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Sun Feb 25 9:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 22 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Boston College EastEast 63 25 5 1 51 100% 100% 100%
2 Boston University EastEast 62 22 8 2 46 100% 100% 100%
3 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 60 22 8 2 46 100% >99% 98%
4 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 60 24 8 2 50 100% >99% 99%
5 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 59 21 8 3 45 100% >99% >99%
6 Denver NCHCNCHC 58 21 8 3 45 100% >99% 91%
7 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 57 23 7 2 48 100% 99% 21%
8 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 56 19 8 5 43 100% 98% 53%
9 Maine EastEast 55 19 9 2 40 100% 97% 11%
10 Providence EastEast 54 17 10 3 37 100% 71% <1%
11 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 53 15 10 5 35 100% 61% X
12 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 52 18 11 1 37 100% 62% X
13 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 51 17 10 3 37 100% 70% X
14 Michigan Big 10Big 10 49 17 12 3 37 >99% 52% <1%
Cutline - Click Here to View 24 Line Movers
15 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 48 18 10 2 38 100% 61% X
16 Cornell ECACECAC 48 16 5 6 38 66% 52% X
17 New Hampshire EastEast 47 17 12 1 35 >99% 23% X
18 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 47 16 10 4 36 98% 20% X
19 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 45 15 14 2 32 59% 3% X
20 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 45 21 7 6 48 <1% <1% X
21 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 43 15 17 2 32 X 3% X
22 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 42 22 10 2 46 X 41% X
23 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 41 12 17 2 26 X 1% X
24 Penn State Big 10Big 10 40 13 16 3 29 X 1% X
25 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 39 18 12 4 40 X 23% X
26 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 38 12 16 4 28 X 1% X
27 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 37 10 17 4 24 1% 1% X
28 Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 36 14 14 2 30 X X X
29 Vermont EastEast 35 12 15 3 27 X 1% X
30 Minnesota State CCHACCHA 34 16 12 4 36 X 28% X
31 Merrimack EastEast 33 12 18 1 25 X <1% X
32 Dartmouth ECACECAC 32 9 9 9 27 X 7% X
33 Colgate ECACECAC 30 14 14 4 32 X 7% X
34 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 30 16 14 4 36 X 9% X
35 Bemidji State CCHACCHA 29 15 15 2 32 X 23% X
36 Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 28 14 13 6 34 X 19% X
37 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 27 8 19 4 20 X <1% X
38 Clarkson ECACECAC 26 16 15 1 33 X 4% X
39 Augustana NCAA IndependentsInd. 26 12 17 3 27 X X X
40 Union ECACECAC 24 14 15 3 31 X 2% X
41 Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 23 12 16 2 26 X X X
42 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 22 16 16 2 34 X 5% X
43 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 21 18 17 1 37 X 10% X
44 St. Thomas CCHACCHA 20 13 17 2 28 X 10% X
45 Miami NCHCNCHC 19 7 20 3 17 X <1% X
46 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 18 15 16 3 33 X 4% X
47 Yale ECACECAC 17 10 15 2 22 X 1% X
48 Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 16 16 18 1 33 X X X
49 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 14 14 17 3 31 X 7% X
50 Lake Superior CCHACCHA 14 14 18 1 29 X 6% X
51 Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 13 10 14 6 26 X 6% X
52 Princeton ECACECAC 13 10 14 3 23 X 1% X
53 Harvard ECACECAC 11 5 17 5 15 X <1% X
54 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 10 10 17 5 25 X 1% X
55 Bowling Green CCHACCHA 9 13 18 1 27 X 5% X
56 Rensselaer ECACECAC 8 9 19 4 22 X <1% X
57 Army AtlanticAtlantic 8 10 22 2 22 X <1% X
58 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 6 11 19 4 26 X 1% X
59 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 5 9 21 4 22 X <1% X
60 Brown ECACECAC 4 8 17 2 18 X <1% X
61 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 3 10 23 3 23 X <1% X
62 Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 6 18 4 16 - X -
63 Ferris State CCHACCHA 1 10 21 2 22 X 2% X
64 Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 0 2 29 0 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot