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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the NCAA Hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.




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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

  Record  NCAA Hockey
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Frozen Four Participate Round 2 Round 1
Team W L T Pts
Minnesota State 9 3 0 18 14% 25% 43% 71% 99%
Minnesota-Duluth 9 5 0 18 10% 19% 34% 61% 96%
Nebraska-Omaha 7 2 1 15 10% 18% 33% 59% 95%
Michigan Tech 10 2 0 20 9% 16% 30% 55% 93%
Bowling Green 10 3 1 21 8% 14% 28% 53% 92%
Miami 10 4 0 20 6% 13% 24% 48% 87%
Harvard 6 1 2 14 5% 10% 21% 41% 75%
Minnesota 7 3 0 14 5% 10% 20% 40% 78%
Boston University 8 2 1 17 4% 8% 16% 33% 65%
North Dakota 9 3 1 19 3% 7% 14% 30% 60%
Quinnipiac 8 3 1 17 3% 7% 14% 30% 59%
Mass.-Lowell 8 2 3 19 3% 6% 13% 27% 56%
Denver 8 3 0 16 3% 6% 12% 26% 53%
Vermont 9 3 1 19 3% 5% 11% 25% 50%
Yale 4 2 2 10 2% 5% 11% 24% 49%
Penn State 7 3 2 16 2% 4% 8% 18% 45%
St. Lawrence 8 5 1 17 2% 4% 8% 18% 39%
Colgate 9 4 1 19 2% 3% 8% 18% 38%
Providence 6 5 1 13 1% 3% 6% 13% 30%
Merrimack 8 4 1 17 1% 3% 6% 13% 29%
Northern Michigan 7 2 1 15 1% 2% 5% 13% 30%
St. Cloud State 5 6 1 11 1% 2% 4% 10% 24%
Boston College 7 5 0 14 1% 2% 4% 9% 21%
Robert Morris 8 1 3 19 1% 1% 4% 8% 31%
Clarkson 5 5 4 14 < 1% 1% 3% 7% 18%
Ferris State 7 6 0 14 < 1% 1% 3% 7% 18%
Mercyhurst 5 4 2 12 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 21%
Notre Dame 6 6 2 14 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 12%
Cornell 3 4 1 7 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 12%
Michigan 5 6 0 10 < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 13%
Dartmouth 2 3 1 5 < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 11%
Ohio State 4 7 1 9 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 11%
Rensselaer 6 7 1 13 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 8%
Bemidji State 3 9 0 6 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 8%
Bentley 5 7 1 11 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 12%
Connecticut 3 6 4 10 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 7%
Union 6 5 1 13 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 5%
Holy Cross 4 5 4 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 10%
Sacred Heart 5 6 2 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 8%
Air Force 4 7 2 10 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 8%
RIT 4 7 2 10 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 6%
Canisius 4 5 4 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 5%
Michigan State 4 7 0 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Alaska 6 6 0 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3%
Alaska-Anchorage 5 7 2 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Army 3 9 2 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Western Michigan 3 8 1 7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
American Int'l 2 8 2 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Niagara 3 9 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
New Hampshire 4 8 0 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
UAH 3 9 2 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Maine 3 9 1 7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Colorado College 3 8 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Lake Superior 3 11 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Massachusetts 3 8 0 6 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Northeastern 2 9 1 5 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Princeton 1 6 1 3 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Brown 1 6 0 2 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Wisconsin 0 8 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot