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Sun Sep 14 3:00 pm

NCAA Football - Week 4 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 81 3 0 100% >99% 39%
2 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 80 3 0 100% >99% 37%
3 LSU SECSEC 80 3 0 100% 99% 35%
4 Miami ACCACC 80 3 0 100% 99% 36%
5 Georgia SECSEC 79 3 0 100% >99% 35%
6 Oregon Big 10Big 10 78 3 0 100% >99% 34%
7 Florida St. ACCACC 78 2 0 100% >99% 34%
8 Texas SECSEC 78 2 1 100% 100% 32%
9 Illinois Big 10Big 10 77 3 0 100% >99% 32%
10 Texas A&M SECSEC 77 3 0 >99% 96% 29%
 
11 Oklahoma SECSEC 76 3 0 100% 99% 30%
12 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 76 4 0 >99% 93% 27%
13 Ole Miss SECSEC 75 3 0 100% 92% 27%
14 Alabama SECSEC 75 2 1 100% >99% 26%
15 Tennessee SECSEC 74 2 1 100% 100% 27%
16 Utah Big 12Big 12 74 3 0 >99% 94% 26%
17 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 73 3 0 100% 99% 25%
18 Georgia Tech ACCACC 73 3 0 >99% 88% 24%
19 Indiana Big 10Big 10 73 3 0 100% 97% 24%
20 Vanderbilt SECSEC 72 3 0 100% 98% 24%
21 Michigan Big 10Big 10 71 2 1 100% 99% 22%
22 Auburn SECSEC 71 3 0 >99% 89% 20%
23 Missouri SECSEC 71 3 0 >99% 97% 19%
24 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 70 0 2 100% 100% 21%
25 USC Big 10Big 10 70 3 0 >99% 73% 21%
26 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 70 3 0 >99% 92% 19%
27 Maryland Big 10Big 10 70 3 0 100% 96% 20%
28 Arizona Big 12Big 12 70 3 0 >99% 96% 20%
29 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 70 3 0 >99% 79% 21%
30 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 70 3 0 >99% 89% 20%
31 N.C. State ACCACC 70 3 0 98% 47% 20%
32 Houston Big 12Big 12 70 3 0 >99% 86% 21%
33 TCU Big 12Big 12 70 2 0 100% 97% 21%
34 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 69 3 0 100% 98% 20%
35 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 68 3 0 >99% 86% 18%
36 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 67 3 0 >99% 70% 17%
37 California ACCACC 67 3 0 99% 50% 16%
38 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 66 3 0 100% 96% 15%
39 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 66 3 0 >99% 61% 16%
40 BYU Big 12Big 12 66 2 0 100% 99% 17%
41 Washington Big 10Big 10 66 2 0 100% 98% 17%
42 UCF Big 12Big 12 63 2 0 >99% 93% 14%
43 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 62 2 1 100% 96% 10%
44 Baylor Big 12Big 12 62 2 1 >99% 90% 9%
45 Kansas Big 12Big 12 60 2 1 >99% 86% 8%
46 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 60 2 1 99% 55% 8%
47 Louisville ACCACC 60 2 0 >99% 68% 10%
48 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 59 2 1 >99% 83% 7%
49 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 59 2 1 100% 92% 7%
50 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 59 3 0 89% 39% 9%
51 Arkansas SECSEC 58 2 1 >99% 88% 6%
52 Kentucky SECSEC 58 2 1 94% 47% 4%
53 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 57 2 1 100% 92% 6%
54 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 57 2 1 89% 41% 7%
55 Purdue Big 10Big 10 56 2 1 99% 66% 5%
56 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 55 2 1 >99% 90% 5%
57 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 55 2 1 97% 46% 6%
58 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 54 3 1 57% 11% 3%
59 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 54 3 1 68% 19% 4%
60 Virginia ACCACC 53 2 1 98% 45% 4%
61 Iowa Big 10Big 10 53 2 1 >99% 92% 4%
62 SMU ACCACC 52 2 1 99% 57% 4%
63 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 52 2 1 97% 46% 4%
64 Wake Forest ACCACC 52 2 1 77% 14% 2%
65 North Carolina ACCACC 51 2 1 99% 62% 3%
66 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 2 1 44% 6% 1%
67 South Carolina SECSEC 51 2 1 99% 68% 2%
68 Colorado Big 12Big 12 51 1 2 97% 47% 2%
69 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 51 2 1 49% 7% 3%
70 Pittsburgh ACCACC 50 2 1 99% 63% 3%
71 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 50 1 1 >99% 88% 3%
72 Syracuse ACCACC 49 2 1 96% 38% 2%
73 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 49 2 1 46% 4% 2%
74 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 48 2 1 65% 15% 2%
75 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 2 1 83% 17% 2%
76 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 2 1 98% 58% 3%
77 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 48 2 1 70% 17% 2%
78 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 47 2 1 19% 1% 1%
79 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 46 2 1 24% 2% 1%
80 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 46 2 1 18% 1% 1%
81 Toledo MACMAC 46 2 1 20% 1% 1%
82 Clemson ACCACC 45 1 2 60% 5% 1%
83 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 44 2 1 22% 1% 1%
84 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 44 1 2 90% 27% <1%
85 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 44 2 1 23% 1% 1%
86 Florida SECSEC 44 1 2 98% 60% 1%
87 Buffalo MACMAC 43 2 1 4% <1% <1%
88 Ohio MACMAC 42 1 2 5% <1% <1%
89 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 42 2 1 46% 8% 1%
90 Bowling Green MACMAC 42 2 1 12% 1% <1%
91 Stanford ACCACC 42 1 2 93% 30% 1%
92 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 41 2 1 X X X
93 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 41 1 1 85% 32% 2%
94 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 41 1 1 80% 26% 1%
95 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 40 1 1 78% 18% 1%
96 Duke ACCACC 40 1 2 95% 43% 1%
97 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 40 1 2 11% <1% <1%
98 Northern Illinois MACMAC 39 1 1 25% 2% <1%
99 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 39 1 1 45% 4% 1%
100 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 38 1 1 79% 22% 1%
101 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 37 1 2 X X X
102 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 37 1 1 37% 3% <1%
103 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 37 1 2 24% 1% <1%
104 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 37 1 2 89% 37% 1%
105 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 37 1 2 88% 28% <1%
106 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 37 1 2 25% 2% <1%
107 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 1 1 87% 24% <1%
108 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 1 2 66% 6% <1%
109 Boston College ACCACC 34 1 2 61% 4% <1%
110 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 34 1 3 76% 7% <1%
111 Central Michigan MACMAC 33 1 2 1% <1% <1%
112 UCLA Big 10Big 10 33 0 3 98% 57% <1%
113 Ball State MACMAC 33 1 2 3% <1% <1%
114 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 32 1 2 4% <1% <1%
115 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 1 2 14% 1% <1%
116 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 31 1 2 6% <1% <1%
117 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 1 2 86% 30% <1%
118 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 31 1 2 5% <1% <1%
119 Kent State MACMAC 30 1 2 15% 1% <1%
120 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 30 1 2 4% <1% <1%
121 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 29 1 2 10% <1% <1%
122 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 29 1 2 10% <1% <1%
123 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 29 1 2 <1% X <1%
124 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 29 1 2 32% 4% <1%
125 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 28 1 2 6% <1% <1%
126 Miami OH MACMAC 27 0 2 7% <1% <1%
127 Virginia Tech ACCACC 26 0 3 81% 29% <1%
128 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 26 0 3 <1% <1% <1%
129 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 25 1 2 2% <1% <1%
130 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 24 1 2 5% <1% <1%
131 Western Michigan MACMAC 24 0 3 <1% X <1%
132 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 22 0 2 30% 4% <1%
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 19 0 3 2% <1% <1%
134 Akron MACMAC 18 0 3 <1% X <1%
135 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 8 0 3 <1% X <1%
136 UMass MACMAC 6 0 3 <1% X <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot