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NCAA Hockey - Week 23 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 North Dakota NCHC 84 24 6 3 100% 100% 100%
2 Minnesota State WCHA 83 24 6 3 100% 100% 100%
3 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 78 19 12 3 100% > 99% > 99%
4 Michigan Tech WCHA 77 24 8 2 100% > 99% 94%
5 Miami NCHC 75 20 11 1 100% > 99% > 99%
6 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 75 17 10 5 100% > 99% 83%
7 Boston University East 74 21 7 5 100% > 99% > 99%
8 Denver NCHC 73 19 11 2 100% 99% 86%
9 Boston College East 69 20 11 3 > 99% 90% 11%
10 Providence East 68 21 11 2 > 99% 83% 3%
11 Bowling Green WCHA 68 19 10 5 > 99% 82% < 1%
12 Quinnipiac ECAC 67 21 9 4 99% 75% < 1%
13 St. Cloud State NCHC 66 15 16 1 > 99% 49% < 1%
14 Minnesota Big 10 66 18 11 3 98% 56% < 1%
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
15 Yale ECAC 65 17 7 5 96% 40% < 1%
16 Mass.-Lowell East 65 18 10 6 93% 40% < 1%
17 Michigan Big 10 64 19 11 0 90% 42% X
18 Vermont East 63 18 12 4 99% 15% X
19 Bemidji State WCHA 62 15 14 5 94% 15% X
20 Colgate ECAC 62 19 11 4 12% 17% X
21 Northeastern East 61 16 14 4 95% 10% X
22 Harvard ECAC 60 15 11 3 56% 10% X
23 Alaska WCHA 59 17 13 2 X X X
24 St. Lawrence ECAC 58 18 13 3 < 1% 14% X
25 Dartmouth ECAC 57 15 10 4 1% 8% X
26 Western Michigan NCHC 57 12 15 5 41% 2% X
27 Penn State Big 10 54 16 12 4 < 1% 13% X
28 Northern Michigan WCHA 53 14 14 6 < 1% 3% X
29 New Hampshire East 53 15 17 2 < 1% 2% X
30 Cornell ECAC 51 11 12 6 < 1% 3% X
31 Michigan State Big 10 51 14 14 2 X 13% X
32 Notre Dame East 50 15 16 5 X 3% X
33 Merrimack East 49 14 16 4 < 1% 1% X
34 Union ECAC 49 16 16 2 X 2% X
35 Ferris State WCHA 48 14 19 2 X 2% X
36 Robert Morris Atlantic 48 22 7 5 X 39% X
37 Ohio State Big 10 46 11 17 2 X 6% X
38 Connecticut East 42 10 17 7 X 1% X
39 Maine East 42 13 20 3 X < 1% X
40 Clarkson ECAC 40 11 18 5 X 1% X
41 Colorado College NCHC 38 6 23 2 X < 1% X
42 Massachusetts East 37 10 21 2 X < 1% X
43 Rensselaer ECAC 36 10 23 3 X 1% X
44 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 36 8 20 4 X < 1% X
45 Lake Superior WCHA 36 8 24 2 X < 1% X
46 UAH WCHA 35 8 22 4 X < 1% X
47 Brown ECAC 34 8 18 3 X < 1% X
48 Canisius Atlantic 34 16 11 7 X 16% X
49 Bentley Atlantic 33 16 13 5 X 15% X
50 RIT Atlantic 32 15 14 5 X 12% X
51 Mercyhurst Atlantic 31 16 14 4 X 9% X
52 Wisconsin Big 10 30 4 22 4 X 1% X
53 Holy Cross Atlantic 24 13 16 5 X 4% X
54 Air Force Atlantic 24 14 19 4 X 3% X
55 Sacred Heart Atlantic 22 11 17 6 X 2% X
56 Princeton ECAC 21 4 21 3 X < 1% X
57 Army Atlantic 8 8 20 4 X < 1% X
58 Niagara Atlantic 4 5 25 4 X < 1% X
59 American Int'l Atlantic 4 4 23 7 X < 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot