How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Notre Dame | 6 | 0 | 8% | 15% | 29% | 56% | 76% |
| Georgia | 6 | 0 | 8% | 15% | 29% | 55% | 69% |
| Miami | 5 | 0 | 8% | 14% | 28% | 52% | 68% |
| Alabama | 5 | 1 | 6% | 12% | 22% | 40% | 55% |
| Indiana | 6 | 0 | 6% | 11% | 22% | 43% | 57% |
| Texas | 4 | 1 | 5% | 10% | 20% | 39% | 54% |
| BYU | 5 | 0 | 5% | 10% | 19% | 37% | 50% |
| Texas Tech | 5 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 17% | 33% | 44% |
| UCLA | 5 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 17% | 31% | 43% |
| Ohio St. | 5 | 1 | 4% | 9% | 19% | 42% | 59% |
| Utah | 5 | 0 | 3% | 7% | 14% | 29% | 41% |
| Ole Miss | 4 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 14% | 31% | 45% |
| Missouri | 5 | 1 | 3% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 35% |
| Kentucky | 5 | 1 | 3% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 30% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 4 | 1 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 27% |
| Tennessee | 5 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 33% |
| Wake Forest | 5 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 24% |
| Oklahoma St. | 4 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 26% |
| Iowa | 5 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 26% |
| Houston | 5 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 20% |
| USC | 6 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 18% |
| James Madison | 6 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 22% |
| Boise State | 5 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 29% |
| LSU | 4 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 17% |
| Baylor | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% |
| SMU | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 17% |
| UTSA | 5 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 20% |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 15% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% |
| Oregon | 3 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% |
| Florida | 4 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% |
| Arizona | 5 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Duke | 4 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Memphis | 5 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Florida Atlantic | 4 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| Clemson | 3 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Minnesota | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| North Carolina | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Auburn | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| New Mexico | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Michigan | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Purdue | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| California | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% |
| North Texas | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% |
| Virginia | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% |
| North Dakota St. | 5 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Oregon St. | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Air Force | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Virginia Tech | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| South Carolina | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Fresno State | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Georgia St. | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| South Alabama | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| UNLV | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Arizona St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| East Carolina | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Louisville | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| N.C. State | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Liberty | 5 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Florida | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Toledo | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UMass | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Black Knights | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida St. | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Illinois | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marshall | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Penn St. | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UAB | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UCF | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 3 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West Virginia | 3 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas St. | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boston College | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado St. | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Delaware | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia Tech | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Maryland | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Michigan St. | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Navy | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico St. | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San Diego State | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stanford | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Syracuse | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TCU | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas St. | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulane | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| W. Kentucky | 2 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ball State | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawaii | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rutgers | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sacramento St. | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sam Houston | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington St. | 1 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 0 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LA Monroe | 0 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 0 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |