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NCAA Hockey - Week 5 of 24

NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilities, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitation based upon their rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.


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NCAA Hockey Tournament Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L T Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Vermont East 76 4 0 0 > 99% 71% X
2 Minnesota Big 10 75 4 0 0 > 99% 76% X
3 Michigan Tech WCHA 75 4 0 0 > 99% 68% X
4 Boston University East 72 3 0 0 > 99% 62% X
5 Colgate ECAC 70 5 1 0 > 99% 58% X
6 Union ECAC 69 5 1 0 100% 56% X
7 Alaska WCHA 68 5 1 0 > 99% 54% X
8 Nebraska-Omaha NCHC 67 3 1 0 > 99% 55% X
9 Northern Michigan WCHA 67 4 0 0 > 99% 50% X
10 Bowling Green WCHA 65 4 1 1 > 99% 48% X
11 Merrimack East 64 4 1 0 > 99% 46% X
12 St. Cloud State NCHC 63 2 2 0 > 99% 47% X
13 Denver NCHC 63 3 1 0 > 99% 46% X
14 North Dakota NCHC 62 4 1 1 > 99% 43% X
15 Boston College East 61 3 1 0 100% 41% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 33 Line Movers
16 Minnesota State WCHA 61 4 2 0 > 99% 40% X
17 Miami NCHC 60 4 2 0 > 99% 39% X
18 Robert Morris Atlantic 59 5 0 1 > 99% 42% X
19 Mass.-Lowell East 58 3 1 1 > 99% 37% X
20 Minnesota-Duluth NCHC 57 3 3 0 > 99% 34% X
21 Penn State Big 10 57 3 1 2 > 99% 37% X
22 Alaska-Anchorage WCHA 56 3 1 2 > 99% 30% X
23 New Hampshire East 52 2 2 0 > 99% 25% X
24 Canisius Atlantic 51 4 2 0 > 99% 27% X
25 Bemidji State WCHA 50 1 3 0 > 99% 23% X
26 Ferris State WCHA 50 2 3 0 > 99% 21% X
27 Brown ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
28 Dartmouth ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 27% X
29 Harvard ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
30 Cornell ECAC 50 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
31 Princeton ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
32 Yale ECAC 49 0 0 0 > 99% 26% X
33 Clarkson ECAC 49 2 3 1 > 99% 20% X
34 Mercyhurst Atlantic 49 2 2 0 > 99% 24% X
35 Bentley Atlantic 49 3 2 0 > 99% 22% X
36 Michigan Big 10 48 2 3 0 > 99% 23% X
37 St. Lawrence ECAC 48 3 3 0 > 99% 19% X
38 Western Michigan NCHC 47 2 4 0 > 99% 17% X
39 Connecticut East 46 1 3 1 > 99% 16% X
40 Providence East 44 1 2 1 > 99% 14% X
41 Massachusetts East 44 2 3 0 > 99% 12% X
42 Quinnipiac ECAC 44 1 2 1 > 99% 13% X
43 Notre Dame East 42 4 2 0 100% 9% X
44 Maine East 41 1 4 1 > 99% 7% X
45 Army Atlantic 40 2 3 1 99% 12% X
46 Sacred Heart Atlantic 39 2 4 0 99% 11% X
47 RIT Atlantic 38 2 3 0 > 99% 9% X
48 Michigan State Big 10 38 1 3 0 > 99% 9% X
49 Colorado College NCHC 37 2 4 0 > 99% 4% X
50 Air Force Atlantic 37 2 4 0 > 99% 7% X
51 Ohio State Big 10 35 1 3 0 > 99% 6% X
52 Rensselaer ECAC 34 1 5 0 > 99% 2% X
53 Wisconsin Big 10 32 0 4 0 > 99% 4% X
54 Northeastern East 31 0 4 0 > 99% 1% X
55 Holy Cross Atlantic 30 1 4 1 97% 3% X
56 Lake Superior WCHA 25 0 8 0 > 99% < 1% X
57 UAH WCHA 24 0 6 0 > 99% < 1% X
58 American Int'l Atlantic 22 0 4 1 99% 1% X
59 Niagara Atlantic 14 0 6 0 89% < 1% X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot