The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 9 | 2 | 0 | 19% | 43% | 30% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 8 | 2 | 0 | 11% | 33% | 40% | 15% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 8 | 3 | 0 | <1% | 28% | 51% | 19% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 22% | 42% | 29% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 11% | 33% | 40% | 15% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 28% | 51% | 20% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Ravens beats Steelers Bills beats Chiefs |
Worst Case Scenario Steelers beats Ravens Chiefs beats Bills |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 7 of 7 | 100% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 71% | 29% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 7 | 86% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 63% | 12% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 7 | 71% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 50% | 45% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 17% | 69% | 14% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 7 | 43% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 3% | 56% | 41% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 7 | 29% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 29% | 67% | <1% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| 1 of 7 | 14% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 9% | 69% | <1% | 4% | 12% | 7% |
| 0 of 7 | 0% | 8 | 9 | 0 | X | <1% | 1% | 39% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 48% |