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NCAA Hockey - Week 1 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

So how well did we do in predicting what teams made the tournament? This year we had 1 team that did not make tournament as we predicted, Cornell. It was replaced by Vermont. Only one pair in error is not bad. Both teams were very close to the cutline with MWPs that differed by only a single point. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year, probably by ranking our teams by the PWR method.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota Big 10 52 0 0 0 > 99% 32% X
2 Notre Dame East 52 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
3 Connecticut East 52 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
4 Mass.-Lowell East 52 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
5 Merrimack East 51 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
6 Union ECAC 51 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
7 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 51 0 0 0 > 99% 29% X
8 Western Michigan NCHC 51 0 0 0 > 99% 29% X
9 Northeastern East 51 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
10 Boston College East 51 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
11 Boston University East 51 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
12 Michigan Big 10 51 0 0 0 > 99% 31% X
13 Michigan State Big 10 51 0 0 0 > 99% 31% X
14 Ohio State Big 10 51 0 0 0 > 99% 31% X
15 Penn State Big 10 51 0 0 0 > 99% 31% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 23 Line Movers
16 Rensselaer ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
17 Miami NCHC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
18 Lake Superior WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
19 Ferris State WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
20 Harvard ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
21 Minnesota State WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
22 Colgate ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
23 Providence East 50 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
24 Yale ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
25 New Hampshire East 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
26 Michigan Tech WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
27 Bemidji State WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
28 Princeton ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
29 Vermont East 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
30 Massachusetts East 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
31 Maine East 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
32 Cornell ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
33 Wisconsin Big 10 50 0 0 0 > 99% 30% X
34 Quinnipiac ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
35 St. Cloud State NCHC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
36 St. Lawrence ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
37 Clarkson ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
38 Colorado College NCHC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
39 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
40 UAH WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
41 Northern Michigan WCHA 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
42 Bowling Green WCHA 49 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
43 Brown ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
44 Denver NCHC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 28% X
45 Alaska WCHA 49 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
46 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
47 North Dakota NCHC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
48 Sacred Heart Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
49 RIT Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
50 Dartmouth ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
51 Robert Morris Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
52 American Int'l Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
53 Niagara Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
54 Holy Cross Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
55 Air Force Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
56 Bentley Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 24% X
57 Mercyhurst Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
58 Canisius Atlantic 49 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
59 Army Atlantic 48 0 0 0 > 99% 25% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot