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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the NCAA Hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.




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NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

  Record  NCAA Hockey
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Frozen Four Participate Round 2 Round 1
Team W L T Pts
Vermont 4 0 0 8 8% 14% 25% 44% 71%
Minnesota 4 0 0 8 8% 14% 25% 43% 76%
Michigan Tech 4 0 0 8 7% 13% 23% 40% 68%
Boston University 3 0 0 6 6% 11% 21% 36% 61%
Colgate 5 1 0 10 5% 10% 18% 33% 57%
Union 5 1 0 10 5% 9% 18% 32% 57%
Alaska 5 1 0 10 5% 9% 16% 31% 56%
Nebraska-Omaha 3 1 0 6 4% 9% 16% 31% 55%
Northern Michigan 4 0 0 8 4% 8% 15% 28% 51%
Merrimack 4 1 0 8 4% 7% 14% 27% 47%
Bowling Green 4 1 1 9 3% 7% 14% 26% 48%
St. Cloud State 2 2 0 4 3% 6% 13% 25% 46%
Denver 3 1 0 6 3% 6% 12% 24% 45%
Boston College 3 1 0 6 3% 6% 12% 23% 41%
Penn State 4 1 2 10 3% 6% 11% 21% 44%
North Dakota 4 1 1 9 3% 5% 11% 22% 43%
Minnesota State 4 2 0 8 2% 5% 11% 21% 40%
Robert Morris 5 0 1 11 2% 5% 10% 20% 42%
Miami 4 2 0 8 2% 5% 10% 20% 40%
Mass.-Lowell 3 1 1 7 2% 4% 9% 19% 36%
Minnesota-Duluth 3 3 0 6 2% 4% 8% 17% 34%
Alaska-Anchorage 3 1 2 8 1% 3% 7% 15% 31%
Brown 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 27%
New Hampshire 2 2 0 4 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Cornell 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Dartmouth 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Harvard 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Princeton 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Yale 0 0 0 0 1% 2% 5% 12% 26%
Canisius 4 2 0 8 1% 2% 5% 11% 28%
Mercyhurst 2 2 0 4 1% 2% 5% 10% 25%
Bemidji State 1 3 0 2 1% 2% 4% 10% 23%
Michigan 2 3 0 4 1% 2% 4% 9% 23%
Ferris State 2 3 0 4 1% 2% 4% 9% 21%
Clarkson 2 3 1 5 1% 2% 4% 8% 20%
St. Lawrence 3 3 0 6 1% 1% 3% 8% 18%
Connecticut 1 3 1 3 1% 1% 3% 8% 18%
Western Michigan 2 4 0 4 < 1% 1% 3% 7% 17%
Bentley 3 3 0 6 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 16%
Providence 1 2 1 3 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 14%
Quinnipiac 1 2 1 3 < 1% 1% 2% 5% 12%
Massachusetts 2 3 0 4 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 12%
Army 2 3 1 5 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 11%
RIT 2 3 0 4 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 10%
Notre Dame 4 2 0 8 < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 9%
Sacred Heart 2 4 0 4 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 10%
Michigan State 1 3 0 2 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 9%
Air Force 2 4 0 4 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 7%
Maine 1 4 1 3 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 7%
Ohio State 1 3 0 2 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 6%
Colorado College 2 4 0 4 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Holy Cross 1 4 1 3 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Wisconsin 0 4 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4%
Rensselaer 1 5 0 2 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2%
American Int'l 0 4 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Northeastern 0 4 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1%
Lake Superior 0 8 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Niagara 0 6 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
UAH 0 6 0 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot