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Thu Oct 2 11:45 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Patriots (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 5 0 0 30% 18% 14% 14% 4% 4% 4% 12%
Current Standings 4 0 0 27% 16% 13% 12% 5% 5% 5% 16%
Lose Next Game 4 1 0 18% 16% 12% 12% 7% 7% 6% 21%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 33% 16% 13% 13% 4% 5% 4% 11%
Current Standings 27% 16% 13% 12% 5% 5% 5% 16%
Worst Case Scenario 17% 15% 13% 13% 8% 7% 6% 22%
Best Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Colts
   Commanders beats Chargers
   Bills beats Patriots
 Worst Case Scenario
   Colts beats Raiders
   Chargers beats Commanders
   Patriots beats Bills
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 16 1 0 96% 4% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 15 2 0 79% 20% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 13 77% 14 3 0 48% 43% 8% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 13 69% 13 4 0 18% 47% 26% 4% 5% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 13 62% 12 5 0 4% 25% 39% 16% 11% 4% <1% <1%
7 of 13 54% 11 6 0 <1% 6% 29% 33% 13% 14% 4% 1%
6 of 13 46% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 11% 35% 8% 20% 18% 8%
5 of 13 38% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 26% 2% 10% 23% 38%
4 of 13 31% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 13% <1% 1% 8% 78%
3 of 13 23% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% <1% 1% 95%
2 of 13 15% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
1 of 13 8% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 13 0% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs