PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 29 10:00 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. New Click on a team's probability for more detail information. New

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 LSU SECSEC 122 13 0 - - 100%
2 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 119 13 0 - - 100%
3 Clemson ACCACC 116 13 0 - - 100%
4 Oklahoma Big 12Big 12 114 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Georgia SECSEC 110 11 2 - - X
6 Oregon PAC 12PAC 12 107 11 2 - - X
7 Baylor Big 12Big 12 106 11 2 - - X
8 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 105 10 3 - - X
9 Florida SECSEC 103 10 2 - - X
10 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 101 10 2 - - X
11 Utah PAC 12PAC 12 98 11 2 - - X
12 Auburn SECSEC 98 9 3 - - X
13 Alabama SECSEC 96 10 2 - - X
14 Michigan Big 10Big 10 94 9 3 - - X
15 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 92 10 2 - - X
16 Iowa Big 10Big 10 91 9 3 - - X
17 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 88 12 1 - - X
18 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 87 10 2 - - X
19 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 85 12 1 - - X
20 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 83 12 1 - - X
21 Cincinnati American AthleticAm. Athletic 82 10 3 - - X
22 USC PAC 12PAC 12 80 8 4 - - X
23 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 78 9 2 - - X
24 Virginia ACCACC 77 9 4 - - X
25 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 76 8 4 - - X
26 UCF American AthleticAm. Athletic 70 9 3 - - X
27 SMU American AthleticAm. Athletic 70 10 2 - - X
28 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 70 10 2 - - X
29 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 68 10 3 - - X
30 Florida Atlantic Conference USAConf. USA 68 10 3 - - X
31 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 67 8 4 - - X
32 Texas Big 12Big 12 67 7 5 - - X
33 Indiana Big 10Big 10 65 8 4 - - X
34 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 8 4 - - X
35 Texas A&M SECSEC 63 7 5 - - X
36 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 63 7 5 - - X
37 Wake Forest ACCACC 63 8 4 - - X
38 Louisville ACCACC 62 7 5 - - X
39 Washington PAC 12PAC 12 61 7 5 - - X
40 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 61 9 3 - - X
41 Arizona St. PAC 12PAC 12 60 7 5 - - X
42 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 60 7 5 - - X
43 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 60 6 6 - - X
44 Tennessee SECSEC 59 7 5 - - X
45 California PAC 12PAC 12 59 7 5 - - X
46 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 58 9 5 - - X
47 Virginia Tech ACCACC 58 8 4 - - X
48 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 57 7 5 - - X
49 Miami OH MACMAC 57 8 5 - - X
50 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 56 6 6 - - X
51 Marshall Conference USAConf. USA 56 8 4 - - X
52 Pittsburgh ACCACC 56 7 5 - - X
53 Florida St. ACCACC 56 6 6 - - X
54 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 55 7 5 - - X
55 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 53 6 6 - - X
56 Kentucky SECSEC 53 7 5 - - X
57 North Carolina ACCACC 51 6 6 - - X
58 Boston College ACCACC 51 6 6 - - X
59 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 51 7 5 - - X
60 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 7 5 - - X
61 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 50 8 4 - - X
62 TCU Big 12Big 12 49 5 7 - - X
63 Washington St. PAC 12PAC 12 48 6 6 - - X
64 Miami ACCACC 48 6 6 - - X
65 Colorado PAC 12PAC 12 48 5 7 - - X
66 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 47 9 3 - - X
67 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 47 5 7 - - X
68 Oregon St. PAC 12PAC 12 46 5 7 - - X
69 Illinois Big 10Big 10 46 6 6 - - X
70 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 46 7 5 - - X
71 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 4 8 - - X
72 UCLA PAC 12PAC 12 46 4 8 - - X
73 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 45 7 5 - - X
74 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 45 5 7 - - X
75 Central Michigan MACMAC 44 8 5 - - X
76 Buffalo MACMAC 44 7 5 - - X
77 South Carolina SECSEC 44 4 8 - - X
78 Missouri SECSEC 44 6 6 - - X
79 Western Michigan MACMAC 43 7 5 - - X
80 UAB Conference USAConf. USA 43 9 4 - - X
81 Southern Miss Conference USAConf. USA 43 7 5 - - X
82 Houston American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 4 8 - - X
83 Charlotte Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 5 - - X
84 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 4 8 - - X
85 Duke ACCACC 41 5 7 - - X
86 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 40 5 7 - - X
87 Stanford PAC 12PAC 12 40 4 8 - - X
88 Kent State MACMAC 40 6 6 - - X
89 Syracuse ACCACC 39 5 7 - - X
90 Purdue Big 10Big 10 39 4 8 - - X
91 Arizona PAC 12PAC 12 37 4 8 - - X
92 Ole Miss SECSEC 36 4 8 - - X
93 Ohio MACMAC 35 6 6 - - X
94 Maryland Big 10Big 10 35 3 9 - - X
95 Liberty NCAA IndependentsInd. 35 7 5 - - X
96 Toledo MACMAC 34 6 6 - - X
97 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 33 4 8 - - X
98 San Jose State Mountain WestMntn West 32 5 7 - - X
99 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 32 6 6 - - X
100 Ball State MACMAC 30 5 7 - - X
101 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 30 3 9 - - X
102 Kansas Big 12Big 12 29 3 9 - - X
103 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 29 6 6 - - X
104 N.C. State ACCACC 29 4 8 - - X
105 Georgia Tech ACCACC 29 3 9 - - X
106 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 28 4 8 - - X
107 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 28 5 7 - - X
108 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 28 5 7 - - X
109 Northern Illinois MACMAC 27 5 7 - - X
110 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 27 5 7 - - X
111 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 27 4 8 - - X
112 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 26 2 10 - - X
113 Vanderbilt SECSEC 26 3 9 - - X
114 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 25 4 8 - - X
115 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 25 4 8 - - X
116 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 23 4 8 - - X
117 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 21 3 9 - - X
118 Arkansas SECSEC 18 2 10 - - X
119 North Texas Conference USAConf. USA 16 4 8 - - X
120 UTSA Conference USAConf. USA 16 4 8 - - X
121 Bowling Green MACMAC 15 3 9 - - X
122 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 15 2 10 - - X
123 ConnecticutConnect. American AthleticAm. Athletic 14 2 10 - - X
124 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 14 2 10 - - X
125 Rice Conference USAConf. USA 13 3 9 - - X
126 New Mexico St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 3 2 10 - - X
127 Old Dominion Conference USAConf. USA -1 1 11 - - X
128 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA -13 1 11 - - X
129 MassachusettsMass. NCAA IndependentsInd. -14 1 11 - - X
130 Akron MACMAC -16 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot