PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Jan 2 9:30 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC SEC 116 12 1 - - >99%
2 Georgia SEC SEC 113 13 1 - - >99%
3 Clemson ACC ACC 109 12 2 - - >99%
4 Oklahoma Big 12 Big 12 106 12 2 - - >99%
 
5 Auburn SEC SEC 103 10 3 - - X
6 Ohio St. Big 10 Big 10 102 11 2 - - X
7 Wisconsin Big 10 Big 10 101 12 1 - - X
8 USC PAC 12 PAC 12 98 11 2 - - X
9 Miami ACC ACC 96 10 2 - - X
10 Penn St. Big 10 Big 10 96 10 2 - - X
11 Washington PAC 12 PAC 12 94 10 2 - - X
12 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 92 12 0 - - X
13 Stanford PAC 12 PAC 12 91 9 4 - - X
14 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 91 9 3 - - X
15 LSU SEC SEC 89 9 3 - - X
16 TCU Big 12 Big 12 88 10 3 - - X
17 Michigan St. Big 10 Big 10 87 9 3 - - X
18 Washington St. PAC 12 PAC 12 84 9 3 - - X
19 Oklahoma St. Big 12 Big 12 82 9 3 - - X
20 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 81 10 2 - - X
21 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SEC SEC 81 8 4 - - X
22 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10 Big 10 80 9 3 - - X
23 Virginia Tech ACC ACC 79 9 3 - - X
24 N.C. State ACC ACC 77 8 4 - - X
25 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 75 10 3 - - X
26 Boston College ACC ACC 75 7 5 - - X
27 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 74 8 4 - - X
28 South Carolina SEC SEC 74 8 4 - - X
29 Iowa Big 10 Big 10 74 7 5 - - X
30 Toledo MAC MAC 73 11 2 - - X
31 Louisville ACC ACC 73 8 4 - - X
32 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 72 10 2 - - X
33 Wake Forest ACC ACC 70 7 5 - - X
34 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 69 10 3 - - X
35 Arizona St. PAC 12 PAC 12 67 7 5 - - X
36 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 67 9 2 - - X
37 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 66 7 5 - - X
38 Florida St. ACC ACC 65 6 6 - - X
39 Texas A&M SEC SEC 64 7 5 - - X
40 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 63 9 4 - - X
41 Kentucky SEC SEC 63 7 5 - - X
42 UCLA PAC 12 PAC 12 63 6 6 - - X
43 Oregon PAC 12 PAC 12 62 7 5 - - X
44 Missouri SEC SEC 60 7 5 - - X
45 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 60 7 4 - - X
46 Purdue Big 10 Big 10 59 6 6 - - X
47 Troy Sunbelt Sunbelt 59 10 2 - - X
48 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 59 9 4 - - X
49 Iowa St. Big 12 Big 12 59 7 5 - - X
50 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 58 7 5 - - X
51 Arizona PAC 12 PAC 12 58 7 5 - - X
52 West Virginia Big 12 Big 12 58 7 5 - - X
53 Georgia Tech ACC ACC 57 5 6 - - X
54 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 56 8 4 - - X
55 Northern IllinoisN. Illinois MAC MAC 56 8 4 - - X
56 Utah PAC 12 PAC 12 56 6 6 - - X
57 Virginia ACC ACC 55 6 6 - - X
58 Central MichiganC. Michigan MAC MAC 54 8 4 - - X
59 Ole Miss SEC SEC 54 6 6 - - X
60 Maryland Big 10 Big 10 53 4 8 - - X
61 Duke ACC ACC 53 6 6 - - X
62 Texas Big 12 Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
63 Kansas St. Big 12 Big 12 52 7 5 - - X
64 Texas Tech Big 12 Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
65 Indiana Big 10 Big 10 50 5 7 - - X
66 Florida SEC SEC 50 4 7 - - X
67 Ohio MAC MAC 49 8 4 - - X
68 California PAC 12 PAC 12 49 5 7 - - X
69 Minnesota Big 10 Big 10 48 5 7 - - X
70 Syracuse ACC ACC 48 4 8 - - X
71 Vanderbilt SEC SEC 48 5 7 - - X
72 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 47 6 6 - - X
73 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 47 7 4 - - X
74 Nebraska Big 10 Big 10 47 4 8 - - X
75 Akron MAC MAC 46 7 6 - - X
76 Pittsburgh ACC ACC 46 5 7 - - X
77 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 44 7 5 - - X
78 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 44 8 4 - - X
79 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 43 7 5 - - X
80 Western MichiganW. Michigan MAC MAC 43 6 6 - - X
81 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 43 7 5 - - X
82 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 43 5 7 - - X
83 Colorado PAC 12 PAC 12 42 5 7 - - X
84 Rutgers Big 10 Big 10 42 4 8 - - X
85 TennesseeTenn. SEC SEC 42 4 8 - - X
86 Appalachian St.App. St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 41 8 4 - - X
87 Arkansas SEC SEC 41 4 8 - - X
88 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 39 6 6 - - X
89 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 37 5 7 - - X
90 UAB Conference USA Conf. USA 37 8 4 - - X
91 Buffalo MAC MAC 36 6 6 - - X
92 Arkansas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 36 7 4 - - X
93 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 35 6 6 - - X
94 North Carolina ACC ACC 33 3 9 - - X
95 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 32 4 8 - - X
96 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 32 6 6 - - X
97 Eastern MichiganE. Michigan MAC MAC 32 5 7 - - X
98 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 29 6 5 - - X
99 Miami OH MAC MAC 27 5 7 - - X
100 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 27 6 6 - - X
101 ConnecticutConnect. American Athletic Am. Athletic 26 3 9 - - X
102 Georgia St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 26 6 5 - - X
103 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 26 3 9 - - X
104 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 26 5 7 - - X
105 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 26 4 9 - - X
106 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 26 5 7 - - X
107 New Mexico St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 25 6 6 - - X
108 Illinois Big 10 Big 10 24 2 10 - - X
109 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 23 3 9 - - X
110 LA Monroe Sunbelt Sunbelt 19 4 8 - - X
111 Oregon St. PAC 12 PAC 12 19 1 11 - - X
112 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 18 2 10 - - X
113 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 18 3 9 - - X
114 UL Lafayette Sunbelt Sunbelt 16 5 7 - - X
115 MassachusettsMass. NCAA IndependentsInd. 15 4 7 - - X
116 Kent State MAC MAC 14 2 10 - - X
117 South Alabama Sunbelt Sunbelt 13 4 8 - - X
118 Bowling Green MAC MAC 13 2 10 - - X
119 Idaho Sunbelt Sunbelt 11 4 8 - - X
120 Kansas Big 12 Big 12 11 1 11 - - X
121 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 11 3 9 - - X
122 Baylor Big 12 Big 12 9 1 11 - - X
123 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 6 2 11 - - X
124 Ball State MAC MAC 5 2 10 - - X
125 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 1 1 11 - - X
126 Ga. Southern Sunbelt Sunbelt 0 2 10 - - X
127 Coastal CarolinaC. Carolina Sunbelt Sunbelt 0 3 9 - - X
128 Texas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt -4 2 10 - - X
129 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA -4 1 11 - - X
130 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA -7 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot