PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Oct 14 11:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 8 of 14

2025 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Semifinals Quarterfinals Round 1
Team W L
Ohio St. 6 0 9% 17% 32% 59% 75%
Indiana 6 0 8% 16% 30% 55% 72%
Texas A&M 6 0 8% 14% 27% 49% 63%
Ole Miss 6 0 8% 14% 26% 46% 60%
Miami 5 0 7% 14% 28% 53% 69%
Texas Tech 6 0 6% 11% 21% 42% 57%
Alabama 5 1 5% 10% 21% 41% 57%
Georgia Tech 6 0 4% 8% 16% 31% 45%
BYU 6 0 4% 7% 14% 25% 36%
Georgia 5 1 3% 7% 15% 32% 48%
LSU 5 1 3% 7% 15% 30% 44%
Oregon 5 1 3% 6% 14% 34% 53%
Tennessee 5 1 3% 6% 13% 28% 44%
Notre Dame 4 2 3% 5% 11% 25% 41%
Oklahoma 5 1 2% 5% 11% 23% 35%
Memphis 6 0 2% 5% 9% 16% 26%
Vanderbilt 5 1 2% 4% 9% 18% 29%
Virginia 5 1 2% 4% 8% 18% 29%
South Florida 5 1 2% 4% 7% 15% 25%
USC 5 1 2% 4% 7% 14% 22%
Tulane 5 1 2% 3% 5% 10% 20%
Missouri 5 1 1% 3% 8% 19% 31%
Cincinnati 5 1 1% 3% 6% 12% 21%
Navy 6 0 1% 3% 5% 10% 19%
Utah 5 1 1% 3% 5% 10% 17%
Texas 4 2 1% 2% 4% 11% 20%
Nebraska 5 1 1% 2% 4% 7% 12%
Washington 5 1 1% 2% 4% 7% 12%
Duke 4 2 1% 2% 3% 7% 14%
UNLV 6 0 1% 2% 3% 6% 13%
Michigan 4 2 1% 1% 3% 6% 10%
Louisville 4 1 1% 1% 2% 5% 8%
Houston 5 1 <1% 1% 2% 5% 9%
Arizona St. 4 2 <1% 1% 2% 4% 7%
North Texas 5 1 <1% 1% 2% 3% 7%
Illinois 5 2 <1% 1% 2% 3% 6%
Iowa St. 5 2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
James Madison 5 1 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 4 2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
SMU 4 2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
NorthwesternN. Western 4 2 <1% <1% 1% 1% 3%
Baylor 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
San Diego State 5 1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Arizona 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Boise State 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
California 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Iowa 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Minnesota 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
TCU 4 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Kansas 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Maryland 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Old Dominion 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Pittsburgh 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
East Carolina 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Temple 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Fresno State 5 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hawaii 5 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
W. Kentucky 5 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Appalachian St.App. St. 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kennesaw St. 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Louisiana Tech 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
N.C. State 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Southern Miss 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Troy 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UConn 4 2 X X X X X
Wake Forest 4 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Western Michigan 4 3 X X X X X
Arkansas St. 3 4 X X X X X
Auburn 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Black Knights 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Bowling Green 3 3 X X X X X
Buffalo 3 3 X X X X X
Central Michigan 3 3 X X X X X
Clemson 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Coastal Carolina 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Colorado 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Delaware 3 2 X X X X X
Florida Atlantic 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Florida Intl. 3 3 X X X X X
Florida St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. 3 3 X X X X X
Kansas St. 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
LA Monroe 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Liberty 3 4 X X X X X
Marshall 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Miami OH 3 3 X X X X X
Michigan St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Missouri St. 3 3 X X X X X
New Mexico 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
New Mexico St. 3 3 X X X X X
Ohio 3 3 X X X X X
Penn St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rice 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rutgers 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
South Carolina 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Syracuse 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Texas St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Toledo 3 3 X X X X X
UCF 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UTSA 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Utah St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Washington St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Wyoming 3 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Akron 2 5 X X X X X
Arkansas 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Ball State 2 4 X X X X X
Colorado St. 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Eastern Michigan 2 5 X X X X X
Florida 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Ga. Southern 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kent State 2 4 X X X X X
Kentucky 2 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
North Carolina 2 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Purdue 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
San José State 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Stanford 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Tulsa 2 4 X X X X X
UAB 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UCLA 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UL Lafayette 2 4 X X X X X
Virginia Tech 2 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
West Virginia 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Wisconsin 2 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Air Force 1 5 X X X X X
Boston College 1 5 X X X X X
Charlotte 1 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Georgia St. 1 5 X X X X X
Middle Tenn. St. 1 5 X X X X X
Nevada 1 5 X X X X X
Northern Illinois 1 5 X X X X X
Oklahoma St. 1 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
South Alabama 1 6 X X X X X
UTEP 1 5 X X X X X
Oregon St. 0 7 X X X X X
Sam Houston 0 6 X X X X X
UMass 0 6 X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot