The Lightning What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Lightning play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Metropolitan Divisional Winners | Atlantic Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | OTLi Overtime Loses |
Pts | 1* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
2* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
3 | 1* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
2* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| Win Next Game | 11 | 6 | 1 | 23 | - | - | - | 29% | 21% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 26% |
| Current Standings | 10 | 6 | 1 | 21 | - | - | - | 28% | 20% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 28% |
| Lose Next Game | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | - | - | - | 26% | 21% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 29% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Metropolitan Divisional Winners | Atlantic Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | OTL | Pts | 1* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
2* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
3 | 1* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
2* First Round Home Ice Advantage |
3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | ||
| 65 of 65 | 100% | 75 | 6 | 1 | 151 | - | - | - | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 60 of 65 | 92% | 70 | 11 | 1 | 141 | - | - | - | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 50 of 65 | 77% | 60 | 21 | 1 | 121 | - | - | - | 95% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 49 of 65 | 75% | 59 | 22 | 1 | 119 | - | - | - | 92% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 48 of 65 | 74% | 58 | 23 | 1 | 117 | - | - | - | 88% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 47 of 65 | 72% | 57 | 24 | 1 | 115 | - | - | - | 83% | 16% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 46 of 65 | 71% | 56 | 25 | 1 | 113 | - | - | - | 77% | 21% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 45 of 65 | 69% | 55 | 26 | 1 | 111 | - | - | - | 70% | 28% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 44 of 65 | 68% | 54 | 27 | 1 | 109 | - | - | - | 62% | 34% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 43 of 65 | 66% | 53 | 28 | 1 | 107 | - | - | - | 54% | 40% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 42 of 65 | 65% | 52 | 29 | 1 | 105 | - | - | - | 47% | 43% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 41 of 65 | 63% | 51 | 30 | 1 | 103 | - | - | - | 38% | 47% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 40 of 65 | 62% | 50 | 31 | 1 | 101 | - | - | - | 31% | 47% | 19% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 39 of 65 | 60% | 49 | 32 | 1 | 99 | - | - | - | 22% | 47% | 26% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 38 of 65 | 58% | 48 | 33 | 1 | 97 | - | - | - | 17% | 44% | 31% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 37 of 65 | 57% | 47 | 34 | 1 | 95 | - | - | - | 11% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 36 of 65 | 55% | 46 | 35 | 1 | 93 | - | - | - | 8% | 32% | 39% | 13% | 7% | 2% |
| 35 of 65 | 54% | 45 | 36 | 1 | 91 | - | - | - | 5% | 25% | 40% | 14% | 11% | 5% |
| 34 of 65 | 52% | 44 | 37 | 1 | 89 | - | - | - | 3% | 19% | 37% | 13% | 16% | 12% |
| 33 of 65 | 51% | 43 | 38 | 1 | 87 | - | - | - | 1% | 13% | 33% | 11% | 20% | 22% |
| 32 of 65 | 49% | 42 | 39 | 1 | 85 | - | - | - | 1% | 8% | 28% | 7% | 20% | 37% |
| 31 of 65 | 48% | 41 | 40 | 1 | 83 | - | - | - | <1% | 5% | 21% | 4% | 16% | 54% |
| 30 of 65 | 46% | 40 | 41 | 1 | 81 | - | - | - | <1% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 12% | 68% |
| 29 of 65 | 45% | 39 | 42 | 1 | 79 | - | - | - | <1% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 7% | 81% |
| 28 of 65 | 43% | 38 | 43 | 1 | 77 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% | 6% | <1% | 3% | 90% |
| 27 of 65 | 42% | 37 | 44 | 1 | 75 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 95% |
| 20 of 65 | 31% | 30 | 51 | 1 | 61 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 10 of 65 | 15% | 20 | 61 | 1 | 41 | - | - | - | X | <1% | <1% | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 65 | 0% | 10 | 71 | 1 | 21 | - | - | - | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |