Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | MWP | Record | College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Win Out | Lose 1 More | Current | ||||
| 1 | Texas | SECSEC | 80 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 39% |
| 2 | Georgia | SECSEC | 80 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 37% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 79 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 40% |
| 4 | Indiana | Big 10Big 10 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 34% |
| 5 | Miami | ACCACC | 89 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| 6 | Ohio St. | Big 10Big 10 | 77 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 33% |
| 7 | LSU | SECSEC | 77 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 32% |
| 8 | Ole Miss | SECSEC | 76 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 31% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | SECSEC | 75 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 29% |
| 10 | Alabama | SECSEC | 75 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 29% |
| 11 | BYU | Big 12Big 12 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 30% |
| 12 | USC | Big 10Big 10 | 74 | 3 | 0 | >99% | 91% | 26% |
| 13 | Texas Tech | Big 12Big 12 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 38% |
| 14 | Penn St. | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 90% | 25% |
| 15 | Tennessee | SECSEC | 72 | 2 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 25% |
| 16 | SMU | ACCACC | 71 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 25% |
| 17 | Utah | Big 12Big 12 | 71 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 97% | 22% |
| 18 | Iowa | Big 10Big 10 | 71 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 95% | 21% |
| 19 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 70 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 93% | 22% |
| 20 | Missouri | SECSEC | 69 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 21% |
| 21 | Oregon | Big 10Big 10 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 19% |
| 22 | Houston | Big 12Big 12 | 61 | 2 | 1 | >99% | 86% | 9% |
| 23 | Louisville | ACCACC | 67 | 1 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 18% |
| 24 | Oklahoma | SECSEC | 67 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 18% |
| 25 | Virginia | ACCACC | 66 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 98% | 18% |
| 26 | Pittsburgh | ACCACC | 70 | 3 | 0 | >99% | 78% | 21% |
| 27 | Nebraska | Big 10Big 10 | 67 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 89% | 16% |
| 28 | Mississippi St.Miss. St. | SECSEC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 97% | 17% |
| 29 | Michigan St. | Big 10Big 10 | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 93% | 17% |
| 30 | Florida | SECSEC | 66 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 18% |
| 31 | South Florida | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 66 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 15% |
| 32 | Tulsa | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 66 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 15% |
| 33 | Duke | ACCACC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 75% | 20% |
| 34 | Vanderbilt | SECSEC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 98% | 17% |
| 35 | South Carolina | SECSEC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 98% | 17% |
| 36 | Maryland | Big 10Big 10 | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 96% | 16% |
| 37 | Auburn | SECSEC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 93% | 16% |
| 38 | North Carolina | ACCACC | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 96% | 15% |
| 39 | UCLA | Big 10Big 10 | 66 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 80% | 17% |
| 40 | Virginia Tech | ACCACC | 65 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 16% |
| 41 | Cincinnati | Big 12Big 12 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 96% | 16% |
| 42 | Washington | Big 10Big 10 | 63 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 95% | 11% |
| 43 | West Virginia | Big 12Big 12 | 62 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 91% | 14% |
| 44 | Colorado | Big 12Big 12 | 62 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 94% | 14% |
| 45 | North Dakota St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 61 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 8% |
| 46 | UTSA | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 60 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 12% |
| 47 | Georgia St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 59 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 9% |
| 48 | Kansas St. | Big 12Big 12 | 59 | 2 | 0 | >99% | 79% | 10% |
| 49 | James Madison | SunbeltSunbelt | 58 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 10% |
| 50 | Appalachian St.App. St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 58 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 8% |
| 51 | New Mexico | Mountain WestMntn West | 57 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 7% |
| 52 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12Big 12 | 57 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 80% | 9% |
| 53 | Illinois | Big 10Big 10 | 56 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 87% | 6% |
| 54 | Clemson | ACCACC | 56 | 1 | 1 | 98% | 65% | 5% |
| 55 | Troy | SunbeltSunbelt | 56 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 6% |
| 56 | Colorado St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 4% |
| 57 | California | ACCACC | 55 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 85% | 7% |
| 58 | UMass | MACMAC | 55 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 59 | NorthwesternN. Western | Big 10Big 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | >99% | 94% | 7% |
| 60 | Wake Forest | ACCACC | 55 | 2 | 1 | 93% | 25% | 5% |
| 61 | Memphis | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 53 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 62 | San José State | Mountain WestMntn West | 53 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 63 | Tulane | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 53 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 5% |
| 64 | Stanford | ACCACC | 52 | 1 | 1 | 99% | 68% | 3% |
| 65 | Boston College | ACCACC | 51 | 1 | 1 | 99% | 73% | 3% |
| 66 | Marshall | SunbeltSunbelt | 50 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 67 | Arkansas | SECSEC | 50 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 98% | 3% |
| 68 | Florida St. | ACCACC | 49 | 1 | 1 | 95% | 59% | 2% |
| 69 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 49 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 87% | 2% |
| 70 | Kentucky | SECSEC | 48 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 84% | 2% |
| 71 | Florida Atlantic | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 48 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 72 | Fresno State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 73 | Florida Intl. | Conference USAConf. USA | 47 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 74 | North Texas | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 47 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 75 | UCF | Big 12Big 12 | 47 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 69% | 4% |
| 76 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 46 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 87% | 2% |
| 77 | Baylor | Big 12Big 12 | 46 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 72% | 4% |
| 78 | Boise State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 79 | Arizona St. | Big 12Big 12 | 46 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 79% | 3% |
| 80 | N.C. State | ACCACC | 46 | 1 | 1 | 97% | 60% | 2% |
| 81 | Ohio | MACMAC | 46 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 82 | Purdue | Big 10Big 10 | 45 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 90% | 2% |
| 83 | UL Lafayette | SunbeltSunbelt | 45 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 84 | Iowa St. | Big 12Big 12 | 44 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 75% | 3% |
| 85 | Louisiana Tech | SunbeltSunbelt | 44 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 86 | UAB | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 43 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 87 | Southern Miss | SunbeltSunbelt | 43 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 88 | Rice | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 43 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 89 | Arizona | Big 12Big 12 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 95% | 36% | 1% |
| 90 | Miami OH | MACMAC | 43 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 91 | TCU | Big 12Big 12 | 42 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 76% | 2% |
| 92 | Kansas | Big 12Big 12 | 42 | 1 | 1 | >99% | 75% | 2% |
| 93 | Western Michigan | MACMAC | 42 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 94 | Old Dominion | SunbeltSunbelt | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 95 | San Diego State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 96 | Black Knights | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 97 | Coastal Carolina | SunbeltSunbelt | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 98 | Temple | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 99 | Missouri St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 41 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 100 | Toledo | MACMAC | 40 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 101 | Kent State | MACMAC | 40 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 102 | Akron | MACMAC | 40 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 103 | Ga. Southern | SunbeltSunbelt | 40 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 104 | Central Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 105 | Syracuse | ACCACC | 39 | 1 | 2 | 60% | 12% | <1% |
| 106 | UConn | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 39 | 1 | 1 | 36% | 3% | <1% |
| 107 | Arkansas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 108 | South Alabama | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 109 | Wyoming | Mountain WestMntn West | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 110 | UTEP | Mountain WestMntn West | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 111 | Delaware | Conference USAConf. USA | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 112 | Navy | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 39 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 113 | Air Force | Mountain WestMntn West | 38 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 114 | Buffalo | MACMAC | 38 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 115 | Ball State | MACMAC | 38 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 116 | Eastern Michigan | MACMAC | 37 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 117 | Liberty | Conference USAConf. USA | 37 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 118 | Kennesaw St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 36 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 119 | UNLV | Mountain WestMntn West | 35 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 120 | Middle Tenn. St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 35 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 121 | Georgia Tech | ACCACC | 33 | 0 | 2 | 94% | 40% | <1% |
| 122 | Rutgers | Big 10Big 10 | 33 | 0 | 2 | >99% | 80% | <1% |
| 123 | Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 30 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 124 | East Carolina | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 30 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 125 | LA Monroe | SunbeltSunbelt | 30 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 126 | Nevada | Mountain WestMntn West | 29 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 127 | Hawaii | Mountain WestMntn West | 29 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 128 | Washington St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 129 | Texas St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 130 | Sam Houston | Conference USAConf. USA | 27 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 131 | Sacramento St. | MACMAC | 27 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 132 | Oregon St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 133 | New Mexico St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 24 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 134 | W. Kentucky | Conference USAConf. USA | 20 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 135 | Charlotte | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 19 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 136 | Northern Illinois | Mountain WestMntn West | 18 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 137 | Bowling Green | MACMAC | 17 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 138 | Utah St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |