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Mon Sep 21 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Bears What If?

The Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bears play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bears What If?

Next Game - Eagles (2‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 1 0 4% 6% 4% 2% 10% 9% 9% 55%
Current Standings 1 1 0 4% 5% 4% 2% 9% 9% 8% 59%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 1% 4% 4% 3% 6% 8% 8% 65%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 5% 7% 4% 3% 9% 9% 9% 54%
Current Standings 4% 5% 4% 2% 9% 9% 8% 59%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 3% 4% 3% 7% 8% 8% 66%
Best Case Scenario
   Buccaneers beats Vikings
   Bears beats Eagles
 Worst Case Scenario
   Vikings beats Buccaneers
   Eagles beats Bears
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 16 1 0 93% 6% <1% X 1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 2 0 67% 23% 1% <1% 9% <1% ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 3 0 32% 38% 7% <1% 22% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 13 4 0 8% 30% 18% 2% 35% 7% 1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 12 5 0 1% 9% 18% 8% 33% 25% 6% <1%
10 of 15 67% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 8% 9% 17% 35% 23% 7%
9 of 15 60% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 6% 4% 21% 34% 34%
8 of 15 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 5% 19% 73%
7 of 15 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
6 of 15 40% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 15 33% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs