The Most Important Games for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fighting Irish final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Notre Dame Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Notre Dame (4‑0) vs Syracuse (3‑1) |
28 | Notre Dame Wins | 13% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Georgia Tech (2‑2) vs North Carolina (2‑1) |
2 | Georgia Tech Wins | 13% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| North Carolina Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Wake Forest (5‑1) vs Boston College (3‑1) |
2 | Wake Forest Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Boston College Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| N.C. State (4‑0) vs Florida St. (4‑1) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Florida St. Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Louisville (2‑1) vs Duke (3‑1) |
1 | Louisville Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Duke Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||
| Clemson (4‑1) vs Miami (3‑1) |
1 | Clemson Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Miami Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||
| Virginia Tech (3‑2) vs Pittsburgh (5‑0) |
1 | Virginia Tech Wins | 13% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||
| California (4‑1) vs Stanford (5‑0) |
1 | California Wins | 13% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Stanford Wins | 13% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||
| Virginia (3‑1) vs SMU (4‑1) |
0 | Virginia Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ||
| SMU Wins | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||