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Mon Mar 25 7:45 pm

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 58 30 5 3 63 - 100% -
2 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 58 25 11 2 52 - 100% -
3 Minnesota State WCHAWCHA 57 32 7 2 66 - 100% -
4 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 56 28 9 0 56 - 100% -
5 Clarkson ECACECAC 55 26 10 2 54 - 100% -
6 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 54 27 10 1 55 - 100% -
7 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 53 25 9 2 52 - 100% -
8 Denver NCHCNCHC 52 21 11 5 47 - 100% -
9 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 51 20 10 5 45 - 100% -
10 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 21 12 1 43 - 100% -
11 Cornell ECACECAC 49 20 10 4 44 - 100% -
12 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 47 22 13 3 47 - 100% -
13 Harvard ECACECAC 47 19 10 3 41 - 100% -
14 Providence EastEast 46 22 11 6 50 - 100% -
15 Bowling Green WCHAWCHA 45 25 10 5 55 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
16 Penn State Big 10Big 10 44 22 15 2 46 - X -
17 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 43 21 15 1 43 - X -
18 Union ECACECAC 43 20 13 6 46 - X -
19 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 41 18 16 4 40 - X -
20 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 40 18 17 2 38 - X -
21 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 39 19 13 5 43 - X -
22 Lake Superior WCHAWCHA 38 23 13 2 48 - X -
23 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 37 17 19 4 38 - X -
24 Northern Michigan WCHAWCHA 36 21 16 2 44 - X -
25 Boston University EastEast 34 16 18 4 36 - X -
26 Brown ECACECAC 33 15 14 5 35 - X -
27 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 33 14 18 5 33 - X -
28 Michigan Big 10Big 10 31 13 16 7 33 - X -
29 Maine EastEast 31 15 17 4 34 - X -
30 Yale ECACECAC 30 15 15 3 33 - X -
31 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 28 22 16 1 45 - 100% -
32 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 28 12 19 5 29 - X -
33 New Hampshire EastEast 27 12 15 9 33 - X -
34 Boston College EastEast 26 14 22 3 31 - X -
35 Bemidji State WCHAWCHA 25 15 17 6 36 - X -
36 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 25 17 17 4 38 - X -
37 Dartmouth ECACECAC 22 13 17 4 30 - X -
38 Miami NCHCNCHC 22 11 23 4 26 - X -
39 Vermont EastEast 22 12 19 3 27 - X -
40 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 21 17 15 5 39 - X -
41 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 20 16 17 4 36 - X -
42 Michigan Tech WCHAWCHA 18 14 20 4 32 - X -
43 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 17 16 15 5 37 - X -
44 Princeton ECACECAC 16 10 18 3 23 - X -
45 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 15 17 19 5 39 - X -
46 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 15 12 20 2 26 - X -
47 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 13 9 24 3 21 - X -
48 Alaska WCHAWCHA 12 12 21 3 27 - X -
49 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 11 16 22 2 34 - X -
50 Colgate ECACECAC 10 10 23 3 23 - X -
51 Rensselaer ECACECAC 9 10 23 3 23 - X -
52 Army AtlanticAtlantic 8 12 20 7 31 - X -
53 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 7 13 20 5 31 - X -
54 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 7 12 20 5 29 - X -
55 Merrimack EastEast 5 7 24 3 17 - X -
56 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 4 10 21 5 25 - X -
57 Ferris State WCHAWCHA 3 10 23 3 23 - X -
58 UAH WCHAWCHA 2 8 28 2 18 - X -
59 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 1 6 29 2 14 - X -
60 Alaska-AnchorageAK-Anch WCHAWCHA 0 3 28 3 9 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot