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Mon Mar 9 8:30 pm

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 59 26 5 4 56 100% 100% 100%
2 Minnesota State WCHAWCHA 58 31 5 2 64 100% 100% 100%
3 Cornell ECACECAC 57 23 2 4 50 100% 100% 100%
4 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 56 22 10 2 46 100% 100% 100%
5 Denver NCHCNCHC 55 21 9 6 48 100% 100% 100%
6 Boston College EastEast 54 24 8 2 50 100% 100% 100%
7 Penn State Big 10Big 10 53 20 10 4 44 100% 100% 100%
8 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 52 21 11 2 44 100% >99% >99%
9 Clarkson ECACECAC 51 23 8 3 49 100% 99% 84%
10 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 50 20 11 5 45 >99% >99% >99%
11 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 49 18 10 6 42 >99% 73% 9%
12 Bemidji State WCHAWCHA 47 22 10 5 49 94% 60% 1%
13 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 47 22 11 3 47 - 94% -
14 Michigan Big 10Big 10 46 18 14 4 40 63% 46% 22%
15 Maine EastEast 45 18 11 5 41 99% 43% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 18 Line Movers
16 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 43 18 13 5 41 99% 46% X
17 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 43 21 11 2 44 90% 45% X
18 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 43 16 14 7 39 32% 24% 2%
19 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 41 18 13 3 39 96% 21% X
20 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 40 15 15 7 37 - <1% -
21 Bowling Green WCHAWCHA 40 21 13 4 46 6% 10% X
22 Providence EastEast 38 16 12 6 38 43% 6% X
23 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 37 21 10 3 45 X 30% X
24 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 36 13 15 6 32 3% 4% X
25 Michigan Tech WCHAWCHA 35 21 15 3 45 X 6% X
26 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 34 21 12 1 43 X 24% X
27 Harvard ECACECAC 33 15 10 6 36 X 6% X
28 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 32 15 19 2 32 - X -
29 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 30 14 17 5 33 X 2% X
30 Boston University EastEast 28 13 13 8 34 X 5% X
31 New Hampshire EastEast 28 15 15 4 34 - X -
32 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 28 14 20 2 30 - X -
33 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 27 15 15 4 34 X 5% X
34 Northern Michigan WCHAWCHA 27 18 16 4 40 - X -
35 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 25 19 13 4 42 X 18% X
36 Rensselaer ECACECAC 24 17 15 2 36 X 5% X
37 Alaska WCHAWCHA 23 16 15 5 37 - X -
38 Army AtlanticAtlantic 23 17 13 3 37 X 15% X
39 Yale ECACECAC 22 15 15 2 32 X 2% X
40 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 20 11 20 3 25 X <1% X
41 Dartmouth ECACECAC 18 13 14 4 30 - X -
42 Colgate ECACECAC 17 12 16 8 32 X 1% X
43 Lake Superior WCHAWCHA 17 14 23 4 32 - X -
44 Miami NCHCNCHC 17 8 21 5 21 X <1% X
45 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 15 17 16 3 37 X 4% X
46 Merrimack EastEast 14 9 22 3 21 - X -
47 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 13 12 18 4 28 X 4% X
48 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 12 12 18 6 30 X 3% X
49 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 12 13 19 5 31 X 2% X
50 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 10 10 20 6 26 - X -
51 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 9 11 21 5 27 - X -
52 Vermont EastEast 8 5 23 6 16 - X -
53 Brown ECACECAC 7 8 21 2 18 - X -
54 Union ECACECAC 6 8 25 4 20 - X -
55 Princeton ECACECAC 5 6 20 5 17 X <1% X
56 Ferris State WCHAWCHA 5 7 26 2 16 - X -
57 Alaska-AnchorageAK-Anch WCHAWCHA 3 4 25 7 15 - X -
58 UAH WCHAWCHA 2 2 26 6 10 - X -
59 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 1 4 27 5 13 - X -
60 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 0 5 29 2 12 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot