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NCAA Hockey - Week 4 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Union ECAC 76 5 0 0 > 99% 69% X
2 Vermont East 74 3 0 0 > 99% 65% X
3 Alaska WCHA 74 5 0 0 > 99% 66% X
4 Merrimack East 73 4 0 0 > 99% 62% X
5 Minnesota Big 10 72 3 0 0 > 99% 68% X
6 Denver NCHC 72 3 0 0 > 99% 62% X
7 Michigan Tech WCHA 70 3 0 0 > 99% 57% X
8 Boston University East 69 2 0 0 100% 55% X
9 North Dakota NCHC 65 4 1 0 > 99% 50% X
10 Northern Michigan WCHA 65 3 0 0 > 99% 47% X
11 Colgate ECAC 62 4 1 0 > 99% 43% X
12 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 62 3 1 0 > 99% 45% X
13 Robert Morris Atlantic 61 5 0 0 > 99% 47% X
14 Bowling Green WCHA 59 3 1 1 > 99% 36% X
15 Boston College East 57 2 1 0 100% 35% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 44 Line Movers
16 Minnesota State WCHA 57 3 2 0 > 99% 34% X
17 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 57 3 1 1 > 99% 32% X
18 Penn State Big 10 57 2 1 2 > 99% 38% X
19 Ferris State WCHA 56 2 2 0 > 99% 32% X
20 St. Lawrence ECAC 55 3 2 0 > 99% 31% X
21 Clarkson ECAC 55 2 2 1 > 99% 31% X
22 Bemidji State WCHA 54 1 2 0 > 99% 30% X
23 Mass.-Lowell East 54 2 1 1 > 99% 30% X
24 Miami NCHC 53 3 2 0 > 99% 29% X
25 St. Cloud State NCHC 51 1 2 0 > 99% 26% X
26 Michigan Big 10 51 2 2 0 > 99% 28% X
27 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 50 2 3 0 > 99% 24% X
28 Brown ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
29 Dartmouth ECAC 50 0 0 0 100% 27% X
30 Harvard ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
31 Connecticut East 50 1 2 1 > 99% 23% X
32 Cornell ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
33 Princeton ECAC 50 0 0 0 100% 26% X
34 Yale ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
35 New Hampshire East 49 1 2 0 > 99% 22% X
36 Massachusetts East 49 2 2 0 > 99% 21% X
37 RIT Atlantic 46 2 2 0 > 99% 21% X
38 Canisius Atlantic 45 3 2 0 99% 19% X
39 Bentley Atlantic 44 2 2 0 > 99% 17% X
40 Michigan State Big 10 43 1 2 0 > 99% 18% X
41 Quinnipiac ECAC 43 1 2 1 > 99% 13% X
42 Maine East 43 1 4 0 > 99% 11% X
43 Rensselaer ECAC 41 1 4 0 > 99% 10% X
44 Colorado College NCHC 41 2 3 0 > 99% 9% X
45 Providence East 40 1 2 0 > 99% 9% X
46 Notre Dame East 40 3 2 0 > 99% 8% X
47 Sacred Heart Atlantic 40 2 3 0 > 99% 13% X
48 Mercyhurst Atlantic 38 1 2 0 > 99% 11% X
49 Army Atlantic 37 2 3 0 99% 10% X
50 Holy Cross Atlantic 37 1 3 1 99% 10% X
51 Western Michigan NCHC 37 1 4 0 > 99% 6% X
52 Wisconsin Big 10 33 0 4 0 > 99% 5% X
53 Ohio State Big 10 32 1 3 0 > 99% 4% X
54 Air Force Atlantic 31 1 4 0 > 99% 3% X
55 Northeastern East 30 0 4 0 > 99% 1% X
56 American Int'l Atlantic 28 0 3 1 > 99% 2% X
57 Lake Superior WCHA 26 0 7 0 > 99% < 1% X
58 UAH WCHA 24 0 5 0 > 99% < 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 20 0 5 0 97% 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot