PlayoffStatus.com↓≡

Home ► NCAA Football ► NCAA Football Participation Probabilities
Sat Nov 7 10:30 am

NCAA Football - Week 10 of 13

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Miami ACCACC 101 8 0 100% 100% 92%
2 Georgia SECSEC 100 7 1 100% 100% 86%
3 Utah Big 12Big 12 99 8 0 100% 100% 82%
4 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 98 7 1 100% >99% 88%
5 UCLA Big 10Big 10 96 8 0 100% >99% 75%
6 Indiana Big 10Big 10 95 8 1 100% 95% 73%
7 BYU Big 12Big 12 94 7 1 100% 99% 67%
8 Kentucky SECSEC 93 7 1 100% >99% 63%
9 Alabama SECSEC 93 6 2 100% 95% 67%
10 Texas SECSEC 90 6 2 100% 96% 55%
11 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 89 6 2 100% 91% 49%
 
12 Ole Miss SECSEC 88 6 2 >99% 75% 44%
13 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 87 7 1 >99% 72% 42%
14 Wake Forest ACCACC 86 7 1 100% 67% 44%
15 LSU SECSEC 85 6 2 >99% 82% 33%
16 Tennessee SECSEC 83 6 2 >99% 77% 28%
17 Houston Big 12Big 12 82 6 2 92% 26% 23%
18 USC Big 10Big 10 81 7 2 97% 18% 13%
19 Missouri SECSEC 80 6 2 >99% 72% 18%
20 Boise State PAC 12PAC 12 79 7 1 77% 45% 42%
21 Iowa Big 10Big 10 77 6 2 69% 9% 10%
22 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 79 8 1 97% 65% 49%
23 South Carolina SECSEC 75 5 3 65% 5% 7%
24 Arizona Big 12Big 12 77 7 2 60% 6% 8%
25 Florida SECSEC 74 5 3 35% 3% 3%
26 Oregon Big 10Big 10 71 5 3 59% 3% 4%
27 SMU ACCACC 70 7 2 77% 23% 8%
28 Duke ACCACC 69 6 2 85% 11% 3%
29 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 69 6 2 43% 2% 2%
30 Oklahoma SECSEC 69 4 4 46% 2% 2%
31 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 67 5 3 22% <1% 2%
32 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 67 5 3 13% <1% <1%
33 Louisville ACCACC 66 5 3 21% 7% 2%
34 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 66 4 4 <1% X <1%
35 Clemson ACCACC 66 5 3 1% <1% <1%
36 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 65 7 2 13% 1% 2%
37 Michigan Big 10Big 10 65 5 3 5% <1% <1%
38 Illinois Big 10Big 10 65 6 3 24% <1% 1%
39 Pittsburgh ACCACC 64 6 3 2% X <1%
40 Auburn SECSEC 64 4 4 <1% X <1%
41 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 63 5 3 35% <1% 2%
42 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 63 5 3 46% 2% 1%
43 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 63 6 2 25% 6% 3%
44 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 63 7 2 12% 1% 2%
45 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 63 8 2 4% <1% 1%
46 Louisiana Tech SunbeltSunbelt 62 6 2 12% 1% 2%
47 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 61 5 3 10% <1% <1%
48 Baylor Big 12Big 12 60 5 3 84% 1% 1%
49 Virginia Tech ACCACC 60 6 3 2% X <1%
50 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 60 7 1 3% <1% <1%
51 Texas A&M SECSEC 59 4 4 <1% X <1%
52 North Dakota St. Mountain WestMntn West 59 7 2 <1% X <1%
53 North Carolina ACCACC 59 4 4 X X X
54 Washington Big 10Big 10 58 5 3 <1% X <1%
55 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 57 4 4 5% <1% <1%
56 Ohio MACMAC 55 7 2 1% <1% <1%
57 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 54 6 2 <1% X <1%
58 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 53 6 3 1% X <1%
59 Toledo MACMAC 53 7 2 <1% X <1%
60 UCF Big 12Big 12 53 4 4 1% X <1%
61 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 53 4 4 X X X
62 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 52 5 3 <1% X <1%
63 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 52 6 2 2% X <1%
64 Oregon St. PAC 12PAC 12 52 5 3 7% <1% <1%
65 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 52 5 4 X X X
66 Western Michigan MACMAC 52 6 3 <1% X <1%
67 Boston College ACCACC 52 4 4 X X X
68 Purdue Big 10Big 10 51 3 5 4% X <1%
69 Stanford ACCACC 51 4 5 X X X
70 Fresno State PAC 12PAC 12 51 5 3 <1% X <1%
71 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 50 4 4 1% X <1%
72 Arkansas SECSEC 50 3 5 X X X
73 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 50 5 3 3% <1% <1%
74 Syracuse ACCACC 50 4 4 X X X
75 Texas St. PAC 12PAC 12 49 4 4 X X X
76 N.C. State ACCACC 48 4 4 <1% X <1%
77 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 6 3 <1% X <1%
78 TCU Big 12Big 12 48 4 5 X X X
79 Vanderbilt SECSEC 48 3 5 X X X
80 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 47 5 3 <1% X <1%
81 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 4 4 <1% X <1%
82 Buffalo MACMAC 46 6 3 X X X
83 Florida St. ACCACC 45 3 5 X X X
84 Colorado Big 12Big 12 45 3 5 <1% X <1%
85 Virginia ACCACC 45 4 5 X X X
86 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 44 5 3 <1% X <1%
87 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 44 4 4 <1% X <1%
88 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 44 4 4 X X X
89 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 44 5 3 <1% X <1%
90 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 43 4 4 X X X
91 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 42 5 3 <1% X <1%
92 California ACCACC 42 3 6 X X X
93 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 5 4 <1% X <1%
94 San Diego State PAC 12PAC 12 41 4 5 X X X
95 Kansas Big 12Big 12 41 3 5 X X X
96 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 39 2 6 X X X
97 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 39 4 4 X X X
98 Miami OH MACMAC 38 5 4 X X X
99 Central Michigan MACMAC 37 4 5 X X X
100 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 4 4 X X X
101 Colorado St. PAC 12PAC 12 35 3 5 X X X
102 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 34 4 4 X X X
103 Utah St. PAC 12PAC 12 34 3 5 X X X
104 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 33 4 4 X X X
105 Georgia Tech ACCACC 32 2 6 X X X
106 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 32 4 4 X X X
107 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 32 4 4 X X X
108 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 31 4 5 X X X
109 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 31 4 4 X X X
110 Maryland Big 10Big 10 30 2 6 X X X
111 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 29 3 5 X X X
112 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 29 4 4 X X X
113 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 29 2 6 X X X
114 UMass MACMAC 28 5 4 X X X
115 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 27 3 5 X X X
116 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 26 2 6 X X X
117 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 25 3 6 X X X
118 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 25 3 5 X X X
119 Ball State MACMAC 24 3 6 X X X
120 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 23 4 6 X X X
121 Kent State MACMAC 23 3 6 X X X
122 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 21 3 6 X X X
123 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 21 3 5 X X X
124 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 20 3 5 X X X
125 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 16 2 7 X X X
126 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 15 2 6 X X X
127 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 15 2 6 X X X
128 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 15 1 7 X X X
129 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 14 2 6 X X X
130 Washington St. PAC 12PAC 12 12 1 8 X X X
131 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 1 7 X X X
132 UTEP Mountain WestMntn West 11 1 7 X X X
133 Bowling Green MACMAC 11 2 7 X X X
134 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 6 1 7 X X X
135 Akron MACMAC 6 1 8 X X X
136 Sacramento St. MACMAC 4 2 8 X X X
137 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 1 1 7 X X X
138 Northern Illinois Mountain WestMntn West -1 0 8 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot