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Sat Apr 7 11:45 pm

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 12 and 13. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 58 28 10 2 58 - 100% -
2 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 58 25 9 6 56 - 100% -
3 Denver NCHC NCHC 57 23 10 8 54 - 100% -
4 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 56 26 10 5 57 - 100% -
5 Cornell ECAC ECAC 55 25 6 2 52 - 100% -
6 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 54 29 10 1 59 - 100% -
7 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 54 25 16 3 53 - 100% -
8 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 51 22 15 3 47 - 100% -
9 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 51 24 12 4 52 - 100% -
10 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 49 19 17 2 40 - X -
11 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 49 23 10 5 51 - 100% -
12 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 49 18 15 5 41 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
13 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 47 23 11 6 52 - 100% -
14 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 46 17 13 10 44 - X -
15 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 45 22 14 4 48 - 100% -
16 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 43 17 17 2 36 - X -
17 Boston College EastEast 42 20 14 3 43 - X -
18 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 41 23 12 6 52 - X -
19 Princeton ECAC ECAC 41 19 13 4 42 - 100% -
20 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 41 25 15 3 53 - X -
21 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 39 21 12 4 46 - X -
22 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 37 15 17 5 35 - X -
23 Union ECAC ECAC 36 21 15 2 44 - X -
24 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 36 15 19 2 32 - X -
25 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 36 22 17 5 49 - 100% -
26 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 35 23 15 5 51 - 100% -
27 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 34 14 19 4 32 - X -
28 Miami NCHC NCHC 33 12 20 5 29 - X -
29 Maine EastEast 31 18 16 4 40 - X -
30 Harvard ECAC ECAC 30 15 14 4 34 - X -
31 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 29 16 14 8 40 - X -
32 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 28 16 18 4 36 - X -
33 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 27 12 22 2 26 - X -
34 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 26 15 19 2 32 - X -
35 Colgate ECAC ECAC 25 17 17 6 40 - X -
36 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 25 17 20 2 36 - X -
37 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 22 19 17 2 40 - X -
38 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 21 16 17 2 34 - X -
39 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 20 17 19 0 34 - X -
40 Yale ECAC ECAC 20 15 15 1 31 - X -
41 Army Atlantic Atlantic 18 15 15 6 36 - X -
42 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 18 12 21 4 28 - X -
43 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 17 18 20 3 39 - X -
44 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 16 15 20 4 34 - X -
45 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 16 13 18 6 32 - X -
46 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 15 15 20 2 32 - X -
47 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 15 13 16 7 33 - X -
48 Vermont EastEast 12 10 20 7 27 - X -
49 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 11 13 22 4 30 - X -
50 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 10 14 23 1 29 - X -
51 UAH WCHA WCHA 9 12 23 2 26 - X -
52 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 8 10 20 6 26 - X -
53 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 7 8 21 5 21 - X -
54 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 6 11 22 3 25 - X -
55 Brown ECAC ECAC 5 8 19 4 20 - X -
56 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 4 10 22 4 24 - X -
57 Alaska WCHA WCHA 3 11 22 3 25 - X -
58 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 2 6 27 4 16 - X -
59 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 1 8 27 2 18 - X -
60 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 0 4 26 4 12 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot