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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Denver WCHA 28 7 4 100% 100% 100%
2 Miami CCHA 27 6 7 100% 100% 100%
3 Wisconsin WCHA 25 9 4 100% 100% 100%
4 St. Cloud State WCHA 23 12 5 100% 100% 100%
5 North Dakota WCHA 23 13 5 100% 100% 100%
6 Boston College East 25 10 3 100% 100% 100%
7 Bemidji State CHA 23 9 3 100% 100% 100%
8 Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 23 16 1 100% 100% 100%
9 Northern Michigan CCHA 20 11 8 100% 100% 100%
10 Colorado College WCHA 20 17 3 100% 100% 100%
11 New Hampshire East 18 13 7 95% 95% 95%
12 Ferris State CCHA 21 12 6 84% 48% 3%
13 Michigan CCHA 25 17 1 86% 40% 16%
 
14 Alaska CCHA 19 12 9 54% 54% 53%
15 Minnesota WCHA 19 19 2 X X X
16 Michigan State CCHA 21 13 6 X X X
17 Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 21 16 6 X X X
18 Vermont East 17 14 7 X 22% X
19 Yale ECAC 21 9 3 X X X
20 Cornell ECAC 20 9 4 X 43% X
21 Maine East 20 16 3 X 21% X
22 Mass.-Lowell East 20 16 4 X X X
23 Minnesota State WCHA 17 20 3 X X X
24 Boston University East 19 16 4 X 20% X
25 Ohio State CCHA 16 19 6 X X X
26 Northeastern East 17 16 2 X X X
27 Union ECAC 21 11 6 X 28% X
28 Massachusetts East 18 19 0 X X X
29 Lake Superior CCHA 16 18 5 X X X
30 Merrimack East 16 19 2 X X X
31 Notre Dame CCHA 13 17 8 X X X
32 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 13 23 2 X X X
33 St. Lawrence ECAC 20 14 7 X 20% X
34 Quinnipiac ECAC 21 18 2 X X X
35 RIT Atlantic 25 11 1 X 37% X
36 Rensselaer ECAC 18 17 5 X X X
37 Western Michigan CCHA 8 20 8 X X X
38 Robert Morris CHA 12 19 5 X X X
39 Colgate ECAC 16 16 6 X X X
40 Niagara CHA 13 20 4 X X X
41 UAH CHA 12 17 3 100% 100% 100%
42 Sacred Heart Atlantic 20 13 4 X 28% X
43 Providence East 10 21 4 X X X
44 Princeton ECAC 13 17 3 X X X
45 Brown ECAC 13 19 4 X 9% X
46 Michigan Tech WCHA 6 30 1 X X X
47 Air Force Atlantic 17 14 6 X 19% X
48 Bowling Green CCHA 6 26 6 X X X
49 Harvard ECAC 9 21 4 X X X
50 Clarkson ECAC 10 24 4 X X X
51 Canisius Atlantic 17 15 5 X 17% X
52 Dartmouth ECAC 10 20 3 X X X
53 Mercyhurst Atlantic 16 20 3 X X X
54 Army Atlantic 11 18 7 X X X
55 Holy Cross Atlantic 13 19 6 X X X
56 Bentley Atlantic 12 19 4 X X X
57 Connecticut Atlantic 8 27 3 X X X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 5 24 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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