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Sun Mar 20 7:45 am

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Quinnipiac ECAC 88 29 3 7 65 - 100% -
2 St. Cloud State NCHC 86 31 8 1 63 - 100% -
3 North Dakota NCHC 84 30 6 3 63 - 100% -
4 Providence East 82 27 6 4 58 - 100% -
5 Boston College East 79 26 7 5 57 - 100% -
6 Denver NCHC 79 23 9 5 51 - 100% -
7 Michigan Big 10 74 24 7 5 53 - 100% -
8 Harvard ECAC 73 19 10 4 42 - 100% -
9 Yale ECAC 72 19 8 4 42 - 100% -
10 Mass.-Lowell East 71 24 9 5 53 - 100% -
11 Notre Dame East 70 19 10 7 45 - 100% -
12 Boston University East 70 21 12 5 47 - 100% -
13 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 69 18 15 5 41 - >99% -
14 Northeastern N. Eastern East 67 22 13 5 49 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
15 Cornell ECAC 63 16 11 7 39 - X -
16 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 62 18 17 1 37 - X -
17 Michigan Tech WCHA 62 23 9 5 51 - X -
18 St. Lawrence ECAC 61 19 14 4 42 - X -
19 Minnesota Big 10 60 20 17 0 40 - X -
20 Dartmouth ECAC 59 18 16 1 37 - X -
21 Miami NCHC 58 15 18 3 33 - X -
22 Minnesota State WCHA 58 21 13 7 49 - X -
23 Rensselaer ECAC 57 18 15 7 43 - X -
24 Clarkson ECAC 57 20 15 3 43 - X -
25 Penn State Big 10 56 21 13 4 46 - X -
26 Bowling Green WCHA 54 22 14 6 50 - X -
27 Robert Morris Atlantic 53 24 11 4 52 - X -
28 Ferris State WCHA 52 19 14 6 44 - 100% -
29 Union ECAC 52 13 14 9 35 - X -
30 Ohio State Big 10 49 14 18 4 32 - X -
31 Vermont East 48 15 22 3 33 - X -
32 Bemidji State WCHA 48 17 16 6 40 - X -
33 Air Force Atlantic 46 20 12 5 45 - X -
34 Merrimack East 46 13 19 7 33 - X -
35 Northern Michigan WCHA 45 15 16 7 37 - X -
36 Western Michigan NCHC 45 8 25 3 19 - X -
37 Holy Cross Atlantic 42 18 13 5 41 - X -
38 New Hampshire East 40 11 20 6 28 - X -
39 RIT Atlantic 40 18 14 6 42 - 100% -
40 Colgate ECAC 39 11 24 2 24 - X -
41 Wisconsin Big 10 39 8 19 8 24 - X -
42 Michigan State Big 10 38 10 23 4 24 - X -
43 Mercyhurst Atlantic 38 17 15 4 38 - X -
44 Connecticut East 37 11 21 4 26 - X -
45 Lake Superior WCHA 36 14 22 5 33 - X -
46 Brown ECAC 35 5 19 7 17 - X -
47 Massachusetts Mass. East 35 8 24 4 20 - X -
48 Colorado College NCHC 35 6 29 1 13 - X -
49 Maine East 34 8 24 6 22 - X -
50 Army Atlantic 32 14 15 9 37 - X -
51 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 30 11 20 3 25 - X -
52 Alaska WCHA 29 10 22 4 24 - X -
53 Bentley Atlantic 29 14 20 6 34 - X -
54 UAH WCHA 26 7 21 6 20 - X -
55 Princeton ECAC 26 5 23 3 13 - X -
56 Sacred Heart Atlantic 26 13 20 4 30 - X -
57 Canisius Atlantic 23 12 22 5 29 - X -
58 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 18 3 22 0 6 - X -
59 Niagara Atlantic 12 6 25 6 18 - X -
60 American Int'l Atlantic 7 7 29 3 17 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot