The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (10‑1) vs Florida St. (5‑6) |
36 | North Carolina Wins | 13% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Pittsburgh (5‑6) vs Miami (10‑2) |
4 | Pittsburgh Wins | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Miami Wins | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Georgia Tech (7‑4) vs Duke (11‑0) |
2 | Georgia Tech Wins | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Duke Wins | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Virginia (9‑1) vs Virginia Tech (10‑2) |
1 | Virginia Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| N.C. State (7‑4) vs Wake Forest (8‑3) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Stanford (8‑2) vs Notre Dame (9‑3) |
1 | Stanford Wins | 13% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Notre Dame Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Clemson (9‑3) vs Syracuse (6‑4) |
1 | Clemson Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Louisville (9‑2) vs California (10‑1) |
0 | Louisville Wins | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| California Wins | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||