 3% X
246 Citadel Southern 36 9 12 >99% 2% X
247 New Jersey Tech Atlantic Sun 35 9 11 >99% 8% X
248 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 35 7 12 >99% 2% X
249 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 35 8 10 >99% 16% X
250 Long Beach St. Big West 34 7 14 >99% 11% X
251 Houston Baptist Southland 34 7 10 99% 4% X
252 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 34 6 11 >99% <1% X
253 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 34 5 13 >99% <1% X
254 Cleveland St. Horizon 34 6 13 >99% 1% X
255 Oral Roberts Summit 34 6 14 >99% 3% X
256 Western Carolina Southern 33 6 13 >99% 1% X
257 Miami OH MAC 33 8 10 >99% 1% X
258 Drexel Colonial Athletic 33 7 12 >99% 1% X
259 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 33 6 10 >99% 1% X
260 Hawaii Big West 33 8 9 >99% 11% X
261 Bowling Green MAC 32 7 11 >99% 1% X
262 Army Patriot League 32 8 10 >99% 2% X
263 Seattle WAC 32 8 9 98% 3% X
264 Idaho Big Sky 32 8 9 >99% 5% X
265 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 32 9 9 >99% 1% X
266 Youngstown St. Horizon 31 8 12 >99% 1% X
267 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 31 9 10 >99% 1% X
268 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 31 8 13 >99% 1% X
269 South Dakota St. Summit 30 8 12 >99% 2% X
270 North Florida Atlantic Sun 30 8 13 >99% 5% X
271 Marist Metro Atlantic 30 6 13 >99% 1% X
272 CSU Northridge Big West 30 7 11 X X X
273 Pepperdine West Coast 30 5 14 >99% <1% X
274 Drake Missouri Valley 30 6 12 >99% 1% X
275 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 29 4 14 >99% <1% X
276 UMass-Lowell America East 29 8 12 X X X
277 Binghamton America East 29 9 11 >99% 2% X
278 UT-Rio Grande Valley WAC 28 9 12 >99% 3% X
279 Oregon St. PAC 12 28 4 15 >99% <1% X
280 James Madison Colonial Athletic 28 6 14 >99% <1% X
281 Robert Morris Northeast 28 7 13 >99% 6% X
282 CSU Fullerton Big West 28 8 10 >99% 8% X
283 Wagner Northeast 27 7 10 >99% 7% X
284 Northern Colorado Big Sky 27 7 11 >99% 3% X
285 Incarnate Word Southland 27 7 10 X X X
286 LA Monroe Sunbelt 27 6 12 >99% <1% X
287 McNeese St. Southland 26 6 11 99% 2% X
288 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 26 7 11 >99% 7% X
289 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 26 8 13 >99% 1% X
290 Charleston Southern Big South 26 6 12 >99% 1% X
291 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 26 4 12 >99% 9% X
292 Southern Southwestern SWAC 25 8 10 >99% 10% X
293 Chicago St. WAC 25 5 15 >99% 2% X
294 Sacred Heart Northeast 25 8 12 >99% 5% X
295 Northwestern St. N. Western St. Southland 25 7 9 98% 1% X
296 Montana St. Big Sky 25 8 12 >99% 3% X
297 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 25 8 13 >99% 1% X
298 Detroit Horizon 25 4 14 >99% <1% X
299 Stetson Atlantic Sun 25 8 12 >99% 3% X
300 Longwood Big South 24 6 12 >99% 1% X
301 Abilene Christian Southland 24 7 10 X X X
302 Morgan St. Mideastern 24 7 10 99% 11% X
303 North Texas Conference USA 24 6 12 >99% <1% X
304 Western Illinois Summit 24 6 11 >99% 1% X
305 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 24 6 14 >99% 1% X
306 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 24 5 14 >99% <1% X
307 Central Arkansas Southland 24 4 15 X X X
308 UC Riverside Big West 23 5 11 >99% 5% X
309 American Patriot League 23 5 13 >99% 1% X
310 Hampton Mideastern 23 6 11 >99% 8% X
311 Savannah St. Mideastern 22 6 12 >99% 7% X
312 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 22 7 13 >99% 3% X
313 VMI Southern 22 4 13 >99% <1% X
314 Prairie View A&M Southwestern SWAC 21 5 14 >99% 7% X
315 UCSB Big West 21 3 13 >99% 4% X
316 Lafayette Patriot League 21 5 12 >99% <1% X
317 Jackson St. Southwestern SWAC 21 7 12 >99% 7% X
318 Alcorn St. Southwestern SWAC 21 6 11 >99% 7% X
319 Cornell Ivy League 21 4 12 >99% <1% X
320 Norfolk St. Mideastern 20 5 13 >99% 6% X
321 Hartford America East 20 6 14 >99% 1% X
322 Southern Miss Conference USA 20 6 12 X X X
323 Niagara Metro Atlantic 20 5 14 99% <1% X
324 Cal Poly Big West 20 5 13 >99% 4% X
325 Colgate Patriot League 19 5 15 >99% <1% X
326 Bryant Northeast 19 5 15 >99% 2% X
327 Maine America East 19 5 16 >99% <1% X
328 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 18 5 12 >99% <1% X
329 Dartmouth Ivy League 18 3 11 >99% <1% X
330 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 17 4 14 >99% 4% X
331 Delaware St. Mideastern 16 5 14 >99% 4% X
332 Idaho St. Big Sky 16 4 14 >99% 1% X
333 Howard Mideastern 16 4 14 >99% 4% X
334 Coppin St. Mideastern 16 5 15 >99% 4% X
335 Presbyterian Big South 15 4 14 >99% <1% X
336 Grambling Southwestern SWAC 15 6 12 >99% 4% X
337 Sacramento St. Big Sky 14 5 12 >99% 1% X
338 SIU Edwardsville SIU Ed.ville Ohio Valley 14 5 15 >99% <1% X
339 UTEP Conference USA 14 4 13 >99% <1% X
340 FIU Conference USA 12 4 15 >99% <1% X
341 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern SWAC 11 2 16 >99% 2% X
342 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 9 4 16 >99% 1% X
343 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 9 4 14 >99% 1% X
344 Southern Utah Big Sky 8 4 15 99% <1% X
345 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern SWAC 8 4 15 >99% 2% X
346 Alabama St. Southwestern SWAC 7 4 13 >99% 1% X
347 Northern Arizona Big Sky 4 3 15 98% <1% X
348 Florida A&M Mideastern 3 4 14 X X X
349 Central Conn. St. Northeast 1 2 16 >99% <1% X
350 N.C. A&T Mideastern -1 1 17 >99% <1% X
351 Alabama A&M Southwestern SWAC -7 1 15 >99% <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot