PlayoffStatus.com↓≡

Home ► NCAA Hockey ► NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Thu Jan 16 4:30 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 16 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 63 18 2 2 38 100% >99% 3%
2 Boston College EastEast 62 14 4 1 29 100% >99% X
3 Maine EastEast 61 15 4 2 32 100% 99% X
4 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 60 18 4 2 38 100% >99% <1%
5 Providence EastEast 59 15 3 2 32 100% 99% X
6 Denver NCHCNCHC 58 17 5 0 34 100% 94% X
7 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 57 13 4 1 27 100% 92% X
8 Boston University EastEast 56 11 7 1 23 100% 72% X
9 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 54 15 6 1 31 100% 86% X
10 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 54 12 6 2 26 100% 75% X
11 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 53 11 8 1 23 100% 53% X
12 Michigan Big 10Big 10 52 13 8 1 27 100% 72% X
13 New Hampshire EastEast 51 10 6 3 23 100% 45% X
14 Arizona St. NCHCNCHC 50 11 8 1 23 100% 37% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 13 Line Movers
15 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 48 13 7 1 27 100% 46% X
16 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 48 15 5 2 32 >99% 62% X
17 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 46 11 9 0 22 100% 29% X
18 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 46 10 9 2 22 100% 13% X
19 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 45 9 12 1 19 100% 9% X
20 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 45 12 8 1 25 100% 25% X
21 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 43 12 7 1 25 98% 8% X
22 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 42 7 10 3 17 100% 10% X
23 Dartmouth ECACECAC 41 8 6 2 18 98% 16% X
24 Clarkson ECACECAC 40 12 6 2 26 99% 25% X
25 Merrimack EastEast 39 8 11 1 17 100% 3% X
26 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 38 12 8 2 26 63% 29% X
27 Vermont EastEast 37 8 10 3 19 100% 3% X
28 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 35 12 9 1 25 48% 2% X
29 Cornell ECACECAC 35 6 5 4 16 >99% 15% X
30 Colgate ECACECAC 35 10 8 2 22 95% 15% X
31 Penn State Big 10Big 10 33 8 10 2 18 100% 4% X
32 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 32 12 8 2 26 47% 18% X
33 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 30 8 11 1 17 >99% 2% X
34 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 30 10 9 1 21 100% 8% X
35 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 30 7 9 4 18 46% <1% X
36 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 28 12 8 4 28 6% 20% X
37 Union ECACECAC 27 12 8 1 25 61% 9% X
38 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 26 11 7 3 25 16% 15% X
39 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 26 7 14 1 15 98% <1% X
40 Princeton ECACECAC 24 6 8 1 13 92% 4% X
41 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 23 8 10 4 20 11% 10% X
42 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 22 10 10 0 20 >99% 5% X
43 Harvard ECACECAC 22 5 8 2 12 76% 3% X
44 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 20 9 11 2 20 <1% 13% X
45 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 19 9 12 1 19 <1% 5% X
46 Rensselaer ECACECAC 18 9 10 2 20 13% 2% X
47 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 17 8 10 4 20 1% 6% X
48 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 16 11 12 1 23 X 12% X
49 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 15 11 9 3 25 X 15% X
50 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 14 8 10 3 19 X 5% X
51 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 13 7 13 1 15 X 5% X
52 Yale ECACECAC 12 4 10 1 9 9% 1% X
53 Brown ECACECAC 11 4 9 2 10 10% 1% X
54 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 9 5 17 3 13 X X X
55 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 9 5 16 1 11 X X X
56 Ferris State CCHACCHA 8 6 14 2 14 X 1% X
57 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 6 7 11 2 16 X 1% X
58 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 6 6 13 1 13 X <1% X
59 Army AtlanticAtlantic 5 7 15 0 14 X <1% X
60 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 7 19 0 14 X X X
61 Miami NCHCNCHC 4 3 15 2 8 <1% <1% X
62 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 2 4 17 1 9 X <1% X
63 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 1 2 19 1 5 X <1% X
64 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 0 2 19 3 7 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot