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Mon Feb 17 7:15 pm

NCAA Hockey - Week 21 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 13 and 14. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Boston College EastEast 63 22 6 1 45 100% 100% 100%
2 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 62 22 5 3 47 100% 100% 100%
3 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 61 21 7 4 46 100% >99% 99%
4 Maine EastEast 60 19 5 5 43 100% >99% 94%
5 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 59 22 5 1 45 100% >99% 3%
6 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 57 20 8 2 42 100% 99% 56%
7 Boston University EastEast 57 17 11 1 35 100% 99% 40%
8 Providence EastEast 56 17 8 5 39 100% 99% 29%
9 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 55 16 10 3 35 100% 97% 18%
10 Denver NCHCNCHC 54 21 8 1 43 100% 92% X
11 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 53 15 11 3 33 100% 68% <1%
12 Michigan Big 10Big 10 52 17 12 3 37 100% 77% 5%
13 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 51 16 12 2 34 100% 49% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 14 Line Movers
14 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 50 19 9 2 40 95% 58% X
15 Arizona St. NCHCNCHC 49 17 11 2 36 >99% 29% X
16 Penn State Big 10Big 10 48 16 11 3 35 100% 27% X
17 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 47 20 8 2 42 32% 53% X
18 New Hampshire EastEast 45 11 13 4 26 >99% 3% X
19 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 45 15 12 2 32 78% 9% X
20 Cornell ECACECAC 44 11 8 6 28 4% 10% X
21 Clarkson ECACECAC 42 18 9 3 39 4% 18% X
22 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 42 17 9 4 38 X <1% X
23 Merrimack EastEast 42 13 16 1 27 35% 1% X
24 Vermont EastEast 40 11 14 3 25 96% 1% X
25 Colgate ECACECAC 39 15 12 3 33 <1% 13% X
26 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 38 11 18 3 25 1% 1% X
27 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 37 19 11 2 40 X 42% X
28 Dartmouth ECACECAC 36 12 11 2 26 <1% 8% X
29 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 35 10 15 3 23 82% 1% X
30 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 34 17 10 5 39 X 25% X
31 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 33 16 13 1 33 2% 8% X
32 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 31 15 11 2 32 X X X
33 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 31 16 13 1 33 2% 5% X
34 Union ECACECAC 29 17 10 3 37 X 12% X
35 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 29 11 16 1 23 6% 1% X
36 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 27 17 13 2 36 X 16% X
37 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 26 15 10 4 34 X 16% X
38 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 26 15 12 3 33 X 16% X
39 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 25 10 12 6 26 X X X
40 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 24 11 15 2 24 <1% 2% X
41 Harvard ECACECAC 23 9 14 2 20 X 2% X
42 Brown ECACECAC 23 12 11 2 26 X 4% X
43 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 22 12 13 5 29 X 9% X
44 Princeton ECACECAC 22 10 13 2 22 X 2% X
45 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 20 9 20 1 19 X <1% X
46 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 19 11 17 2 24 X 3% X
47 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 16 16 13 3 35 X 9% X
48 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 16 11 15 4 26 X 4% X
49 Rensselaer ECACECAC 15 11 17 2 24 X 1% X
50 Army AtlanticAtlantic 13 13 16 2 28 X 4% X
51 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 13 10 18 2 22 X 1% X
52 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 12 13 19 2 28 X 2% X
53 Ferris State CCHACCHA 11 11 17 2 24 X 2% X
54 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 9 7 21 2 16 X X X
55 Yale ECACECAC 9 6 17 2 14 X <1% X
56 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 9 9 19 2 20 X <1% X
57 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 7 10 20 2 22 X 1% X
58 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 7 10 18 4 24 X <1% X
59 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 9 21 0 18 X X X
60 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 4 5 22 5 15 X X X
61 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 3 8 22 2 18 X <1% X
62 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 2 5 24 1 11 X <1% X
63 Miami NCHCNCHC 2 3 23 2 8 X <1% X
64 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 0 4 24 4 12 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot