The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 50% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 54% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 58% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 7% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 48% |
| Current Standings | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 54% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 2% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 59% |
|
Best Case Scenario Chargers beats Bills Patriots beats Jaguars Rams beats Broncos |
Worst Case Scenario Bills beats Chargers Jaguars beats Patriots Broncos beats Rams |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 15 of 15 | 100% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 97% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 15 | 93% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 82% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 15 | 87% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 48% | 39% | 7% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 of 15 | 80% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 18% | 40% | 22% | 2% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 21% | 31% | 7% | 28% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 10 of 15 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 5% | 22% | 14% | 24% | 25% | 8% | 1% |
| 9 of 15 | 60% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 9% | 15% | 10% | 28% | 25% | 12% |
| 8 of 15 | 53% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 13% | 28% | 45% |
| 7 of 15 | 47% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 83% |
| 6 of 15 | 40% | 7 | 10 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
| 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 4 of 15 | 27% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 3 of 15 | 20% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 2 of 15 | 13% | 3 | 14 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 1 of 15 | 7% | 2 | 15 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 15 | 0% | 1 | 16 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |