Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | MWP | Record | College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Win Out | Lose 1 More | Current | ||||
| 1 | Georgia | SECSEC | 95 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 69% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 94 | 6 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 76% |
| 3 | Miami | ACCACC | 93 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| 4 | Ohio St. | Big 10Big 10 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 59% |
| 5 | Indiana | Big 10Big 10 | 91 | 6 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 57% |
| 6 | Alabama | SECSEC | 90 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 95% | 55% |
| 7 | Texas | SECSEC | 89 | 4 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 54% |
| 8 | BYU | Big 12Big 12 | 88 | 5 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 50% |
| 9 | Ole Miss | SECSEC | 87 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 45% |
| 10 | Texas Tech | Big 12Big 12 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 44% |
| 11 | Utah | Big 12Big 12 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 41% |
| 12 | UCLA | Big 10Big 10 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 88% | 43% |
| 13 | Missouri | SECSEC | 83 | 5 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 35% |
| 14 | Tennessee | SECSEC | 82 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 99% | 33% |
| 15 | Kentucky | SECSEC | 81 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 89% | 30% |
| 16 | Mississippi St.Miss. St. | SECSEC | 81 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 94% | 27% |
| 17 | Iowa | Big 10Big 10 | 80 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 93% | 26% |
| 18 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12Big 12 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 98% | 26% |
| 19 | USC | Big 10Big 10 | 78 | 6 | 1 | >99% | 78% | 18% |
| 20 | Houston | Big 12Big 12 | 77 | 5 | 1 | 99% | 61% | 20% |
| 21 | Wake Forest | ACCACC | 76 | 5 | 1 | 99% | 45% | 24% |
| 22 | LSU | SECSEC | 75 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 93% | 17% |
| 23 | Boise State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 29% |
| 24 | SMU | ACCACC | 73 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 96% | 17% |
| 25 | NorthwesternN. Western | Big 10Big 10 | 72 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 70% | 13% |
| 26 | Pittsburgh | ACCACC | 72 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 45% | 13% |
| 27 | Nebraska | Big 10Big 10 | 72 | 5 | 1 | 94% | 29% | 10% |
| 28 | Florida | SECSEC | 72 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 81% | 11% |
| 29 | Oklahoma | SECSEC | 72 | 3 | 2 | >99% | 96% | 15% |
| 30 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 72 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 85% | 14% |
| 31 | James Madison | SunbeltSunbelt | 72 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 22% |
| 32 | Baylor | Big 12Big 12 | 72 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 93% | 15% |
| 33 | Arizona | Big 12Big 12 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 97% | 37% | 10% |
| 34 | Oregon | Big 10Big 10 | 71 | 3 | 2 | 99% | 52% | 11% |
| 35 | UTSA | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 69 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 20% |
| 36 | Cincinnati | Big 12Big 12 | 69 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 83% | 10% |
| 37 | Clemson | ACCACC | 66 | 3 | 2 | 56% | 10% | 5% |
| 38 | Duke | ACCACC | 66 | 4 | 1 | >99% | 73% | 8% |
| 39 | Auburn | SECSEC | 64 | 3 | 2 | 99% | 52% | 3% |
| 40 | North Carolina | ACCACC | 64 | 3 | 2 | 84% | 16% | 4% |
| 41 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 63 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 53% | 4% |
| 42 | Memphis | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 63 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 7% |
| 43 | Purdue | Big 10Big 10 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 90% | 20% | 3% |
| 44 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 93% | 23% | 3% |
| 45 | South Carolina | SECSEC | 61 | 3 | 3 | 61% | 3% | 1% |
| 46 | North Dakota St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 60 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 47 | Virginia Tech | ACCACC | 59 | 4 | 2 | 68% | 5% | 1% |
| 48 | Florida Atlantic | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 58 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 7% |
| 49 | Texas A&M | SECSEC | 57 | 3 | 3 | 32% | 1% | <1% |
| 50 | Oregon St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 51 | Vanderbilt | SECSEC | 55 | 3 | 3 | 55% | 3% | <1% |
| 52 | UNLV | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 53 | Liberty | Conference USAConf. USA | 55 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 54 | UCF | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 25% | 1% | <1% |
| 55 | New Mexico | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 56 | Fresno State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 57 | North Texas | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 54 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 58 | Louisville | ACCACC | 54 | 3 | 3 | 36% | 9% | 1% |
| 59 | Iowa St. | Big 12Big 12 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 45% | 2% | <1% |
| 60 | California | ACCACC | 53 | 3 | 3 | 99% | 29% | 4% |
| 61 | Virginia | ACCACC | 53 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 27% | 3% |
| 62 | Ohio | MACMAC | 53 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 63 | Air Force | Mountain WestMntn West | 52 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 64 | Penn St. | Big 10Big 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 65 | Illinois | Big 10Big 10 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 41% | 1% | <1% |
| 66 | Arizona St. | Big 12Big 12 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 98% | 34% | 1% |
| 67 | Kansas St. | Big 12Big 12 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 16% | <1% | <1% |
| 68 | Western Michigan | MACMAC | 51 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 69 | Louisiana Tech | SunbeltSunbelt | 51 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 70 | South Florida | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 50 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 71 | Florida St. | ACCACC | 50 | 3 | 3 | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 72 | Colorado | Big 12Big 12 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 51% | 4% | <1% |
| 73 | South Alabama | SunbeltSunbelt | 49 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 74 | Georgia St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 49 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 75 | West Virginia | Big 12Big 12 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 76 | N.C. State | ACCACC | 48 | 3 | 3 | 40% | 1% | 1% |
| 77 | Stanford | ACCACC | 48 | 2 | 4 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 78 | Michigan St. | Big 10Big 10 | 47 | 2 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 79 | UL Lafayette | SunbeltSunbelt | 47 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 80 | Washington | Big 10Big 10 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1% | X | <1% |
| 81 | Arkansas | SECSEC | 46 | 2 | 4 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 82 | East Carolina | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 45 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 83 | Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 45 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 84 | Maryland | Big 10Big 10 | 44 | 2 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 85 | Black Knights | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 44 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 86 | Georgia Tech | ACCACC | 43 | 2 | 3 | 76% | 19% | <1% |
| 87 | Boston College | ACCACC | 42 | 2 | 3 | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| 88 | Toledo | MACMAC | 42 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 89 | Kansas | Big 12Big 12 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 30% | 1% | <1% |
| 90 | TCU | Big 12Big 12 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 47% | 1% | <1% |
| 91 | Syracuse | ACCACC | 41 | 2 | 3 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 92 | Texas St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 93 | Eastern Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 94 | Central Michigan | MACMAC | 40 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 95 | Florida Intl. | Conference USAConf. USA | 40 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 96 | Troy | SunbeltSunbelt | 39 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 97 | Miami OH | MACMAC | 39 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 98 | Tulsa | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 38 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 99 | Colorado St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 100 | Tulane | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 37 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 101 | San Diego State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 102 | San José State | Mountain WestMntn West | 37 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 103 | Appalachian St.App. St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 37 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 104 | UMass | MACMAC | 36 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 105 | UAB | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 36 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 106 | Navy | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 34 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 107 | Buffalo | MACMAC | 34 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 108 | Marshall | SunbeltSunbelt | 33 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 109 | Ga. Southern | SunbeltSunbelt | 33 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 110 | UConn | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 31 | 3 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 111 | Old Dominion | SunbeltSunbelt | 30 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 112 | Utah St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 113 | Kent State | MACMAC | 29 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 114 | Rutgers | Big 10Big 10 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 12% | <1% | <1% |
| 115 | Delaware | Conference USAConf. USA | 27 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 116 | Wyoming | Mountain WestMntn West | 26 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 117 | W. Kentucky | Conference USAConf. USA | 25 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 118 | Bowling Green | MACMAC | 24 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 119 | Rice | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 24 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 120 | Nevada | Mountain WestMntn West | 24 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 121 | Temple | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 23 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 122 | Middle Tenn. St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 23 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 123 | Arkansas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 23 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 124 | Coastal Carolina | SunbeltSunbelt | 22 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 125 | Sam Houston | Conference USAConf. USA | 18 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 126 | Akron | MACMAC | 18 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 127 | Ball State | MACMAC | 18 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 128 | New Mexico St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 17 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 129 | Washington St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 130 | UTEP | Mountain WestMntn West | 16 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 131 | Southern Miss | SunbeltSunbelt | 14 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 132 | Kennesaw St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 13 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 133 | Missouri St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 12 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 134 | Hawaii | Mountain WestMntn West | 11 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 135 | Sacramento St. | MACMAC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 136 | Northern Illinois | Mountain WestMntn West | 9 | 0 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 137 | LA Monroe | SunbeltSunbelt | 6 | 0 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 138 | Charlotte | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 4 | 0 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |