Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | MWP | Record | College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Win Out | Lose 1 More | Current | ||||
| 1 | Ohio St. | Big 10Big 10 | 92 | 4 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 57% |
| 2 | Oregon | Big 10Big 10 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 54% |
| 3 | Miami | ACCACC | 90 | 4 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 54% |
| 4 | Ole Miss | SECSEC | 89 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 95% | 52% |
| 5 | Oklahoma | SECSEC | 88 | 4 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 48% |
| 6 | Texas A&M | SECSEC | 88 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96% | 46% |
| 7 | Penn St. | Big 10Big 10 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 44% |
| 8 | Indiana | Big 10Big 10 | 86 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 94% | 42% |
| 9 | Texas | SECSEC | 85 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 41% |
| 10 | Alabama | SECSEC | 85 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 39% |
| 11 | Texas Tech | Big 12Big 12 | 84 | 4 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 37% |
| 12 | Georgia | SECSEC | 83 | 3 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 37% |
| 13 | LSU | SECSEC | 82 | 4 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 34% |
| 14 | Iowa St. | Big 12Big 12 | 82 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 95% | 33% |
| 15 | Tennessee | SECSEC | 81 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 96% | 30% |
| 16 | Vanderbilt | SECSEC | 80 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 91% | 29% |
| 17 | Georgia Tech | ACCACC | 79 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 71% | 30% |
| 18 | Florida St. | ACCACC | 78 | 3 | 1 | >99% | 94% | 29% |
| 19 | Missouri | SECSEC | 78 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 24% |
| 20 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 92% | 24% |
| 21 | Notre Dame | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 76 | 2 | 2 | >99% | 96% | 25% |
| 22 | Illinois | Big 10Big 10 | 75 | 4 | 1 | 97% | 49% | 17% |
| 23 | BYU | Big 12Big 12 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 91% | 22% |
| 24 | Virginia | ACCACC | 74 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 84% | 19% |
| 25 | Arizona St. | Big 12Big 12 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 89% | 19% |
| 26 | Houston | Big 12Big 12 | 73 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82% | 21% |
| 27 | Tulane | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 73 | 4 | 1 | 99% | 40% | 19% |
| 28 | Navy | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 73 | 4 | 0 | >99% | 73% | 19% |
| 29 | Memphis | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 73 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 68% | 20% |
| 30 | Louisville | ACCACC | 73 | 4 | 0 | >99% | 69% | 20% |
| 31 | USC | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 95% | 47% | 14% |
| 32 | North Texas | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 73 | 5 | 0 | >99% | 53% | 20% |
| 33 | Maryland | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93% | 18% |
| 34 | Mississippi St.Miss. St. | SECSEC | 71 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 70% | 12% |
| 35 | Utah | Big 12Big 12 | 67 | 4 | 1 | 96% | 39% | 8% |
| 36 | Arizona | Big 12Big 12 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 99% | 66% | 8% |
| 37 | TCU | Big 12Big 12 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 99% | 62% | 8% |
| 38 | California | ACCACC | 64 | 4 | 1 | 98% | 43% | 9% |
| 39 | Auburn | SECSEC | 64 | 3 | 2 | 55% | 5% | 3% |
| 40 | South Florida | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 64 | 3 | 1 | >99% | 65% | 9% |
| 41 | Washington | Big 10Big 10 | 64 | 3 | 1 | 98% | 44% | 6% |
| 42 | Cincinnati | Big 12Big 12 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 81% | 9% |
| 43 | Nebraska | Big 10Big 10 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 91% | 29% | 5% |
| 44 | Duke | ACCACC | 61 | 3 | 2 | 99% | 45% | 8% |
| 45 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 61 | 3 | 1 | >99% | 69% | 6% |
| 46 | South Carolina | SECSEC | 61 | 3 | 2 | 93% | 33% | 2% |
| 47 | UNLV | Mountain WestMntn West | 61 | 4 | 0 | 64% | 10% | 6% |
| 48 | Michigan St. | Big 10Big 10 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 98% | 44% | 4% |
| 49 | N.C. State | ACCACC | 60 | 3 | 2 | 32% | 2% | 1% |
| 50 | Fresno State | Mountain WestMntn West | 60 | 4 | 1 | 38% | 4% | 4% |
| 51 | Louisiana Tech | Conference USAConf. USA | 58 | 4 | 1 | 28% | 2% | 2% |
| 52 | Kansas | Big 12Big 12 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 90% | 21% | 3% |
| 53 | Iowa | Big 10Big 10 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 83% | 18% | 2% |
| 54 | San Diego State | Mountain WestMntn West | 57 | 3 | 1 | 55% | 9% | 4% |
| 55 | Old Dominion | SunbeltSunbelt | 56 | 3 | 1 | 49% | 5% | 3% |
| 56 | New Mexico | Mountain WestMntn West | 56 | 3 | 1 | 51% | 8% | 3% |
| 57 | Colorado | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 56% | 4% | 1% |
| 58 | UCF | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 1 | 95% | 32% | 2% |
| 59 | Baylor | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 84% | 16% | 2% |
| 60 | Boise State | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 3 | 1 | 79% | 21% | 4% |
| 61 | Syracuse | ACCACC | 54 | 3 | 2 | 70% | 8% | 2% |
| 62 | James Madison | SunbeltSunbelt | 54 | 3 | 1 | 42% | 3% | 2% |
| 63 | Texas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 54 | 3 | 1 | 26% | 2% | 2% |
| 64 | Kentucky | SECSEC | 52 | 2 | 2 | 45% | 5% | <1% |
| 65 | LA Monroe | SunbeltSunbelt | 52 | 3 | 1 | 46% | 4% | 2% |
| 66 | Washington St. | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 52 | 3 | 2 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 67 | Rice | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 52 | 3 | 2 | 70% | 5% | 1% |
| 68 | Utah St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 51 | 3 | 2 | 38% | 6% | 1% |
| 69 | East Carolina | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 51 | 3 | 2 | 76% | 13% | 2% |
| 70 | Rutgers | Big 10Big 10 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 53% | 3% | <1% |
| 71 | Delaware | Conference USAConf. USA | 51 | 3 | 1 | X | X | X |
| 72 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 50 | 2 | 2 | >99% | 57% | 1% |
| 73 | Hawaii | Mountain WestMntn West | 49 | 4 | 2 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 74 | W. Kentucky | Conference USAConf. USA | 49 | 4 | 1 | 15% | 1% | 1% |
| 75 | NorthwesternN. Western | Big 10Big 10 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 89% | 25% | 1% |
| 76 | Arkansas | SECSEC | 47 | 2 | 3 | 81% | 14% | <1% |
| 77 | Purdue | Big 10Big 10 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 96% | 30% | 1% |
| 78 | Virginia Tech | ACCACC | 47 | 2 | 3 | 95% | 44% | 1% |
| 79 | Temple | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 46 | 2 | 2 | 86% | 24% | 2% |
| 80 | UTSA | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 46 | 2 | 2 | 84% | 21% | 1% |
| 81 | Southern Miss | SunbeltSunbelt | 45 | 3 | 2 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 82 | Wake Forest | ACCACC | 45 | 2 | 2 | 18% | 1% | <1% |
| 83 | Pittsburgh | ACCACC | 45 | 2 | 2 | 73% | 8% | <1% |
| 84 | Stanford | ACCACC | 44 | 2 | 3 | 46% | 2% | <1% |
| 85 | UAB | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 44 | 2 | 2 | 64% | 5% | 1% |
| 86 | UConn | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 44 | 3 | 2 | X | X | X |
| 87 | Ohio | MACMAC | 44 | 3 | 2 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 88 | SMU | ACCACC | 44 | 2 | 2 | 87% | 20% | 1% |
| 89 | West Virginia | Big 12Big 12 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 51% | 1% | <1% |
| 90 | North Carolina | ACCACC | 42 | 2 | 2 | 86% | 20% | 1% |
| 91 | Florida | SECSEC | 41 | 1 | 3 | 87% | 24% | <1% |
| 92 | Kansas St. | Big 12Big 12 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 60% | 4% | <1% |
| 93 | Kennesaw St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 40 | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 94 | Central Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 3 | 2 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 95 | Coastal Carolina | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 2 | 2 | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 | Clemson | ACCACC | 39 | 1 | 3 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 | Toledo | MACMAC | 39 | 3 | 2 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 98 | New Mexico St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 | Georgia St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 38 | 1 | 3 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 | Troy | SunbeltSunbelt | 38 | 2 | 2 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 | Wyoming | Mountain WestMntn West | 37 | 2 | 2 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 | Tulsa | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 37 | 2 | 3 | 3% | X | <1% |
| 103 | Western Michigan | MACMAC | 36 | 2 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 104 | Ga. Southern | SunbeltSunbelt | 36 | 2 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 105 | Appalachian St.App. St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 36 | 2 | 2 | 1% | X | <1% |
| 106 | Florida Intl. | Conference USAConf. USA | 33 | 2 | 2 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 107 | Florida Atlantic | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 32 | 1 | 3 | 55% | 4% | <1% |
| 108 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12Big 12 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 82% | 11% | <1% |
| 109 | Bowling Green | MACMAC | 30 | 2 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 110 | Boston College | ACCACC | 30 | 1 | 3 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 111 | Missouri St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 29 | 2 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 112 | UCLA | Big 10Big 10 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 69% | 7% | <1% |
| 113 | UL Lafayette | SunbeltSunbelt | 28 | 2 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 114 | Black Knights | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1% | X | <1% |
| 115 | Northern Illinois | MACMAC | 26 | 1 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 116 | Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 25 | 2 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 117 | South Alabama | SunbeltSunbelt | 25 | 1 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 118 | Marshall | SunbeltSunbelt | 25 | 2 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 119 | Colorado St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 25 | 1 | 3 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 120 | Buffalo | MACMAC | 24 | 2 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 121 | Air Force | Mountain WestMntn West | 24 | 1 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 122 | Oregon St. | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 23 | 0 | 5 | X | X | X |
| 123 | San José State | Mountain WestMntn West | 23 | 1 | 3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 124 | Kent State | MACMAC | 22 | 1 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 125 | Charlotte | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 21 | 1 | 3 | 29% | 1% | <1% |
| 126 | Arkansas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 21 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 127 | Ball State | MACMAC | 20 | 1 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 128 | Miami OH | MACMAC | 20 | 1 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 129 | Nevada | Mountain WestMntn West | 20 | 1 | 3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 130 | UTEP | Conference USAConf. USA | 19 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 131 | Sam Houston | Conference USAConf. USA | 16 | 0 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 132 | Liberty | Conference USAConf. USA | 14 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 133 | Akron | MACMAC | 13 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 134 | Eastern Michigan | MACMAC | 12 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 135 | Middle Tenn. St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 8 | 1 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 136 | UMass | MACMAC | 5 | 0 | 4 | X | X | X |