The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| North Carolina (2‑0) vs California (2‑0) |
30 | North Carolina Wins | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| California Wins | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 16% | ||
| Notre Dame (2‑0) vs Stanford (2‑0) |
1 | Notre Dame Wins | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Stanford Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Virginia Tech (2‑0) vs Louisville (1‑0) |
1 | Virginia Tech Wins | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Louisville Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 15% | ||
| Florida St. (2‑0) vs Syracuse (2‑0) |
1 | Florida St. Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| N.C. State (2‑0) vs Miami (1‑1) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Miami Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Georgia Tech (2‑0) vs Duke (2‑0) |
0 | Georgia Tech Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Duke Wins | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 14% | ||
| Virginia (2‑0) vs Clemson (2‑0) |
0 | Virginia Wins | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||
| Clemson Wins | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 14% | ||