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Wed Nov 12 10:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 12 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 101 9 0 100% 98% 89%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 100 10 0 100% 85% 93%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 99 9 0 100% 86% 85%
4 Alabama SECSEC 98 8 1 100% 89% 81%
5 Georgia SECSEC 97 8 1 100% 97% 81%
6 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 96 9 1 100% 82% 79%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 95 9 1 >99% 51% 75%
8 Oregon Big 10Big 10 93 8 1 100% 93% 61%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 92 7 2 >99% 50% 62%
10 Texas SECSEC 91 7 2 100% 93% 50%
 
11 Oklahoma SECSEC 91 7 2 100% 82% 53%
12 BYU Big 12Big 12 89 8 1 100% 42% 47%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 88 7 2 89% 12% 37%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 87 8 2 60% 1% 26%
15 Miami ACCACC 85 7 2 86% 8% 25%
16 Georgia Tech ACCACC 84 8 1 100% 52% 41%
17 USC Big 10Big 10 83 7 2 57% 3% 14%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 82 7 2 80% 5% 13%
19 Virginia ACCACC 81 8 2 92% 6% 26%
20 Louisville ACCACC 80 7 2 24% 2% 6%
21 Iowa Big 10Big 10 78 6 3 37% <1% 4%
22 Pittsburgh ACCACC 77 7 2 92% 30% 12%
23 Tennessee SECSEC 76 6 3 2% X <1%
24 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 7 2 91% 4% 18%
25 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 74 7 2 100% 11% 10%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 8 1 76% 3% 22%
27 Illinois Big 10Big 10 73 6 3 X X X
28 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 7 2 74% 5% 26%
29 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 73 6 3 34% <1% 5%
30 Houston Big 12Big 12 73 8 2 15% <1% 3%
31 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 73 8 1 69% 3% 20%
32 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 70 7 3 X X X
33 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 8 2 27% <1% 4%
34 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 68 7 2 66% 2% 9%
35 Washington Big 10Big 10 68 6 3 X X X
36 Wake Forest ACCACC 66 6 3 X X X
37 TCU Big 12Big 12 66 6 3 3% X <1%
38 SMU ACCACC 66 7 3 61% 1% 8%
39 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 6 4 X X X
40 Arizona Big 12Big 12 66 6 3 1% X <1%
41 N.C. State ACCACC 65 5 4 X X X
42 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 65 6 3 1% X <1%
43 LSU SECSEC 64 5 4 X X X
44 Missouri SECSEC 62 6 3 X X X
45 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 62 7 2 9% <1% 2%
46 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 6 3 52% 1% 5%
47 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 62 7 2 4% <1% 1%
48 Duke ACCACC 61 5 4 76% 2% 6%
49 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 60 6 3 <1% X <1%
50 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 59 7 2 3% X <1%
51 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 6 3 2% X <1%
52 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 58 7 2 <1% X <1%
53 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 58 5 4 X X X
54 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 56 5 5 X X X
55 California ACCACC 56 6 4 X X X
56 Baylor Big 12Big 12 55 5 4 1% X <1%
57 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 3 <1% X <1%
58 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 54 6 3 2% X <1%
59 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 54 7 2 <1% X <1%
60 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 53 6 3 X X X
61 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 53 7 3 <1% X <1%
62 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 5 5 X X X
63 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 7 3 X X X
64 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 51 6 3 X X X
65 Kansas Big 12Big 12 50 5 5 X X X
66 Kentucky SECSEC 50 4 5 X X X
67 Florida SECSEC 50 3 6 X X X
68 Auburn SECSEC 49 4 6 X X X
69 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 49 4 6 X X X
70 Florida St. ACCACC 48 4 5 X X X
71 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 5 4 X X X
72 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 48 6 3 <1% X <1%
73 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 48 4 5 <1% X <1%
74 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 47 3 6 X X X
75 UCLA Big 10Big 10 46 3 6 X X X
76 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 4 5 X X X
77 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 6 X X X
78 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 45 5 4 <1% X <1%
79 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 45 6 3 X X X
80 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 45 4 5 X X X
81 Colorado Big 12Big 12 44 3 7 X X X
82 UCF Big 12Big 12 44 4 5 X X X
83 Clemson ACCACC 44 4 5 X X X
84 Western Michigan MACMAC 44 6 4 X X X
85 Maryland Big 10Big 10 43 4 5 X X X
86 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
87 Virginia Tech ACCACC 43 3 6 X X X
88 Ohio MACMAC 42 6 4 X X X
89 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 5 5 X X X
90 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 41 5 4 X X X
91 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 41 4 5 X X X
92 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 40 3 6 X X X
93 Toledo MACMAC 39 6 4 X X X
94 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 39 4 5 X X X
95 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 39 5 5 X X X
96 Central Michigan MACMAC 39 6 4 X X X
97 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 39 5 4 X X X
98 North Carolina ACCACC 38 4 5 X X X
99 Stanford ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
100 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 38 3 6 X X X
101 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 37 4 5 X X X
102 Syracuse ACCACC 37 3 7 X X X
103 Purdue Big 10Big 10 35 2 8 X X X
104 Arkansas SECSEC 35 2 7 X X X
105 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 33 4 5 X X X
106 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 32 4 5 X X X
107 Miami OH MACMAC 32 5 5 X X X
108 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 6 X X X
109 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 31 4 5 X X X
110 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 31 4 5 X X X
111 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 3 6 X X X
112 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 28 4 6 X X X
113 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 27 3 6 X X X
114 Buffalo MACMAC 26 5 5 X X X
115 Ball State MACMAC 26 4 5 X X X
116 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 25 3 6 X X X
117 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 25 3 6 X X X
118 Kent State MACMAC 24 4 6 X X X
119 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 20 3 6 X X X
120 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 20 1 8 X X X
121 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 19 2 8 X X X
122 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 19 2 7 X X X
123 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 19 2 7 X X X
124 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 16 2 7 X X X
125 Bowling Green MACMAC 16 3 7 X X X
126 Boston College ACCACC 14 1 9 X X X
127 Akron MACMAC 14 4 7 X X X
128 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 14 1 8 X X X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 13 1 8 X X X
130 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 12 2 7 X X X
131 Northern Illinois MACMAC 12 3 7 X X X
132 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 9 3 7 X X X
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 6 1 8 X X X
134 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 4 1 8 X X X
135 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 0 1 8 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -14 0 10 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot