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NCAA Hockey - Week 11 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Harvard ECAC 83 9 1 2 > 99% 98% X
2 Minnesota State WCHA 82 13 4 0 100% 98% X
3 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 82 12 6 0 100% 98% X
4 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 81 10 4 2 100% 98% X
5 Michigan Tech WCHA 79 13 3 0 100% 95% X
6 Bowling Green WCHA 78 11 3 2 > 99% 95% X
7 Miami NCHC 78 11 5 0 100% 91% X
8 North Dakota NCHC 74 13 4 2 100% 85% X
9 Boston University East 73 11 3 2 > 99% 83% X
10 Vermont East 72 13 3 1 100% 75% X
11 Minnesota Big 10 69 9 4 1 > 99% 70% X
12 Mass.-Lowell East 68 10 3 3 > 99% 59% X
13 Denver NCHC 67 10 5 0 100% 53% X
14 Providence East 64 9 6 1 > 99% 45% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
15 Quinnipiac ECAC 64 10 5 1 > 99% 45% X
16 Merrimack East 63 10 5 2 100% 39% X
17 Yale ECAC 63 6 3 2 > 99% 41% X
18 Penn State Big 10 62 9 4 2 > 99% 45% X
19 Dartmouth ECAC 59 6 4 1 > 99% 30% X
20 Colgate ECAC 58 9 6 1 > 99% 22% X
21 St. Cloud State NCHC 56 6 9 1 100% 15% X
22 Boston College East 55 9 7 1 > 99% 12% X
23 Cornell ECAC 54 5 5 1 > 99% 16% X
24 Alaska WCHA 54 10 8 0 X X X
25 Union ECAC 54 9 6 1 > 99% 11% X
26 Northern Michigan WCHA 53 8 5 3 100% 11% X
27 St. Lawrence ECAC 53 8 8 1 > 99% 10% X
28 Robert Morris Atlantic 52 11 2 3 93% 33% X
29 Michigan Big 10 52 8 7 0 > 99% 18% X
30 Bemidji State WCHA 51 5 10 3 > 99% 5% X
31 Clarkson ECAC 50 6 8 4 > 99% 5% X
32 Western Michigan NCHC 49 6 8 2 > 99% 4% X
33 Ferris State WCHA 49 9 7 1 > 99% 5% X
34 Mercyhurst Atlantic 49 8 5 2 36% 25% X
35 Notre Dame East 48 8 8 2 > 99% 4% X
36 Ohio State Big 10 46 5 9 1 99% 9% X
37 Connecticut East 43 3 8 4 98% 2% X
38 Northeastern East 41 5 10 1 > 99% 1% X
39 Holy Cross Atlantic 41 7 5 4 16% 14% X
40 Rensselaer ECAC 40 6 12 1 98% 1% X
41 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 39 5 7 4 99% < 1% X
42 Bentley Atlantic 39 9 8 2 1% 11% X
43 Michigan State Big 10 38 6 9 1 48% 5% X
44 Colorado College NCHC 35 3 11 1 > 99% < 1% X
45 New Hampshire East 33 5 10 1 99% < 1% X
46 Brown ECAC 32 3 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
47 UAH WCHA 31 3 13 2 82% < 1% X
48 Canisius Atlantic 30 6 6 5 < 1% 5% X
49 Air Force Atlantic 29 5 10 2 < 1% 5% X
50 Sacred Heart Atlantic 29 5 9 2 1% 4% X
51 RIT Atlantic 29 5 8 3 1% 4% X
52 Maine East 29 4 13 1 27% < 1% X
53 Princeton ECAC 28 2 10 1 95% < 1% X
54 Massachusetts East 26 4 12 0 62% < 1% X
55 Lake Superior WCHA 26 3 17 0 12% < 1% X
56 Wisconsin Big 10 23 1 10 1 98% 1% X
57 Army Atlantic 17 4 12 2 < 1% 1% X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 15 2 11 4 < 1% < 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 11 3 12 1 < 1% < 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot