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Fri Oct 31 1:00 pm

NCAA Hockey - Week 5 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf Record WPi
Win Percentage
 NPIi
NCAA Power Index
 NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Ptsi
Pts = 2*W + 1*T + 0*L
 Win Out Minus CFi
Win Out Except for Conference Tournament Final Game
 Current Lose Out
1 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 0 3 1 1 13 .7964 X X X
2 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 3 2 0 6 60 .7470 X X X
3 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 3 2 1 7 58 .7313 X X X
4 Michigan Big 10Big 10 7 1 0 14 88 .6743 X X X
5 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 1 5 0 2 17 .5849 X X X
6 Union ECACECAC 4 0 1 9 90 .5784 X X X
7 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 4 2 0 8 67 .5700 X X X
8 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 3 1 2 8 67 .5570 X X X
9 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 4 2 0 8 67 .5438 X X X
10 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 4 0 2 10 83 .5313 X X X
11 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 2 2 0 4 50 .5270 X X X
12 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 5 2 1 11 69 .5235 X X X
13 Ferris State CCHACCHA 1 5 0 2 17 .5136 X X X
14 Augustana CCHACCHA 3 3 0 6 50 .5131 X X X
15 Denver NCHCNCHC 3 2 1 7 58 .5131 X X X
Cutline - Click Here to View 31 Line Movers
16 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 7 1 0 14 88 .5109 X X X
17 Brown ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
18 Cornell ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
19 Dartmouth ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
20 Harvard ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
21 Princeton ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
22 Yale ECACECAC 0 0 0 0 50 .5000 X X X
23 Army AtlanticAtlantic 3 2 1 7 58 .4873 X X X
24 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 3 1 0 6 75 .4869 X X X
25 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 4 2 0 8 67 .4825 X X X
26 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 2 5 0 4 29 .4753 X X X
27 Clarkson ECACECAC 2 4 0 4 33 .4745 X X X
28 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 2 3 0 4 40 .4722 X X X
29 Merrimack EastEast 3 2 0 6 60 .4606 X X X
30 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 4 2 0 8 67 .4563 X X X
31 Penn State Big 10Big 10 7 1 0 14 88 .4498 X X X
32 Vermont EastEast 2 2 0 4 50 .4486 X X X
33 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 5 4 0 10 56 .4479 X X X
34 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 2 4 1 5 36 .4375 X X X
35 Providence EastEast 2 2 1 5 50 .4312 X X X
36 Colgate ECACECAC 2 3 1 5 42 .4296 X X X
37 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 5 0 4 29 .4222 X X X
38 Arizona St. NCHCNCHC 2 4 0 4 33 .4219 X X X
39 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 6 0 4 25 .4194 X X X
40 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 5 1 0 10 83 .4154 X X X
41 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 3 3 0 6 50 .4135 X X X
42 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 3 3 0 6 50 .4054 X X X
43 Boston College EastEast 2 2 1 5 50 .3947 X X X
44 Miami NCHCNCHC 6 0 0 12 100 .3942 X X X
45 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 3 2 0 6 60 .3941 X X X
46 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 5 2 0 10 71 .3926 X X X
47 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 2 5 1 5 31 .3898 X X X
48 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 3 2 0 6 60 .3873 X X X
49 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 5 1 0 10 83 .3858 X X X
50 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 2 2 0 4 50 .3820 X X X
51 Boston University EastEast 3 3 1 7 50 .3788 X X X
52 Maine EastEast 3 2 1 7 58 .3725 X X X
53 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 5 2 0 10 71 .3694 X X X
54 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 3 5 0 6 38 .3636 X X X
55 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 4 4 0 8 50 .3592 X X X
56 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 1 4 1 3 25 .3585 X X X
57 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 2 4 0 4 33 .3316 X X X
58 New Hampshire EastEast 2 3 0 4 40 .3026 X X X
59 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 1 6 0 2 14 .2655 X X X
60 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 0 8 0 0 0 .2411 X X X
61 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 0 7 0 0 0 .2376 X X X
62 Rensselaer ECACECAC 0 6 0 0 0 .2210 X X X
63 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 0 4 0 0 0 .1794 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot