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NCAA Hockey - Week 8 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 86 9 4 0 100% 99% X
2 Minnesota State WCHA 84 8 3 0 100% 97% X
3 Michigan Tech WCHA 82 10 1 0 100% 95% X
4 Bowling Green WCHA 78 9 3 1 > 99% 89% X
5 Miami NCHC 77 9 4 0 100% 85% X
6 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 77 6 2 1 100% 83% X
7 Minnesota Big 10 74 7 3 0 > 99% 80% X
8 Boston University East 71 7 1 1 100% 67% X
9 Denver NCHC 68 7 3 0 100% 56% X
10 Harvard ECAC 67 5 1 2 > 99% 56% X
11 North Dakota NCHC 67 8 3 1 100% 51% X
12 Mass.-Lowell East 67 8 2 3 > 99% 55% X
13 Penn State Big 10 67 7 2 2 > 99% 59% X
14 Colgate ECAC 66 9 3 1 > 99% 51% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 34 Line Movers
15 St. Lawrence ECAC 65 8 4 1 > 99% 49% X
16 Merrimack East 64 8 3 1 > 99% 46% X
17 Quinnipiac ECAC 64 7 3 1 > 99% 46% X
18 Vermont East 63 7 3 1 > 99% 43% X
19 St. Cloud State NCHC 63 5 5 1 > 99% 39% X
20 Northern Michigan WCHA 61 6 1 1 100% 36% X
21 Yale ECAC 58 3 2 2 > 99% 32% X
22 Providence East 56 4 5 1 > 99% 24% X
23 Boston College East 55 6 5 0 > 99% 21% X
24 Ferris State WCHA 55 6 6 0 > 99% 17% X
25 Clarkson ECAC 53 4 5 4 > 99% 15% X
26 Alaska WCHA 52 6 5 0 > 99% 12% X
27 Bemidji State WCHA 51 3 8 0 > 99% 11% X
28 Notre Dame East 51 6 6 2 > 99% 11% X
29 Connecticut East 51 3 5 4 > 99% 12% X
30 Robert Morris Atlantic 49 7 1 3 99% 27% X
31 Mercyhurst Atlantic 49 5 4 1 80% 26% X
32 Rensselaer ECAC 47 5 7 1 > 99% 7% X
33 Union ECAC 47 6 5 1 > 99% 6% X
34 Dartmouth ECAC 45 2 3 1 > 99% 9% X
35 Ohio State Big 10 45 4 7 1 > 99% 10% X
36 Cornell ECAC 45 2 4 1 > 99% 7% X
37 Michigan Big 10 45 4 6 0 > 99% 10% X
38 Western Michigan NCHC 44 3 7 1 > 99% 2% X
39 Bentley Atlantic 42 5 6 1 43% 15% X
40 UAH WCHA 40 3 8 2 > 99% 1% X
41 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 40 4 6 2 > 99% 1% X
42 Colorado College NCHC 39 3 7 0 > 99% 1% X
43 Michigan State Big 10 37 4 7 0 99% 4% X
44 New Hampshire East 36 4 6 0 > 99% 1% X
45 Holy Cross Atlantic 34 3 5 4 29% 8% X
46 RIT Atlantic 33 4 6 2 38% 8% X
47 Princeton ECAC 33 1 5 1 > 99% < 1% X
48 Sacred Heart Atlantic 32 4 6 2 50% 6% X
49 Air Force Atlantic 31 3 7 2 16% 7% X
50 Maine East 30 3 8 1 98% < 1% X
51 Massachusetts East 30 3 6 0 > 99% < 1% X
52 Canisius Atlantic 29 4 5 3 14% 5% X
53 Brown ECAC 29 1 5 0 > 99% < 1% X
54 Lake Superior WCHA 27 2 11 0 > 99% < 1% X
55 Northeastern East 26 1 9 1 > 99% < 1% X
56 Army Atlantic 20 3 7 2 8% 1% X
57 Wisconsin Big 10 20 0 7 0 > 99% < 1% X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 17 2 7 2 9% 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 14 2 9 0 11% < 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot