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Sat Feb 13 6:00 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 19 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 St. Cloud State NCHC 86 23 6 1 47 100% >99% 98%
2 Quinnipiac ECAC 84 21 2 6 48 100% >99% 96%
3 North Dakota NCHC 82 22 4 3 47 100% >99% 58%
4 Boston College East 81 21 4 4 46 100% >99% 64%
5 Providence East 78 20 5 4 44 100% >99% 17%
6 Notre Dame East 75 17 5 7 41 100% 99% 9%
7 Michigan Big 10 75 18 4 4 40 100% 98% <1%
8 Yale ECAC 73 15 5 4 34 100% 94% <1%
9 Denver NCHC 72 14 8 5 33 100% 93% <1%
10 Boston University East 72 17 8 4 38 100% 93% <1%
11 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 71 17 9 1 35 100% 88% <1%
12 Harvard ECAC 69 13 8 3 29 100% 81% X
13 Mass.-Lowell East 66 17 7 5 39 >99% 55% X
14 Miami NCHC 62 12 13 3 27 >99% 26% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 24 Line Movers
15 Rensselaer ECAC 62 15 10 6 36 99% 22% X
16 Cornell ECAC 61 12 7 5 29 >99% 21% X
17 Penn State Big 10 61 18 8 3 39 90% 26% X
18 St. Lawrence ECAC 61 15 11 3 33 99% 17% X
19 Michigan Tech WCHA 60 16 7 5 37 62% 30% X
20 Clarkson ECAC 60 16 10 3 35 99% 13% X
21 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 60 11 12 5 27 >99% 13% X
22 Minnesota Big 10 59 15 13 0 30 67% 26% X
23 Minnesota State WCHA 59 15 10 6 36 22% 25% X
24 Dartmouth ECAC 58 12 11 1 25 98% 12% X
25 Bowling Green WCHA 55 16 10 6 38 1% 19% X
26 Northeastern N. Eastern East 55 11 13 5 27 54% 2% X
27 Union ECAC 53 11 10 8 30 83% 1% X
28 Ferris State WCHA 53 14 9 6 34 8% 14% X
29 Robert Morris Atlantic 53 17 8 4 38 <1% 33% X
30 Vermont East 49 12 16 2 26 22% 1% X
31 Bemidji State WCHA 49 13 11 5 31 1% 7% X
32 Western Michigan NCHC 49 7 17 3 17 82% 1% X
33 Northern Michigan WCHA 48 12 11 6 30 <1% 8% X
34 Holy Cross Atlantic 44 14 10 5 33 X 20% X
35 Air Force Atlantic 44 14 10 5 33 X 18% X
36 New Hampshire East 44 10 15 4 24 <1% <1% X
37 Ohio State Big 10 42 8 15 2 18 <1% 4% X
38 Merrimack East 42 8 15 6 22 <1% <1% X
39 Wisconsin Big 10 41 6 13 6 18 X 4% X
40 Connecticut East 39 9 16 4 22 <1% <1% X
41 Colorado College NCHC 37 6 21 1 13 <1% <1% X
42 Massachusetts Mass. East 37 8 18 4 20 <1% <1% X
43 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 36 10 15 3 23 X 2% X
44 Mercyhurst Atlantic 36 14 13 2 30 X 9% X
45 Maine East 36 7 18 6 20 <1% <1% X
46 RIT Atlantic 36 12 12 5 29 X 10% X
47 Michigan State Big 10 35 7 20 2 16 X 2% X
48 Colgate ECAC 35 8 20 2 18 X <1% X
49 Brown ECAC 33 4 16 5 13 <1% <1% X
50 Lake Superior WCHA 32 9 18 4 22 X 1% X
51 Army Atlantic 31 9 11 7 25 X 4% X
52 Princeton ECAC 30 5 17 2 12 X <1% X
53 Bentley Atlantic 30 11 15 4 26 X 3% X
54 Alaska WCHA 28 7 17 4 18 X <1% X
55 UAH WCHA 27 6 17 4 16 X <1% X
56 Canisius Atlantic 27 9 15 5 23 X 3% X
57 Sacred Heart Atlantic 26 10 16 4 24 X 1% X
58 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 22 5 22 2 12 X X X
59 Niagara Atlantic 12 5 20 4 14 X <1% X
60 American Int'l Atlantic 8 6 23 2 14 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot