PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 2 8:15 am

NCAA Football - Week 15 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. New Click on a team's probability for more detail information. New

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC SEC 116 13 0 - - 100%
2 Clemson ACC ACC 112 13 0 - - 100%
3 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 109 12 0 - - 100%
4 Oklahoma Big 12 Big 12 108 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Ohio St. Big 10 Big 10 106 12 1 - - X
6 Georgia SEC SEC 103 11 2 - - X
7 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 102 10 2 - - X
8 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 100 11 0 X X X
9 Washington PAC 12 PAC 12 99 10 3 - - X
10 Florida SEC SEC 98 9 3 - - X
11 LSU SEC SEC 97 9 3 - - X
12 Penn St. Big 10 Big 10 94 9 3 - - X
13 Washington St. PAC 12 PAC 12 92 10 2 - - X
14 Kentucky SEC SEC 88 9 3 - - X
15 Texas Big 12 Big 12 88 9 4 - - X
16 West Virginia Big 12 Big 12 87 8 3 - - X
17 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SEC SEC 84 8 4 - - X
18 Texas A&M SEC SEC 83 8 4 - - X
19 Utah PAC 12 PAC 12 83 9 4 - - X
20 Syracuse ACC ACC 80 9 3 - - X
21 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10 Big 10 76 8 5 - - X
22 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 76 11 2 - - X
23 Iowa St. Big 12 Big 12 75 7 4 - - X
24 Stanford PAC 12 PAC 12 74 8 4 - - X
25 Appalachian St.App. St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 74 10 2 - - X
26 Missouri SEC SEC 73 8 4 - - X
27 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 73 10 3 - - X
28 N.C. State ACC ACC 72 8 3 - - X
29 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 10 2 - - X
30 South Carolina SEC SEC 71 6 5 - - X
31 Pittsburgh ACC ACC 70 7 6 - - X
32 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 70 9 2 X X X
33 Iowa Big 10 Big 10 67 8 4 - - X
34 Auburn SEC SEC 66 7 5 - - X
35 Duke ACC ACC 65 7 5 - - X
36 Ga. Southern Sunbelt Sunbelt 64 9 3 - - X
37 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 64 10 2 - - X
38 Boston College ACC ACC 63 7 5 - - X
39 Michigan St. Big 10 Big 10 63 7 5 - - X
40 UAB Conference USA Conf. USA 63 10 3 - - X
41 Oregon PAC 12 PAC 12 63 8 4 - - X
42 Troy Sunbelt Sunbelt 62 9 3 - - X
43 Vanderbilt SEC SEC 62 6 6 - - X
44 Buffalo MAC MAC 61 10 3 - - X
45 Georgia Tech ACC ACC 61 7 5 - - X
46 Miami ACC ACC 60 7 5 - - X
47 Northern IllinoisN. Illinois MAC MAC 59 8 5 - - X
48 Arizona St. PAC 12 PAC 12 59 7 5 - - X
49 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 59 8 4 - - X
50 Wake Forest ACC ACC 59 6 6 - - X
51 Purdue Big 10 Big 10 58 6 6 - - X
52 Florida St. ACC ACC 56 5 7 - - X
53 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 56 8 5 - - X
54 Arkansas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 55 8 4 - - X
55 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 55 8 3 - - X
56 TCU Big 12 Big 12 55 6 6 - - X
57 California PAC 12 PAC 12 55 7 5 - - X
58 Wisconsin Big 10 Big 10 54 7 5 - - X
59 Ohio MAC MAC 54 8 4 - - X
60 Virginia ACC ACC 53 7 5 - - X
61 TennesseeTenn. SEC SEC 53 5 7 - - X
62 Oklahoma St. Big 12 Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
63 Minnesota Big 10 Big 10 52 6 6 - - X
64 Baylor Big 12 Big 12 51 6 6 - - X
65 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 8 4 X X X
66 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 8 4 X X X
67 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 6 6 - - X
68 UL Lafayette Sunbelt Sunbelt 49 7 6 - - X
69 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 49 7 5 - - X
70 USC PAC 12 PAC 12 49 5 7 - - X
71 Western MichiganW. Michigan MAC MAC 48 7 5 - - X
72 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 7 5 - - X
73 Indiana Big 10 Big 10 48 5 7 - - X
74 Virginia Tech ACC ACC 48 5 6 - - X
75 Maryland Big 10 Big 10 48 5 7 - - X
76 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 48 9 3 - - X
77 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 48 8 5 - - X
78 Ole Miss SEC SEC 47 5 7 - - X
79 Eastern MichiganE. Michigan MAC MAC 46 7 5 - - X
80 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 46 6 6 X X X
81 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 46 7 5 - - X
82 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 46 8 4 - - X
83 Miami OH MAC MAC 45 6 6 - - X
84 Toledo MAC MAC 45 7 5 - - X
85 Texas Tech Big 12 Big 12 45 5 7 - - X
86 Kansas St. Big 12 Big 12 44 5 7 - - X
87 LA Monroe Sunbelt Sunbelt 41 6 6 - - X
88 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 41 6 6 - - X
89 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 41 7 5 - - X
90 Arizona PAC 12 PAC 12 40 5 7 - - X
91 Nebraska Big 10 Big 10 40 4 8 - - X
92 UCLA PAC 12 PAC 12 39 3 9 - - X
93 Colorado PAC 12 PAC 12 39 5 7 - - X
94 Coastal CarolinaC. Carolina Sunbelt Sunbelt 38 5 7 - - X
95 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 38 5 7 - - X
96 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 36 6 5 - - X
97 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 35 5 7 - - X
98 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 31 5 7 - - X
99 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 30 5 7 - - X
100 Louisville ACC ACC 30 2 10 - - X
101 Illinois Big 10 Big 10 28 4 8 - - X
102 MassachusettsMass. NCAA IndependentsInd. 27 4 8 - - X
103 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 27 3 9 X X X
104 Akron MAC MAC 26 4 7 - - X
105 Oregon St. PAC 12 PAC 12 24 2 10 - - X
106 Kansas Big 12 Big 12 24 3 9 - - X
107 Ball State MAC MAC 23 4 8 - - X
108 Arkansas SEC SEC 23 2 10 - - X
109 North Carolina ACC ACC 22 2 9 - - X
110 South Alabama Sunbelt Sunbelt 20 3 9 - - X
111 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 19 4 8 - - X
112 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 18 3 8 - - X
113 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 16 3 9 - - X
114 Georgia St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 15 2 10 - - X
115 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 14 4 8 - - X
116 Bowling Green MAC MAC 14 3 9 - - X
117 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 13 3 9 - - X
118 Rutgers Big 10 Big 10 13 1 11 - - X
119 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 12 3 9 - - X
120 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 12 3 9 - - X
121 Texas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 10 3 9 - - X
122 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 8 3 9 - - X
123 Kent State MAC MAC 7 2 10 - - X
124 ConnecticutConnect. American Athletic Am. Athletic 6 1 11 - - X
125 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 6 1 11 - - X
126 New Mexico St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 6 3 9 - - X
127 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 4 2 11 - - X
128 Central MichiganC. Michigan MAC MAC 0 1 11 - - X
129 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA -11 1 11 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot