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Fri Mar 24 5:30 am

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 60 26 9 1 53 - 100% -
2 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 59 30 4 3 63 - 100% -
3 Michigan Big 10Big 10 58 24 11 3 51 - 100% -
4 Denver NCHCNCHC 57 30 9 0 60 - 100% -
5 Boston University EastEast 56 27 10 0 54 - 100% -
6 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 55 24 12 3 51 - 100% -
7 Harvard ECACECAC 54 24 7 2 50 - 100% -
8 Penn State Big 10Big 10 52 21 15 1 43 - 100% -
9 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 52 20 15 3 43 - 100% -
10 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 50 24 10 4 52 - 100% -
11 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 50 25 12 1 51 - 100% -
12 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 50 23 14 1 47 - 100% -
13 Cornell ECACECAC 47 20 10 2 42 - 100% -
14 Merrimack EastEast 47 23 13 1 47 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
15 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 46 22 10 2 46 - X -
16 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 45 18 18 2 38 - X -
17 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 44 16 16 5 37 - X -
18 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 42 17 13 5 39 - X -
19 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 42 18 15 6 42 - X -
20 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 41 19 15 3 41 - X -
21 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 41 20 12 3 43 - X -
22 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 39 25 13 1 51 - X -
23 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 39 16 20 1 33 - X -
24 Providence EastEast 37 16 14 7 39 - X -
25 Colgate ECACECAC 35 19 15 5 43 - 100% -
26 Boston College EastEast 34 14 16 6 34 - X -
27 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 34 18 15 3 39 - X -
28 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 34 21 17 0 42 - X -
29 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 32 13 17 5 31 - X -
30 Maine EastEast 32 15 16 5 35 - X -
31 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 28 13 22 3 29 - X -
32 Clarkson ECACECAC 28 16 17 4 36 - X -
33 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 28 17 19 0 34 - X -
34 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 27 14 17 5 33 - X -
35 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 26 19 18 3 41 - X -
36 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 26 18 14 7 43 - X -
37 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 24 13 23 0 26 - X -
38 Ferris State CCHACCHA 23 14 19 4 32 - X -
39 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 22 15 19 2 32 - X -
40 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 22 18 21 0 36 - X -
41 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 20 20 18 3 43 - 100% -
42 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 19 17 17 3 37 - X -
43 Union ECACECAC 18 14 19 2 30 - X -
44 Princeton ECACECAC 17 13 19 0 26 - X -
45 Miami NCHCNCHC 16 8 24 4 20 - X -
46 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 15 17 21 3 37 - X -
47 Vermont EastEast 14 11 20 5 27 - X -
48 Brown ECACECAC 14 9 18 3 21 - X -
49 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 12 11 23 2 24 - X -
50 New Hampshire EastEast 11 11 21 3 25 - X -
51 Rensselaer ECACECAC 10 14 20 1 29 - X -
52 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 8 8 19 1 17 - X -
53 Army AtlanticAtlantic 8 14 19 4 32 - X -
54 Yale ECACECAC 6 8 20 4 20 - X -
55 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 6 10 23 3 23 - X -
56 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 6 11 21 2 24 - X -
57 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 4 9 25 2 20 - X -
58 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 4 12 22 2 26 - X -
59 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 7 22 1 15 - X -
60 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 1 5 22 1 11 - X -
61 Dartmouth ECACECAC 1 5 24 1 11 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot