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NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Indiana Big 10Big 10 110 13 0 - - 100%
2 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 109 12 1 - - 100%
3 Georgia SECSEC 107 12 1 - - 100%
4 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 106 12 1 - - 100%
5 Oregon Big 10Big 10 104 11 1 - - 100%
6 Ole Miss SECSEC 103 11 1 - - 100%
7 Texas A&M SECSEC 101 11 1 - - 100%
8 Oklahoma SECSEC 100 10 2 - - 100%
9 Alabama SECSEC 98 10 3 - - 100%
10 Miami ACCACC 97 10 2 - - 100%
11 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 95 10 2 - - X
 
12 BYU Big 12Big 12 94 11 2 - - X
13 Texas SECSEC 92 9 3 - - X
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 91 10 2 - - X
15 Utah Big 12Big 12 89 10 2 - - X
16 USC Big 10Big 10 88 9 3 - - X
17 Arizona Big 12Big 12 86 9 3 - - X
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 85 9 3 - - X
19 Virginia ACCACC 83 10 3 - - X
20 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 82 11 2 - - 100%
21 Houston Big 12Big 12 80 9 3 - - X
22 Georgia Tech ACCACC 79 9 3 - - X
23 Iowa Big 10Big 10 77 8 4 - - X
24 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 76 12 1 - - 100%
25 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 11 2 - - X
26 Illinois Big 10Big 10 74 8 4 - - X
27 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 9 2 - - X
28 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 9 3 - - X
29 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 73 8 4 - - X
30 Duke ACCACC 71 8 5 - - X
31 TCU Big 12Big 12 71 8 4 - - X
32 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 70 8 4 - - X
33 Washington Big 10Big 10 69 8 4 - - X
34 LSU SECSEC 68 7 5 - - X
35 Tennessee SECSEC 67 8 4 - - X
36 N.C. State ACCACC 67 7 5 - - X
37 Pittsburgh ACCACC 66 8 4 - - X
38 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 66 9 4 - - X
39 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 65 10 3 - - X
40 Louisville ACCACC 65 8 4 - - X
41 SMU ACCACC 65 8 4 - - X
42 Missouri SECSEC 65 8 4 - - X
43 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 65 9 3 - - X
44 Wake Forest ACCACC 64 8 4 - - X
45 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 8 4 - - X
46 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 63 9 3 - - X
47 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 62 10 3 - - X
48 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 60 8 4 - - X
49 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 60 7 5 - - X
50 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 59 9 3 - - X
51 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 58 7 5 - - X
52 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 58 7 5 - - X
53 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 57 6 6 - - X
54 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 56 6 6 - - X
55 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 56 9 3 - - X
56 Clemson ACCACC 55 7 5 - - X
57 California ACCACC 54 7 5 - - X
58 Western Michigan MACMAC 52 9 4 - - X
59 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 52 4 8 - - X
60 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
61 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 50 8 4 - - X
62 Florida SECSEC 50 4 8 - - X
63 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 6 6 - - X
64 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 6 6 - - X
65 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 49 8 4 - - X
66 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 49 5 7 - - X
67 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 49 8 5 - - X
68 Kentucky SECSEC 49 5 7 - - X
69 Auburn SECSEC 48 5 7 - - X
70 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 6 5 - - X
71 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 48 5 7 - - X
72 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 47 8 4 - - X
73 Baylor Big 12Big 12 46 5 7 - - X
74 Florida St. ACCACC 46 5 7 - - X
75 South Carolina SECSEC 46 4 8 - - X
76 Toledo MACMAC 45 8 4 - - X
77 Kansas Big 12Big 12 45 5 7 - - X
78 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 45 4 8 - - X
79 Ohio MACMAC 44 8 4 - - X
80 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 44 8 5 - - X
81 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 44 7 5 - - X
82 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 44 6 6 - - X
83 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 44 6 6 - - X
84 UCLA Big 10Big 10 43 3 9 - - X
85 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 43 7 5 - - X
86 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 42 7 5 - - X
87 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 7 - - X
88 UCF Big 12Big 12 41 5 7 - - X
89 Stanford ACCACC 41 4 8 - - X
90 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 41 6 6 - - X
91 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 41 7 5 - - X
92 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 40 5 7 - - X
93 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 39 4 8 - - X
94 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 39 6 6 - - X
95 Colorado Big 12Big 12 38 3 9 - - X
96 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 37 6 6 - - X
97 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 37 6 6 - - X
98 Central Michigan MACMAC 37 7 5 - - X
99 Miami OH MACMAC 37 7 6 - - X
100 Virginia Tech ACCACC 35 3 9 - - X
101 Maryland Big 10Big 10 34 4 8 - - X
102 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 34 5 7 - - X
103 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 33 4 8 - - X
104 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 10 - - X
105 North Carolina ACCACC 33 4 8 - - X
106 Syracuse ACCACC 32 3 9 - - X
107 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 32 4 8 - - X
108 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 31 6 6 - - X
109 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 29 5 7 - - X
110 Arkansas SECSEC 29 2 10 - - X
111 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 27 4 8 - - X
112 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 24 4 8 - - X
113 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 24 4 8 - - X
114 Kent State MACMAC 23 5 7 - - X
115 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 21 4 8 - - X
116 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 20 4 8 - - X
117 Boston College ACCACC 19 2 10 - - X
118 Buffalo MACMAC 18 5 7 - - X
119 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 16 3 9 - - X
120 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 16 3 9 - - X
121 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 16 3 9 - - X
122 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 16 4 8 - - X
123 Ball State MACMAC 15 4 8 - - X
124 Akron MACMAC 15 5 7 - - X
125 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 15 2 10 - - X
126 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 14 1 11 - - X
127 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 13 2 10 - - X
128 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 12 4 8 - - X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 12 1 11 - - X
130 Bowling Green MACMAC 11 4 8 - - X
131 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 9 1 11 - - X
132 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 8 3 9 - - X
133 Northern Illinois MACMAC 5 3 9 - - X
134 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 4 2 10 - - X
135 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 1 2 10 - - X
136 UMass MACMAC -17 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot