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Tue Jan 14 8:30 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 16 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Where will your team be seeded in the NCAA Tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities table present the probability that a team obtains different seedings. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf Record NCAA Tournament Seedings
W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NT
1 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 18 2 2 38 44% 25% 13% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 Boston College EastEast 13 4 1 27 29% 28% 16% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 18 4 2 38 9% 14% 18% 17% 13% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 Maine EastEast 15 4 2 32 7% 12% 16% 15% 14% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
5 Providence EastEast 15 3 2 32 8% 11% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6 Denver NCHCNCHC 17 5 0 34 1% 4% 8% 10% 12% 12% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% <1% <1% 5%
7 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 13 4 1 27 <1% 3% 8% 10% 12% 12% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% <1% <1% 7%
8 Boston University EastEast 11 7 1 23 <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 3% 1% <1% 29%
9 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 15 6 1 31 1% 2% 4% 5% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2% 1% <1% 13%
10 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 12 8 1 25 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 4% 1% <1% 41%
11 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 12 6 2 26 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 10% 9% 9% 7% 6% 3% 1% <1% 25%
12 Michigan Big 10Big 10 13 8 1 27 <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 4% 1% <1% 27%
13 Arizona St. NCHCNCHC 11 8 1 23 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 4% 1% <1% 62%
14 New Hampshire EastEast 10 6 3 23 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 3% 1% <1% 55%
Cutline - Click Here to View 13 Line Movers
15 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 13 7 1 27 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 3% <1% 54%
16 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 15 5 2 32 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 5% 1% 37%
17 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 11 9 0 22 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 1% <1% 71%
18 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 9 12 1 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% <1% <1% 90%
19 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 12 8 1 25 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4% 2% <1% 74%
20 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 10 10 2 22 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 94%
21 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 12 8 1 25 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 96%
22 Clarkson ECACECAC 12 6 2 26 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 6% 1% 75%
23 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 7 10 4 18 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% <1% <1% 93%
24 Dartmouth ECACECAC 8 6 2 18 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 4% 1% 84%
25 Merrimack EastEast 8 11 1 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 97%
26 Penn State Big 10Big 10 9 10 2 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 95%
27 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 12 9 1 25 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
28 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 12 8 2 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 10% 11% 71%
29 Cornell ECACECAC 6 5 4 16 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 3% 1% 85%
30 Vermont EastEast 8 10 3 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 97%
31 Colgate ECACECAC 10 8 2 22 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 2% 85%
32 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 12 8 2 26 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 9% 5% 82%
33 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 8 11 1 17 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 98%
34 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 10 9 1 21 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% <1% 92%
35 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 7 9 4 18 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
36 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 12 8 4 28 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 10% 81%
37 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 11 7 3 25 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 5% 86%
38 Union ECACECAC 12 8 1 25 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 2% 92%
39 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 7 14 1 15 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 Princeton ECACECAC 6 8 1 13 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 96%
41 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 8 10 4 20 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 4% 90%
42 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 10 10 0 20 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 95%
43 Harvard ECACECAC 5 7 2 12 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 97%
44 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 12 12 1 25 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 85%
45 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 9 12 1 19 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 3% 95%
46 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 9 10 4 22 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 3% 93%
47 Rensselaer ECACECAC 9 10 2 20 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 98%
48 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 9 12 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 89%
49 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 11 9 3 25 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 85%
50 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 8 10 3 19 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 95%
51 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 7 13 1 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 4% 95%
52 Yale ECACECAC 4 10 1 9 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
53 Brown ECACECAC 4 9 2 10 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
54 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 17 4 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 16 1 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Ferris State CCHACCHA 6 14 2 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
57 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 7 11 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
58 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 6 13 1 13 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
59 Army AtlanticAtlantic 7 16 0 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
60 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 7 19 0 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
61 Miami NCHCNCHC 3 15 2 8 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
62 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 4 17 1 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
63 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 2 19 1 5 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
64 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 2 19 3 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot