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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the NCAA Hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.




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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

  Record  NCAA Hockey
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Frozen Four Participate Round 2 Round 1
Team W L T Pts
Harvard 9 1 2 20 12% 21% 38% 66% 98%
Minnesota State 13 4 0 26 10% 19% 34% 62% 98%
Nebraska-Omaha 10 4 2 22 10% 18% 34% 60% 98%
Minnesota-Duluth 12 6 0 24 9% 18% 33% 61% 98%
Michigan Tech 13 3 0 26 8% 16% 30% 56% 95%
Bowling Green 11 3 2 24 7% 14% 28% 54% 95%
Miami 11 5 0 22 7% 13% 26% 51% 91%
Boston University 11 3 2 24 5% 11% 21% 43% 83%
North Dakota 13 4 2 28 5% 10% 21% 43% 85%
Vermont 13 3 1 27 5% 9% 19% 39% 75%
Minnesota 9 4 1 19 4% 7% 16% 33% 70%
Mass.-Lowell 10 3 3 23 3% 6% 14% 28% 59%
Denver 10 5 0 20 2% 5% 11% 24% 53%
Quinnipiac 10 5 1 21 2% 4% 9% 20% 45%
Providence 9 6 1 19 2% 4% 9% 20% 45%
Yale 6 3 2 14 2% 4% 9% 19% 41%
Merrimack 10 5 2 22 2% 3% 8% 18% 39%
Penn State 9 4 2 20 1% 3% 8% 18% 45%
Dartmouth 6 4 1 13 1% 2% 5% 12% 30%
Colgate 9 6 1 19 1% 2% 4% 9% 22%
Robert Morris 11 2 3 25 1% 1% 4% 9% 33%
Cornell 5 5 1 11 < 1% 1% 3% 6% 16%
Mercyhurst 8 5 2 18 < 1% 1% 2% 6% 25%
St. Cloud State 6 9 1 13 < 1% 1% 2% 6% 15%
Michigan 8 7 0 16 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 18%
Boston College 9 7 1 19 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 12%
Union 9 6 1 19 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 11%
Northern Michigan 8 5 3 19 < 1% 1% 1% 4% 11%
St. Lawrence 8 8 1 17 < 1% 1% 1% 3% 10%
Holy Cross 7 5 4 18 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 14%
Bentley 9 8 2 20 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 11%
Ohio State 5 9 1 11 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 9%
Clarkson 6 8 4 16 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 5%
Bemidji State 5 10 3 13 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 5%
Ferris State 9 7 1 19 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 5%
Michigan State 6 9 1 13 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 5%
Notre Dame 8 8 2 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Western Michigan 6 8 2 14 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Canisius 6 6 5 17 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 5%
Air Force 5 10 2 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 5%
RIT 5 8 3 13 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4%
Sacred Heart 5 9 2 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4%
Connecticut 3 8 4 10 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2%
Rensselaer 6 12 1 13 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Northeastern 5 10 1 11 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Army 4 12 2 10 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Wisconsin 1 10 1 3 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Alaska 10 8 0 20 X X X X X
Alaska-Anchorage 5 7 4 14 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
New Hampshire 5 10 1 11 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Maine 4 13 1 9 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
American Int'l 2 11 4 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Massachusetts 4 12 0 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
UAH 3 13 2 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Colorado College 3 11 1 7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Niagara 3 12 1 7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Brown 3 8 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Lake Superior 3 17 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Princeton 2 10 1 5 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot