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Sun Nov 2 2:30 am

NCAA Football - Week 11 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 103 8 0 100% >99% 92%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 102 9 0 100% 96% 95%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 98 8 0 100% 95% 80%
4 Alabama SECSEC 96 7 1 100% 96% 75%
5 Georgia SECSEC 98 7 1 100% 100% 83%
6 Oregon Big 10Big 10 95 7 1 100% 100% 71%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 95 8 1 >99% 63% 75%
8 Georgia Tech ACCACC 82 8 1 89% 34% 29%
9 Vanderbilt SECSEC 85 7 2 85% 5% 31%
10 Miami ACCACC 84 6 2 89% 9% 24%
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 91 8 0 100% 99% 63%
 
12 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 88 6 2 >99% 65% 45%
13 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 92 8 1 100% 84% 60%
14 Tennessee SECSEC 81 6 3 49% <1% 12%
15 Virginia ACCACC 91 8 1 100% 75% 57%
16 Louisville ACCACC 87 7 1 96% 33% 39%
17 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 76 7 2 100% 22% 12%
18 Oklahoma SECSEC 86 7 2 >99% 35% 33%
19 Missouri SECSEC 80 6 2 >99% 33% 14%
20 Texas SECSEC 87 7 2 >99% 58% 32%
21 Michigan Big 10Big 10 80 7 2 82% 5% 11%
22 Houston Big 12Big 12 69 7 2 21% <1% 2%
23 USC Big 10Big 10 83 6 2 95% 21% 23%
24 Utah Big 12Big 12 81 7 2 43% 4% 11%
25 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 8 1 99% 16% 18%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 8 1 83% 6% 23%
27 Illinois Big 10Big 10 75 6 3 <1% X <1%
28 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 73 6 3 39% <1% 5%
29 Washington Big 10Big 10 73 6 2 3% <1% <1%
30 TCU Big 12Big 12 72 6 2 72% 6% 4%
31 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 72 7 1 67% 7% 16%
32 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 71 6 2 92% 4% 13%
33 Pittsburgh ACCACC 71 7 2 53% 9% 5%
34 Iowa Big 10Big 10 68 6 2 39% 2% 2%
35 LSU SECSEC 67 5 3 1% X <1%
36 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 67 6 3 <1% X <1%
37 N.C. State ACCACC 66 5 4 X X X
38 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 65 7 1 34% 4% 6%
39 Duke ACCACC 65 5 3 72% 6% 6%
40 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 65 6 2 67% 3% 10%
41 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 65 7 1 72% 12% 8%
42 SMU ACCACC 64 6 3 38% 1% 4%
43 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 64 6 3 2% X <1%
44 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 5 3 60% 2% 6%
45 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 62 5 4 X X X
46 Arizona Big 12Big 12 62 5 3 3% X <1%
47 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 61 6 3 <1% X <1%
48 Wake Forest ACCACC 60 5 3 <1% X <1%
49 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 59 5 3 5% X <1%
50 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 59 5 4 X X X
51 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 59 6 2 7% <1% 1%
52 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 6 3 4% <1% 1%
53 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 57 6 2 5% <1% 1%
54 Baylor Big 12Big 12 56 5 4 2% X <1%
55 Florida St. ACCACC 55 4 4 X X X
56 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 3 1% X <1%
57 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 2 1% X <1%
58 Florida SECSEC 54 3 5 X X X
59 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 54 5 3 4% <1% <1%
60 Kansas Big 12Big 12 54 5 4 1% X <1%
61 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 52 6 3 <1% X <1%
62 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 51 7 2 <1% X <1%
63 California ACCACC 51 5 4 X X X
64 UCLA Big 10Big 10 50 3 5 8% X <1%
65 Auburn SECSEC 50 4 5 X X X
66 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 4 4 8% X <1%
67 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 49 4 5 X X X
68 Colorado Big 12Big 12 48 3 6 X X X
69 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 48 6 3 <1% X <1%
70 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 5 4 7% X <1%
71 Maryland Big 10Big 10 48 4 4 X X X
72 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 47 5 3 X X X
73 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 47 6 3 <1% X <1%
74 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 47 4 5 X X X
75 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 47 4 5 <1% X <1%
76 UCF Big 12Big 12 46 4 4 X X X
77 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 46 3 6 X X X
78 Stanford ACCACC 45 3 6 X X X
79 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 45 5 3 X X X
80 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 6 X X X
81 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 44 6 3 X X X
82 Kentucky SECSEC 44 3 5 X X X
83 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 43 4 4 <1% X <1%
84 Virginia Tech ACCACC 43 3 6 X X X
85 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 4 4 X X X
86 Ohio MACMAC 42 5 3 X X X
87 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 41 5 4 X X X
88 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 41 2 6 X X X
89 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 40 5 3 X X X
90 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 40 3 6 X X X
91 Clemson ACCACC 39 3 5 X X X
92 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 39 4 4 X X X
93 Miami OH MACMAC 39 5 3 X X X
94 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 39 4 5 X X X
95 Western Michigan MACMAC 39 5 4 X X X
96 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 38 3 5 X X X
97 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 38 4 4 X X X
98 Syracuse ACCACC 37 3 6 X X X
99 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 36 3 5 <1% X <1%
100 Central Michigan MACMAC 36 5 4 X X X
101 Arkansas SECSEC 35 2 7 X X X
102 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 34 3 5 X X X
103 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 34 4 4 X X X
104 North Carolina ACCACC 34 3 5 X X X
105 Purdue Big 10Big 10 34 2 7 X X X
106 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 34 3 5 X X X
107 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 33 4 5 X X X
108 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 32 4 4 X X X
109 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 6 X X X
110 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 31 3 5 X X X
111 Toledo MACMAC 31 4 4 X X X
112 Buffalo MACMAC 30 5 4 X X X
113 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 29 3 5 X X X
114 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 26 3 5 X X X
115 Kent State MACMAC 24 3 5 X X X
116 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 24 2 7 X X X
117 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 2 6 X X X
118 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 23 3 6 X X X
119 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 23 2 6 X X X
120 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 22 3 5 X X X
121 Bowling Green MACMAC 22 3 6 X X X
122 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 20 2 6 X X X
123 Ball State MACMAC 19 3 5 X X X
124 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 19 1 8 X X X
125 Akron MACMAC 17 3 6 X X X
126 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 16 2 7 X X X
127 Boston College ACCACC 15 1 8 X X X
128 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 15 1 7 X X X
129 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 14 2 6 X X X
130 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 13 1 7 X X X
131 Northern Illinois MACMAC 11 2 6 X X X
132 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 7 1 7 X X X
133 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 3 2 7 X X X
134 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 0 1 7 X X X
135 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA -1 0 8 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -7 0 8 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot