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NCAA Hockey - Week 17 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota State WCHA 82 19 5 1 100% > 99% < 1%
2 Boston University East 78 15 4 4 100% 98% X
3 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 77 15 6 3 100% 98% < 1%
4 North Dakota NCHC 77 18 5 2 100% 96% < 1%
5 Bowling Green WCHA 76 15 5 4 100% 95% X
6 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 74 14 9 1 100% 89% X
7 Harvard ECAC 74 12 4 2 100% 88% X
8 Michigan Tech WCHA 74 18 7 1 100% 94% < 1%
9 Miami NCHC 72 15 9 0 100% 81% < 1%
10 Providence East 71 16 8 1 > 99% 79% X
11 Denver NCHC 70 14 8 1 100% 72% < 1%
12 Mass.-Lowell East 68 15 7 3 > 99% 65% X
13 Boston College East 68 15 8 2 100% 59% X
14 Michigan Big 10 68 15 7 0 > 99% 65% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
15 Vermont East 66 15 8 2 > 99% 46% X
16 Merrimack East 65 13 7 3 > 99% 40% X
17 Quinnipiac ECAC 64 15 8 1 > 99% 37% X
18 Colgate ECAC 63 14 8 2 > 99% 30% X
19 Yale ECAC 62 11 6 2 > 99% 27% X
20 Minnesota Big 10 60 11 9 2 > 99% 28% X
21 Western Michigan NCHC 59 11 10 3 > 99% 13% X
22 St. Cloud State NCHC 58 10 13 1 > 99% 9% X
23 St. Lawrence ECAC 58 13 10 2 95% 13% X
24 Penn State Big 10 57 12 7 4 99% 25% X
25 Northeastern East 57 10 11 4 > 99% 6% X
26 Bemidji State WCHA 54 9 12 3 > 99% 5% X
27 Northern Michigan WCHA 53 9 9 6 > 99% 5% X
28 Alaska WCHA 52 12 13 1 X X X
29 Cornell ECAC 51 8 9 2 97% 4% X
30 Robert Morris Atlantic 51 17 5 4 < 1% 38% X
31 Union ECAC 50 12 10 2 82% 3% X
32 Clarkson ECAC 50 10 11 4 21% 5% X
33 Dartmouth ECAC 48 7 8 4 76% 3% X
34 Ferris State WCHA 48 11 13 1 86% 2% X
35 Ohio State Big 10 45 7 13 2 2% 7% X
36 Connecticut East 44 7 12 5 11% 1% X
37 Michigan State Big 10 44 9 11 2 1% 8% X
38 Notre Dame East 44 10 13 3 19% 1% X
39 New Hampshire East 42 8 14 2 37% < 1% X
40 Maine East 41 10 15 1 4% < 1% X
41 Mercyhurst Atlantic 41 12 8 4 X 20% X
42 Colorado College NCHC 40 5 16 1 72% < 1% X
43 Rensselaer ECAC 40 9 17 1 < 1% 1% X
44 UAH WCHA 39 7 16 3 1% < 1% X
45 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 39 7 11 4 45% < 1% X
46 Lake Superior WCHA 37 7 20 1 X < 1% X
47 Canisius Atlantic 34 12 8 6 X 12% X
48 Massachusetts East 33 7 16 1 1% < 1% X
49 Bentley Atlantic 33 11 11 3 X 9% X
50 Air Force Atlantic 31 11 13 3 X 8% X
51 RIT Atlantic 30 9 11 4 X 7% X
52 Wisconsin Big 10 29 2 15 3 < 1% 1% X
53 Brown ECAC 26 4 15 0 < 1% < 1% X
54 Holy Cross Atlantic 25 8 12 5 X 4% X
55 Princeton ECAC 22 2 14 1 4% < 1% X
56 Sacred Heart Atlantic 20 7 15 4 X 1% X
57 American Int'l Atlantic 8 3 18 5 X < 1% X
58 Army Atlantic 7 5 16 2 X < 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 2 3 19 2 X < 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot