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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Rams (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 1 0 8% 9% 12% 14% 5% 6% 7% 39%
Current Standings 3 1 0 6% 8% 11% 14% 5% 6% 6% 44%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 4% 7% 11% 14% 5% 6% 6% 48%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 8% 10% 13% 13% 5% 6% 7% 39%
Current Standings 6% 8% 11% 14% 5% 6% 6% 44%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 6% 10% 14% 5% 6% 7% 48%
Best Case Scenario
   Eagles beats Jaguars
   Bills beats Rams
 Worst Case Scenario
   Jaguars beats Eagles
   Rams beats Bills
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 16 1 0 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 15 2 0 77% 21% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 14 3 0 39% 42% 15% 2% 2% <1% <1% ^
10 of 13 77% 13 4 0 11% 35% 34% 10% 9% 1% <1% <1%
9 of 13 69% 12 5 0 2% 14% 37% 26% 15% 6% 1% <1%
8 of 13 62% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 22% 36% 13% 17% 8% 2%
7 of 13 54% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 8% 33% 5% 17% 22% 14%
6 of 13 46% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 22% 1% 7% 20% 49%
5 of 13 38% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 9% <1% 1% 6% 84%
4 of 13 31% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 97%
3 of 13 23% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 13 8% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs