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Wed Oct 14 3:00 am

NHL - Week 3 of 28

Capitals What If?

The Capitals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Capitals play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Capitals What If?

Next Game - Canadiens (3‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 4 3 0 8 13% 15% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%
Current Standings 3 3 0 6 13% 15% 13% - - - 6% 6% 47%
Lose Next Game 3 4 0 6 12% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 47%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 13% 15% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%
Current Standings 13% 15% 13% - - - 6% 6% 47%
Worst Case Scenario 12% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 47%
Best Case Scenario
   Capitals beats Canadiens
 Worst Case Scenario
   Canadiens beats Capitals
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
78 of 78 100% 81 3 0 162 100% ^ ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 78 90% 73 11 0 146 99% 1% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
67 of 78 86% 70 14 0 140 95% 5% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
66 of 78 85% 69 15 0 138 93% 7% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
65 of 78 83% 68 16 0 136 89% 11% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
64 of 78 82% 67 17 0 134 84% 16% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
63 of 78 81% 66 18 0 132 79% 20% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
62 of 78 79% 65 19 0 130 73% 25% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
61 of 78 78% 64 20 0 128 67% 30% 3% - - - <1% <1% <1%
60 of 78 77% 63 21 0 126 59% 36% 5% - - - <1% <1% <1%
59 of 78 76% 62 22 0 124 52% 39% 8% - - - 1% <1% <1%
58 of 78 74% 61 23 0 122 46% 42% 11% - - - 1% <1% <1%
57 of 78 73% 60 24 0 120 39% 45% 14% - - - 2% <1% <1%
56 of 78 72% 59 25 0 118 32% 46% 19% - - - 3% <1% <1%
55 of 78 71% 58 26 0 116 26% 46% 23% - - - 5% <1% <1%
54 of 78 69% 57 27 0 114 22% 44% 27% - - - 6% 1% <1%
53 of 78 68% 56 28 0 112 17% 41% 31% - - - 9% 1% <1%
52 of 78 67% 55 29 0 110 15% 39% 34% - - - 11% 2% <1%
51 of 78 65% 54 30 0 108 12% 35% 36% - - - 14% 3% <1%
50 of 78 64% 53 31 0 106 9% 31% 37% - - - 18% 5% 1%
49 of 78 63% 52 32 0 104 7% 28% 38% - - - 19% 7% 1%
48 of 78 62% 51 33 0 102 5% 25% 38% - - - 22% 9% 2%
47 of 78 60% 50 34 0 100 4% 20% 38% - - - 22% 13% 4%
46 of 78 59% 49 35 0 98 3% 18% 36% - - - 23% 15% 6%
45 of 78 58% 48 36 0 96 2% 15% 32% - - - 22% 19% 10%
44 of 78 56% 47 37 0 94 2% 12% 30% - - - 22% 21% 13%
43 of 78 55% 46 38 0 92 1% 10% 28% - - - 19% 23% 19%
42 of 78 54% 45 39 0 90 1% 8% 25% - - - 17% 24% 25%
41 of 78 53% 44 40 0 88 <1% 6% 23% - - - 14% 25% 32%
40 of 78 51% 43 41 0 86 <1% 5% 20% - - - 11% 24% 40%
39 of 78 50% 42 42 0 84 <1% 3% 17% - - - 9% 21% 49%
38 of 78 49% 41 43 0 82 <1% 3% 13% - - - 7% 20% 57%
37 of 78 47% 40 44 0 80 <1% 2% 12% - - - 5% 17% 65%
36 of 78 46% 39 45 0 78 <1% 1% 9% - - - 3% 13% 73%
35 of 78 45% 38 46 0 76 <1% 1% 7% - - - 2% 10% 80%
34 of 78 44% 37 47 0 74 <1% 1% 6% - - - 1% 8% 85%
33 of 78 42% 36 48 0 72 <1% <1% 4% - - - 1% 5% 90%
32 of 78 41% 35 49 0 70 <1% <1% 3% - - - <1% 3% 93%
30 of 78 38% 33 51 0 66 <1% <1% 2% - - - <1% 1% 97%
20 of 78 26% 23 61 0 46 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 78 13% 13 71 0 26 X X <1% - - - X X >99%
0 of 78 0% 3 81 0 6 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs