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NCAA Hockey - Week 4 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Vermont East 74 3 0 0 > 99% 64% X
2 Alaska WCHA 71 4 0 0 > 99% 59% X
3 Merrimack East 71 3 0 0 > 99% 58% X
4 Union ECAC 69 4 0 0 > 99% 56% X
5 Minnesota Big 10 68 2 0 0 > 99% 62% X
6 Denver NCHC 68 2 0 0 > 99% 54% X
7 North Dakota NCHC 67 3 1 0 > 99% 52% X
8 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 65 3 0 1 > 99% 47% X
9 Miami NCHC 64 3 1 0 > 99% 48% X
10 Bowling Green WCHA 64 3 1 0 > 99% 45% X
11 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 63 3 1 0 > 99% 47% X
12 Northern Michigan WCHA 63 2 0 0 > 99% 45% X
13 Mass.-Lowell East 63 2 0 1 > 99% 45% X
14 Boston University East 62 1 0 0 > 99% 44% X
15 Michigan Tech WCHA 61 2 0 0 > 99% 41% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
16 Bemidji State WCHA 60 1 1 0 > 99% 39% X
17 Colgate ECAC 60 3 1 0 > 99% 40% X
18 Minnesota State WCHA 58 2 2 0 > 99% 36% X
19 Ferris State WCHA 57 2 1 0 > 99% 34% X
20 Robert Morris Atlantic 57 4 0 0 > 99% 39% X
21 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 55 2 2 0 > 99% 31% X
22 St. Cloud State NCHC 54 1 1 0 > 99% 31% X
23 Penn State Big 10 54 1 1 2 > 99% 35% X
24 Clarkson ECAC 53 2 2 0 > 99% 29% X
25 Boston College East 52 1 1 0 > 99% 28% X
26 Brown ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
27 Dartmouth ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
28 Cornell ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
29 Harvard ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
30 Princeton ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
31 Yale ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
32 Connecticut East 49 1 2 1 > 99% 21% X
33 Providence East 46 1 1 0 > 99% 18% X
34 St. Lawrence ECAC 46 2 2 0 > 99% 17% X
35 Colorado College NCHC 46 2 2 0 > 99% 16% X
36 Mercyhurst Atlantic 46 1 1 0 > 99% 22% X
37 Rensselaer ECAC 46 1 3 0 > 99% 17% X
38 Quinnipiac ECAC 45 1 2 1 > 99% 16% X
39 Sacred Heart Atlantic 44 2 2 0 > 99% 19% X
40 New Hampshire East 43 1 2 0 > 99% 14% X
41 Michigan State Big 10 43 1 1 0 > 99% 19% X
42 Holy Cross Atlantic 43 1 2 1 > 99% 17% X
43 Canisius Atlantic 42 2 2 0 99% 16% X
44 Army Atlantic 42 2 2 0 > 99% 16% X
45 Massachusetts East 42 1 2 0 > 99% 11% X
46 Air Force Atlantic 39 1 3 0 > 99% 11% X
47 Western Michigan NCHC 39 1 3 0 > 99% 8% X
48 Michigan Big 10 38 1 2 0 > 99% 13% X
49 Bentley Atlantic 38 1 2 0 > 99% 11% X
50 RIT Atlantic 37 1 2 0 > 99% 11% X
51 Ohio State Big 10 37 1 3 0 > 99% 10% X
52 Notre Dame East 37 2 2 0 > 99% 5% X
53 American Int'l Atlantic 36 0 2 1 > 99% 9% X
54 Maine East 34 0 4 0 > 99% 3% X
55 Northeastern East 34 0 3 0 > 99% 4% X
56 Wisconsin Big 10 34 0 4 0 > 99% 7% X
57 UAH WCHA 29 0 4 0 > 99% < 1% X
58 Lake Superior WCHA 24 0 6 0 > 99% < 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 21 0 4 0 99% 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot