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Sun Feb 19 6:45 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 22 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf PWR RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Denver NCHC 59 22 6 4 48 100% 100% 100%
2 Minnesota-Duluth Minn.-Duluth NCHC 58 19 5 6 44 100% 100% 100%
3 Harvard ECAC 57 20 5 2 42 100% >99% >99%
4 Minnesota Minn. Big 10 56 20 8 2 42 100% >99% 4%
5 Western Michigan NCHC 55 18 8 4 40 100% 98% 10%
6 Boston University Boston U. East 54 20 9 3 43 100% 97% 34%
7 Mass.-Lowell East 53 20 9 3 43 100% 92% 1%
8 Union ECAC 52 22 8 2 46 100% 94% 15%
9 Cornell ECAC 51 17 6 4 38 100% 85% <1%
10 Penn State Big 10 49 18 8 2 38 100% 77% X
11 Air Force Atlantic 48 21 8 5 47 96% 71% X
12 Providence Provid. East 48 18 9 5 41 100% 79% X
13 Ohio State Big 10 47 16 8 6 38 >99% 54% X
14 North Dakota NCHC 46 15 13 3 33 100% 41% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 35 Line Movers
15 Boston College East 45 18 12 4 40 >99% 45% X
16 Notre Dame East 44 18 9 5 41 >99% 36% X
17 Vermont East 44 17 10 5 39 >99% 43% X
18 St. Cloud State NCHC 43 15 14 1 31 100% 27% X
19 Nebraska-Omaha Nebr.-Omaha NCHC 41 15 12 5 35 100% 19% X
20 Wisconsin Wiscon. Big 10 40 17 10 1 35 100% 37% X
21 Northeastern N. Eastern East 39 15 12 5 35 52% 6% X
22 St. Lawrence St. Lawr. ECAC 38 15 10 7 37 36% 11% X
23 Quinnipiac Quinn. ECAC 37 17 13 2 36 <1% 6% X
24 Bemidji State WCHA 36 19 12 3 41 X 35% X
25 Canisius Atlantic 35 18 10 7 43 X 20% X
26 Minnesota State Minn. State WCHA 34 18 10 4 40 <1% 26% X
27 Clarkson ECAC 33 14 13 5 33 X 4% X
28 Michigan Tech Mich. Tech WCHA 32 17 12 7 41 X 23% X
29 Robert Morris Atlantic 31 17 11 4 38 X 16% X
30 Merrimack Merri. East 30 13 13 6 32 <1% 2% X
31 Army Atlantic 29 16 11 4 36 X 14% X
32 Miami NCHC 28 9 15 6 24 3% 1% X
33 Yale ECAC 27 11 11 5 27 X 2% X
34 Princeton ECAC 26 11 13 3 25 X 1% X
35 New Hampshire New Hamp. East 25 12 15 5 29 X 1% X
36 Connecticut Connect. East 24 10 14 8 28 X 1% X
37 Colorado College NCHC 23 7 20 3 17 X <1% X
38 Dartmouth Dartm. ECAC 22 10 14 3 23 X 1% X
39 Bentley Atlantic 21 11 15 6 28 X 4% X
40 Bowling Green WCHA 20 15 17 2 32 X 8% X
41 Holy Cross Atlantic 19 13 13 6 32 X 4% X
42 Michigan Big 10 18 9 16 3 21 X 2% X
43 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 17 8 19 3 19 - <1% -
44 Sacred Heart Atlantic 16 11 16 5 27 X 2% X
45 Mercyhurst Mercy. Atlantic 15 12 16 4 28 X 3% X
46 Maine East 14 10 18 4 24 X <1% X
47 Colgate ECAC 13 8 18 6 22 X <1% X
48 Ferris State WCHA 11 12 17 4 28 X 3% X
49 Lake Superior WCHA 11 11 15 6 28 X 2% X
50 RIT Atlantic 11 12 20 1 25 X 1% X
51 Michigan State Big 10 9 6 19 3 15 X 1% X
52 Northern Michigan N. Mich. WCHA 8 11 19 4 26 X 1% X
53 Alaska WCHA 7 10 18 4 24 X 1% X
54 Alaska-Anchorage Alaska-Anchor. WCHA 6 7 19 6 20 X <1% X
55 American Int'l Amer. Int'l Atlantic 5 7 18 7 21 X <1% X
56 UAH WCHA 4 9 20 3 21 X <1% X
57 Rensselaer Renss. ECAC 3 7 25 1 15 X <1% X
58 Massachusetts Mass. East 2 5 25 2 12 X <1% X
59 Brown ECAC 1 4 21 2 10 X <1% X
60 Niagara Atlantic 0 3 26 3 9 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot