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Sun Feb 17 3:15 am

NCAA Hockey - Week 21 of 23

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf PWR Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 58 21 4 3 45 100% >99% >99%
2 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 58 23 6 0 46 100% >99% 96%
3 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 57 18 8 2 38 100% >99% 28%
4 Denver NCHC NCHC 56 16 7 4 36 100% 99% <1%
5 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 55 24 6 2 50 100% >99% 23%
6 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 54 22 6 2 46 100% >99% 25%
7 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 53 19 7 4 42 100% >99% 60%
8 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 21 10 1 43 100% >99% 99%
9 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 51 17 10 1 35 100% 70% X
10 Cornell ECAC ECAC 51 15 7 3 33 100% 78% X
11 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 49 19 9 1 39 100% 73% X
12 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 47 18 9 5 41 100% 68% X
13 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 47 20 10 0 40 100% 60% X
14 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 46 17 10 2 36 >99% 49% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
15 Harvard ECAC ECAC 45 14 8 3 31 >99% 45% X
16 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 44 19 8 4 42 >99% 48% X
17 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 43 16 11 3 35 98% 34% X
18 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 42 17 11 2 36 98% 31% X
19 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 41 20 8 2 42 98% 42% X
20 Union ECAC ECAC 40 15 9 6 36 >99% 25% X
21 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 38 14 13 2 30 >99% 17% X
22 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 38 13 14 4 30 18% 8% X
23 Yale ECAC ECAC 37 13 9 3 29 88% 13% X
24 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 35 12 12 6 30 9% 7% X
25 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 35 11 10 8 30 31% 3% X
26 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 34 11 14 4 26 78% 2% X
27 Maine EastEast 34 12 14 4 28 1% 3% X
28 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 32 15 14 2 32 X 5% X
29 Brown ECAC ECAC 31 10 10 5 25 3% 3% X
30 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 30 11 15 3 25 <1% 3% X
31 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 28 11 16 5 27 <1% 3% X
32 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 28 15 12 5 35 4% 4% X
33 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 28 10 15 5 25 X 3% X
34 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 26 14 13 3 31 X 17% X
35 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 25 17 14 1 35 X 25% X
36 Vermont EastEast 25 12 16 2 26 X <1% X
37 Boston College EastEast 24 10 16 3 23 X 2% X
38 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 22 9 12 4 22 X 2% X
39 Miami NCHC NCHC 21 10 16 4 24 28% 1% X
40 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 20 9 17 2 20 2% 1% X
41 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 19 15 12 3 33 X 18% X
42 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 18 14 12 4 32 X 15% X
43 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 17 12 16 4 28 X 1% X
44 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 16 13 14 3 29 X 9% X
45 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 15 9 18 3 21 X <1% X
46 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 13 13 15 4 30 X 8% X
47 Colgate ECAC ECAC 13 8 19 3 19 X <1% X
48 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 12 10 18 2 22 X <1% X
49 Princeton ECAC ECAC 11 7 16 2 16 X <1% X
50 Alaska WCHA WCHA 10 9 18 3 21 X <1% X
51 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 9 11 17 3 25 X 3% X
52 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 8 7 21 2 16 X X X
53 Army Atlantic Atlantic 8 9 16 5 23 X 2% X
54 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 7 10 18 3 23 X 1% X
55 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 5 8 21 3 19 X <1% X
56 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 4 10 19 1 21 X 1% X
57 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 3 8 18 4 20 X 1% X
58 UAH WCHA WCHA 2 6 24 2 14 X <1% X
59 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 1 4 24 2 10 X <1% X
60 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 0 3 24 3 9 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot