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Mon Nov 18 12:00 am

NFL - Week 11 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Packers (7‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 5 0 <1% 1% 6% 3% <1% 3% 8% 79%
Current Standings 5 5 0 <1% <1% 3% 2% <1% 1% 4% 89%
Lose Next Game 5 6 0 <1% <1% 2% 2% <1% <1% 2% 94%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 7% 4% <1% 3% 8% 76%
Current Standings <1% <1% 3% 2% <1% 1% 4% 89%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 1% <1% <1% 2% 95%
Best Case Scenario
   Cowboys beats Commanders
   Forty-Niners beats Packers
   Seahawks beats Cardinals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Cowboys
   Packers beats Forty-Niners
   Cardinals beats Seahawks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
7 of 7 100% 12 5 0 1% 21% 66% 3% 4% 4% 1% <1%
6 of 7 86% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 43% 11% 3% 16% 18% 6%
5 of 7 71% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 10% 10% <1% 7% 26% 48%
4 of 7 57% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 2% <1% <1% 5% 91%
3 of 7 43% 8 9 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 7 29% 7 10 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 7 14% 6 11 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 7 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs