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Sun Sep 15 5:15 pm

NCAA Football - Week 4 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Texas SECSEC 82 3 0 >99% 97% 42%
2 Georgia SECSEC 81 3 0 100% >99% 40%
3 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 81 2 0 100% 100% 41%
4 Alabama SECSEC 80 3 0 >99% 96% 36%
5 Ole Miss SECSEC 80 3 0 100% >99% 38%
6 Tennessee SECSEC 79 3 0 100% >99% 35%
7 Missouri SECSEC 78 3 0 100% 98% 34%
8 Miami ACCACC 78 3 0 100% >99% 34%
9 Oregon Big 10Big 10 77 3 0 100% 98% 33%
10 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 77 2 0 100% 99% 33%
 
11 USC Big 10Big 10 76 2 0 100% >99% 34%
12 Utah Big 12Big 12 76 3 0 100% >99% 30%
13 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 75 3 0 100% 99% 29%
14 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 75 3 0 100% 99% 28%
15 Oklahoma SECSEC 74 3 0 100% 99% 25%
16 LSU SECSEC 73 2 1 100% >99% 26%
17 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 73 2 1 >99% 89% 24%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 72 2 1 100% >99% 24%
19 Louisville ACCACC 72 2 0 100% >99% 26%
20 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 71 2 0 100% 99% 25%
21 Clemson ACCACC 70 1 1 >99% 97% 22%
22 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 70 3 0 100% 98% 20%
23 Northern Illinois MACMAC 69 2 0 >99% 77% 23%
24 Illinois Big 10Big 10 69 3 0 100% 98% 18%
25 Texas A&M SECSEC 68 2 1 100% 99% 18%
26 North Carolina ACCACC 68 3 0 >99% 76% 18%
27 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 68 3 0 >99% 94% 19%
28 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 68 3 0 >99% 89% 19%
29 UCF Big 12Big 12 68 3 0 >99% 82% 20%
30 Indiana Big 10Big 10 68 3 0 >99% 84% 18%
31 Pittsburgh ACCACC 68 3 0 >99% 83% 17%
32 BYU Big 12Big 12 68 3 0 >99% 95% 18%
33 California ACCACC 68 4 0 99% 70% 18%
34 Syracuse ACCACC 68 2 0 >99% 83% 19%
35 Duke ACCACC 68 3 0 >99% 72% 16%
36 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 68 3 0 54% 7% 8%
37 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 68 3 0 99% 73% 19%
38 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 65 2 0 100% 99% 16%
39 Maryland Big 10Big 10 65 2 1 >99% 82% 11%
40 Georgia Tech ACCACC 62 3 1 98% 67% 8%
41 Toledo MACMAC 61 3 0 95% 53% 10%
42 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 60 3 0 90% 28% 9%
43 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 59 2 1 >99% 86% 8%
44 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 59 3 0 93% 44% 9%
45 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 59 2 0 99% 63% 10%
46 Washington Big 10Big 10 59 2 1 100% 94% 7%
47 Colorado Big 12Big 12 59 2 1 >99% 89% 7%
48 TCU Big 12Big 12 58 2 1 98% 61% 6%
49 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 58 2 1 >99% 90% 6%
50 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 57 2 0 64% 9% 5%
51 Virginia Tech ACCACC 57 2 1 >99% 79% 6%
52 Baylor Big 12Big 12 56 2 1 >99% 81% 6%
53 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 56 2 0 98% 61% 8%
54 UCLA Big 10Big 10 56 1 1 >99% 93% 6%
55 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 55 2 1 >99% 88% 5%
56 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 55 3 0 54% 9% 4%
57 Boston College ACCACC 55 2 1 >99% 83% 6%
58 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 54 3 0 66% 11% 4%
59 Vanderbilt SECSEC 54 2 1 >99% 76% 5%
60 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 54 2 0 90% 30% 6%
61 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 54 1 1 80% 26% 5%
62 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 54 2 1 >99% 87% 4%
63 Arkansas SECSEC 53 2 1 >99% 69% 4%
64 Virginia ACCACC 53 2 1 >99% 82% 5%
65 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 53 2 1 >99% 78% 4%
66 SMU ACCACC 53 2 1 99% 61% 4%
67 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 53 2 0 75% 14% 4%
68 South Carolina SECSEC 53 2 1 96% 41% 2%
69 Arizona Big 12Big 12 52 2 1 >99% 85% 3%
70 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 52 2 1 58% 9% 2%
71 N.C. State ACCACC 52 2 1 >99% 75% 3%
72 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 52 2 1 31% 4% 2%
73 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 52 2 1 68% 12% 3%
74 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 51 2 1 85% 23% 3%
75 Iowa Big 10Big 10 51 2 1 >99% 76% 3%
76 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 51 2 1 48% 7% 2%
77 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 50 2 1 82% 21% 3%
78 Ohio MACMAC 49 2 1 53% 8% 2%
79 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 48 2 1 32% 3% 1%
80 Purdue Big 10Big 10 48 1 1 100% 98% 2%
81 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 48 2 1 68% 12% 2%
82 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 48 2 1 60% 8% 2%
83 Houston Big 12Big 12 48 1 2 99% 66% 2%
84 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 48 2 1 64% 13% 2%
85 Buffalo MACMAC 47 2 1 71% 20% 2%
86 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 2 1 34% 3% 1%
87 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 45 2 1 65% 10% 1%
88 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 45 1 2 99% 69% 1%
89 Auburn SECSEC 43 2 2 98% 60% 1%
90 Kansas Big 12Big 12 43 1 2 99% 68% 1%
91 Bowling Green MACMAC 42 1 1 59% 11% 1%
92 Stanford ACCACC 42 1 1 >99% 80% 1%
93 Ball State MACMAC 42 1 1 83% 25% 1%
94 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 2 1 48% 5% 1%
95 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 40 1 1 88% 29% 1%
96 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 40 1 2 97% 45% <1%
97 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 39 1 2 12% <1% <1%
98 Kentucky SECSEC 38 1 2 25% 2% <1%
99 Akron MACMAC 37 1 2 56% 12% <1%
100 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 37 1 2 23% 2% <1%
101 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 36 1 2 1% X <1%
102 Florida SECSEC 36 1 2 83% 17% <1%
103 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 36 1 2 11% <1% <1%
104 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 1 2 33% 3% <1%
105 Western Michigan MACMAC 35 1 2 33% 4% <1%
106 Wake Forest ACCACC 35 1 2 80% 14% <1%
107 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 1 2 40% 4% <1%
108 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 34 1 1 16% 1% <1%
109 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 34 1 2 2% <1% <1%
110 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 33 1 2 6% <1% <1%
111 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 32 1 2 16% 1% <1%
112 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 32 1 2 17% 1% <1%
113 Central Michigan MACMAC 31 1 2 25% 3% <1%
114 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 1 2 16% 1% <1%
115 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 30 1 2 9% <1% <1%
116 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 30 1 2 8% <1% <1%
117 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 30 1 2 7% <1% <1%
118 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 29 1 2 27% 2% <1%
119 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 28 1 2 16% 1% <1%
120 Florida St. ACCACC 27 0 3 18% 1% <1%
121 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 27 1 2 2% <1% <1%
122 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 27 1 2 14% 1% <1%
123 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 26 1 3 4% <1% <1%
124 Miami OH MACMAC 24 0 2 47% 8% <1%
125 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 24 0 3 5% <1% <1%
126 UMass NCAA IndependentsInd. 23 0 3 <1% X <1%
127 Kent State MACMAC 19 0 3 8% <1% <1%
128 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 19 0 3 1% <1% <1%
129 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 19 0 3 16% 1% <1%
130 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 17 0 3 4% <1% <1%
131 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 17 0 3 <1% X <1%
132 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 15 0 3 3% <1% <1%
133 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 13 0 3 1% <1% <1%
134 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 7 0 3 <1% X <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot