Home >NCAA Hockey >NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities  Fri Sep 26 5:00 am 
Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments
So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Cornell. It was replaced by Vermont. Only one pair in error is not bad. Both teams were very close to the cutline with MWPs that differed by only a single point. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.
NCAA Hockey Rankings >NCAA Tournament Participation NCAA Tournament Seedings NCAA Tournament Performance NCAA Tournament Schedule NCAA Hockey Schedule PlayoffStatus.com Home NCAA Hockey Home Data may change several times on day of play Bookmark site for easy return 
NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
