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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Bowling Green. It was replaced by Yale. Only one pair in error is not bad, but we need to do better. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota State WCHA 83 29 7 3 - 100% -
2 North Dakota NCHC 82 27 8 3 - 100% -
3 Boston University East 78 25 7 5 - 100% -
4 Michigan Tech WCHA 77 29 9 2 - 100% -
5 Miami NCHC 77 25 13 1 - 100% -
6 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 74 20 15 3 - 100% -
7 Denver NCHC 74 22 13 2 - 100% -
8 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 71 18 12 6 - 100% -
9 St. Cloud State NCHC 69 19 18 1 - 100% -
10 Minnesota Big 10 68 23 12 3 - 100% -
11 Bowling Green WCHA 68 23 11 5 - 100% -
12 Boston College East 67 21 13 3 - 100% -
13 Quinnipiac ECAC 66 23 11 4 - 100% -
14 Harvard ECAC 66 21 12 3 - 100% -
15 Providence East 66 22 13 2 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
16 Mass.-Lowell East 65 21 12 6 - X -
17 Colgate ECAC 64 22 12 4 - X -
18 Yale ECAC 64 18 9 5 - X -
19 Vermont East 63 22 15 4 - X -
20 Michigan Big 10 61 22 15 0 - X -
21 Alaska WCHA 60 19 13 2 - X -
22 Bemidji State WCHA 59 16 17 5 - X -
23 St. Lawrence ECAC 59 20 14 3 - X -
24 Northeastern East 58 16 16 4 - X -
25 Western Michigan NCHC 58 14 18 5 - X -
26 Dartmouth ECAC 56 17 12 4 - X -
27 New Hampshire East 56 19 19 2 - X -
28 Penn State Big 10 53 18 15 4 - X -
29 Ferris State WCHA 52 18 20 2 - X -
30 Michigan State Big 10 52 17 16 2 - X -
31 Union ECAC 52 19 18 2 - X -
32 Merrimack East 51 16 18 4 - X -
33 Notre Dame East 51 18 19 5 - X -
34 Northern Michigan WCHA 49 14 18 6 - X -
35 Cornell ECAC 48 11 14 6 - X -
36 Ohio State Big 10 48 14 19 3 - X -
37 Robert Morris Atlantic 47 24 8 5 - X -
38 Maine East 43 14 22 3 - X -
39 Connecticut East 41 10 19 7 - X -
40 Clarkson ECAC 39 12 20 5 - X -
41 Colorado College NCHC 38 6 26 3 - X -
42 Massachusetts East 37 11 23 2 - X -
43 Rensselaer ECAC 37 12 26 3 - X -
44 RIT Atlantic 36 19 14 5 - 100% -
45 Canisius Atlantic 34 18 12 7 - X -
46 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 34 8 22 4 - X -
47 Mercyhurst Atlantic 33 19 16 4 - X -
48 UAH WCHA 33 8 26 4 - X -
49 Lake Superior WCHA 33 8 28 2 - X -
50 Brown ECAC 33 8 20 3 - X -
51 Bentley Atlantic 32 17 15 5 - X -
52 Wisconsin Big 10 27 4 26 5 - X -
53 Air Force Atlantic 23 16 21 4 - X -
54 Sacred Heart Atlantic 22 13 19 6 - X -
55 Holy Cross Atlantic 22 14 18 5 - X -
56 Princeton ECAC 21 4 23 3 - X -
57 Army Atlantic 7 8 22 4 - X -
58 Niagara Atlantic 7 7 28 4 - X -
59 American Int'l Atlantic 2 4 25 7 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot