PlayoffStatus.com

Thu Nov 16 11:15 pm

NCAA Football - Week 12 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC SEC 102 10 0 >99% 33% 58%
2 Clemson ACC ACC 101 9 1 >99% 78% 68%
3 Miami ACC ACC 100 9 0 >99% 44% 60%
4 Oklahoma Big 12 Big 12 100 9 1 >99% 46% 61%
 
5 Wisconsin Big 10 Big 10 99 10 0 >99% 34% 50%
6 Auburn SEC SEC 98 8 2 >99% 32% 38%
7 Georgia SEC SEC 94 9 1 82% 4% 26%
8 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 92 8 2 25% <1% 11%
9 Ohio St. Big 10 Big 10 92 8 2 91% <1% 19%
10 Penn St. Big 10 Big 10 92 8 2 4% <1% 2%
11 USC PAC 12 PAC 12 91 9 2 12% <1% 5%
12 TCU Big 12 Big 12 86 8 2 1% <1% <1%
13 Washington St. PAC 12 PAC 12 86 9 2 7% <1% 1%
14 Oklahoma St. Big 12 Big 12 85 8 2 <1% <1% <1%
15 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 85 9 0 <1% <1% <1%
16 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SEC SEC 83 7 3 <1% X <1%
17 Washington PAC 12 PAC 12 80 8 2 <1% <1% <1%
18 Michigan St. Big 10 Big 10 80 7 3 <1% X <1%
19 N.C. State ACC ACC 80 7 3 X X X
20 LSU SEC SEC 80 7 3 <1% X <1%
21 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 78 8 1 <1% <1% <1%
22 Stanford PAC 12 PAC 12 78 7 3 <1% <1% <1%
23 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10 Big 10 78 7 3 <1% X <1%
24 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 76 8 2 <1% <1% <1%
25 South Carolina SEC SEC 74 7 3 X X X
26 Iowa Big 10 Big 10 74 6 4 X X X
27 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 74 8 2 <1% X <1%
28 Virginia Tech ACC ACC 71 7 3 X X X
29 Toledo MAC MAC 71 9 2 X X X
30 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 70 9 1 <1% X <1%
31 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 70 8 2 X X X
32 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 70 6 3 <1% X <1%
33 Wake Forest ACC ACC 69 6 4 X X X
34 Boston College ACC ACC 68 5 5 X X X
35 Arizona PAC 12 PAC 12 67 7 3 X X X
36 Kentucky SEC SEC 67 7 3 X X X
37 West Virginia Big 12 Big 12 64 7 3 <1% X <1%
38 Iowa St. Big 12 Big 12 64 6 4 X X X
39 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 63 6 3 X X X
40 Louisville ACC ACC 63 6 4 X X X
41 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 63 8 2 X X X
42 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 63 7 3 X X X
43 Georgia Tech ACC ACC 63 5 4 X X X
44 Texas A&M SEC SEC 62 6 4 X X X
45 UCLA PAC 12 PAC 12 61 5 5 X X X
46 Northern IllinoisN. Illinois MAC MAC 60 8 3 X X X
47 Arizona St. PAC 12 PAC 12 60 5 5 X X X
48 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 59 6 4 X X X
49 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 58 7 3 X X X
50 Virginia ACC ACC 58 6 4 X X X
51 Oregon PAC 12 PAC 12 58 5 5 X X X
52 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 58 7 3 X X X
53 Maryland Big 10 Big 10 57 4 6 X X X
54 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 57 7 3 X X X
55 Troy Sunbelt Sunbelt 56 8 2 X X X
56 Florida St. ACC ACC 55 3 6 X X X
57 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 54 7 3 X X X
58 California PAC 12 PAC 12 54 5 5 X X X
59 Utah PAC 12 PAC 12 53 5 5 X X X
60 Minnesota Big 10 Big 10 53 5 5 X X X
61 Ohio MAC MAC 53 8 3 X X X
62 Ole Miss SEC SEC 52 5 5 X X X
63 Texas Big 12 Big 12 52 5 5 X X X
64 Syracuse ACC ACC 51 4 6 X X X
65 Central MichiganC. Michigan MAC MAC 51 7 4 X X X
66 Missouri SEC SEC 50 5 5 X X X
67 Nebraska Big 10 Big 10 50 4 6 X X X
68 Purdue Big 10 Big 10 50 4 6 X X X
69 Texas Tech Big 12 Big 12 50 5 5 X X X
70 Indiana Big 10 Big 10 50 4 6 X X X
71 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 49 6 3 X X X
72 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 5 5 X X X
73 Akron MAC MAC 48 6 5 X X X
74 Florida SEC SEC 47 3 6 X X X
75 Rutgers Big 10 Big 10 47 4 6 X X X
76 Colorado PAC 12 PAC 12 46 5 6 X X X
77 TennesseeTenn. SEC SEC 46 4 6 X X X
78 Western MichiganW. Michigan MAC MAC 46 6 5 X X X
79 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 45 6 5 X X X
80 Arkansas SEC SEC 45 4 6 X X X
81 Vanderbilt SEC SEC 44 4 6 X X X
82 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 43 5 5 X X X
83 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 43 4 6 X X X
84 Pittsburgh ACC ACC 42 4 6 X X X
85 Duke ACC ACC 42 4 6 X X X
86 Kansas St. Big 12 Big 12 41 5 5 X X X
87 UAB Conference USA Conf. USA 40 7 3 X X X
88 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 40 6 4 X X X
89 Georgia St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 38 6 3 X X X
90 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 38 4 6 X X X
91 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 36 3 7 X X X
92 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 36 5 5 X X X
93 Arkansas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 34 5 3 X X X
94 Buffalo MAC MAC 33 5 6 X X X
95 Appalachian St.App. St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 32 6 4 X X X
96 ConnecticutConnect. American Athletic Am. Athletic 32 3 7 X X X
97 Eastern MichiganE. Michigan MAC MAC 32 4 7 X X X
98 North Carolina ACC ACC 32 2 8 X X X
99 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 30 5 4 X X X
100 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 30 4 6 X X X
101 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 27 4 6 X X X
102 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 26 4 6 X X X
103 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 26 5 5 X X X
104 LA Monroe Sunbelt Sunbelt 26 4 5 X X X
105 Illinois Big 10 Big 10 26 2 8 X X X
106 Miami OH MAC MAC 26 4 7 X X X
107 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 26 3 8 X X X
108 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 25 3 7 X X X
109 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 25 2 9 X X X
110 South Alabama Sunbelt Sunbelt 25 4 6 X X X
111 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 23 2 8 X X X
112 UL Lafayette Sunbelt Sunbelt 23 4 5 X X X
113 Oregon St. PAC 12 PAC 12 23 1 9 X X X
114 New Mexico St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 22 4 5 X X X
115 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 19 2 8 X X X
116 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 17 3 7 X X X
117 Kent State MAC MAC 16 2 9 X X X
118 Bowling Green MAC MAC 15 2 9 X X X
119 Idaho Sunbelt Sunbelt 15 3 6 X X X
120 Kansas Big 12 Big 12 12 1 9 X X X
121 Baylor Big 12 Big 12 10 1 9 X X X
122 Ball State MAC MAC 9 2 9 X X X
123 MassachusettsMass. NCAA IndependentsInd. 8 3 7 X X X
124 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 5 1 9 X X X
125 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 2 1 10 X X X
126 Texas St. Sunbelt Sunbelt 0 2 8 X X X
127 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA -1 1 9 X X X
128 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA -3 0 10 X X X
129 Coastal CarolinaC. Carolina Sunbelt Sunbelt -9 1 9 X X X
130 Ga. Southern Sunbelt Sunbelt -10 0 9 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot