The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (20‑6) vs Syracuse (15‑12) |
36 | North Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | 4% | 10% | 16% | 21% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Syracuse Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Florida St. (13‑13) vs Clemson (20‑7) |
6 | Florida St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Clemson Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Georgia Tech (11‑15) vs Virginia (22‑3) |
5 | Georgia Tech Wins | <1% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Virginia Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Wake Forest (14‑12) vs Virginia Tech (17‑10) |
4 | Wake Forest Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Boston College (9‑17) vs SMU (18‑8) |
3 | Boston College Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 8% | 14% | 24% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| SMU Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Pittsburgh (9‑17) vs Notre Dame (12‑14) |
0 | Pittsburgh Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Notre Dame Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 14% | 19% | 19% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| California (18‑8) vs Stanford (16‑10) |
0 | California Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Stanford Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||