How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Ole Miss | 5 | 0 | 6% | 12% | 21% | 39% | 52% |
| Ohio St. | 4 | 0 | 6% | 11% | 21% | 42% | 57% |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 0 | 6% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 48% |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 0 | 6% | 10% | 19% | 34% | 46% |
| Miami | 4 | 0 | 5% | 10% | 19% | 39% | 54% |
| Indiana | 5 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 17% | 31% | 42% |
| Oregon | 5 | 0 | 4% | 9% | 19% | 39% | 54% |
| Iowa St. | 5 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 24% | 33% |
| Alabama | 3 | 1 | 3% | 7% | 14% | 28% | 39% |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 37% |
| Vanderbilt | 5 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 29% |
| LSU | 4 | 1 | 3% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 34% |
| Georgia Tech | 5 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 30% |
| BYU | 4 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 22% |
| Georgia | 3 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 11% | 25% | 37% |
| Tennessee | 4 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Michigan | 3 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 24% |
| Texas | 3 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 11% | 28% | 41% |
| Missouri | 5 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 24% |
| Houston | 4 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 14% | 21% |
| Louisville | 4 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 20% |
| Memphis | 5 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 20% |
| Maryland | 4 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 18% |
| North Texas | 5 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 20% |
| Arizona St. | 4 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 19% |
| Illinois | 4 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 17% |
| Navy | 4 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 19% |
| Tulane | 4 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 19% |
| Penn St. | 3 | 1 | 1% | 4% | 10% | 29% | 44% |
| Florida St. | 3 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 29% |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 25% |
| Virginia | 4 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 19% |
| USC | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 4 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% |
| California | 4 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| South Florida | 3 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| Arizona | 3 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| TCU | 3 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| Utah | 4 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Duke | 3 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Minnesota | 3 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Washington | 3 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| UNLV | 4 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Nebraska | 3 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Fresno State | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Boise State | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| San Diego State | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Auburn | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Old Dominion | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Kansas | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| New Mexico | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Louisiana Tech | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Iowa | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| LA Monroe | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| South Carolina | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Baylor | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| East Carolina | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| James Madison | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Syracuse | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Texas St. | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| UCF | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Temple | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| N.C. State | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Rice | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Utah St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| UTSA | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| W. Kentucky | 4 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Colorado | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| North Carolina | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Purdue | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| SMU | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| UAB | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Virginia Tech | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Hawaii | 4 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Delaware | 3 | 1 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kennesaw St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rutgers | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southern Miss | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Toledo | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 3 | 2 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington St. | 3 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Buffalo | 2 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Coastal Carolina | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 2 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas St. | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kentucky | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marshall | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 2 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico St. | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stanford | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West Virginia | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Air Force | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas St. | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 1 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Black Knights | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boston College | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Clemson | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado St. | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia St. | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami OH | 1 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 1 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma St. | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 1 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oregon St. | 0 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sam Houston | 0 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCLA | 0 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UMass | 0 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |