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Tue Nov 11 11:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 12 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 101 9 0 100% 98% 90%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 101 10 0 100% 86% 93%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 99 9 0 100% 85% 85%
4 Alabama SECSEC 98 8 1 100% 90% 82%
5 Georgia SECSEC 97 8 1 100% 97% 80%
6 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 96 9 1 100% 82% 79%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 95 9 1 >99% 51% 74%
8 Oregon Big 10Big 10 93 8 1 100% 94% 63%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 92 7 2 >99% 50% 63%
10 Texas SECSEC 91 7 2 100% 93% 49%
 
11 Oklahoma SECSEC 91 7 2 100% 82% 53%
12 BYU Big 12Big 12 89 8 1 100% 43% 47%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 88 7 2 88% 12% 36%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 86 8 2 59% 2% 26%
15 Miami ACCACC 85 7 2 85% 8% 25%
16 Georgia Tech ACCACC 84 8 1 100% 51% 40%
17 USC Big 10Big 10 83 7 2 60% 4% 14%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 82 7 2 79% 5% 12%
19 Virginia ACCACC 81 8 2 92% 6% 27%
20 Louisville ACCACC 79 7 2 23% 2% 6%
21 Iowa Big 10Big 10 78 6 3 44% <1% 5%
22 Pittsburgh ACCACC 77 7 2 92% 29% 12%
23 Tennessee SECSEC 76 6 3 1% X <1%
24 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 7 2 91% 4% 18%
25 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 74 7 2 100% 12% 10%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 8 1 76% 4% 22%
27 Illinois Big 10Big 10 73 6 3 <1% X <1%
28 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 7 2 75% 5% 26%
29 Houston Big 12Big 12 73 8 2 15% <1% 3%
30 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 73 6 3 35% <1% 5%
31 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 73 8 1 67% 3% 20%
32 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 70 7 3 X X X
33 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 8 2 28% X 4%
34 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 68 7 2 67% 2% 9%
35 Washington Big 10Big 10 68 6 3 X X X
36 Wake Forest ACCACC 66 6 3 X X X
37 TCU Big 12Big 12 66 6 3 2% X <1%
38 SMU ACCACC 66 7 3 62% 1% 8%
39 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 6 4 X X X
40 Arizona Big 12Big 12 66 6 3 1% X <1%
41 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 65 6 3 1% X <1%
42 N.C. State ACCACC 65 5 4 X X X
43 LSU SECSEC 64 5 4 X X X
44 Missouri SECSEC 63 6 3 X X X
45 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 62 7 2 9% <1% 2%
46 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 6 3 52% 1% 5%
47 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 62 7 2 5% X 1%
48 Duke ACCACC 61 5 4 78% 2% 6%
49 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 60 6 3 <1% X <1%
50 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 58 7 2 <1% X <1%
51 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 6 3 2% X <1%
52 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 58 5 4 X X X
53 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 58 7 2 2% X <1%
54 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 56 5 5 X X X
55 California ACCACC 55 6 4 X X X
56 Baylor Big 12Big 12 55 5 4 1% X <1%
57 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 3 <1% X <1%
58 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 54 6 3 2% X <1%
59 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 53 7 2 <1% X <1%
60 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 53 7 3 <1% X <1%
61 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 53 6 3 X X X
62 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 52 5 5 X X X
63 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 7 3 X X X
64 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 51 6 3 <1% X <1%
65 Kansas Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 X X X
66 Florida SECSEC 49 3 6 X X X
67 Kentucky SECSEC 49 4 5 X X X
68 Auburn SECSEC 49 4 6 X X X
69 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 49 4 6 X X X
70 Florida St. ACCACC 49 4 5 X X X
71 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 48 6 3 <1% X <1%
72 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 5 4 X X X
73 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 48 3 6 X X X
74 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 48 4 5 <1% X <1%
75 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 4 5 X X X
76 UCLA Big 10Big 10 46 3 6 X X X
77 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 6 X X X
78 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 45 5 4 <1% X <1%
79 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 45 6 3 X X X
80 Colorado Big 12Big 12 44 3 7 X X X
81 UCF Big 12Big 12 44 4 5 X X X
82 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 44 4 5 X X X
83 Clemson ACCACC 44 4 5 X X X
84 Western Michigan MACMAC 44 6 4 X X X
85 Maryland Big 10Big 10 43 4 5 X X X
86 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
87 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
88 Ohio MACMAC 43 6 4 X X X
89 Virginia Tech ACCACC 42 3 6 X X X
90 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 41 5 4 X X X
91 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 41 4 5 X X X
92 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 41 3 6 X X X
93 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 39 4 5 X X X
94 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 39 5 5 X X X
95 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 39 5 4 X X X
96 North Carolina ACCACC 38 4 5 X X X
97 Stanford ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
98 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 38 3 6 X X X
99 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 37 4 5 X X X
100 Syracuse ACCACC 37 3 7 X X X
101 Miami OH MACMAC 37 5 4 X X X
102 Central Michigan MACMAC 35 5 4 X X X
103 Purdue Big 10Big 10 35 2 8 X X X
104 Arkansas SECSEC 34 2 7 X X X
105 Toledo MACMAC 34 5 4 X X X
106 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 4 5 X X X
107 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 32 4 5 X X X
108 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 6 X X X
109 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 31 4 5 X X X
110 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 31 4 5 X X X
111 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 3 6 X X X
112 Buffalo MACMAC 30 5 4 X X X
113 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 28 4 6 X X X
114 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 27 3 6 X X X
115 Ball State MACMAC 25 4 5 X X X
116 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 25 3 6 X X X
117 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 25 3 6 X X X
118 Kent State MACMAC 24 4 6 X X X
119 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 20 3 6 X X X
120 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 20 1 8 X X X
121 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 19 2 8 X X X
122 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 19 2 7 X X X
123 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 19 2 7 X X X
124 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 16 2 7 X X X
125 Bowling Green MACMAC 15 3 7 X X X
126 Boston College ACCACC 14 1 9 X X X
127 Akron MACMAC 14 4 7 X X X
128 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 14 1 8 X X X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 13 1 8 X X X
130 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 12 2 7 X X X
131 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 9 3 7 X X X
132 Northern Illinois MACMAC 8 2 7 X X X
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 6 1 8 X X X
134 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 4 1 8 X X X
135 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 0 1 8 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -10 0 9 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot