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Tue Sep 30 12:30 am

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Bills (4‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 2 0 3% 7% 9% 11% 8% 8% 7% 46%
Current Standings 2 2 0 2% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 54%
Lose Next Game 2 3 0 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 58%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 45%
Current Standings 2% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 54%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 3% 6% 6% 8% 9% 8% 59%
Best Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Colts
   Commanders beats Chargers
   Patriots beats Bills
 Worst Case Scenario
   Colts beats Raiders
   Chargers beats Commanders
   Bills beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 15 2 0 66% 31% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 14 3 0 32% 46% 14% 1% 7% <1% ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 13 4 0 9% 34% 29% 5% 20% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 13 77% 12 5 0 1% 14% 30% 17% 27% 11% 1% <1%
9 of 13 69% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 17% 22% 22% 26% 8% 1%
8 of 13 62% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 5% 20% 8% 27% 26% 13%
7 of 13 54% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 11% 2% 11% 27% 49%
6 of 13 46% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% 1% 8% 87%
5 of 13 38% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
4 of 13 31% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 13 23% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X X >99%
1 of 13 8% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs