PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Oct 20 11:15 pm

NCAA Football - Week 8 of 13

2021 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Playoff
Participate
Team W L
Georgia 7 0 20% 36% 60%
Cincinnati 6 0 12% 26% 54%
Oklahoma 7 0 11% 21% 44%
Michigan 6 0 9% 17% 31%
Alabama 6 1 8% 17% 39%
Ohio St. 5 1 7% 16% 36%
Oklahoma St. 6 0 7% 13% 23%
Penn St. 5 1 6% 13% 27%
Michigan St. 7 0 6% 11% 22%
Oregon 5 1 3% 8% 20%
Ole Miss 5 1 3% 6% 12%
Iowa 6 1 3% 5% 10%
Wake Forest 6 0 1% 3% 6%
Notre Dame 5 1 1% 2% 3%
Auburn 5 2 1% 1% 3%
N.C. State 5 1 1% 1% 3%
Texas A&M 5 2 1% 1% 3%
Baylor 6 1 <1% 1% 1%
Kentucky 6 1 <1% <1% 1%
SMU 6 0 <1% <1% 1%
UTSA 7 0 X X X
Air Force 6 1 <1% <1% <1%
Coastal Carolina 6 1 <1% <1% <1%
San Diego State 6 0 <1% <1% <1%
UTEP 6 1 X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 5 2 X X X
Arizona St. 5 2 X X X
BYU 5 2 X X X
Fresno State 5 2 X X X
Houston 5 1 X X X
Liberty 5 2 X X X
Nevada 5 1 <1% <1% <1%
Northern Illinois 5 2 X X X
Pittsburgh 5 1 <1% <1% <1%
Texas Tech 5 2 <1% <1% <1%
UAB 5 2 X X X
UCLA 5 2 X X X
UL Lafayette 5 1 X X X
Virginia 5 2 <1% <1% <1%
Western Michigan 5 2 X X X
Arkansas 4 3 X X X
Army 4 2 X X X
Ball State 4 3 X X X
Boston College 4 2 X X X
Central Michigan 4 3 X X X
Charlotte 4 2 X X X
Clemson 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
Eastern Michigan 4 3 X X X
Florida 4 3 X X X
Iowa St. 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
LSU 4 3 <1% <1% <1%
Marshall 4 3 X X X
Maryland 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
Memphis 4 3 X X X
Minnesota 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
North Carolina 4 3 X X X
Oregon St. 4 2 X X X
Purdue 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
South Alabama 4 2 X X X
South Carolina 4 3 X X X
Tennessee 4 3 X X X
Texas 4 3 <1% <1% <1%
Troy 4 3 X X X
Utah 4 2 <1% <1% <1%
Utah St. 4 2 X X X
Washington St. 4 3 X X X
Wyoming 4 2 X X X
Boise State 3 4 X X X
Buffalo 3 4 X X X
Colorado St. 3 3 X X X
Duke 3 4 X X X
East Carolina 3 3 X X X
Florida Atlantic 3 3 X X X
Georgia Tech 3 3 <1% <1% <1%
Hawaii 3 4 X X X
Kansas St. 3 3 X X X
Kent State 3 4 X X X
LA Monroe 3 4 X X X
Louisville 3 3 X X X
Miami OH 3 4 X X X
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 3 3 <1% <1% <1%
Missouri 3 4 X X X
Nebraska 3 5 X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 3 3 <1% <1% <1%
Rutgers 3 4 X X X
San José State 3 4 X X X
Stanford 3 4 X X X
Syracuse 3 4 X X X
TCU 3 3 <1% <1% <1%
Temple 3 3 X X X
Toledo 3 4 X X X
Tulsa 3 4 X X X
UCF 3 3 X X X
USC 3 3 X X X
Virginia Tech 3 3 X X X
Wisconsin 3 3 <1% <1% <1%
Akron 2 5 X X X
Bowling Green 2 5 X X X
Colorado 2 4 X X X
Florida Intl. 2 5 X X X
Florida St. 2 4 X X X
Ga. Southern 2 5 X X X
Georgia St. 2 4 X X X
Illinois 2 5 X X X
Indiana 2 4 X X X
Louisiana Tech 2 4 X X X
Miami 2 4 X X X
Middle Tenn. St. 2 4 X X X
New Mexico 2 5 X X X
Rice 2 4 X X X
Texas St. 2 4 X X X
Vanderbilt 2 5 X X X
W. Kentucky 2 4 X X X
Washington 2 4 X X X
West Virginia 2 4 X X X
Arkansas St. 1 5 X X X
California 1 5 X X X
Kansas 1 5 X X X
Navy 1 5 X X X
New Mexico St. 1 6 X X X
North Texas 1 5 X X X
Ohio 1 6 X X X
Old Dominion 1 6 X X X
South Florida 1 5 X X X
Southern Miss 1 6 X X X
Tulane 1 5 X X X
UConn 1 7 X X X
UMass 1 5 X X X
Arizona 0 6 X X X
UNLV 0 6 X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot