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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 47 and 48. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Dayton, Arizona St., Tennessee, Toledo, BYU, Nebraska
First 6 teams out - Iowa, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Stephen F. Austin, Minnesota, N.C. State

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what team made the tournament? This year we had only 2 teams that did not make tournament as we predicted, Toledo and Missouri. Toledo was located 3 spots above the cutline with a MWP 2 points greater than the cutline. Missouri was located 7 spots above the cutline with a MWP 3 points greater than the cutline. These two teams were replaced with Iowa and N.C. State. Iowa was located exactly on the cutline while N.C. State was located 6 spots below the cutline with a MWP 2 points less than the cutline. Overall we think we did a good job this year but we will be working to make the list more accurate next year.


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Florida SEC 115 32 2 - 100% -
2 Arizona PAC 12 111 30 4 - 100% -
3 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 106 34 0 - 100% -
4 Villanova Big East 105 28 4 - 100% -
5 Kansas Big 12 105 24 9 - 100% -
6 Iowa St. Big 12 103 26 7 - 100% -
7 Wisconsin Big 10 103 26 7 - 100% -
8 Virginia ACC 101 28 6 - 100% -
9 Syracuse ACC 99 27 5 - 100% -
10 Creighton Big East 99 26 7 - 100% -
11 Michigan Big 10 99 25 8 - 100% -
12 Michigan St. Big 10 99 26 8 - 100% -
13 Duke ACC 98 26 8 - 100% -
14 UCLA PAC 12 96 26 8 - 100% -
15 Louisville American Athletic 95 29 5 - 100% -
16 San Diego St. Mountain West 94 29 4 - 100% -
17 Oklahoma Big 12 94 23 9 - 100% -
18 New Mexico Mountain West 93 27 6 - 100% -
19 Kentucky SEC 93 24 10 - 100% -
20 Cincinnati American Athletic 92 27 6 - 100% -
21 Ohio St. Big 10 92 25 9 - 100% -
22 Baylor Big 12 92 24 11 - 100% -
23 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 92 24 8 - 100% -
24 Texas Big 12 92 23 10 - 100% -
25 Connecticut American Athletic 91 26 8 - 100% -
26 Gonzaga West Coast 91 28 6 - 100% -
27 VCU Atlantic 10 91 26 8 - 100% -
28 Pittsburgh ACC 91 25 9 - 100% -
29 North Carolina ACC 90 23 9 - 100% -
30 Oregon PAC 12 90 23 9 - 100% -
31 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 90 26 6 - 100% -
32 Colorado PAC 12 88 23 11 - 100% -
33 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 87 24 8 - 100% -
34 Oklahoma St. Big 12 86 21 12 - 100% -
35 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 86 24 9 - 100% -
36 Providence Big East 86 23 11 - 100% -
37 Stanford PAC 12 84 21 12 - 100% -
38 Kansas St. Big 12 83 20 12 - 100% -
39 Memphis American Athletic 83 23 9 - 100% -
40 Xavier Big East 83 21 12 - 100% -
41 Missouri SEC 83 22 11 - 100% -
42 Dayton Atlantic 10 82 23 10 - 100% -
43 Arizona St. PAC 12 82 21 11 - 100% -
44 Tennessee SEC 82 21 12 - 100% -
45 Toledo MAC 82 27 6 - 100% -
46 BYU West Coast 82 23 11 - 100% -
47 Nebraska Big 10 81 19 12 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
48 Iowa Big 10 80 20 12 - X -
49 Southern Methodist American Athletic 79 23 9 - X -
50 Southern Miss Conference USA 79 27 6 - X -
51 Stephen F. Austin Southland 79 31 2 - 100% -
52 Minnesota Big 10 79 20 13 - X -
53 N.C. State ACC 79 21 13 - X -
54 St. John's Big East 79 20 12 - X -
55 Harvard Ivy League 78 26 4 - 100% -
56 Florida St. ACC 78 19 13 - X -
57 Arkansas SEC 78 21 11 - X -
58 California PAC 12 78 19 13 - X -
59 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 78 27 7 - X -
60 Illinois Big 10 77 19 14 - X -
61 North Dakota St. Summit 76 25 6 - 100% -
62 Georgetown Big East 75 17 14 - X -
63 LSU SEC 75 19 13 - X -
64 Utah PAC 12 75 21 11 - X -
65 Green Bay Horizon 74 24 6 - X -
66 Clemson ACC 74 20 12 - X -
67 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 74 25 7 - 100% -
68 West Virginia Big 12 74 17 15 - X -
69 St. Mary's West Coast 73 22 11 - X -
70 Georgia SEC 73 19 13 - X -
71 Maryland ACC 72 17 15 - X -
72 Richmond Atlantic 10 72 19 14 - X -
73 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 71 23 10 - X -
74 Western Michigan MAC 71 23 9 - 100% -
75 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 71 24 9 - X -
76 Delaware Colonial Athletic 71 25 9 - 100% -
77 Marquette Big East 71 17 15 - X -
78 Ole Miss SEC 70 19 14 - X -
79 Indiana Big 10 70 17 15 - X -
80 San Francisco West Coast 70 21 11 - X -
81 Ohio MAC 70 23 11 - X -
82 Belmont Ohio Valley 70 24 9 - X -
83 Tulsa Conference USA 69 21 12 - 100% -
84 Boise St. Mountain West 69 21 13 - X -
85 Iona Metro Atlantic 68 22 10 - X -
86 New Mexico St. WAC 68 26 9 - 100% -
87 Georgia St. Sunbelt 68 25 8 - X -
88 Washington PAC 12 67 17 15 - X -
89 Oregon St. PAC 12 67 16 15 - X -
90 UTEP Conference USA 67 23 10 - X -
91 Wake Forest ACC 67 17 16 - X -
92 Akron MAC 67 21 12 - X -
93 UNLV Mountain West 66 20 13 - X -
94 Mercer Atlantic Sun 66 26 8 - 100% -
95 Texas Tech Big 12 66 14 18 - X -
96 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 65 20 12 - X -
97 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 65 18 15 - X -
98 Miami ACC 65 17 16 - X -
99 N.C. Central Mideastern 65 28 5 - 100% -
100 Eastern Michigan MAC 65 21 14 - X -
101 Boston U. Patriot League 64 24 10 - X -
102 Penn State Big 10 64 15 17 - X -
103 Towson Colonial Athletic 64 23 10 - X -
104 Purdue Big 10 63 15 17 - X -
105 UCSB Big West 63 21 9 - X -
106 Vanderbilt SEC 63 15 16 - X -
107 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 63 23 11 - 100% -
108 Buffalo MAC 63 19 10 - X -
109 Cleveland St. Horizon 63 21 11 - X -
110 Seton Hall Big East 63 17 17 - X -
111 Texas A&M SEC 62 17 15 - X -
112 Northwestern Big 10 62 14 19 - X -
113 La Salle Atlantic 10 62 15 16 - X -
114 Notre Dame ACC 62 15 17 - X -
115 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 62 24 9 - 100% -
116 UC Irvine Big West 61 23 11 - X -
117 Alabama SEC 61 13 19 - X -
118 Utah St. Mountain West 61 18 14 - X -
119 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 60 16 15 - X -
120 Georgia Tech ACC 60 16 17 - X -
121 Princeton Ivy League 60 20 8 - X -
122 Butler Big East 59 14 17 - X -
123 IPFW Summit 59 24 10 - X -
124 Auburn SEC 58 14 16 - X -
125 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 58 20 11 - X -
126 Houston American Athletic 58 17 16 - X -
127 Fresno St. Mountain West 58 17 16 - X -
128 South Carolina SEC 58 14 20 - X -
129 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 58 21 13 - 100% -
130 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 58 20 12 - X -
131 Western Kentucky Sunbelt 57 20 12 - X -
132 Canisius Metro Atlantic 57 21 12 - X -
133 Wyoming Mountain West 57 18 14 - X -
134 Sam Houston St. Southland 57 23 10 - X -
135 DePaul Big East 56 12 21 - X -
136 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 56 16 15 - X -
137 Pacific West Coast 56 15 15 - X -
138 Vermont America East 56 22 10 - X -
139 Hawaii Big West 55 20 11 - X -
140 Drexel Colonial Athletic 55 16 14 - X -
141 Nevada Mountain West 55 15 17 - X -
142 Davidson Southern 55 20 12 - X -
143 Charlotte Conference USA 54 17 14 - X -
144 UAB Conference USA 54 18 13 - X -
145 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 54 14 18 - X -
146 Robert Morris Northeast 53 21 13 - X -
147 South Dakota St. Summit 53 19 12 - X -
148 American Patriot League 53 20 12 - 100% -
149 Columbia Ivy League 53 19 12 - X -
150 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 53 20 13 - X -
151 Pepperdine West Coast 52 15 16 - X -
152 Utah Valley WAC 52 20 11 - X -
153 San Diego West Coast 52 16 16 - X -
154 Portland West Coast 52 15 16 - X -
155 Stony Brook America East 52 23 10 - X -
156 Denver Summit 51 16 15 - X -
157 USC PAC 12 51 11 21 - X -
158 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 51 22 12 - X -
159 Holy Cross Patriot League 51 19 13 - X -
160 Murray St. Ohio Valley 51 18 11 - X -
161 Colorado St. Mountain West 51 16 16 - X -
162 Wright St. Horizon 50 20 14 - X -
163 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 50 19 13 - X -
164 Drake Missouri Valley 50 15 16 - X -
165 George Mason Atlantic 10 50 11 20 - X -
166 Long Beach St. Big West 49 15 17 - X -
167 Weber St. Big Sky 49 19 11 - 100% -
168 Duquesne Atlantic 10 48 13 17 - X -
169 Valparaiso Horizon 48 18 15 - X -
170 Old Dominion Conference USA 48 16 17 - X -
171 TCU Big 12 48 9 22 - X -
172 Washington St. PAC 12 48 10 21 - X -
173 Mississippi St. SEC 48 14 19 - X -
174 Northwestern St. Southland 48 17 14 - X -
175 Wofford Southern 47 20 12 - 100% -
176 Loyola Marymount West Coast 47 13 19 - X -
177 Oral Roberts Southland 47 17 16 - X -
178 Yale Ivy League 47 15 13 - X -
179 UCF American Athletic 47 13 18 - X -
180 Northern Illinois MAC 46 15 17 - X -
181 Southern Southwestern 46 19 13 - X -
182 Kent State MAC 46 16 16 - X -
183 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 46 19 14 - X -
184 Bucknell Patriot League 46 16 14 - X -
185 Miami OH MAC 46 13 18 - X -
186 Coastal Carolina Big South 46 21 12 - 100% -
187 Rutgers American Athletic 45 12 21 - X -
188 North Texas Conference USA 45 16 16 - X -
189 Tulane Conference USA 45 17 16 - X -
190 Temple American Athletic 45 9 22 - X -
191 South Florida American Athletic 45 12 20 - X -
192 Wagner Northeast 44 19 12 - X -
193 Siena Metro Atlantic 44 15 17 - X -
194 Elon Southern 44 18 14 - X -
195 Winthrop Big South 44 20 13 - X -
196 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 44 14 19 - X -
197 Evansville Missouri Valley 44 14 19 - X -
198 Santa Clara West Coast 44 14 19 - X -
199 Bryant Northeast 44 18 14 - X -
200 Oakland Horizon 44 13 20 - X -
201 Hampton Mideastern 44 18 12 - X -
202 UALR Sunbelt 44 15 17 - X -
203 Boston College ACC 43 8 24 - X -
204 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 43 15 17 - X -
205 Nebraska Omaha Summit 43 16 14 - X -
206 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 43 18 14 - X -
207 Montana Big Sky 42 17 13 - X -
208 E. Tennessee St. Atlantic Sun 42 18 15 - X -
209 North Florida Atlantic Sun 42 16 16 - X -
210 Virginia Tech ACC 42 9 22 - X -
211 Fordham Atlantic 10 42 10 21 - X -
212 Albany America East 42 18 14 - 100% -
213 Bowling Green MAC 41 12 20 - X -
214 High Point Big South 41 16 14 - X -
215 VMI Big South 41 19 12 - X -
216 Incarnate Word Southland 41 23 8 - X -
217 E. Carolina Conference USA 41 17 16 - X -
218 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 41 16 16 - 100% -
219 Rider Metro Atlantic 41 14 17 - X -
220 Northern Colorado Big Sky 41 18 13 - X -
221 Radford Big South 40 21 12 - X -
222 Grand Canyon WAC 40 15 14 - X -
223 Brown Ivy League 40 15 13 - X -
224 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 40 17 16 - X -
225 Youngstown St. Horizon 40 15 17 - X -
226 Cal Poly Big West 40 13 19 - 100% -
227 Texas Southern Southwestern 40 19 14 - 100% -
228 FIU Conference USA 40 15 16 - X -
229 North Dakota Big Sky 40 17 16 - X -
230 Air Force Mountain West 40 12 18 - X -
231 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 40 17 15 - X -
232 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 40 15 15 - X -
233 N.C. Asheville Big South 40 17 15 - X -
234 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 39 18 14 - X -
235 Western Carolina Southern 39 19 15 - X -
236 Charleston Colonial Athletic 39 14 18 - X -
237 Morgan St. Mideastern 39 15 16 - X -
238 Bradley Missouri Valley 39 12 20 - X -
239 Detroit Horizon 38 13 19 - X -
240 Norfolk St. Mideastern 38 19 14 - X -
241 Alabama St. Southwestern 38 19 12 - X -
242 Gardner-Webb Big South 38 18 15 - X -
243 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 38 11 21 - X -
244 Idaho WAC 37 16 18 - X -
245 Chattanooga Southern 37 18 14 - X -
246 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 37 14 17 - X -
247 Portland St. Big Sky 37 17 14 - X -
248 LA Monroe Sunbelt 37 9 17 - X -
249 CSU Northridge Big West 37 17 18 - X -
250 Eastern Washington Big Sky 36 15 16 - X -
251 Hartford America East 36 17 16 - X -
252 James Madison Colonial Athletic 36 11 20 - X -
253 Army Patriot League 36 15 16 - X -
254 Marist Metro Atlantic 35 12 19 - X -
255 Northern Arizona Big Sky 35 15 17 - X -
256 Nicholls St. Southland 35 14 15 - X -
257 Lehigh Patriot League 35 14 18 - X -
258 South Dakota Summit 34 12 18 - X -
259 Chicago St. WAC 33 13 19 - X -
260 New Orleans Southland 33 11 15 - X -
261 Colgate Patriot League 32 13 18 - X -
262 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 31 13 18 - X -
263 South Alabama Sunbelt 31 11 20 - X -
264 Seattle WAC 31 13 17 - X -
265 Sacramento St. Big Sky 31 14 16 - X -
266 Dartmouth Ivy League 31 12 16 - X -
267 McNeese St. Southland 31 11 20 - X -
268 CSU Fullerton Big West 30 11 20 - X -
269 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 30 10 22 - X -
270 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 30 13 19 - X -
271 Alabama A&M Southwestern 29 14 16 - X -
272 Marshall Conference USA 29 11 22 - X -
273 UMKC WAC 29 10 20 - X -
274 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 28 10 22 - X -
275 Troy Sunbelt 28 11 20 - X -
276 Coppin St. Mideastern 28 12 20 - X -
277 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 28 12 18 - X -
278 Montana St. Big Sky 28 14 17 - X -
279 Savannah St. Mideastern 28 12 19 - X -
280 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 28 10 23 - X -
281 Charleston Southern Big South 27 13 18 - X -
282 Central Michigan MAC 27 10 21 - X -
283 N.C. Greensboro Southern 27 14 18 - X -
284 Loyola-MD Patriot League 27 11 19 - X -
285 Lafayette Patriot League 27 11 20 - X -
286 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 27 11 21 - X -
287 San Jose St. Mountain West 26 7 24 - X -
288 SE Louisiana Southland 26 12 18 - X -
289 Pennsylvania Ivy League 26 8 20 - X -
290 Western Illinois Summit 26 10 20 - X -
291 Florida A&M Mideastern 25 14 18 - X -
292 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 25 9 23 - X -
293 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 25 11 19 - X -
294 Idaho St. Big Sky 25 11 18 - X -
295 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 24 12 18 - X -
296 Jackson St. Southwestern 24 11 20 - X -
297 Georgia Southern Southern 24 15 19 - X -
298 New Jersey Tech Independent 22 13 16 - X -
299 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 22 8 23 - X -
300 Samford Southern 22 13 20 - X -
301 UMass-Lowell America East 22 10 17 - X -
302 UC Riverside Big West 22 10 21 - X -
303 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 21 11 20 - X -
304 Alcorn St. Southwestern 21 12 19 - X -
305 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 21 11 23 - X -
306 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 21 10 21 - X -
307 Central Conn. St. Northeast 21 11 19 - X -
308 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 21 9 21 - X -
309 Rice Conference USA 21 7 23 - X -
310 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 21 10 21 - X -
311 Ball State MAC 20 5 25 - X -
312 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 20 10 21 - X -
313 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 20 7 25 - X -
314 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 20 8 22 - X -
315 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 20 9 20 - X -
316 UC Davis Big West 19 9 22 - X -
317 TX Pan American WAC 19 9 23 - X -
318 Niagara Metro Atlantic 18 7 26 - X -
319 Abilene Christian Southland 18 13 22 - X -
320 Liberty Big South 18 11 21 - X -
321 Campbell Big South 18 12 20 - X -
322 Ill. Chicago Horizon 17 6 25 - X -
323 Central Arkansas Southland 16 8 21 - X -
324 Navy Patriot League 16 9 21 - X -
325 Delaware St. Mideastern 15 9 21 - X -
326 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 15 5 25 - X -
327 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 15 9 21 - X -
328 IUPUI Summit 14 6 26 - X -
329 UMBC America East 14 9 21 - X -
330 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 13 8 23 - X -
331 N.C. A&T Mideastern 13 9 23 - X -
332 Stetson Atlantic Sun 13 7 24 - X -
333 Appalachian St. Southern 12 9 21 - X -
334 Howard Mideastern 11 8 25 - X -
335 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 11 8 23 - X -
336 Furman Southern 10 9 21 - X -
337 Houston Baptist Southland 10 6 25 - X -
338 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 10 6 25 - X -
339 Longwood Big South 9 8 24 - X -
340 Binghamton America East 9 7 23 - X -
341 Maine America East 9 6 23 - X -
342 Lamar Southland 5 4 26 - X -
343 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 5 7 25 - X -
344 Cornell Ivy League 4 2 26 - X -
345 New Hampshire America East 4 6 24 - X -
346 Citadel Southern 3 7 26 - X -
347 Sacred Heart Northeast 3 5 26 - X -
348 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 3 6 24 - X -
349 Grambling Southwestern 2 5 24 - X -
350 Presbyterian Big South 1 6 26 - X -
351 Southern Utah Big Sky -1 2 27 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot