How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Texas | 3 | 0 | 6% | 10% | 17% | 30% | 42% |
| Alabama | 3 | 0 | 6% | 10% | 16% | 28% | 36% |
| USC | 2 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 24% | 34% |
| Oregon | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 23% | 33% |
| Penn St. | 2 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 33% |
| Georgia | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 25% | 40% |
| Missouri | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 11% | 22% | 34% |
| Utah | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 30% |
| Ohio St. | 2 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 41% |
| Kansas St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 29% |
| Oklahoma St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 28% |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 18% | 25% |
| UCF | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 20% |
| Syracuse | 2 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 19% |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 19% |
| Ole Miss | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 22% | 38% |
| Miami | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 34% |
| Tennessee | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Northern Illinois | 2 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 23% |
| Iowa St. | 2 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 25% |
| Arizona St. | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 19% |
| UNLV | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 19% |
| California | 4 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 18% |
| Indiana | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 18% |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 17% |
| North Carolina | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 18% |
| BYU | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 18% |
| Duke | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 16% |
| Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 24% |
| Louisville | 2 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 26% |
| Nebraska | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 20% |
| Illinois | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 18% |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 24% |
| LSU | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 26% |
| Clemson | 1 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 22% |
| Rutgers | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% |
| Toledo | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 10% |
| James Madison | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 10% |
| Coastal Carolina | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% |
| Washington St. | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% |
| Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 11% |
| San José State | 3 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% |
| LA Monroe | 2 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% |
| Texas A&M | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 18% |
| Texas Tech | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 8% |
| Georgia Tech | 3 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Colorado | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% |
| Washington | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% |
| Baylor | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Boston College | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| TCU | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| UL Lafayette | 2 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Virginia Tech | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Black Knights | 2 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| UCLA | 1 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Vanderbilt | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Boise State | 1 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Memphis | 3 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Liberty | 3 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Virginia | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Arkansas | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| SMU | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Minnesota | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Navy | 2 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Arizona | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Georgia St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Iowa | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| N.C. State | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| South Florida | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Ohio | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Sam Houston | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| South Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| W. Kentucky | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Arkansas St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Buffalo | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Fresno State | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Oregon St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Texas St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Houston | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Purdue | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Auburn | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Ga. Southern | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| North Texas | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Ball State | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Bowling Green | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Kansas | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Marshall | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Stanford | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| West Virginia | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| East Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Air Force | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawaii | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kentucky | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San Diego State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulane | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UAB | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTSA | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida St. | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 0 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UMass | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |