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Thu Nov 27 11:15 pm

NCAA Football - Week 14 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 104 11 0 100% >99% >99%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 103 11 0 100% 76% 97%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 101 11 0 100% 87% 92%
4 Georgia SECSEC 100 10 1 100% 90% 95%
5 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 99 10 1 100% 61% 85%
6 Oregon Big 10Big 10 98 10 1 100% 71% 88%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 96 10 1 >99% 25% 79%
8 Oklahoma SECSEC 95 9 2 >99% 13% 75%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 94 9 2 97% 5% 78%
10 Alabama SECSEC 93 9 2 87% 19% 61%
 
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 91 10 1 100% 4% 57%
12 Miami ACCACC 90 9 2 76% 2% 39%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 89 9 2 29% 2% 18%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 87 9 2 30% X 16%
15 Michigan Big 10Big 10 86 9 2 64% <1% 14%
16 Texas SECSEC 85 8 3 15% X 5%
17 USC Big 10Big 10 83 8 3 X X X
18 Virginia ACCACC 82 9 2 100% 1% 50%
19 Tennessee SECSEC 81 8 3 <1% X <1%
20 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 80 8 3 13% X 3%
21 SMU ACCACC 78 8 3 100% 2% 30%
22 Pittsburgh ACCACC 77 8 3 45% 3% 12%
23 Georgia Tech ACCACC 76 9 2 8% 3% 4%
24 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 9 2 70% <1% 34%
25 Arizona Big 12Big 12 73 8 3 X X X
26 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 9 2 60% X 27%
27 Illinois Big 10Big 10 73 7 4 X X X
28 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 10 1 81% <1% 36%
29 Washington Big 10Big 10 72 8 3 X X X
30 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 72 10 1 7% <1% 4%
31 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 8 3 <1% X <1%
32 LSU SECSEC 71 7 4 X X X
33 TCU Big 12Big 12 70 7 4 X X X
34 Houston Big 12Big 12 69 8 3 X X X
35 Wake Forest ACCACC 69 8 3 X X X
36 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 69 7 4 X X X
37 N.C. State ACCACC 65 6 5 X X X
38 Iowa Big 10Big 10 65 7 4 X X X
39 Missouri SECSEC 65 7 4 X X X
40 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 64 9 2 <1% X <1%
41 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 63 8 3 X X X
42 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 63 9 2 <1% X <1%
43 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 62 7 4 X X X
44 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 62 7 4 X X X
45 Louisville ACCACC 62 7 4 X X X
46 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 61 7 4 <1% X <1%
47 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 60 8 3 <1% X <1%
48 Duke ACCACC 60 6 5 2% X <1%
49 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 59 6 5 X X X
50 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 59 8 4 - - X
51 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 59 8 3 X X X
52 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 7 4 X X X
53 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 56 6 5 X X X
54 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 55 6 5 X X X
55 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 55 4 7 X X X
56 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 54 9 3 - - X
57 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 53 5 6 X X X
58 Auburn SECSEC 52 5 6 X X X
59 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 52 8 3 X X X
60 Clemson ACCACC 51 6 5 X X X
61 South Carolina SECSEC 51 4 7 X X X
62 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 5 6 X X X
63 Kentucky SECSEC 51 5 6 X X X
64 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 51 5 6 X X X
65 Florida St. ACCACC 50 5 6 X X X
66 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 7 4 X X X
67 Baylor Big 12Big 12 50 5 6 X X X
68 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 49 7 4 X X X
69 Western Michigan MACMAC 49 8 4 X X X
70 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 48 5 6 X X X
71 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 48 6 5 X X X
72 California ACCACC 48 6 5 X X X
73 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 48 5 6 X X X
74 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 47 7 4 X X X
75 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 47 4 7 X X X
76 Florida SECSEC 47 3 8 X X X
77 Kansas Big 12Big 12 47 5 6 X X X
78 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 46 7 4 X X X
79 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 45 7 4 X X X
80 UCLA Big 10Big 10 44 3 8 X X X
81 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 44 6 5 X X X
82 Stanford ACCACC 44 4 7 X X X
83 Ohio MACMAC 43 7 4 X X X
84 Central Michigan MACMAC 42 7 4 X X X
85 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 5 6 X X X
86 UCF Big 12Big 12 42 5 6 X X X
87 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 4 X X X
88 Toledo MACMAC 42 7 4 X X X
89 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 5 X X X
90 Colorado Big 12Big 12 41 3 8 X X X
91 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 6 X X X
92 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 40 6 5 X X X
93 Maryland Big 10Big 10 39 4 7 X X X
94 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 39 5 6 X X X
95 Miami OH MACMAC 38 6 5 X X X
96 Syracuse ACCACC 38 3 8 X X X
97 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 37 6 5 X X X
98 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 37 5 6 X X X
99 Virginia Tech ACCACC 36 3 8 X X X
100 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 36 5 6 X X X
101 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 4 7 X X X
102 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 34 5 6 X X X
103 North Carolina ACCACC 34 4 7 X X X
104 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 9 X X X
105 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 33 3 8 X X X
106 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 5 6 X X X
107 Arkansas SECSEC 32 2 9 X X X
108 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 5 6 X X X
109 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 29 5 6 X X X
110 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 28 4 7 X X X
111 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 27 3 8 X X X
112 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 27 4 7 X X X
113 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 22 4 7 X X X
114 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 22 4 7 X X X
115 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 22 3 8 X X X
116 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 22 4 7 X X X
117 Buffalo MACMAC 21 5 6 X X X
118 Kent State MACMAC 20 4 7 X X X
119 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 19 3 8 X X X
120 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 19 3 8 X X X
121 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 17 3 8 X X X
122 Ball State MACMAC 17 4 7 X X X
123 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 17 2 9 X X X
124 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 16 2 9 X X X
125 Akron MACMAC 16 5 7 - - X
126 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 14 1 10 X X X
127 Boston College ACCACC 13 1 10 X X X
128 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 13 4 8 - - X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 1 10 X X X
130 Bowling Green MACMAC 11 4 8 - - X
131 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 9 1 10 X X X
132 Northern Illinois MACMAC 9 3 8 X X X
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 6 2 9 X X X
134 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 3 2 9 X X X
135 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 3 2 9 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -17 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot