PlayoffStatus.com

Home >NCAA Hockey >NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

NCAA Hockey - Week 9 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


NCAA Hockey Rankings
>NCAA Tournament Participation
NCAA Tournament Seedings
NCAA Tournament Performance
NCAA Tournament Schedule
NCAA Hockey Schedule

PlayoffStatus.com Home
NCAA Hockey Home




Data may change several
times on day of play
Bookmark site for easy return

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota State WCHA 87 9 3 0 100% 99% X
2 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 83 9 5 0 100% 96% X
3 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 82 7 2 1 100% 95% X
4 Michigan Tech WCHA 80 10 2 0 100% 93% X
5 Bowling Green WCHA 79 10 3 1 > 99% 92% X
6 Miami NCHC 77 10 4 0 100% 87% X
7 Harvard ECAC 74 6 1 2 > 99% 75% X
8 Minnesota Big 10 73 7 3 0 100% 78% X
9 Boston University East 70 8 2 1 > 99% 65% X
10 North Dakota NCHC 69 9 3 1 > 99% 60% X
11 Quinnipiac ECAC 69 8 3 1 > 99% 59% X
12 Denver NCHC 68 8 3 0 100% 53% X
13 Mass.-Lowell East 67 8 2 3 > 99% 56% X
14 Vermont East 66 9 3 1 100% 50% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 34 Line Movers
15 Yale ECAC 65 4 2 2 > 99% 49% X
16 St. Lawrence ECAC 63 8 5 1 > 99% 39% X
17 Colgate ECAC 62 9 4 1 > 99% 38% X
18 Penn State Big 10 62 7 3 2 > 99% 45% X
19 Providence East 59 6 5 1 > 99% 30% X
20 Northern Michigan WCHA 59 7 2 1 100% 30% X
21 Merrimack East 59 8 4 1 > 99% 29% X
22 St. Cloud State NCHC 58 5 6 1 > 99% 24% X
23 Boston College East 56 7 5 0 > 99% 21% X
24 Ferris State WCHA 56 7 6 0 > 99% 18% X
25 Clarkson ECAC 55 5 5 4 > 99% 18% X
26 Notre Dame East 51 6 6 2 > 99% 12% X
27 Robert Morris Atlantic 51 8 1 3 99% 31% X
28 Cornell ECAC 50 3 4 1 > 99% 12% X
29 Rensselaer ECAC 50 6 7 1 > 99% 8% X
30 Bemidji State WCHA 49 3 9 0 > 99% 8% X
31 Connecticut East 48 3 6 4 > 99% 7% X
32 Dartmouth ECAC 48 2 3 1 > 99% 11% X
33 Michigan Big 10 48 5 6 0 > 99% 13% X
34 Alaska WCHA 47 6 6 0 > 99% 3% X
35 Union ECAC 47 6 5 1 > 99% 5% X
36 Ohio State Big 10 46 4 7 1 > 99% 11% X
37 Mercyhurst Atlantic 46 5 4 2 62% 21% X
38 Western Michigan NCHC 42 3 8 1 > 99% 1% X
39 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 41 5 7 2 > 99% 1% X
40 Bentley Atlantic 39 5 7 1 19% 12% X
41 UAH WCHA 39 3 9 2 > 99% < 1% X
42 Michigan State Big 10 36 4 7 0 98% 4% X
43 Colorado College NCHC 36 3 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
44 Holy Cross Atlantic 35 4 5 4 21% 10% X
45 Sacred Heart Atlantic 34 5 6 2 40% 8% X
46 Air Force Atlantic 33 4 7 2 10% 8% X
47 New Hampshire East 32 4 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
48 Princeton ECAC 31 1 6 1 > 99% < 1% X
49 RIT Atlantic 31 4 7 2 19% 6% X
50 Lake Superior WCHA 31 3 11 0 > 99% < 1% X
51 Northeastern East 31 2 9 1 > 99% < 1% X
52 Canisius Atlantic 29 4 5 4 6% 5% X
53 Maine East 29 3 9 1 91% < 1% X
54 Massachusetts East 28 3 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
55 Brown ECAC 27 1 6 0 > 99% < 1% X
56 Wisconsin Big 10 19 0 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
57 Niagara Atlantic 17 3 9 0 9% 1% X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 16 2 8 2 2% 1% X
59 Army Atlantic 16 3 9 2 < 1% 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot