The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (13‑2) vs Wake Forest (10‑6) |
44 | North Carolina Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Georgia Tech (10‑6) vs Miami (13‑2) |
3 | Georgia Tech Wins | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Miami Wins | 6% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Boston College (7‑8) vs Louisville (11‑4) |
2 | Boston College Wins | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Louisville Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Duke (14‑1) vs SMU (12‑3) |
2 | Duke Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| SMU Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Florida St. (7‑8) vs N.C. State (11‑5) |
2 | Florida St. Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| N.C. State Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Notre Dame (10‑5) vs Clemson (13‑3) |
2 | Notre Dame Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Clemson Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Virginia Tech (12‑4) vs California (13‑3) |
2 | Virginia Tech Wins | 7% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| California Wins | 6% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Pittsburgh (7‑8) vs Syracuse (10‑5) |
1 | Pittsburgh Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Virginia (13‑2) vs Stanford (13‑3) |
1 | Virginia Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Stanford Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||