How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| LSU | 3 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 15% | 27% | 35% |
| Ohio St. | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 14% | 28% | 39% |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 23% | 30% |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 12% | 22% | 29% |
| Ole Miss | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 12% | 20% | 27% |
| Penn St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 26% | 37% |
| Miami | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 26% | 36% |
| Georgia | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 25% | 35% |
| Oregon | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 12% | 24% | 34% |
| Auburn | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 20% |
| Iowa St. | 4 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 27% |
| Utah | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 18% | 26% |
| USC | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 21% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 20% |
| N.C. State | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 20% |
| Florida St. | 2 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 12% | 24% | 34% |
| Illinois | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 11% | 22% | 32% |
| Georgia Tech | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 24% |
| Indiana | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 24% |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 24% |
| Alabama | 2 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 26% |
| Houston | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 21% |
| TCU | 2 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 21% |
| Tulane | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 21% |
| Rutgers | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 20% |
| Missouri | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 19% |
| Arizona | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 14% | 20% |
| Maryland | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 20% |
| Nebraska | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 19% |
| Memphis | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 18% |
| Texas | 2 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 8% | 21% | 32% |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 17% | 25% |
| Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 22% |
| Navy | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 17% |
| California | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 16% |
| North Texas | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 16% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 6% | 17% | 27% |
| BYU | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 17% |
| Washington | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 17% |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| UCF | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 14% |
| Louisville | 2 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Notre Dame | 0 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 21% |
| Arizona St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Baylor | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% |
| UNLV | 3 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| Kansas | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Minnesota | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% |
| South Florida | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Utah St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Arkansas | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% |
| West Virginia | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| East Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Purdue | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Hawaii | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Iowa | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Kentucky | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Rice | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| SMU | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Virginia | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Fresno State | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Oklahoma St. | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Louisiana Tech | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| North Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% |
| Temple | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% |
| New Mexico | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| South Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Southern Miss | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Syracuse | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| UAB | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Wyoming | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Colorado | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Colorado St. | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Washington St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Florida Intl. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| New Mexico St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Old Dominion | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Texas St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Toledo | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| W. Kentucky | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Air Force | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Boise State | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Clemson | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Duke | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Florida | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| LA Monroe | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| San Diego State | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Stanford | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Delaware | 2 | 1 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ball State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Black Knights | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boston College | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| James Madison | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas St. | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marshall | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 1 | 2 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTSA | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 0 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Oregon St. | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sam Houston | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 0 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UCLA | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UMass | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |