The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (11‑6) vs California (8‑8) |
32 | North Carolina Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| California Wins | 2% | 5% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Tech (8‑9) vs Clemson (13‑4) |
5 | Georgia Tech Wins | 5% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Clemson Wins | 4% | 8% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Syracuse (8‑8) vs Louisville (12‑5) |
4 | Syracuse Wins | 6% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Louisville Wins | 4% | 8% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Florida St. (11‑5) vs Pittsburgh (12‑4) |
3 | Florida St. Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | 5% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Stanford (11‑5) vs Wake Forest (12‑4) |
3 | Stanford Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | 4% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Duke (14‑2) vs Miami (4‑12) |
2 | Duke Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Miami Wins | 6% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Virginia (8‑8) vs SMU (12‑4) |
2 | Virginia Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| SMU Wins | 5% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| N.C. State (9‑7) vs Virginia Tech (7‑9) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | 5% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | 5% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||