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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Cornell. It was replaced by Vermont. Only one pair in error is not bad. Both teams were very close to the cutline with MWPs that differed by only a single point. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Union ECAC 83 28 6 4 - 100% -
2 Minnesota Big 10 82 25 6 6 - 100% -
3 Boston College East 81 26 7 4 - 100% -
4 Ferris State WCHA 73 28 10 3 - 100% -
5 Mass.-Lowell East 72 25 10 4 - 100% -
6 Quinnipiac ECAC 71 24 9 6 - 100% -
7 St. Cloud State NCHC 70 21 10 5 - 100% -
8 Wisconsin Big 10 70 24 10 2 - 100% -
9 Minnesota State WCHA 68 26 13 1 - 100% -
10 Notre Dame East 67 23 14 2 - 100% -
11 Providence East 67 21 10 6 - 100% -
12 Colgate ECAC 66 20 13 5 - 100% -
13 Cornell ECAC 65 17 10 5 - 100% -
14 North Dakota NCHC 65 22 13 3 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
15 Vermont East 64 20 14 3 - X -
16 New Hampshire East 62 22 18 1 - X -
17 Michigan Big 10 62 18 13 4 - X -
18 Yale ECAC 60 17 11 5 - X -
19 Northeastern East 60 19 14 4 - X -
20 Western Michigan NCHC 60 19 15 5 - X -
21 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 60 16 16 4 - X -
22 Denver NCHC 58 20 15 6 - 100% -
23 Ohio State Big 10 57 18 14 5 - X -
24 Bowling Green WCHA 57 18 15 6 - X -
25 Clarkson ECAC 56 21 17 4 - X -
26 Alaska WCHA 55 18 15 4 - X -
27 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 55 18 16 4 - X -
28 Maine East 55 16 15 4 - X -
29 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 54 17 18 2 - X -
30 Rensselaer ECAC 53 15 16 6 - X -
31 Miami NCHC 52 15 20 3 - X -
32 Lake Superior WCHA 51 16 19 1 - X -
33 St. Lawrence ECAC 51 15 19 4 - X -
34 Michigan Tech WCHA 48 14 19 7 - X -
35 Brown ECAC 47 11 17 3 - X -
36 Northern Michigan WCHA 47 15 21 2 - X -
37 Mercyhurst Atlantic 45 21 13 7 - X -
38 Harvard ECAC 44 10 17 4 - X -
39 Michigan State Big 10 44 11 18 7 - X -
40 Dartmouth ECAC 42 10 20 4 - X -
41 Air Force Atlantic 42 21 14 4 - X -
42 Bemidji State WCHA 42 10 21 7 - X -
43 Boston University East 41 10 21 4 - X -
44 Massachusetts East 38 8 22 4 - X -
45 Bentley Atlantic 38 19 14 4 - X -
46 Colorado College NCHC 37 7 24 6 - X -
47 Connecticut Atlantic 37 18 14 4 - X -
48 Merrimack East 36 8 22 3 - X -
49 Penn State Big 10 33 8 26 2 - X -
50 Robert Morris Atlantic 32 19 17 5 - 100% -
51 Canisius Atlantic 30 17 21 3 - X -
52 Niagara Atlantic 28 15 20 5 - X -
53 Princeton ECAC 26 6 26 0 - X -
54 Holy Cross Atlantic 24 14 22 3 - X -
55 RIT Atlantic 22 12 20 5 - X -
56 Sacred Heart Atlantic 16 12 24 0 - X -
57 UAH WCHA 15 2 35 1 - X -
58 American Int'l Atlantic 13 10 25 1 - X -
59 Army Atlantic 0 6 28 0 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot