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Tue Sep 30 12:30 am

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Chargers What If?

The Chargers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chargers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chargers What If?

Next Game - Commanders (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 1 0 15% 14% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 27%
Current Standings 3 1 0 14% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 31%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 35%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 17% 13% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 27%
Current Standings 14% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 31%
Worst Case Scenario 9% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 35%
Best Case Scenario
   Chargers beats Commanders
   Patriots beats Bills
 Worst Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Chargers
   Bills beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 16 1 0 97% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 15 2 0 84% 15% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 14 3 0 56% 37% 6% <1% 1% <1% <1% ^
10 of 13 77% 13 4 0 24% 45% 22% 3% 6% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 13 69% 12 5 0 5% 25% 35% 13% 18% 3% <1% <1%
8 of 13 62% 11 6 0 1% 7% 25% 24% 25% 15% 3% <1%
7 of 13 54% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 9% 24% 16% 28% 18% 5%
6 of 13 46% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 16% 3% 16% 29% 34%
5 of 13 38% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 7% <1% 3% 14% 76%
4 of 13 31% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 2% 96%
3 of 13 23% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 13 8% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs