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Wed Dec 7 6:30 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 10 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf PWR RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 59 10 2 2 22 100% 99% X
2 Denver NCHC 58 11 2 3 25 100% 97% X
3 Penn State Big 10 57 13 1 1 27 100% 94% X
4 Harvard ECAC 56 8 2 1 17 100% 88% X
5 Vermont East 55 9 3 2 20 100% 79% X
6 Ohio State Big 10 54 9 2 4 22 100% 82% X
7 Boston College East 53 13 5 1 27 100% 81% X
8 Boston University East 52 8 4 2 18 100% 61% X
9 North Dakota NCHC 51 8 5 3 19 100% 60% X
10 Mass.-Lowell East 50 8 5 3 19 100% 56% X
11 Western Michigan NCHC 49 7 4 3 17 100% 53% X
12 Minnesota Big 10 48 7 5 2 16 100% 53% X
13 Quinnipiac ECAC 47 10 5 2 22 100% 56% X
14 Cornell ECAC 46 7 3 1 15 100% 49% X
15 Union ECAC 45 10 3 2 22 100% 55% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 23 Line Movers
16 St. Cloud State NCHC 44 7 6 1 15 100% 31% X
17 Bemidji State WCHA 43 12 5 1 25 100% 51% X
18 Notre Dame East 42 8 6 2 18 100% 29% X
19 St. Lawrence ECAC 41 9 5 4 22 100% 43% X
20 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 40 8 5 3 19 100% 28% X
21 Robert Morris Atlantic 39 8 4 2 18 100% 54% X
22 Clarkson ECAC 38 9 6 3 21 100% 26% X
23 Michigan Tech WCHA 37 10 7 3 23 >99% 29% X
24 Minnesota State WCHA 36 9 5 1 19 100% 41% X
25 Air Force Atlantic 35 7 6 3 17 100% 29% X
26 Dartmouth ECAC 34 3 5 2 8 100% 9% X
27 Connecticut East 33 5 6 6 16 100% 9% X
28 Wisconsin Big 10 32 7 6 1 15 100% 18% X
29 RIT Atlantic 31 8 7 1 17 100% 16% X
30 Michigan Big 10 30 6 7 1 13 100% 16% X
31 New Hampshire East 29 8 6 2 18 100% 8% X
32 Northeastern N. Eastern East 28 5 7 4 14 100% 5% X
33 Providence East 27 5 6 3 13 100% 5% X
34 Army Atlantic 26 7 6 1 15 >99% 16% X
35 Merrimack East 25 6 6 3 15 100% 7% X
36 Michigan State Big 10 24 4 6 1 9 100% 7% X
37 Holy Cross Atlantic 23 6 5 3 15 >99% 13% X
38 Bowling Green WCHA 22 8 8 2 18 95% 11% X
39 Lake Superior WCHA 21 8 8 0 16 99% 7% X
40 Yale ECAC 20 3 4 2 8 100% 5% X
41 Canisius Atlantic 19 6 8 3 15 99% 8% X
42 Massachusetts Mass. East 18 4 8 2 10 100% 1% X
43 Miami NCHC 17 3 8 4 10 100% 1% X
44 Sacred Heart Atlantic 16 5 9 2 12 88% 4% X
45 Maine East 15 5 9 3 13 99% 1% X
46 Colgate ECAC 14 4 9 4 12 94% <1% X
47 Princeton ECAC 13 3 7 1 7 100% 1% X
48 Colorado College NCHC 12 3 11 0 6 100% <1% X
49 Bentley Atlantic 11 3 7 4 10 >99% 2% X
50 Ferris State WCHA 10 6 10 1 13 34% 2% X
51 American Int'l Atlantic 9 3 6 6 12 93% 2% X
52 Alaska WCHA 8 4 10 1 9 38% 1% X
53 Mercyhurst Atlantic 7 5 8 0 10 >99% 2% X
54 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 6 4 13 0 8 24% <1% X
55 UAH WCHA 5 5 11 2 12 4% 1% X
56 Northern Michigan WCHA 4 4 12 2 10 6% <1% X
57 Brown ECAC 3 2 8 0 4 >99% <1% X
58 Rensselaer ECAC 2 3 14 1 7 15% <1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 1 2 11 3 7 9% <1% X
60 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 0 2 12 2 6 1% <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot