How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Texas | 3 | 0 | 6% | 12% | 21% | 37% | 48% |
| Notre Dame | 3 | 0 | 6% | 10% | 19% | 35% | 49% |
| Ole Miss | 3 | 0 | 5% | 10% | 18% | 32% | 42% |
| Miami | 3 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 17% | 32% | 41% |
| Alabama | 3 | 0 | 5% | 9% | 16% | 28% | 36% |
| BYU | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 14% | 27% | 37% |
| USC | 4 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 22% | 29% |
| Penn St. | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 13% | 22% | 29% |
| Michigan | 3 | 0 | 4% | 6% | 11% | 18% | 24% |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 12% | 24% | 33% |
| Florida | 3 | 0 | 3% | 6% | 10% | 17% | 23% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 19% |
| Duke | 3 | 0 | 3% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 21% |
| Georgia | 3 | 0 | 2% | 6% | 14% | 32% | 45% |
| Indiana | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 13% | 28% | 40% |
| LSU | 2 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 23% | 34% |
| Tennessee | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 30% |
| Missouri | 3 | 0 | 2% | 5% | 9% | 17% | 23% |
| Ohio St. | 2 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 11% | 27% | 39% |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 19% |
| UCLA | 3 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 16% |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 16% |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 0 | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 16% |
| Utah | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 28% |
| Iowa | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 25% |
| Louisville | 2 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 17% | 27% |
| West Virginia | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 16% |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 14% |
| Tulsa | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 17% |
| James Madison | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 16% |
| Kansas St. | 3 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 14% |
| Oregon | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 21% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 2 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 14% |
| SMU | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 19% |
| Texas A&M | 2 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 16% |
| Washington | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% |
| South Florida | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% |
| Nebraska | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 11% |
| Houston | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 17% |
| Kentucky | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 12% |
| Michigan St. | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 11% |
| Auburn | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 3 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| North Dakota St. | 4 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| UCF | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Clemson | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Florida Atlantic | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Oklahoma St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Maryland | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| California | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| UTSA | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| Colorado | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Marshall | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Minnesota | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| South Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Arizona St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Illinois | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Virginia | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Baylor | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| North Carolina | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| Boston College | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Fresno State | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Iowa St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| TCU | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| Memphis | 3 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| UMass | 3 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Arizona | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| UL Lafayette | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Western Michigan | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Tulane | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Georgia St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| New Mexico | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| South Alabama | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Boise State | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Central Michigan | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Colorado St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Delaware | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Toledo | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Troy | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| East Carolina | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| N.C. State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Navy | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Purdue | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Stanford | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 2 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 2 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Air Force | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ball State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Black Knights | 1 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia Tech | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Hawaii | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Texas | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Oregon St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sacramento St. | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sam Houston | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San Diego State | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Syracuse | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UAB | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UNLV | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington St. | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 1 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bowling Green | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LA Monroe | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rutgers | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| W. Kentucky | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |