The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (16‑11) vs Virginia (13‑13) |
5 | North Carolina Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 18% | 58% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Virginia Wins | X | X | X | <1% | 5% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| N.C. State (10‑16) vs Wake Forest (19‑7) |
5 | N.C. State Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 51% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14% | 54% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Clemson (21‑5) vs SMU (20‑6) |
2 | Clemson Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 20% | 48% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| SMU Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 60% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Louisville (20‑6) vs Florida St. (16‑10) |
1 | Louisville Wins | X | X | <1% | 1% | 14% | 54% | 21% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Florida St. Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Notre Dame (11‑15) vs Pittsburgh (16‑10) |
0 | Notre Dame Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 55% | 21% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 52% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| California (12‑14) vs Stanford (16‑10) |
0 | California Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 16% | 62% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Stanford Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14% | 50% | 23% | 9% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Miami (6‑20) vs Virginia Tech (11‑15) |
0 | Miami Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Georgia Tech (13‑13) vs Boston College (11‑15) |
0 | Georgia Tech Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 53% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 54% | 20% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||