Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | MWP | Record | College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Win Out | Lose 1 More | Current | ||||
| 1 | Georgia | SECSEC | 95 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 71% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 92 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 72% |
| 3 | Miami | ACCACC | 93 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| 4 | Ohio St. | Big 10Big 10 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| 5 | Indiana | Big 10Big 10 | 92 | 6 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 60% |
| 6 | Alabama | SECSEC | 89 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 94% | 53% |
| 7 | Texas | SECSEC | 90 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| 8 | BYU | Big 12Big 12 | 87 | 5 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 49% |
| 9 | Ole Miss | SECSEC | 87 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 45% |
| 10 | Texas Tech | Big 12Big 12 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 98% | 41% |
| 11 | Utah | Big 12Big 12 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 42% |
| 12 | UCLA | Big 10Big 10 | 83 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 86% | 39% |
| 13 | Missouri | SECSEC | 84 | 5 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 36% |
| 14 | Tennessee | SECSEC | 82 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 99% | 32% |
| 15 | Kentucky | SECSEC | 82 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 90% | 30% |
| 16 | Mississippi St.Miss. St. | SECSEC | 81 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 94% | 28% |
| 17 | Iowa | Big 10Big 10 | 81 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 94% | 28% |
| 18 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12Big 12 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 98% | 26% |
| 19 | USC | Big 10Big 10 | 79 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 84% | 20% |
| 20 | Houston | Big 12Big 12 | 78 | 5 | 1 | 99% | 65% | 21% |
| 21 | Wake Forest | ACCACC | 75 | 5 | 1 | 99% | 43% | 23% |
| 22 | LSU | SECSEC | 75 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 94% | 17% |
| 23 | Boise State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 73 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 29% |
| 24 | SMU | ACCACC | 74 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 96% | 18% |
| 25 | NorthwesternN. Western | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 73% | 14% |
| 26 | Nebraska | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 5 | 1 | 97% | 35% | 10% |
| 27 | Oklahoma | SECSEC | 72 | 3 | 2 | >99% | 97% | 15% |
| 28 | Florida | SECSEC | 72 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 82% | 11% |
| 29 | Pittsburgh | ACCACC | 72 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 44% | 13% |
| 30 | Baylor | Big 12Big 12 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 92% | 15% |
| 31 | James Madison | SunbeltSunbelt | 72 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 23% |
| 32 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 84% | 14% |
| 33 | Arizona | Big 12Big 12 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 97% | 38% | 11% |
| 34 | Oregon | Big 10Big 10 | 71 | 3 | 2 | >99% | 59% | 11% |
| 35 | UTSA | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 69 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 23% |
| 36 | Cincinnati | Big 12Big 12 | 69 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 84% | 10% |
| 37 | Clemson | ACCACC | 67 | 3 | 2 | 58% | 10% | 5% |
| 38 | Duke | ACCACC | 67 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 75% | 8% |
| 39 | Auburn | SECSEC | 64 | 3 | 2 | 99% | 52% | 3% |
| 40 | North Carolina | ACCACC | 63 | 3 | 2 | 83% | 15% | 4% |
| 41 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 63 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 55% | 3% |
| 42 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 94% | 26% | 3% |
| 43 | South Carolina | SECSEC | 61 | 3 | 3 | 63% | 3% | 1% |
| 44 | North Dakota St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 60 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 45 | Texas A&M | SECSEC | 58 | 3 | 3 | 38% | 1% | <1% |
| 46 | Virginia Tech | ACCACC | 58 | 4 | 2 | 68% | 5% | 1% |
| 47 | Florida Atlantic | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 57 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 7% |
| 48 | Oregon St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 49 | Memphis | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 55 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 50 | North Texas | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 55 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 51 | New Mexico | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 52 | Purdue | Big 10Big 10 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 28% | <1% | <1% |
| 53 | UNLV | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 54 | UCF | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 55 | Vanderbilt | SECSEC | 55 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 2% | <1% |
| 56 | Fresno State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 57 | Washington | Big 10Big 10 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 58 | Ohio | MACMAC | 54 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 59 | Louisville | ACCACC | 53 | 3 | 3 | 37% | 9% | 1% |
| 60 | Iowa St. | Big 12Big 12 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 45% | 2% | <1% |
| 61 | Kansas St. | Big 12Big 12 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 17% | 1% | <1% |
| 62 | California | ACCACC | 53 | 3 | 3 | 99% | 29% | 3% |
| 63 | Air Force | Mountain WestMntn West | 53 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 64 | Liberty | Conference USAConf. USA | 53 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 65 | Penn St. | Big 10Big 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 66 | Virginia | ACCACC | 52 | 4 | 2 | 99% | 27% | 2% |
| 67 | Arizona St. | Big 12Big 12 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 98% | 35% | 1% |
| 68 | Illinois | Big 10Big 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 39% | 1% | <1% |
| 69 | South Alabama | SunbeltSunbelt | 51 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 70 | Western Michigan | MACMAC | 51 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 71 | Louisiana Tech | SunbeltSunbelt | 51 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 72 | Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 50 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 73 | Florida St. | ACCACC | 50 | 3 | 3 | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 74 | Colorado | Big 12Big 12 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 53% | 4% | <1% |
| 75 | South Florida | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 50 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 76 | West Virginia | Big 12Big 12 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 77 | UL Lafayette | SunbeltSunbelt | 48 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 78 | N.C. State | ACCACC | 48 | 3 | 3 | 41% | 1% | 1% |
| 79 | Michigan St. | Big 10Big 10 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 1% | X | <1% |
| 80 | Georgia St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 47 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 81 | Stanford | ACCACC | 47 | 2 | 4 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 82 | Texas St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 83 | Tulane | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 46 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 84 | Arkansas | SECSEC | 46 | 2 | 4 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 85 | Black Knights | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 45 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 86 | Maryland | Big 10Big 10 | 44 | 2 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 87 | Georgia Tech | ACCACC | 43 | 2 | 3 | 76% | 20% | <1% |
| 88 | Kansas | Big 12Big 12 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 31% | 1% | <1% |
| 89 | Boston College | ACCACC | 42 | 2 | 3 | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| 90 | Toledo | MACMAC | 42 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 91 | TCU | Big 12Big 12 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 48% | 1% | <1% |
| 92 | UAB | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 41 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 93 | Eastern Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 94 | Syracuse | ACCACC | 40 | 2 | 3 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 95 | Central Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 96 | Appalachian St.App. St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 40 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 97 | Ga. Southern | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 98 | Miami OH | MACMAC | 39 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 99 | Troy | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 100 | East Carolina | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 38 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 101 | Tulsa | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 38 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 102 | San Diego State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 103 | San José State | Mountain WestMntn West | 37 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 104 | UMass | MACMAC | 36 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 105 | Navy | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 35 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 106 | Florida Intl. | Conference USAConf. USA | 34 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 107 | Marshall | SunbeltSunbelt | 34 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 108 | Buffalo | MACMAC | 33 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 109 | Colorado St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 110 | W. Kentucky | Conference USAConf. USA | 32 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 111 | UConn | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 31 | 3 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 112 | Utah St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 113 | Middle Tenn. St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 30 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 114 | Kent State | MACMAC | 29 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 115 | Rutgers | Big 10Big 10 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| 116 | Wyoming | Mountain WestMntn West | 26 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 117 | Nevada | Mountain WestMntn West | 26 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 118 | Bowling Green | MACMAC | 24 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 119 | Old Dominion | SunbeltSunbelt | 23 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 120 | Temple | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 23 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 121 | Rice | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 23 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 122 | Arkansas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 21 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 123 | Delaware | Conference USAConf. USA | 20 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 124 | Missouri St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 19 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 125 | Ball State | MACMAC | 18 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 126 | Washington St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 127 | Akron | MACMAC | 18 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 128 | New Mexico St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 18 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 129 | Coastal Carolina | SunbeltSunbelt | 17 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 130 | UTEP | Mountain WestMntn West | 16 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 131 | Southern Miss | SunbeltSunbelt | 15 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 132 | Sam Houston | Conference USAConf. USA | 12 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 133 | Hawaii | Mountain WestMntn West | 11 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 134 | Sacramento St. | MACMAC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 135 | Northern Illinois | Mountain WestMntn West | 9 | 0 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 136 | Kennesaw St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 8 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 137 | LA Monroe | SunbeltSunbelt | 7 | 0 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 138 | Charlotte | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 4 | 0 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |