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NCAA Basketball - Week 6 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 50 and 51. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Minnesota, Buffalo, Davidson, Harvard, Indiana, Alabama
First 6 teams out - Illinois, Iowa, Providence, Green Bay, UCLA, South Carolina


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NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Kentucky SEC 103 11 0 > 99% > 99% X
2 Kansas Big 12 102 8 1 > 99% > 99% X
3 Virginia ACC 100 9 0 > 99% > 99% X
4 Villanova Big East 100 10 0 > 99% 99% X
5 Duke ACC 98 9 0 > 99% 98% X
6 Arizona PAC 12 96 11 0 > 99% 98% X
7 Louisville ACC 95 9 0 > 99% 97% X
8 Texas Big 12 95 9 1 > 99% 95% X
9 Wisconsin Big 10 94 10 1 > 99% 96% X
10 Baylor Big 12 90 8 1 > 99% 87% X
11 Seton Hall Big East 89 8 1 > 99% 85% X
12 Washington PAC 12 89 7 0 > 99% 85% X
13 Iowa St. Big 12 89 8 1 > 99% 82% X
14 Miami ACC 88 9 1 > 99% 84% X
15 TCU Big 12 88 10 0 > 99% 82% X
16 Maryland Big 10 87 10 1 > 99% 80% X
17 Penn State Big 10 87 10 1 > 99% 80% X
18 Gonzaga West Coast 87 10 1 > 99% 84% X
19 West Virginia Big 12 86 9 1 > 99% 77% X
20 Colorado St. Mountain West 85 9 0 > 99% 81% X
21 Ohio St. Big 10 85 8 1 > 99% 72% X
22 LSU SEC 84 7 2 > 99% 73% X
23 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 83 9 1 > 99% 77% X
24 VCU Atlantic 10 83 7 3 > 99% 72% X
25 Oklahoma Big 12 82 7 2 > 99% 64% X
26 Wichita St. Missouri Valley 82 8 1 > 99% 73% X
27 Old Dominion Conference USA 82 7 1 > 99% 72% X
28 Oklahoma St. Big 12 82 9 1 > 99% 61% X
29 Utah PAC 12 81 7 2 > 99% 64% X
30 St. John's Big East 81 8 1 > 99% 61% X
31 Arkansas SEC 81 7 2 > 99% 62% X
32 Xavier Big East 80 8 2 > 99% 59% X
33 Texas A&M SEC 80 7 2 > 99% 58% X
34 California PAC 12 79 9 1 > 99% 56% X
35 North Carolina ACC 79 7 3 > 99% 54% X
36 San Diego St. Mountain West 78 7 2 > 99% 55% X
37 Notre Dame ACC 77 10 1 > 99% 52% X
38 Butler Big East 77 7 2 > 99% 50% X
39 Georgetown Big East 77 6 2 > 99% 50% X
40 Dayton Atlantic 10 77 7 2 > 99% 51% X
41 Texas Tech Big 12 76 7 1 > 99% 47% X
42 N.C. State ACC 76 8 2 > 99% 48% X
43 Michigan St. Big 10 76 7 3 > 99% 47% X
44 Georgia Tech ACC 75 7 2 > 99% 45% X
45 Minnesota Big 10 75 8 2 > 99% 45% X
46 Buffalo MAC 75 6 2 > 99% 49% X
47 Davidson Atlantic 10 74 8 1 > 99% 43% X
48 Harvard Ivy League 74 7 1 > 99% 55% X
49 Indiana Big 10 73 8 2 > 99% 39% X
50 Alabama SEC 73 6 3 > 99% 40% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 103 Line Movers
51 Illinois Big 10 73 7 3 > 99% 40% X
52 Iowa Big 10 73 8 3 > 99% 37% X
53 Providence Big East 73 8 3 > 99% 37% X
54 Green Bay Horizon 72 7 2 > 99% 48% X
55 UCLA PAC 12 72 8 3 > 99% 36% X
56 South Carolina SEC 72 5 2 > 99% 37% X
57 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10 72 6 3 > 99% 36% X
58 Houston American Athletic 70 5 1 > 99% 37% X
59 Boise St. Mountain West 70 8 2 > 99% 32% X
60 Stanford PAC 12 70 5 2 > 99% 33% X
61 Syracuse ACC 70 6 3 > 99% 30% X
62 Purdue Big 10 70 8 3 > 99% 30% X
63 Tennessee SEC 69 4 3 > 99% 31% X
64 Tulane American Athletic 69 8 1 > 99% 32% X
65 Vanderbilt SEC 68 7 2 > 99% 28% X
66 Georgia SEC 68 5 3 > 99% 26% X
67 Charlotte Conference USA 67 5 4 > 99% 28% X
68 Cincinnati American Athletic 67 6 2 > 99% 30% X
69 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 67 6 3 > 99% 26% X
70 Southern Methodist American Athletic 67 6 3 > 99% 28% X
71 BYU West Coast 67 7 3 > 99% 28% X
72 Marquette Big East 67 5 4 > 99% 24% X
73 Illinois St. Missouri Valley 67 5 3 > 99% 26% X
74 Clemson ACC 67 6 3 > 99% 23% X
75 UTEP Conference USA 67 6 3 > 99% 26% X
76 Wofford Southern 67 8 2 > 99% 41% X
77 Oregon St. PAC 12 67 7 2 > 99% 25% X
78 Northeastern Colonial Athletic 67 6 2 > 99% 32% X
79 Yale Ivy League 66 7 3 > 99% 31% X
80 Florida SEC 66 6 4 > 99% 22% X
81 Northwestern Big 10 66 6 3 > 99% 23% X
82 Rutgers Big 10 66 6 4 > 99% 21% X
83 Colorado PAC 12 66 6 3 > 99% 21% X
84 Valparaiso Horizon 66 10 2 > 99% 29% X
85 Bowling Green MAC 66 6 2 > 99% 24% X
86 Creighton Big East 65 7 3 > 99% 21% X
87 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 65 6 4 > 99% 21% X
88 Ole Miss SEC 65 6 3 > 99% 21% X
89 Georgia St. Sunbelt 65 6 2 > 99% 36% X
90 Eastern Michigan MAC 65 8 1 > 99% 25% X
91 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 65 6 2 > 99% 21% X
92 Temple American Athletic 65 6 4 > 99% 23% X
93 UNLV Mountain West 65 6 2 > 99% 22% X
94 Lafayette Patriot League 64 7 2 > 99% 31% X
95 UC Davis Big West 64 7 1 > 99% 36% X
96 Evansville Missouri Valley 64 7 2 > 99% 19% X
97 Nebraska Big 10 64 6 3 > 99% 17% X
98 Wyoming Mountain West 64 9 2 > 99% 18% X
99 Portland West Coast 63 7 2 > 99% 21% X
100 Pittsburgh ACC 63 6 3 > 99% 16% X
101 Michigan Big 10 63 6 4 > 99% 16% X
102 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 63 8 2 > 99% 41% X
103 Oregon PAC 12 63 6 3 > 99% 16% X
104 James Madison Colonial Athletic 63 6 3 > 99% 24% X
105 New Mexico Mountain West 63 6 3 > 99% 17% X
106 DePaul Big East 63 6 3 > 99% 15% X
107 Kansas St. Big 12 62 6 4 > 99% 13% X
108 USC PAC 12 62 6 4 > 99% 14% X
109 St. Mary's West Coast 62 6 2 > 99% 19% X
110 Eastern Washington Big Sky 62 8 3 > 99% 32% X
111 Connecticut American Athletic 61 4 3 > 99% 19% X
112 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 61 7 2 > 99% 21% X
113 Arizona St. PAC 12 61 6 4 > 99% 13% X
114 Kent State MAC 61 6 2 > 99% 18% X
115 Iona Metro Atlantic 61 6 3 > 99% 32% X
116 Richmond Atlantic 10 60 4 4 > 99% 13% X
117 Stephen F. Austin Southland 60 7 3 > 99% 28% X
118 Boston College ACC 60 6 3 > 99% 12% X
119 Coastal Carolina Big South 59 8 1 > 99% 24% X
120 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley 59 6 2 > 99% 13% X
121 Mississippi St. SEC 59 5 3 > 99% 10% X
122 Army Patriot League 58 6 2 > 99% 20% X
123 Pepperdine West Coast 58 6 2 > 99% 13% X
124 Belmont Ohio Valley 58 7 4 > 99% 21% X
125 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 58 5 4 > 99% 8% X
126 Tenn-Martin Ohio Valley 58 6 2 > 99% 22% X
127 American Patriot League 57 6 4 > 99% 18% X
128 Texas Arlington Sunbelt 57 5 4 > 99% 20% X
129 Gardner-Webb Big South 57 6 4 > 99% 20% X
130 Long Beach St. Big West 57 5 5 > 99% 20% X
131 E. Tennessee St. Southern 57 6 2 > 99% 23% X
132 Columbia Ivy League 57 5 3 > 99% 14% X
133 High Point Big South 57 6 3 > 99% 21% X
134 Towson Colonial Athletic 56 7 3 > 99% 14% X
135 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 56 7 3 > 99% 9% X
136 Wright St. Horizon 56 7 4 > 99% 14% X
137 San Diego West Coast 55 6 5 > 99% 8% X
138 Utah St. Mountain West 55 4 4 > 99% 7% X
139 William & Mary Colonial Athletic 55 4 3 > 99% 12% X
140 Western Kentucky Conference USA 55 4 4 > 99% 8% X
141 Western Michigan MAC 54 5 3 > 99% 8% X
142 Missouri SEC 54 5 5 > 99% 4% X
143 Wake Forest ACC 54 5 5 > 99% 3% X
144 N.C. Wilmington Colonial Athletic 54 3 3 > 99% 12% X
145 Murray St. Ohio Valley 54 6 4 > 99% 17% X
146 Incarnate Word Southland 54 6 1 X X X
147 Central Michigan MAC 54 5 1 > 99% 8% X
148 La Salle Atlantic 10 54 5 5 > 99% 5% X
149 Santa Clara West Coast 53 5 4 > 99% 7% X
150 Holy Cross Patriot League 53 4 3 > 99% 14% X
151 S. Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 53 8 3 > 99% 22% X
152 Sam Houston St. Southland 53 6 4 > 99% 19% X
153 UMass-Lowell America East 53 6 4 X X X
154 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 52 5 2 > 99% 15% X
155 Pacific West Coast 52 6 3 > 99% 6% X
156 Detroit Horizon 52 6 4 > 99% 10% X
157 FIU Conference USA 52 6 4 > 99% 6% X
158 Akron MAC 51 5 4 > 99% 6% X
159 North Florida Atlantic Sun 51 6 4 > 99% 20% X
160 Air Force Mountain West 51 6 3 > 99% 4% X
161 Virginia Tech ACC 51 5 4 > 99% 1% X
162 Memphis American Athletic 51 4 4 > 99% 6% X
163 Charleston Colonial Athletic 50 5 5 > 99% 8% X
164 Radford Big South 50 6 4 > 99% 13% X
165 Middle Tenn. Conference USA 50 5 4 > 99% 5% X
166 Hawaii Big West 50 7 3 > 99% 14% X
167 South Dakota St. Summit 50 6 3 > 99% 20% X
168 Canisius Metro Atlantic 50 4 4 > 99% 18% X
169 Toledo MAC 50 5 4 > 99% 5% X
170 Tulsa American Athletic 49 5 5 > 99% 4% X
171 Texas St. (SM) Sunbelt 49 5 2 > 99% 12% X
172 Sacred Heart Northeast 49 4 4 > 99% 24% X
173 Florida St. ACC 49 4 5 > 99% 1% X
174 Youngstown St. Horizon 49 7 5 50% 8% X
175 Northern Illinois MAC 49 4 3 > 99% 5% X
176 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 49 5 3 > 99% 5% X
177 N.C. Central Mideastern 48 5 5 > 99% 24% X
178 Cornell Ivy League 48 5 4 > 99% 6% X
179 South Florida American Athletic 48 5 4 > 99% 4% X
180 Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 48 6 4 > 99% 11% X
181 North Dakota St. Summit 48 6 5 > 99% 18% X
182 Missouri St. Missouri Valley 48 4 4 > 99% 3% X
183 Lehigh Patriot League 47 3 4 > 99% 9% X
184 New Hampshire America East 47 6 3 > 99% 20% X
185 Jacksonville St. Ohio Valley 47 7 4 > 99% 10% X
186 Auburn SEC 47 3 5 > 99% 1% X
187 Portland St. Big Sky 47 5 3 > 99% 13% X
188 Southern Miss Conference USA 46 5 3 > 99% 3% X
189 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 46 3 5 > 99% 19% X
190 McNeese St. Southland 46 5 3 > 99% 13% X
191 North Texas Conference USA 46 4 4 > 99% 3% X
192 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 46 7 4 > 99% 2% X
193 Washington St. PAC 12 46 4 6 > 99% 1% X
194 Charleston Southern Big South 46 5 3 > 99% 9% X
195 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 45 5 4 > 99% 8% X
196 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 45 6 4 > 99% 1% X
197 Rider Metro Atlantic 45 5 6 > 99% 12% X
198 Norfolk St. Mideastern 45 7 5 > 99% 18% X
199 IPFW Summit 45 6 3 > 99% 15% X
200 St. Francis (PA) Northeast 44 4 4 > 99% 17% X
201 Cleveland St. Horizon 44 5 5 > 99% 5% X
202 San Francisco West Coast 44 5 5 > 99% 2% X
203 Vermont America East 44 5 4 > 99% 18% X
204 Ohio MAC 44 3 3 > 99% 3% X
205 Oral Roberts Summit 43 4 5 > 99% 14% X
206 TX Pan American WAC 43 5 4 > 99% 24% X
207 Mercer Southern 43 5 4 > 99% 10% X
208 UCF American Athletic 43 5 4 > 99% 2% X
209 Elon Colonial Athletic 43 5 5 > 99% 4% X
210 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 43 4 5 > 99% 11% X
211 UCSB Big West 43 3 5 > 99% 8% X
212 Hartford America East 43 6 5 > 99% 14% X
213 Denver Summit 43 4 5 > 99% 14% X
214 Stony Brook America East 43 5 5 > 99% 14% X
215 LA Monroe Sunbelt 43 5 3 > 99% 7% X
216 Fordham Atlantic 10 42 3 5 > 99% 1% X
217 Bucknell Patriot League 42 4 6 > 99% 6% X
218 Sacramento St. Big Sky 42 5 4 > 99% 10% X
219 New Mexico St. WAC 42 4 6 > 99% 21% X
220 UC Riverside Big West 41 5 4 > 99% 7% X
221 Chattanooga Southern 41 5 5 > 99% 9% X
222 Dartmouth Ivy League 41 4 5 > 99% 3% X
223 Fair. Dickinson Northeast 41 3 5 > 99% 13% X
224 E. Carolina American Athletic 41 5 5 > 99% 2% X
225 UC Irvine Big West 41 4 5 > 99% 7% X
226 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 40 4 5 > 99% 9% X
227 Oakland Horizon 40 4 7 > 99% 3% X
228 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 40 3 4 X X X
229 Winthrop Big South 40 4 4 > 99% 6% X
230 Alabama St. Southwestern 40 3 4 X X X
231 CSU Fullerton Big West 39 4 7 > 99% 6% X
232 Drexel Colonial Athletic 39 2 6 > 99% 3% X
233 MD Eastern Shore Mideastern 39 5 7 > 99% 12% X
234 Duquesne Atlantic 10 39 3 4 > 99% < 1% X
235 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 38 5 4 > 99% 5% X
236 Texas-San Antonio Conference USA 38 4 4 > 99% 1% X
237 Idaho Big Sky 38 4 5 > 99% 7% X
238 Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 38 4 6 > 99% 5% X
239 Marshall Conference USA 38 4 6 > 99% 1% X
240 Loyola-MD Patriot League 38 3 6 > 99% 4% X
241 Northern Arizona Big Sky 38 4 6 > 99% 7% X
242 Wis. Milwaukee Horizon 37 5 6 X X X
243 Brown Ivy League 37 5 6 > 99% 1% X
244 Grand Canyon WAC 37 5 6 X X X
245 Montana Big Sky 37 3 6 50% 7% X
246 SE Missouri St. Ohio Valley 37 5 5 > 99% 4% X
247 George Mason Atlantic 10 37 2 6 > 99% < 1% X
248 Boston U. Patriot League 37 3 6 > 99% 3% X
249 VMI Southern 37 5 5 > 99% 5% X
250 North Dakota Big Sky 36 3 6 > 99% 6% X
251 Loyola Marymount West Coast 36 3 5 > 99% 1% X
252 Northern Colorado Big Sky 36 4 4 > 99% 6% X
253 Ball State MAC 36 3 4 > 99% 1% X
254 Hampton Mideastern 36 4 5 > 99% 10% X
255 Delaware St. Mideastern 36 4 6 > 99% 10% X
256 New Jersey Tech Independent 36 4 7 > 99% < 1% X
257 Northern Kentucky Atlantic Sun 36 4 6 X X X
258 Weber St. Big Sky 36 3 5 > 99% 6% X
259 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 36 4 6 > 99% 1% X
260 Cal Poly Big West 36 4 4 > 99% 4% X
261 Siena Metro Atlantic 35 3 5 > 99% 6% X
262 Bryant Northeast 35 2 5 > 99% 9% X
263 UALR Sunbelt 35 4 4 > 99% 3% X
264 Houston Baptist Southland 35 4 4 X X X
265 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 35 4 6 > 99% 6% X
266 UAB Conference USA 35 4 6 > 99% 1% X
267 Utah Valley WAC 35 3 6 > 99% 14% X
268 Montana St. Big Sky 34 3 6 > 99% 5% X
269 Seattle WAC 34 5 5 > 99% 13% X
270 Western Carolina Southern 34 3 7 > 99% 5% X
271 Bradley Missouri Valley 34 3 6 > 99% 1% X
272 Nebraska Omaha Summit 33 4 5 X X X
273 Kennesaw St. Atlantic Sun 33 3 7 > 99% 5% X
274 Furman Southern 33 2 6 > 99% 4% X
275 Howard Mideastern 33 6 6 > 99% 8% X
276 Western Illinois Summit 33 4 5 > 99% 7% X
277 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 32 3 5 > 99% 5% X
278 Robert Morris Northeast 32 2 6 > 99% 6% X
279 Fresno St. Mountain West 32 3 7 > 99% < 1% X
280 St. Peter's Metro Atlantic 32 4 7 > 99% 4% X
281 New Orleans Southland 32 2 4 > 99% 3% X
282 N.C. Greensboro Southern 32 4 7 > 99% 4% X
283 Albany America East 31 3 6 > 99% 6% X
284 Abilene Christian Southland 31 4 4 X X X
285 Texas Southern Southwestern 31 1 8 > 99% 16% X
286 S. Carolina St. Mideastern 31 3 7 > 99% 6% X
287 Princeton Ivy League 31 3 8 > 99% < 1% X
288 N.C. Asheville Big South 30 4 6 > 99% 3% X
289 Campbell Big South 30 3 6 > 99% 3% X
290 Longwood Big South 30 3 7 > 99% 2% X
291 Savannah St. Mideastern 30 2 9 50% 6% X
292 Northwestern St. Southland 30 2 5 > 99% 2% X
293 Lamar Southland 30 3 6 X X X
294 Ill. Chicago Horizon 30 3 8 > 99% 1% X
295 Troy Sunbelt 30 4 4 > 99% 2% X
296 Morehead St. Ohio Valley 29 4 8 > 99% 2% X
297 Nicholls St. Southland 29 2 5 > 99% 2% X
298 SE Louisiana Southland 29 2 8 > 99% 2% X
299 UMKC WAC 28 4 7 > 99% 8% X
300 Drake Missouri Valley 28 2 8 > 99% < 1% X
301 Pennsylvania Ivy League 28 3 5 > 99% < 1% X
302 CSU Northridge Big West 28 3 7 > 99% 2% X
303 St. Francis (NY) Northeast 28 3 6 > 99% 4% X
304 LIU-Brooklyn Northeast 28 2 6 > 99% 4% X
305 Texas A&M C.C. Southland 27 3 5 > 99% 2% X
306 Morgan St. Mideastern 27 2 8 > 99% 4% X
307 Nevada Mountain West 27 2 7 > 99% < 1% X
308 Miami OH MAC 27 2 7 > 99% < 1% X
309 Grambling Southwestern 26 2 6 > 99% 11% X
310 Niagara Metro Atlantic 26 1 6 > 99% 2% X
311 Samford Southern 26 4 8 > 99% 2% X
312 South Alabama Sunbelt 26 2 5 > 99% 1% X
313 Rice Conference USA 26 2 5 > 99% < 1% X
314 Wagner Northeast 25 2 6 > 99% 3% X
315 Idaho St. Big Sky 25 3 5 > 99% 2% X
316 Colgate Patriot League 25 3 8 > 99% 1% X
317 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 25 2 4 > 99% 1% X
318 Citadel Southern 25 4 5 > 99% 2% X
319 South Dakota Summit 24 3 8 > 99% 3% X
320 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 24 3 7 > 99% 1% X
321 Liberty Big South 24 4 5 > 99% 1% X
322 Southern Southwestern 23 3 8 X X X
323 Southern Utah Big Sky 23 2 5 > 99% 1% X
324 IUPUI Summit 23 2 8 > 99% 3% X
325 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 23 2 6 > 99% 1% X
326 Presbyterian Big South 22 4 7 > 99% 1% X
327 San Jose St. Mountain West 21 2 8 X X X
328 Miss. Valley St. Southwestern 21 1 9 > 99% 7% X
329 AR Pine Bluff Southwestern 21 1 7 > 99% 7% X
330 Central Conn. St. Northeast 21 2 7 > 99% 2% X
331 Alabama A&M Southwestern 21 1 6 > 99% 8% X
332 Navy Patriot League 20 2 8 > 99% < 1% X
333 Prairie View A&M Southwestern 20 1 9 > 99% 7% X
334 Stetson Atlantic Sun 19 3 8 50% 1% X
335 Bethune-Cookman Mideastern 18 3 8 > 99% 2% X
336 Chicago St. WAC 18 2 9 > 99% 3% X
337 Maine America East 18 1 8 > 99% 1% X
338 Coppin St. Mideastern 16 0 9 > 99% 1% X
339 Tennessee St. Ohio Valley 16 2 8 > 99% < 1% X
340 SIU Edwardsville Ohio Valley 16 1 6 > 99% < 1% X
341 Alcorn St. Southwestern 15 0 7 50% 4% X
342 Jackson St. Southwestern 15 1 9 > 99% 4% X
343 UMBC America East 15 1 9 > 99% 1% X
344 Delaware Colonial Athletic 13 0 7 > 99% < 1% X
345 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 12 2 9 50% < 1% X
346 Marist Metro Atlantic 10 1 9 > 99% < 1% X
347 N.C. A&T Mideastern 10 1 10 > 99% < 1% X
348 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 8 1 8 > 99% 1% X
349 Florida A&M Mideastern 6 0 9 X X X
350 Binghamton America East 5 1 11 > 99% < 1% X
351 Central Arkansas Southland 4 0 8 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot