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Thu Aug 28 9:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 1 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Texas SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
2 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 51 0 0 >99% 93% 10%
3 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 51 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
4 Clemson ACCACC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
5 Georgia SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
6 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 0 0 97% 76% 8%
7 Oregon Big 10Big 10 51 0 0 >99% 93% 10%
8 Alabama SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
9 LSU SECSEC 51 0 0 >99% 92% 10%
10 Miami ACCACC 50 0 0 >99% 86% 9%
11 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 51 0 0 >99% 94% 10%
 
12 Illinois Big 10Big 10 51 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
13 South Carolina SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 87% 9%
14 Michigan Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
15 Florida SECSEC 51 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
16 SMU ACCACC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
17 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 37 0 1 94% 58% 1%
18 Oklahoma SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
19 Texas A&M SECSEC 51 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
20 Indiana Big 10Big 10 51 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
21 Ole Miss SECSEC 51 0 0 >99% 87% 9%
22 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 64 1 0 >99% 91% 22%
23 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 51 0 0 99% 89% 9%
24 Tennessee SECSEC 51 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
25 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 39 0 1 96% 63% 2%
26 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 62 1 0 99% 91% 19%
27 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 61 1 0 99% 84% 18%
28 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 61 1 0 99% 88% 17%
29 Kansas Big 12Big 12 61 1 0 99% 87% 17%
30 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 61 1 0 99% 86% 17%
31 Bowling Green MACMAC 59 1 0 >99% 90% 16%
32 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 59 1 0 >99% 89% 15%
33 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
34 Akron MACMAC 51 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
35 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
36 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 51 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
37 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 51 0 0 >99% 93% 10%
38 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
39 Arizona Big 12Big 12 51 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
40 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 91% 10%
41 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
42 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 90% 10%
43 Toledo MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 95% 9%
44 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
45 Iowa Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
46 UMass MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
47 Central Michigan MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
48 Miami OH MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
49 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
50 Utah Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
51 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
52 Western Michigan MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
53 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
54 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
55 Kent State MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
56 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 X X X
57 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
58 Buffalo MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
59 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
60 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
61 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
62 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
63 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
64 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
65 UCLA Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
66 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
67 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
68 BYU Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
69 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
70 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
71 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 >99% 93% 9%
72 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
73 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 50 0 0 X X X
74 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
75 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 0 0 98% 77% 8%
76 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
77 Houston Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
78 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
79 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
80 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
81 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 99% 83% 8%
82 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
83 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 94% 9%
84 Maryland Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
85 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
86 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
87 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
88 TCU Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
89 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 91% 9%
90 Washington Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
91 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 87% 8%
92 Purdue Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
93 Colorado Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
94 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
95 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
96 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
97 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 >99% 92% 9%
98 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
99 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
100 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 0 0 99% 80% 8%
101 Northern Illinois MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
102 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
103 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 93% 8%
104 Baylor Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 99% 85% 8%
105 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 50 0 0 >99% 89% 8%
106 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
107 Ball State MACMAC 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
108 Wake Forest ACCACC 50 0 0 99% 86% 8%
109 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 90% 9%
110 UCF Big 12Big 12 50 0 0 99% 88% 8%
111 USC Big 10Big 10 50 0 0 >99% 89% 9%
112 Auburn SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
113 Missouri SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
114 Duke ACCACC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 9%
115 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 0 0 97% 75% 8%
116 Kentucky SECSEC 50 0 0 >99% 87% 8%
117 Syracuse ACCACC 50 0 0 >99% 88% 8%
118 Georgia Tech ACCACC 49 0 0 >99% 86% 8%
119 Vanderbilt SECSEC 49 0 0 >99% 86% 8%
120 California ACCACC 49 0 0 >99% 86% 8%
121 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 49 0 0 >99% 91% 8%
122 North Carolina ACCACC 49 0 0 >99% 86% 8%
123 Florida St. ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 84% 8%
124 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 49 0 0 >99% 87% 8%
125 Arkansas SECSEC 49 0 0 >99% 87% 8%
126 Louisville ACCACC 49 0 0 >99% 87% 8%
127 Boston College ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 83% 8%
128 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 49 0 0 94% 64% 7%
129 Virginia ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 83% 8%
130 N.C. State ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 86% 8%
131 Virginia Tech ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 86% 8%
132 Pittsburgh ACCACC 49 0 0 99% 84% 8%
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 40 0 1 98% 76% 2%
134 Ohio MACMAC 39 0 1 96% 67% 2%
135 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 39 0 1 96% 66% 2%
136 Stanford ACCACC 39 0 1 96% 65% 2%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot