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Fri Jan 20 12:30 pm

NCAA Hockey - Week 17 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 14 and 15. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf PWR RecordĀ  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Pts Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Denver NCHC 59 15 5 4 34 100% 99% X
2 Penn State Big 10 58 16 2 1 33 100% 98% X
3 Boston University East 57 14 5 2 30 100% 97% X
4 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 56 13 5 4 30 100% 97% X
5 Mass.-Lowell East 55 15 5 3 33 100% 94% X
6 Minnesota Big 10 54 13 5 2 28 100% 84% X
7 North Dakota NCHC 53 13 7 3 29 100% 81% X
8 Union ECAC 52 17 5 2 36 100% 89% X
9 Western Michigan NCHC 51 11 6 3 25 100% 75% X
10 Cornell ECAC 50 11 4 1 23 100% 69% X
11 Vermont East 49 15 7 2 32 100% 81% X
12 Harvard ECAC 48 11 5 1 23 100% 63% X
13 Ohio State Big 10 47 11 4 5 27 100% 73% X
14 St. Lawrence ECAC 46 12 6 6 30 100% 51% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 24 Line Movers
15 Boston College East 45 14 9 2 30 100% 48% X
16 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 44 13 8 3 29 100% 35% X
17 Notre Dame East 43 13 8 2 28 100% 25% X
18 Providence East 42 10 8 4 24 100% 19% X
19 Robert Morris Atlantic 41 13 6 3 29 >99% 38% X
20 Bemidji State WCHA 40 15 8 3 33 91% 39% X
21 St. Cloud State NCHC 39 10 11 1 21 100% 13% X
22 Air Force Atlantic 38 13 7 4 30 >99% 37% X
23 Quinnipiac ECAC 37 13 10 2 28 96% 14% X
24 Miami NCHC 36 8 9 5 21 100% 11% X
25 Michigan Tech WCHA 35 14 9 5 33 72% 27% X
26 Wisconsin Big 10 34 10 7 1 21 100% 16% X
27 Clarkson ECAC 33 11 9 3 25 >99% 9% X
28 Connecticut East 32 9 8 6 24 >99% 4% X
29 Dartmouth ECAC 31 7 8 3 17 >99% 5% X
30 Minnesota State WCHA 30 14 8 2 30 73% 23% X
31 New Hampshire East 29 11 8 3 25 100% 4% X
32 Yale ECAC 28 7 7 3 17 >99% 5% X
33 Army Atlantic 27 12 8 3 27 48% 15% X
34 Northeastern N. Eastern East 26 7 10 5 19 98% 1% X
35 Canisius Atlantic 25 8 10 5 21 12% 12% X
36 Michigan Big 10 24 8 11 1 17 >99% 5% X
37 Colorado College NCHC 23 6 14 2 14 >99% 1% X
38 Bowling Green WCHA 22 12 13 2 26 X 10% X
39 Merrimack East 21 8 11 3 19 95% 1% X
40 Holy Cross Atlantic 19 9 9 4 22 4% 6% X
41 Princeton ECAC 19 7 11 2 16 41% 1% X
42 RIT Atlantic 18 10 12 1 21 2% 6% X
43 Maine East 17 8 11 3 19 77% 1% X
44 Bentley Atlantic 16 6 11 5 17 1% 3% X
45 Lake Superior WCHA 15 9 12 3 21 X 3% X
46 Sacred Heart Atlantic 14 8 13 3 19 X 2% X
47 Mercyhurst Atlantic 13 9 13 1 19 <1% 3% X
48 Arizona St. Independent Ind. 12 7 17 2 16 X X X
49 Colgate ECAC 12 4 12 5 13 2% <1% X
50 Alaska WCHA 10 7 14 3 17 X 2% X
51 Michigan State Big 10 9 4 15 1 9 8% 1% X
52 Massachusetts Mass. East 8 5 16 2 12 X <1% X
53 Ferris State WCHA 7 7 14 4 18 X 1% X
54 American Int'l Atlantic 6 5 13 6 16 X <1% X
55 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 5 5 14 5 15 X 1% X
56 UAH WCHA 4 7 15 2 16 X <1% X
57 Brown ECAC 3 3 13 1 7 X <1% X
58 Northern Michigan WCHA 2 5 17 4 14 X <1% X
59 Rensselaer ECAC 1 4 21 1 9 X <1% X
60 Niagara Atlantic 0 3 16 3 9 X <1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot