How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Indiana | 9 | 0 | 14% | 25% | 47% | 84% | 95% |
| Ohio St. | 8 | 0 | 12% | 23% | 44% | 80% | 92% |
| Texas A&M | 8 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 37% | 65% | 80% |
| Alabama | 7 | 1 | 8% | 15% | 30% | 58% | 75% |
| BYU | 8 | 0 | 8% | 14% | 25% | 45% | 63% |
| Georgia | 7 | 1 | 7% | 15% | 31% | 63% | 83% |
| Ole Miss | 8 | 1 | 6% | 12% | 24% | 50% | 75% |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 4% | 9% | 20% | 49% | 71% |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 1 | 4% | 9% | 18% | 40% | 60% |
| Virginia | 8 | 1 | 4% | 9% | 18% | 37% | 57% |
| Louisville | 7 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 11% | 24% | 39% |
| Notre Dame | 6 | 2 | 2% | 5% | 12% | 26% | 45% |
| Texas | 7 | 2 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 32% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 33% |
| Georgia Tech | 8 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 15% | 29% |
| USC | 6 | 2 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 23% |
| Vanderbilt | 7 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 31% |
| Miami | 6 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 24% |
| North Texas | 8 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 23% |
| Memphis | 8 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 18% |
| James Madison | 7 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 16% |
| Michigan | 7 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 11% |
| South Florida | 6 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Utah | 7 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% |
| Missouri | 6 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 14% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 12% |
| Tulane | 6 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% |
| Navy | 7 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| San Diego State | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Duke | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| East Carolina | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Arizona St. | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| TCU | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| SMU | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Houston | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Iowa | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Boise State | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Southern Miss | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| W. Kentucky | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fresno State | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawaii | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Illinois | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Minnesota | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nebraska | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 6 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UNLV | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arizona | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas St. | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Baylor | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| California | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Central Michigan | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Coastal Carolina | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 5 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LSU | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami OH | 5 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Missouri St. | 5 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| N.C. State | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 5 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Temple | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wake Forest | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Auburn | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Black Knights | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Delaware | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida St. | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas St. | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Marshall | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Maryland | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rice | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rutgers | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Toledo | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCF | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTSA | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington St. | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wyoming | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Akron | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Clemson | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Atlantic | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ga. Southern | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kent State | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kentucky | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LA Monroe | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| North Carolina | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Penn St. | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San José State | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Carolina | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Stanford | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Syracuse | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas St. | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UAB | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCLA | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| West Virginia | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Air Force | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado St. | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Eastern Michigan | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Northern Illinois | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oregon St. | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Purdue | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Alabama | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tulsa | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTEP | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Boston College | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Charlotte | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Georgia St. | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma St. | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sam Houston | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |