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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the NCAA Hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.




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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

  Record  NCAA Hockey
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Frozen Four Participate Round 2 Round 1
Team W L T Pts
Minnesota State 19 5 1 39 14% 24% 42% 71% > 99%
Boston University 15 4 4 34 9% 17% 32% 59% 98%
Nebraska-Omaha 15 6 3 33 8% 16% 30% 58% 98%
North Dakota 18 5 2 38 8% 15% 29% 56% 97%
Bowling Green 15 5 4 34 8% 15% 29% 55% 96%
Michigan Tech 18 7 1 37 7% 13% 26% 51% 95%
Harvard 12 4 2 26 7% 13% 25% 48% 86%
Minnesota-Duluth 14 9 1 29 6% 12% 25% 49% 91%
Miami 15 9 0 30 5% 9% 20% 42% 83%
Providence 16 8 1 33 4% 9% 18% 39% 79%
Denver 14 8 1 29 4% 8% 17% 36% 74%
Mass.-Lowell 15 7 3 33 3% 7% 15% 31% 65%
Michigan 15 7 0 30 3% 7% 14% 31% 67%
Boston College 15 8 2 32 3% 6% 13% 27% 58%
Vermont 15 8 2 32 2% 5% 11% 23% 49%
Quinnipiac 15 8 1 31 2% 3% 8% 16% 37%
Colgate 14 8 2 30 1% 3% 6% 13% 30%
Yale 11 6 2 24 1% 3% 6% 12% 27%
Minnesota 11 9 2 24 1% 2% 5% 11% 29%
Merrimack 13 8 3 29 1% 2% 5% 10% 23%
Robert Morris 17 5 4 38 1% 2% 4% 11% 39%
Penn State 12 7 4 28 1% 2% 4% 9% 25%
Western Michigan 11 10 3 25 < 1% 1% 3% 6% 14%
St. Lawrence 13 10 2 28 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 13%
St. Cloud State 10 13 1 21 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 10%
Mercyhurst 12 8 4 28 < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 19%
Canisius 12 8 6 30 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 12%
Michigan State 9 11 2 20 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 8%
Ohio State 7 13 2 16 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 7%
Northeastern 10 11 4 24 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 6%
Northern Michigan 9 9 6 24 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 6%
Bemidji State 9 12 3 21 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 6%
Clarkson 10 11 4 24 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 5%
Cornell 8 9 2 18 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 5%
Bentley 11 11 3 25 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 9%
Air Force 11 13 3 25 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 8%
RIT 9 11 4 22 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 7%
Union 12 10 2 26 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3%
Ferris State 11 13 1 23 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3%
Dartmouth 7 8 4 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3%
Holy Cross 8 12 5 21 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4%
Sacred Heart 7 15 4 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2%
Notre Dame 10 13 3 23 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Maine 10 15 1 21 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Connecticut 7 12 5 19 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Rensselaer 9 17 1 19 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Wisconsin 2 15 3 7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Alaska 12 13 1 25 X X X X X
Alaska-Anchorage 7 11 4 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
New Hampshire 8 14 2 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Massachusetts 8 16 1 17 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
UAH 7 16 3 17 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Lake Superior 7 20 1 15 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Army 5 16 2 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
American Int'l 3 18 5 11 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Colorado College 5 16 1 11 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Brown 4 15 0 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Niagara 3 19 2 8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Princeton 2 14 1 5 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot