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Sun Nov 1 5:45 am

NHL - Week 5 of 28

Capitals What If?

The Capitals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Capitals play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Capitals What If?

Next Game - Wild (9‑3‑3)

  Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 9 4 0 18 25% 20% 15% - - - 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings 8 4 0 16 24% 19% 15% - - - 5% 5% 32%
Lose Next Game 8 5 0 16 23% 19% 15% - - - 4% 5% 33%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 25% 20% 15% - - - 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings 24% 19% 15% - - - 5% 5% 32%
Worst Case Scenario 23% 19% 15% - - - 4% 5% 33%
Best Case Scenario
   Capitals beats Wild
 Worst Case Scenario
   Wild beats Capitals
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
72 of 72 100% 80 4 0 160 100% ^ ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 72 97% 78 6 0 156 >99% <1% ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
60 of 72 83% 68 16 0 136 97% 3% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
58 of 72 81% 66 18 0 132 94% 6% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
57 of 72 79% 65 19 0 130 92% 8% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
56 of 72 78% 64 20 0 128 88% 12% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
55 of 72 76% 63 21 0 126 84% 15% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
54 of 72 75% 62 22 0 124 79% 20% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
53 of 72 74% 61 23 0 122 74% 25% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
52 of 72 72% 60 24 0 120 68% 30% 2% - - - <1% <1% <1%
51 of 72 71% 59 25 0 118 61% 35% 4% - - - <1% <1% <1%
50 of 72 69% 58 26 0 116 55% 39% 6% - - - <1% <1% <1%
49 of 72 68% 57 27 0 114 47% 44% 9% - - - 1% <1% <1%
48 of 72 67% 56 28 0 112 41% 45% 13% - - - 1% <1% <1%
47 of 72 65% 55 29 0 110 33% 49% 17% - - - 2% <1% <1%
46 of 72 64% 54 30 0 108 27% 48% 22% - - - 3% <1% <1%
45 of 72 63% 53 31 0 106 21% 46% 27% - - - 5% <1% <1%
44 of 72 61% 52 32 0 104 17% 43% 31% - - - 7% 1% <1%
43 of 72 60% 51 33 0 102 12% 39% 36% - - - 10% 2% <1%
42 of 72 58% 50 34 0 100 9% 34% 38% - - - 14% 4% 1%
41 of 72 57% 49 35 0 98 6% 29% 39% - - - 16% 7% 2%
40 of 72 56% 48 36 0 96 4% 24% 39% - - - 18% 11% 4%
39 of 72 54% 47 37 0 94 3% 18% 38% - - - 17% 15% 9%
38 of 72 53% 46 38 0 92 2% 14% 36% - - - 16% 18% 15%
37 of 72 51% 45 39 0 90 1% 11% 30% - - - 13% 21% 25%
36 of 72 50% 44 40 0 88 1% 7% 25% - - - 9% 21% 37%
35 of 72 49% 43 41 0 86 <1% 5% 20% - - - 6% 18% 51%
34 of 72 47% 42 42 0 84 <1% 3% 16% - - - 3% 14% 64%
33 of 72 46% 41 43 0 82 <1% 2% 12% - - - 2% 10% 74%
32 of 72 44% 40 44 0 80 <1% 1% 9% - - - 1% 6% 84%
31 of 72 43% 39 45 0 78 <1% 1% 6% - - - <1% 3% 91%
30 of 72 42% 38 46 0 76 <1% <1% 4% - - - <1% 1% 95%
20 of 72 28% 28 56 0 56 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 72 14% 18 66 0 36 X <1% <1% - - - X X >99%
0 of 72 0% 8 76 0 16 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs