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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Seahawks (3‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 5 0 0 31% 18% 11% 7% 7% 7% 6% 14%
Current Standings 4 0 0 27% 15% 9% 5% 9% 8% 7% 20%
Lose Next Game 4 1 0 19% 15% 9% 6% 11% 9% 8% 24%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 34% 16% 10% 6% 7% 6% 5% 15%
Current Standings 27% 15% 9% 5% 9% 8% 7% 20%
Worst Case Scenario 19% 15% 10% 6% 11% 9% 7% 24%
Best Case Scenario
   Saints beats Vikings
   Forty-Niners beats Seahawks
 Worst Case Scenario
   Vikings beats Saints
   Seahawks beats Forty-Niners
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 16 1 0 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 15 2 0 82% 17% <1% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
10 of 13 77% 14 3 0 49% 41% 5% <1% 4% <1% <1% ^
9 of 13 69% 13 4 0 18% 46% 19% 2% 13% 2% <1% <1%
8 of 13 62% 12 5 0 3% 24% 29% 8% 22% 12% 1% <1%
7 of 13 54% 11 6 0 <1% 5% 19% 16% 18% 28% 12% 2%
6 of 13 46% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 15% 5% 22% 30% 22%
5 of 13 38% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 7% <1% 5% 19% 67%
4 of 13 31% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 3% 95%
3 of 13 23% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 13 8% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
0 of 13 0% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs