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Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.
Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments
So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Western Michigan. It was replaced by Niagara. Only one pair in error is not bad, although Niagara was not very close to cutline. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.
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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities