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Sun Dec 9 5:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 11 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 59 13 2 0 26 100% >99% X
2 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 58 13 1 2 28 100% >99% X
3 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 57 14 2 0 28 100% 96% X
4 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 56 10 4 2 22 100% 91% X
5 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 55 14 3 0 28 100% 98% X
6 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 54 11 5 1 23 100% 85% X
7 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 53 9 4 3 21 100% 93% X
8 Denver NCHC NCHC 52 8 4 2 18 100% 77% X
9 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 12 6 0 24 100% 68% X
10 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 50 11 5 1 23 100% 73% X
11 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 49 9 4 3 21 100% 60% X
12 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 48 11 3 3 25 100% 66% X
13 Union ECAC ECAC 46 8 4 3 19 100% 51% X
14 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 46 10 3 1 21 100% 69% X
15 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 45 9 6 1 19 100% 43% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 34 Line Movers
16 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 44 9 7 1 19 100% 42% X
17 Yale ECAC ECAC 44 7 2 2 16 100% 61% X
18 Miami NCHC NCHC 42 9 6 3 21 100% 25% X
19 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 41 8 7 3 19 100% 22% X
20 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 39 9 6 1 19 100% 20% X
21 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 39 5 6 4 14 100% 16% X
22 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 38 9 6 1 19 >99% 16% X
23 Cornell ECAC ECAC 37 6 5 0 12 100% 19% X
24 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 37 9 6 0 18 100% 17% X
25 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 35 7 7 2 16 100% 6% X
26 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 34 7 7 2 16 100% 8% X
27 Harvard ECAC ECAC 33 5 4 2 12 100% 19% X
28 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 32 8 7 1 17 >99% 8% X
29 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 31 6 7 4 16 100% 7% X
30 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 30 9 7 0 18 93% 23% X
31 Boston College EastEast 29 6 6 2 14 100% 6% X
32 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 28 6 9 1 13 100% 4% X
33 Maine EastEast 27 5 7 2 12 100% 3% X
34 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 26 8 9 1 17 62% 14% X
35 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 25 7 7 1 15 >99% 17% X
36 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 24 4 7 5 13 99% 3% X
37 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 23 7 10 0 14 99% 5% X
38 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 21 8 8 2 18 93% 12% X
39 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 21 5 8 2 12 100% 3% X
40 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 20 4 5 1 9 100% 4% X
41 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 19 4 10 2 10 100% 2% X
42 Army Atlantic Atlantic 18 8 8 1 17 61% 10% X
43 Colgate ECAC ECAC 17 4 9 2 10 >99% 1% X
44 Princeton ECAC ECAC 16 3 8 1 7 >99% 3% X
45 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 16 7 8 1 15 67% 10% X
46 Vermont EastEast 14 5 8 1 11 >99% 1% X
47 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 13 6 8 1 13 86% 7% X
48 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 11 4 11 0 8 99% 1% X
49 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 11 5 8 2 12 82% 5% X
50 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 10 6 8 1 13 98% 5% X
51 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 10 5 11 1 11 96% <1% X
52 Alaska WCHA WCHA 8 4 12 2 10 38% <1% X
53 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 7 4 12 1 9 68% <1% X
54 Brown ECAC ECAC 6 2 6 3 7 >99% <1% X
55 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 5 5 10 1 11 8% 1% X
56 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 4 4 11 1 9 84% <1% X
57 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 3 3 12 1 7 51% <1% X
58 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 2 2 11 2 6 9% <1% X
59 UAH WCHA WCHA 1 2 14 0 4 27% <1% X
60 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 0 1 12 1 3 51% <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot