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Sun Oct 14 3:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 2 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 59 1 0 0 2 100% 54% X
2 Union ECAC ECAC 58 2 0 1 5 100% 43% X
3 Denver NCHC NCHC 57 2 0 0 4 100% 46% X
4 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 56 3 1 0 6 100% 40% X
5 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 55 1 0 1 3 100% 41% X
6 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 54 2 1 0 4 100% 42% X
7 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 53 2 1 1 5 100% 35% X
8 Miami NCHC NCHC 52 3 1 0 6 100% 35% X
9 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 51 1 0 0 2 100% 45% X
10 Vermont EastEast 50 1 1 0 2 100% 23% X
11 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 49 2 2 0 4 100% 18% X
12 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 48 1 0 0 2 100% 48% X
13 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 48 2 0 0 4 100% 57% X
14 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 46 2 1 0 4 100% 41% X
15 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 45 1 0 1 3 100% 46% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 45 Line Movers
16 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 44 0 1 1 1 100% 22% X
17 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 43 0 2 1 1 100% 8% X
18 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 42 2 0 0 4 100% 52% X
19 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 41 2 1 0 4 100% 29% X
20 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 40 1 1 0 2 100% 28% X
21 Army Atlantic Atlantic 39 1 2 0 2 100% 16% X
22 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 38 1 3 0 2 100% 5% X
23 Colgate ECAC ECAC 34 2 0 0 4 100% 45% X
24 Maine EastEast 34 2 0 0 4 100% 44% X
25 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 34 2 0 0 4 100% 46% X
26 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 34 2 0 0 4 100% 45% X
27 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 34 2 0 0 4 100% 49% X
28 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 34 2 0 0 4 100% 45% X
29 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 34 2 0 0 4 100% 43% X
30 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 34 2 0 0 4 100% 46% X
31 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 29 1 2 0 2 100% 18% X
32 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 28 1 0 1 3 100% 35% X
33 UAH WCHA WCHA 27 0 4 0 0 100% 2% X
34 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 26 1 1 0 2 100% 20% X
35 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 25 0 2 0 0 100% 6% X
36 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 23 1 1 0 2 100% 30% X
37 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 23 1 1 0 2 100% 25% X
38 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 23 1 1 0 2 100% 29% X
39 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 20 1 1 0 2 100% 24% X
40 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 20 1 1 0 2 100% 22% X
41 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 20 1 1 0 2 100% 22% X
42 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 18 0 2 0 0 100% 2% X
43 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 17 0 1 1 1 100% 15% X
44 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 16 0 2 0 0 100% 2% X
45 Alaska WCHA WCHA 8 0 4 0 0 100% 1% X
46 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 8 0 1 0 0 100% 4% X
47 Boston College EastEast 8 0 2 0 0 100% 7% X
48 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 8 0 2 0 0 100% 6% X
49 Brown ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 25% X
50 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 8 0 2 0 0 100% 7% X
51 Cornell ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 26% X
52 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 25% X
53 Harvard ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 25% X
54 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 8 0 1 0 0 100% 6% X
55 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 8 0 2 0 0 100% 7% X
56 Princeton ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 25% X
57 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 8 0 2 0 0 100% 6% X
58 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 8 0 2 0 0 100% 7% X
59 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 8 0 2 0 0 100% 8% X
60 Yale ECAC ECAC 8 0 0 0 0 100% 26% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot