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Fri Oct 16 1:45 am

NFL - Week 6 of 18

Commanders What If?

The Commanders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Commanders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Commanders What If?

Next Game - Forty-Niners (5‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 3 1 <1% 1% 6% 6% 2% 4% 7% 74%
Current Standings 1 3 1 <1% 1% 4% 5% 1% 3% 5% 81%
Lose Next Game 1 4 1 <1% <1% 3% 5% 1% 2% 5% 84%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 6% 6% 2% 4% 7% 74%
Current Standings <1% 1% 4% 5% 1% 3% 5% 81%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 3% 5% 1% 2% 5% 84%
Best Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Forty-Niners
 Worst Case Scenario
   Forty-Niners beats Commanders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
12 of 12 100% 13 3 1 29% 52% 17% <1% 2% <1% <1% ^
11 of 12 92% 12 4 1 7% 39% 39% 4% 9% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 12 83% 11 5 1 1% 13% 43% 13% 15% 13% 3% <1%
9 of 12 75% 10 6 1 <1% 1% 24% 21% 8% 23% 17% 5%
8 of 12 67% 9 7 1 <1% <1% 7% 17% 2% 12% 28% 35%
7 of 12 58% 8 8 1 <1% <1% 1% 8% <1% 2% 10% 79%
6 of 12 50% 7 9 1 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
5 of 12 42% 6 10 1 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 12 33% 5 11 1 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
3 of 12 25% 4 12 1 X X X <1% X X X >99%
2 of 12 17% 3 13 1 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 12 8% 2 14 1 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 12 0% 1 15 1 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs