PlayoffStatus.com↓≡

Home ► NCAA Football ► NCAA Football Participation Probabilities
Fri Oct 17 12:00 am

NCAA Football - Week 8 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 95 6 0 100% 97% 75%
2 Miami ACCACC 94 5 0 100% >99% 68%
3 Indiana Big 10Big 10 93 6 0 100% 91% 72%
4 Texas A&M SECSEC 92 6 0 100% 97% 64%
5 Ole Miss SECSEC 91 6 0 100% 96% 60%
6 Alabama SECSEC 90 5 1 100% 99% 57%
7 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 90 6 0 100% 99% 58%
8 Oregon Big 10Big 10 89 5 1 100% >99% 52%
9 Georgia SECSEC 87 5 1 100% >99% 48%
10 LSU SECSEC 86 5 1 100% >99% 45%
11 Tennessee SECSEC 86 5 1 100% >99% 44%
 
12 Georgia Tech ACCACC 85 6 0 >99% 88% 45%
13 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 84 4 2 >99% 90% 40%
14 Oklahoma SECSEC 83 5 1 100% >99% 35%
15 BYU Big 12Big 12 83 6 0 100% 98% 37%
16 Missouri SECSEC 81 5 1 100% >99% 31%
17 Vanderbilt SECSEC 81 5 1 >99% 92% 30%
18 Virginia ACCACC 80 5 1 >99% 77% 30%
19 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 78 5 1 100% 76% 24%
20 USC Big 10Big 10 78 5 1 99% 64% 22%
21 Texas SECSEC 76 4 2 100% 98% 20%
22 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 6 0 >99% 80% 26%
23 Utah Big 12Big 12 75 5 1 99% 52% 16%
24 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 74 5 1 100% 81% 21%
25 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 73 5 1 86% 24% 12%
26 Illinois Big 10Big 10 73 5 2 39% 2% 6%
27 Washington Big 10Big 10 73 5 1 86% 22% 11%
28 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 6 0 >99% 70% 18%
29 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 5 1 97% 34% 21%
30 Michigan Big 10Big 10 72 4 2 98% 36% 10%
31 Louisville ACCACC 70 4 1 86% 18% 8%
32 Duke ACCACC 69 4 2 >99% 62% 14%
33 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 69 6 0 63% 10% 12%
34 Houston Big 12Big 12 69 5 1 84% 20% 9%
35 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 69 5 2 51% 4% 4%
36 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 67 4 2 93% 30% 6%
37 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 66 5 1 66% 3% 7%
38 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 66 4 2 78% 10% 4%
39 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 64 4 2 82% 20% 3%
40 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 62 5 1 42% 3% 4%
41 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 62 4 2 61% 8% 2%
42 TCU Big 12Big 12 61 4 2 72% 8% 2%
43 Arizona Big 12Big 12 61 4 2 63% 6% 2%
44 Iowa Big 10Big 10 61 4 2 64% 10% 2%
45 N.C. State ACCACC 60 4 3 13% <1% <1%
46 Kansas Big 12Big 12 59 4 3 20% <1% 1%
47 Baylor Big 12Big 12 59 4 2 91% 20% 3%
48 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 58 5 1 30% 3% 2%
49 SMU ACCACC 58 4 2 96% 29% 4%
50 Maryland Big 10Big 10 57 4 2 34% 1% 1%
51 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 57 4 2 28% 3% 2%
52 Wake Forest ACCACC 57 4 2 15% <1% 1%
53 Auburn SECSEC 57 3 3 1% X <1%
54 Colorado Big 12Big 12 56 3 4 2% <1% <1%
55 California ACCACC 55 4 2 58% 2% 2%
56 Pittsburgh ACCACC 55 4 2 75% 11% 1%
57 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 55 4 3 40% 1% 1%
58 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 55 4 2 15% <1% 1%
59 Syracuse ACCACC 53 3 3 14% 1% <1%
60 Clemson ACCACC 53 3 3 9% <1% <1%
61 South Carolina SECSEC 53 3 3 27% <1% <1%
62 Florida St. ACCACC 53 3 3 <1% X <1%
63 Florida SECSEC 52 2 4 24% 1% <1%
64 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 52 3 3 X X X
65 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 52 4 2 3% X <1%
66 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 52 4 2 2% <1% <1%
67 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 52 4 2 3% <1% <1%
68 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 51 4 2 4% <1% <1%
69 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 50 5 2 4% <1% <1%
70 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 50 5 2 6% <1% <1%
71 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 49 3 3 1% X <1%
72 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 48 4 2 X X X
73 Arkansas SECSEC 47 2 4 17% <1% <1%
74 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 47 3 3 <1% X <1%
75 UCLA Big 10Big 10 47 2 4 92% 13% <1%
76 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 46 4 2 2% X <1%
77 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 3 3 44% 1% 1%
78 Kentucky SECSEC 46 2 3 1% <1% <1%
79 UCF Big 12Big 12 45 3 3 3% X <1%
80 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 44 3 3 52% 2% <1%
81 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 44 3 3 67% 5% <1%
82 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 44 5 2 <1% X <1%
83 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 43 3 3 2% <1% <1%
84 Purdue Big 10Big 10 43 2 4 1% X <1%
85 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 42 3 4 17% <1% <1%
86 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 42 2 4 2% X <1%
87 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 42 3 3 1% X <1%
88 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 42 2 4 2% X <1%
89 Stanford ACCACC 41 2 4 5% <1% <1%
90 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 41 3 3 1% X <1%
91 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 41 3 3 1% X <1%
92 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 40 3 3 <1% X <1%
93 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 40 3 3 1% X <1%
94 Western Michigan MACMAC 39 4 3 X X X
95 Bowling Green MACMAC 38 3 3 X X X
96 Ohio MACMAC 38 3 3 X X X
97 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 3 3 1% X <1%
98 Virginia Tech ACCACC 38 2 5 6% <1% <1%
99 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 37 3 4 <1% X <1%
100 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 37 3 3 X X X
101 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 36 3 3 X X X
102 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 36 4 3 X X X
103 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 36 3 3 <1% X <1%
104 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 35 3 3 <1% X <1%
105 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 35 3 3 X X X
106 North Carolina ACCACC 33 2 3 46% 1% <1%
107 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 33 2 4 X X X
108 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 3 4 X X X
109 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 32 2 4 <1% X <1%
110 Miami OH MACMAC 32 3 3 X X X
111 Toledo MACMAC 32 3 3 X X X
112 Buffalo MACMAC 31 3 3 X X X
113 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 2 4 <1% X <1%
114 Central Michigan MACMAC 31 3 3 X X X
115 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 30 2 5 X X X
116 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 30 3 4 X X X
117 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 29 3 3 X X X
118 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 27 1 5 X X X
119 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 24 1 5 <1% X <1%
120 Kent State MACMAC 24 2 4 X X X
121 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 23 2 4 X X X
122 Ball State MACMAC 23 2 4 X X X
123 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 23 2 4 X X X
124 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 21 1 5 X X X
125 Boston College ACCACC 20 1 5 X X X
126 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 16 1 5 <1% X <1%
127 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 15 2 5 X X X
128 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 14 1 6 X X X
129 Akron MACMAC 14 2 5 X X X
130 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 14 0 7 X X X
131 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 9 1 5 X X X
132 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 9 2 5 X X X
133 Northern Illinois MACMAC 8 1 5 X X X
134 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 3 1 5 X X X
135 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 0 0 7 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -3 0 6 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot