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Sun Mar 19 12:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf PWR RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Minnesota-Duluth Minn.-Duluth NCHC 59 25 6 7 57 - 100% -
2 Denver NCHC 58 28 7 4 60 - 100% -
3 Harvard ECAC 57 26 5 2 54 - 100% -
4 Western Michigan NCHC 56 22 11 5 49 - 100% -
5 Mass.-Lowell East 55 26 10 3 55 - 100% -
6 Minnesota Minn. Big 10 54 23 11 3 49 - 100% -
7 Boston University Boston U. East 53 23 11 3 49 - 100% -
8 Union ECAC 52 25 9 3 53 - 100% -
9 Penn State Big 10 51 24 11 2 50 - 100% -
10 North Dakota NCHC 50 21 15 3 45 - 100% -
11 Cornell ECAC 49 21 8 5 47 - 100% -
12 Air Force Atlantic 48 26 9 5 57 - 100% -
13 Providence Provid. East 47 22 11 5 49 - 100% -
14 Notre Dame East 46 21 11 5 47 - 100% -
15 Ohio State Big 10 45 21 11 6 48 - 100% -
Cutline - Click Here to View 0 Line Movers
16 Boston College East 44 21 15 4 46 - <1% -
17 Vermont East 43 20 13 5 45 - <1% -
18 Wisconsin Wiscon. Big 10 42 20 15 1 41 - <1% -
19 Nebraska-Omaha Nebr.-Omaha NCHC 41 17 17 5 39 - <1% -
20 Quinnipiac Quinn. ECAC 40 23 15 2 48 - <1% -
21 Northeastern N. Eastern East 39 18 15 5 41 - <1% -
22 St. Cloud State NCHC 38 16 19 1 33 - <1% -
23 St. Lawrence St. Lawr. ECAC 37 17 13 7 41 - <1% -
24 Michigan Tech Mich. Tech WCHA 36 23 14 7 53 - 100% -
25 Canisius Atlantic 35 21 11 7 49 - <1% -
26 Minnesota State Minn. State WCHA 33 22 13 4 48 - <1% -
27 Robert Morris Atlantic 33 22 12 4 48 - <1% -
28 Bemidji State WCHA 32 22 16 3 47 - <1% -
29 Clarkson ECAC 32 18 16 5 41 - <1% -
30 Merrimack Merri. East 30 15 16 6 36 - <1% -
31 Yale ECAC 29 13 15 5 31 - <1% -
32 Princeton ECAC 28 15 16 3 33 - <1% -
33 Army Atlantic 27 18 14 5 41 - <1% -
34 Miami NCHC 26 9 20 7 25 - <1% -
35 New Hampshire New Hamp. East 25 15 20 5 35 - <1% -
36 Bowling Green WCHA 24 21 18 2 44 - <1% -
37 Michigan Big 10 23 13 19 3 29 - <1% -
38 Connecticut Connect. East 22 12 16 8 32 - <1% -
39 Colorado College NCHC 21 8 24 4 20 - <1% -
40 Holy Cross Atlantic 20 14 15 7 35 - <1% -
41 Bentley Atlantic 19 13 19 7 33 - <1% -
42 Sacred Heart Atlantic 18 13 19 5 31 - <1% -
43 Dartmouth Dartm. ECAC 17 10 18 3 23 - <1% -
44 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 16 8 19 3 19 - <1% -
45 Maine East 14 11 21 4 26 - <1% -
46 Mercyhurst Mercy. Atlantic 14 15 20 4 34 - <1% -
47 Northern Michigan N. Mich. WCHA 13 13 22 4 30 - <1% -
48 Ferris State WCHA 12 13 19 5 31 - <1% -
49 Michigan State Big 10 11 7 24 4 18 - <1% -
50 RIT Atlantic 11 14 22 1 29 - <1% -
51 Colgate ECAC 9 9 22 6 24 - <1% -
52 Alaska WCHA 8 12 20 4 28 - <1% -
53 Lake Superior WCHA 7 11 18 7 29 - <1% -
54 American Int'l Amer. Int'l Atlantic 6 8 20 8 24 - <1% -
55 Rensselaer Renss. ECAC 5 8 28 1 17 - <1% -
56 UAH WCHA 4 9 22 3 21 - <1% -
57 Alaska-Anchorage Alaska-Anchor. WCHA 3 7 21 6 20 - <1% -
58 Massachusetts Mass. East 2 5 29 2 12 - <1% -
59 Brown ECAC 1 4 25 2 10 - <1% -
60 Niagara Atlantic 0 5 31 3 13 - <1% -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot