PlayoffStatus.com

Mon Feb 19 3:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 22 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 59 20 6 4 44 100% 100% 100%
2 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 57 22 8 2 46 100% 100% 100%
3 Cornell ECAC ECAC 57 22 3 2 46 100% 100% 100%
4 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 56 25 7 0 50 100% >99% >99%
5 Denver NCHC NCHC 56 17 7 6 40 100% >99% 99%
6 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 54 19 8 5 43 100% >99% >99%
7 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 52 19 8 5 43 100% 97% 21%
8 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 51 19 13 2 40 100% >99% 95%
9 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 51 20 9 4 44 100% 94% 46%
10 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 51 16 13 3 35 100% 78% <1%
11 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 49 16 13 3 35 >99% 79% X
12 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 48 19 8 5 43 >99% 78% <1%
13 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 47 14 10 8 36 100% 68% <1%
14 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 46 15 14 1 31 100% 54% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
15 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 45 14 14 2 30 100% 30% X
16 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 44 20 11 3 43 94% 34% X
17 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 43 14 13 5 33 >99% 26% X
18 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 42 19 9 6 44 88% 31% X
19 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 40 16 13 3 35 23% 18% X
20 Union ECAC ECAC 39 20 13 1 41 54% 17% X
21 Boston College EastEast 39 16 13 3 35 42% 22% X
22 Harvard ECAC ECAC 38 13 10 4 30 56% 14% X
23 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 37 13 13 4 30 98% 8% X
24 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 37 14 15 4 32 94% 9% X
25 Maine EastEast 35 16 12 4 36 20% 7% X
26 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 34 17 11 4 38 <1% 23% X
27 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 33 16 11 7 39 24% 6% X
28 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 32 15 16 2 32 X 5% X
29 Miami NCHC NCHC 31 10 17 3 23 71% 1% X
30 Yale ECAC ECAC 30 14 12 1 29 4% 3% X
31 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 29 16 16 0 32 <1% 4% X
32 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 28 17 13 4 38 X 17% X
33 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 28 12 13 2 26 <1% 2% X
34 Princeton ECAC ECAC 26 12 12 3 27 1% 2% X
35 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 25 16 14 5 37 <1% 3% X
36 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 24 13 15 4 30 X 1% X
37 Colgate ECAC ECAC 23 13 14 5 31 X 2% X
38 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 22 11 19 2 24 <1% 1% X
39 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 22 13 17 2 28 X 2% X
40 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 20 15 15 2 32 X 15% X
41 Army Atlantic Atlantic 19 12 13 6 30 X 8% X
42 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 18 14 16 2 30 X 9% X
43 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 16 12 15 6 30 X 4% X
44 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 16 9 18 4 22 X 1% X
45 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 15 12 14 7 31 X 8% X
46 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 14 13 17 2 28 X 7% X
47 Vermont EastEast 13 9 17 6 24 X 1% X
48 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 12 10 16 6 26 X 1% X
49 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 11 11 17 4 26 X 3% X
50 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 11 11 17 4 26 X 3% X
51 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 9 12 21 1 25 X <1% X
52 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 8 11 18 3 25 X 3% X
53 Alaska WCHA WCHA 7 11 18 3 25 X <1% X
54 UAH WCHA WCHA 6 10 20 2 22 X <1% X
55 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 8 19 5 21 X X X
56 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 4 10 20 4 24 X <1% X
57 Brown ECAC ECAC 3 6 17 4 16 X <1% X
58 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 2 5 23 4 14 X <1% X
59 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 1 7 23 2 16 X <1% X
60 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 0 2 26 4 8 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot