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Sat Nov 8 9:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 11 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 103 9 0 100% >99% 92%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 102 10 0 100% 91% 95%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 101 9 0 100% 95% 91%
4 Alabama SECSEC 99 7 1 100% 98% 80%
5 Georgia SECSEC 100 8 1 100% >99% 85%
6 Ole Miss SECSEC 96 9 1 >99% 66% 78%
7 BYU Big 12Big 12 88 8 1 100% 39% 45%
8 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 99 9 1 100% 92% 87%
9 Oregon Big 10Big 10 98 8 1 100% >99% 82%
10 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 91 6 2 >99% 83% 56%
 
11 Texas SECSEC 89 7 2 100% 73% 38%
12 Oklahoma SECSEC 88 7 2 >99% 34% 32%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 87 7 2 84% 11% 34%
14 Virginia ACCACC 86 8 1 100% 44% 44%
15 Louisville ACCACC 85 7 1 83% 17% 27%
16 Vanderbilt SECSEC 86 8 2 50% 1% 22%
17 Georgia Tech ACCACC 81 8 1 87% 33% 27%
18 Miami ACCACC 83 7 2 55% 1% 15%
19 USC Big 10Big 10 85 7 2 79% 8% 21%
20 Iowa Big 10Big 10 77 6 3 23% <1% 3%
21 Michigan Big 10Big 10 78 7 2 66% 1% 8%
22 Missouri SECSEC 75 6 3 4% X 1%
23 Washington Big 10Big 10 69 6 3 <1% X <1%
24 Pittsburgh ACCACC 74 7 2 54% 11% 6%
25 Tennessee SECSEC 73 6 3 <1% X <1%
26 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 77 7 2 82% 7% 28%
27 Houston Big 12Big 12 76 8 2 15% <1% 3%
28 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 7 2 90% 3% 17%
29 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 75 8 1 62% 3% 18%
30 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 8 1 72% 3% 21%
31 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 73 6 3 34% <1% 5%
32 Illinois Big 10Big 10 73 6 3 <1% X <1%
33 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 7 1 81% 19% 11%
34 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 72 7 2 >99% 10% 10%
35 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 68 8 2 27% <1% 3%
36 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 67 6 3 X X X
37 TCU Big 12Big 12 66 6 3 2% X <1%
38 LSU SECSEC 66 5 3 <1% X <1%
39 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 6 4 X X X
40 Arizona Big 12Big 12 65 6 3 1% X <1%
41 N.C. State ACCACC 65 5 4 X X X
42 SMU ACCACC 65 7 3 36% <1% 4%
43 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 65 6 3 1% X <1%
44 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 65 7 1 18% 1% 3%
45 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 6 3 46% 1% 4%
46 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 61 7 2 2% X <1%
47 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 61 7 2 2% <1% <1%
48 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 61 6 3 <1% X <1%
49 Wake Forest ACCACC 60 5 3 X X X
50 Duke ACCACC 60 5 4 47% <1% 3%
51 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 58 5 4 X X X
52 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 6 3 1% X <1%
53 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 57 5 5 X X X
54 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 56 6 2 <1% X <1%
55 Baylor Big 12Big 12 55 5 4 1% X <1%
56 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 55 6 3 1% X <1%
57 Florida SECSEC 55 3 5 X X X
58 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 54 6 3 <1% X <1%
59 Florida St. ACCACC 54 4 4 X X X
60 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 53 5 5 X X X
61 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 52 7 2 <1% X <1%
62 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 52 6 3 X X X
63 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 52 6 3 <1% X <1%
64 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 7 3 X X X
65 Kansas Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 X X X
66 California ACCACC 50 5 4 X X X
67 UCLA Big 10Big 10 50 3 5 5% X <1%
68 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 49 4 6 X X X
69 Auburn SECSEC 48 4 6 X X X
70 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 5 4 X X X
71 Ohio MACMAC 48 6 3 X X X
72 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 48 4 5 <1% X <1%
73 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 48 3 6 X X X
74 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 47 6 3 <1% X <1%
75 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 47 4 5 X X X
76 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 46 4 5 X X X
77 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 46 6 3 <1% X <1%
78 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 6 X X X
79 Kentucky SECSEC 45 3 5 X X X
80 Colorado Big 12Big 12 44 3 7 X X X
81 UCF Big 12Big 12 44 4 5 X X X
82 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 44 5 5 X X X
83 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 44 6 3 X X X
84 Maryland Big 10Big 10 43 4 5 X X X
85 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
86 Virginia Tech ACCACC 42 3 6 X X X
87 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 42 4 4 <1% X <1%
88 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 40 4 5 X X X
89 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 40 4 5 X X X
90 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 40 5 4 X X X
91 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 40 3 6 X X X
92 Western Michigan MACMAC 39 5 4 X X X
93 Stanford ACCACC 39 3 7 X X X
94 Clemson ACCACC 39 3 5 X X X
95 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 38 3 6 X X X
96 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 38 5 5 X X X
97 North Carolina ACCACC 38 4 5 X X X
98 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 37 5 4 X X X
99 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 37 4 5 X X X
100 Miami OH MACMAC 37 5 4 X X X
101 Syracuse ACCACC 36 3 7 X X X
102 Central Michigan MACMAC 35 5 4 X X X
103 Purdue Big 10Big 10 34 2 8 X X X
104 Arkansas SECSEC 34 2 7 X X X
105 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 33 4 5 X X X
106 Toledo MACMAC 33 5 4 X X X
107 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 32 4 5 X X X
108 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 32 3 6 X X X
109 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 32 4 5 X X X
110 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 6 X X X
111 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 30 4 5 X X X
112 Buffalo MACMAC 30 5 4 X X X
113 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 28 4 6 X X X
114 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 26 3 6 X X X
115 Ball State MACMAC 25 4 5 X X X
116 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 25 2 7 X X X
117 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 25 3 6 X X X
118 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 24 3 6 X X X
119 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 21 2 6 X X X
120 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 20 1 8 X X X
121 Kent State MACMAC 19 3 6 X X X
122 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 19 2 7 X X X
123 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 19 3 6 X X X
124 Akron MACMAC 18 4 6 X X X
125 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 16 2 7 X X X
126 Bowling Green MACMAC 16 3 7 X X X
127 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 14 1 8 X X X
128 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 14 1 8 X X X
129 Boston College ACCACC 13 1 9 X X X
130 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 10 2 7 X X X
131 Northern Illinois MACMAC 9 2 7 X X X
132 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 9 3 7 X X X
133 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 6 1 7 X X X
134 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA -1 1 8 X X X
135 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA -2 0 8 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -10 0 9 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot