PlayoffStatus.com

Mon Sep 18 11:30 am

NCAA Football - Week 4 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 88 3 0 100% 99% 32%
2 Iowa Big 10 Big 10 82 3 0 >99% 96% 23%
3 Clemson ACC ACC 81 3 0 92% 51% 18%
4 Minnesota Big 10 Big 10 80 3 0 >99% 97% 21%
 
5 USC PAC 12 PAC 12 80 3 0 >99% 94% 20%
6 Kentucky SEC SEC 79 3 0 99% 82% 18%
7 California PAC 12 PAC 12 78 3 0 >99% 94% 17%
8 Wisconsin Big 10 Big 10 78 3 0 >99% 94% 17%
9 Georgia SEC SEC 77 3 0 98% 71% 15%
10 Oklahoma Big 12 Big 12 75 3 0 51% 6% 6%
11 Alabama SEC SEC 75 3 0 90% 38% 10%
12 Washington St. PAC 12 PAC 12 74 3 0 >99% 89% 12%
13 Washington PAC 12 PAC 12 74 3 0 >99% 83% 12%
14 Oregon PAC 12 PAC 12 74 3 0 99% 79% 12%
15 Oklahoma St. Big 12 Big 12 74 3 0 42% 4% 5%
16 Vanderbilt SEC SEC 72 3 0 96% 60% 9%
17 Colorado PAC 12 PAC 12 72 3 0 >99% 86% 11%
18 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 2 0 81% 29% 8%
19 Penn St. Big 10 Big 10 72 3 0 >99% 85% 10%
20 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SEC SEC 72 3 0 90% 39% 8%
21 Maryland Big 10 Big 10 71 2 0 >99% 98% 11%
22 Wake Forest ACC ACC 71 3 0 96% 59% 9%
23 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 71 2 0 97% 64% 10%
24 Ohio St. Big 10 Big 10 71 2 1 99% 70% 8%
25 TCU Big 12 Big 12 71 3 0 38% 3% 3%
26 Utah PAC 12 PAC 12 70 3 0 >99% 84% 9%
27 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 69 3 0 41% 5% 3%
28 Michigan St. Big 10 Big 10 69 2 0 100% 98% 10%
29 Louisville ACC ACC 69 2 1 58% 9% 3%
30 UCLA PAC 12 PAC 12 69 2 1 99% 76% 7%
31 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 68 2 0 42% 6% 3%
32 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 66 3 0 12% 1% 1%
33 Illinois Big 10 Big 10 66 2 1 98% 59% 5%
34 Purdue Big 10 Big 10 66 2 1 98% 62% 4%
35 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 65 2 1 58% 12% 3%
36 Virginia Tech ACC ACC 65 3 0 62% 13% 3%
37 Duke ACC ACC 64 3 0 72% 19% 3%
38 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 63 1 0 75% 23% 3%
39 Texas Tech Big 12 Big 12 63 2 0 61% 8% 2%
40 South Carolina SEC SEC 63 2 1 66% 11% 2%
41 Eastern MichiganE. Michigan MAC MAC 62 2 0 61% 10% 2%
42 Toledo MAC MAC 61 3 0 13% <1% 1%
43 Florida SEC SEC 58 1 1 78% 22% 1%
44 Indiana Big 10 Big 10 58 1 1 91% 34% 1%
45 N.C. State ACC ACC 57 2 1 71% 18% 1%
46 Arizona PAC 12 PAC 12 57 2 1 96% 50% 1%
47 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 57 2 1 36% 4% 1%
48 Florida St. ACC ACC 56 1 1 65% 13% 1%
49 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 56 2 1 5% <1% <1%
50 Stanford PAC 12 PAC 12 56 1 2 81% 17% 1%
51 Iowa St. Big 12 Big 12 55 2 1 4% <1% <1%
52 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10 Big 10 55 2 1 98% 62% 1%
53 Ole Miss SEC SEC 54 2 1 67% 13% 1%
54 TennesseeTenn. SEC SEC 53 2 1 55% 6% <1%
55 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 53 2 1 39% 5% <1%
56 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 52 2 0 2% <1% <1%
57 LSU SEC SEC 52 2 1 33% 2% <1%
58 Ball State MAC MAC 51 2 1 3% <1% <1%
59 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 2 1 3% <1% <1%
60 Syracuse ACC ACC 51 2 1 49% 7% <1%
61 Texas A&M SEC SEC 51 2 1 41% 3% <1%
62 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 51 2 1 2% <1% <1%
63 Auburn SEC SEC 51 2 1 41% 3% <1%
64 Virginia ACC ACC 50 2 1 33% 3% <1%
65 Kansas St. Big 12 Big 12 50 2 1 1% <1% <1%
66 West Virginia Big 12 Big 12 49 2 1 1% <1% <1%
67 Central MichiganC. Michigan MAC MAC 48 2 1 7% <1% <1%
68 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 48 2 1 1% <1% <1%
69 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 48 2 1 1% <1% <1%
70 Arizona St. PAC 12 PAC 12 48 1 2 59% 8% <1%
71 Northern IllinoisN. Illinois MAC MAC 48 2 1 4% <1% <1%
72 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 47 2 1 30% 2% <1%
73 Boston College ACC ACC 47 1 2 26% 1% <1%
74 Ohio MAC MAC 47 2 1 1% <1% <1%
75 Nebraska Big 10 Big 10 47 1 2 73% 13% <1%
76 North Carolina ACC ACC 47 1 2 9% <1% <1%
77 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 46 1 1 9% <1% <1%
78 Appalachian St.App. St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 46 2 1 <1% X <1%
79 UAB Conference USA Conf. USA 46 2 1 <1% <1% <1%
80 Texas Big 12 Big 12 45 1 2 1% <1% <1%
81 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 45 2 2 <1% X <1%
82 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 45 1 2 <1% <1% <1%
83 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 45 1 2 14% <1% <1%
84 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 45 2 1 <1% <1% <1%
85 Rutgers Big 10 Big 10 43 1 2 71% 15% <1%
86 Miami ACC ACC 43 1 1 22% 1% <1%
87 Arkansas SEC SEC 43 1 1 43% 3% <1%
88 Troy Sunbelt Sunbelt 43 2 1 <1% <1% <1%
89 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 43 1 2 6% <1% <1%
90 Western MichiganW. Michigan MAC MAC 42 1 2 <1% X <1%
91 Georgia Tech ACC ACC 42 1 1 44% 4% <1%
92 Oregon St. PAC 12 PAC 12 41 1 3 11% <1% <1%
93 ConnecticutConnect. American Athletic Am. Athletic 41 1 1 21% 1% <1%
94 Pittsburgh ACC ACC 41 1 2 4% <1% <1%
95 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 39 2 1 <1% <1% <1%
96 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 39 1 1 <1% <1% <1%
97 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 39 1 2 <1% X <1%
98 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 39 1 2 <1% X <1%
99 Kent State MAC MAC 38 1 2 <1% X <1%
100 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 37 1 2 <1% X <1%
101 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 37 1 2 <1% X <1%
102 Missouri SEC SEC 36 1 2 10% <1% <1%
103 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 36 1 2 <1% X <1%
104 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 36 1 2 <1% X <1%
105 Buffalo MAC MAC 36 1 2 <1% X <1%
106 Kansas Big 12 Big 12 34 1 2 <1% <1% <1%
107 Akron MAC MAC 33 1 2 <1% X <1%
108 Miami OH MAC MAC 32 1 2 <1% X <1%
109 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 32 1 1 <1% <1% <1%
110 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 31 1 2 <1% <1% <1%
111 Coastal CarolinaC. Carolina Sunbelt Sunbelt 31 1 1 <1% <1% <1%
112 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 30 1 3 X X X
113 Arkansas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 30 1 1 <1% <1% <1%
114 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 29 1 3 <1% X <1%
115 South Alabama Sunbelt Sunbelt 28 1 2 X X X
116 New Mexico St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 28 1 2 <1% X <1%
117 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 28 1 2 <1% X <1%
118 Texas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 28 1 2 X X X
119 UL Lafayette Sunbelt Sunbelt 25 1 2 <1% X <1%
120 LA Monroe Sunbelt Sunbelt 22 0 2 <1% X <1%
121 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 20 0 3 X X X
122 Idaho Sunbelt Sunbelt 19 1 2 <1% X <1%
123 Baylor Big 12 Big 12 19 0 3 <1% X <1%
124 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 17 0 3 X X X
125 Bowling Green MAC MAC 15 0 3 X X X
126 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 14 0 3 X X X
127 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 11 0 3 X X X
128 Georgia St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 11 0 2 <1% X <1%
129 Ga. Southern Sunbelt Sunbelt 9 0 2 <1% X <1%
130 MassachusettsMass. NCAA IndependentsInd. 8 0 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot