The Commanders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Commanders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 4 | 4 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 77% |
| Current Standings | 3 | 4 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 82% |
| Lose Next Game | 3 | 5 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 87% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 75% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 82% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | <1% | 2% | 3% | 87% |
|
Best Case Scenario Giants beats Eagles Broncos beats Cowboys Commanders beats Chiefs |
Worst Case Scenario Eagles beats Giants Cowboys beats Broncos Chiefs beats Commanders |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 10 of 10 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 19% | 45% | 29% | 6% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 10 | 90% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2% | 18% | 40% | 28% | 8% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 10 | 80% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 2% | 17% | 43% | 8% | 17% | 11% | 3% |
| 7 of 10 | 70% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 29% | 1% | 10% | 22% | 36% |
| 6 of 10 | 60% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 11% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 82% |
| 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 97% |
| 4 of 10 | 40% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 3 of 10 | 30% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | X | <1% | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 of 10 | 20% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 1 of 10 | 10% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 10 | 0% | 3 | 14 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |