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Sun Nov 16 6:45 am

NCAA Football - Week 13 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 102 10 0 100% 97% 92%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 101 11 0 100% 60% 94%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 101 10 0 100% 74% 83%
4 Alabama SECSEC 92 8 2 75% 14% 44%
5 Georgia SECSEC 101 9 1 100% 95% 95%
6 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 99 10 1 100% 67% 86%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 98 10 1 >99% 42% 83%
8 Oregon Big 10Big 10 96 9 1 100% 85% 70%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 96 8 2 99% 25% 79%
10 Texas SECSEC 88 7 3 84% 1% 25%
 
11 Oklahoma SECSEC 98 8 2 100% 84% 85%
12 BYU Big 12Big 12 93 9 1 100% 40% 59%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 91 8 2 76% 7% 44%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 85 8 2 19% X 8%
15 Miami ACCACC 88 8 2 54% 2% 23%
16 Georgia Tech ACCACC 85 9 1 100% 49% 40%
17 USC Big 10Big 10 86 8 2 39% 1% 11%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 85 8 2 60% 1% 13%
19 Virginia ACCACC 84 9 2 89% 2% 41%
20 Louisville ACCACC 72 7 3 X X X
21 Iowa Big 10Big 10 75 6 4 <1% X <1%
22 Pittsburgh ACCACC 73 7 3 72% 3% 6%
23 Tennessee SECSEC 77 7 3 <1% X <1%
24 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 70 7 3 4% X 1%
25 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 67 7 3 30% <1% 2%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 77 9 1 82% 2% 29%
27 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 76 7 3 29% X 5%
28 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 8 2 71% 2% 28%
29 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 75 9 1 60% 4% 24%
30 Illinois Big 10Big 10 75 7 3 X X X
31 Houston Big 12Big 12 73 8 2 5% <1% 1%
32 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 8 2 51% 1% 14%
33 Arizona Big 12Big 12 72 7 3 <1% X <1%
34 Washington Big 10Big 10 70 7 3 X X X
35 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 68 7 3 X X X
36 Wake Forest ACCACC 67 7 3 X X X
37 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 67 7 3 41% 1% 8%
38 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 6 4 X X X
39 SMU ACCACC 66 7 3 53% 1% 8%
40 LSU SECSEC 66 6 4 X X X
41 Missouri SECSEC 66 7 3 X X X
42 TCU Big 12Big 12 64 6 4 X X X
43 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 64 8 2 2% X <1%
44 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 8 3 X X X
45 N.C. State ACCACC 62 5 5 X X X
46 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 62 7 3 X X X
47 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 61 8 2 <1% X <1%
48 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 61 6 4 X X X
49 Duke ACCACC 58 5 5 2% X <1%
50 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 56 7 3 <1% X <1%
51 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 55 7 3 <1% X <1%
52 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 55 5 5 X X X
53 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 4 X X X
54 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 55 8 2 <1% X <1%
55 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 54 7 3 X X X
56 California ACCACC 54 6 4 X X X
57 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 54 7 3 X X X
58 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 53 7 3 X X X
59 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 53 7 3 <1% X <1%
60 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 53 5 6 X X X
61 Florida St. ACCACC 52 5 5 X X X
62 Baylor Big 12Big 12 52 5 5 X X X
63 Kentucky SECSEC 52 5 5 X X X
64 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 52 8 3 X X X
65 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 5 5 X X X
66 Kansas Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 X X X
67 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 <1% X <1%
68 Clemson ACCACC 50 5 5 X X X
69 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 5 5 X X X
70 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 5 5 X X X
71 Auburn SECSEC 50 4 6 X X X
72 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 49 6 4 X X X
73 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 5 4 X X X
74 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 49 7 3 X X X
75 Florida SECSEC 48 3 7 X X X
76 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 47 4 7 X X X
77 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 46 3 7 X X X
78 UCLA Big 10Big 10 46 3 7 X X X
79 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 7 X X X
80 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 45 5 5 X X X
81 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 45 5 5 X X X
82 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 45 6 4 X X X
83 Colorado Big 12Big 12 44 3 7 X X X
84 Western Michigan MACMAC 43 6 4 X X X
85 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 43 4 6 X X X
86 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
87 UCF Big 12Big 12 43 4 6 X X X
88 Ohio MACMAC 42 6 4 X X X
89 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 42 5 5 X X X
90 Maryland Big 10Big 10 41 4 6 X X X
91 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 41 5 5 X X X
92 Toledo MACMAC 40 6 4 X X X
93 Central Michigan MACMAC 38 6 4 X X X
94 Virginia Tech ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
95 Stanford ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
96 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 4 6 X X X
97 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 38 5 5 X X X
98 Syracuse ACCACC 37 3 7 X X X
99 North Carolina ACCACC 36 4 6 X X X
100 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 36 5 5 X X X
101 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 36 5 5 X X X
102 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 35 3 7 X X X
103 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 33 4 6 X X X
104 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 9 X X X
105 Arkansas SECSEC 33 2 8 X X X
106 Miami OH MACMAC 32 5 5 X X X
107 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 32 5 5 X X X
108 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 30 4 6 X X X
109 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 30 4 6 X X X
110 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 29 3 7 X X X
111 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 29 4 6 X X X
112 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 26 4 6 X X X
113 Buffalo MACMAC 26 5 5 X X X
114 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 24 3 7 X X X
115 Kent State MACMAC 24 4 6 X X X
116 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 3 7 X X X
117 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 23 3 7 X X X
118 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 22 3 7 X X X
119 Ball State MACMAC 19 4 6 X X X
120 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 19 2 8 X X X
121 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 19 3 7 X X X
122 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 18 3 7 X X X
123 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 18 1 9 X X X
124 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 17 2 9 X X X
125 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 15 4 7 X X X
126 Bowling Green MACMAC 14 3 7 X X X
127 Akron MACMAC 13 4 7 X X X
128 Boston College ACCACC 13 1 10 X X X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 12 1 9 X X X
130 Northern Illinois MACMAC 11 3 7 X X X
131 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 11 2 8 X X X
132 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 11 1 9 X X X
133 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 11 2 8 X X X
134 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 8 2 8 X X X
135 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 0 1 9 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -14 0 10 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot