How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Miami | 8 | 0 | 13% | 23% | 43% | 77% | 91% |
| Utah | 8 | 0 | 9% | 18% | 35% | 67% | 82% |
| UCLA | 8 | 0 | 9% | 17% | 32% | 59% | 76% |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 1 | 7% | 14% | 29% | 62% | 88% |
| Georgia | 7 | 1 | 6% | 14% | 30% | 64% | 85% |
| Indiana | 8 | 1 | 6% | 13% | 26% | 52% | 75% |
| Kentucky | 7 | 1 | 6% | 12% | 24% | 46% | 63% |
| BYU | 7 | 1 | 5% | 11% | 23% | 47% | 67% |
| Texas | 6 | 2 | 5% | 10% | 19% | 38% | 58% |
| Alabama | 6 | 2 | 4% | 9% | 18% | 39% | 63% |
| Ohio St. | 6 | 2 | 4% | 8% | 16% | 33% | 51% |
| Texas Tech | 7 | 1 | 3% | 7% | 13% | 28% | 43% |
| Ole Miss | 6 | 2 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 43% |
| Wake Forest | 7 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 26% | 46% |
| LSU | 6 | 2 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 33% |
| Boise State | 7 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 43% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 27% |
| New Mexico | 7 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 36% |
| Houston | 6 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 24% |
| Missouri | 6 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 17% |
| USC | 7 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% |
| UTSA | 7 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 14% |
| Iowa | 6 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% |
| Arizona | 6 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| South Carolina | 5 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Oregon | 5 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| SMU | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Duke | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| North Texas | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Florida | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Memphis | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Virginia Tech | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Louisville | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Oklahoma St. | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Louisiana Tech | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Baylor | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Minnesota | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Illinois | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| James Madison | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Dakota St. | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Air Force | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Florida | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Toledo | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Black Knights | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Clemson | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fresno State | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marshall | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Michigan | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Oregon St. | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UNLV | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arizona St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Auburn | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boston College | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Delaware | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| East Carolina | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas St. | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| N.C. State | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Carolina | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Penn St. | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San Diego State | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stanford | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Syracuse | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| TCU | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulane | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UAB | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UCF | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Virginia | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| California | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Central Michigan | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado St. | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida St. | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 3 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Purdue | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southern Miss | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| W. Kentucky | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia Tech | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Hawaii | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Maryland | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Navy | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 2 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rutgers | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sacramento St. | 2 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LA Monroe | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sam Houston | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington St. | 1 | 8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 0 | 8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |