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NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Where will your team be seeded in the NCAA Tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities table present the probability that a team obtains different seedings. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 12 and 13. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf Record NCAA Tournament Seedings
W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NT
1 Notre DameN.Dame Big 10 Big 10 28 10 2 58 X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 St. Cloud State NCHC NCHC 25 9 6 56 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Denver NCHC NCHC 23 10 8 54 X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 Ohio State Big 10 Big 10 26 10 5 57 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Cornell ECAC ECAC 25 6 2 52 X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 Minnesota StateMinn. State WCHA WCHA 29 10 1 59 X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 Minnesota-DuluthMinn.-Duluth NCHC NCHC 25 16 3 53 X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 Michigan Big 10 Big 10 22 15 3 47 X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 ProvidenceProvid. EastEast 24 12 4 52 X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 MinnesotaMinn. Big 10 Big 10 19 17 2 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
11 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 23 10 5 51 X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 Penn State Big 10 Big 10 18 15 5 41 X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
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13 Clarkson ECAC ECAC 23 11 6 52 X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 North Dakota NCHC NCHC 17 13 10 44 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
15 Boston UniversityBoston U. EastEast 22 14 4 48 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
16 Nebraska-OmahaNebr.-Omaha NCHC NCHC 17 17 2 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
17 Boston College EastEast 20 14 3 43 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
18 Bowling Green WCHA WCHA 23 12 6 52 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
19 Princeton ECAC ECAC 19 13 4 42 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
20 Northern MichiganN. Mich. WCHA WCHA 25 15 3 53 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
21 MercyhurstMercy. Atlantic Atlantic 21 12 4 46 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
22 Colorado College NCHC NCHC 15 17 5 35 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
23 Union ECAC ECAC 21 15 2 44 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
24 Western Michigan NCHC NCHC 15 19 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
25 Michigan TechMich. Tech WCHA WCHA 22 17 5 49 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^
26 Air Force Atlantic Atlantic 23 15 5 51 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^
27 WisconsinWiscon. Big 10 Big 10 14 19 4 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
28 Miami NCHC NCHC 12 20 5 29 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
29 Maine EastEast 18 16 4 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
30 Harvard ECAC ECAC 15 14 4 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
31 Bemidji State WCHA WCHA 16 14 8 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
32 QuinnipiacQuinn. ECAC ECAC 16 18 4 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
33 Michigan State Big 10 Big 10 12 22 2 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
34 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 15 19 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 Colgate ECAC ECAC 17 17 6 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
36 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 17 20 2 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
37 Canisius Atlantic Atlantic 19 17 2 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 DartmouthDartm. ECAC ECAC 16 17 2 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Mass.-Lowell EastEast 17 19 0 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Yale ECAC ECAC 15 15 1 31 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Army Atlantic Atlantic 15 15 6 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 MerrimackMerri. EastEast 12 21 4 28 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Robert Morris Atlantic Atlantic 18 20 3 39 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 American Int'lAmer. Int'l Atlantic Atlantic 15 20 4 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Bentley Atlantic Atlantic 13 18 6 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 RIT Atlantic Atlantic 15 20 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Holy Cross Atlantic Atlantic 13 16 7 33 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Vermont EastEast 10 20 7 27 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Sacred Heart Atlantic Atlantic 13 22 4 30 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Ferris State WCHA WCHA 14 23 1 29 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 UAH WCHA WCHA 12 23 2 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 New HampshireNew Hamp. EastEast 10 20 6 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 8 21 5 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Niagara Atlantic Atlantic 11 22 3 25 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Brown ECAC ECAC 8 19 4 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Lake Superior WCHA WCHA 10 22 4 24 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Alaska WCHA WCHA 11 22 3 25 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 RensselaerRenss. ECAC ECAC 6 27 4 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 St. LawrenceSt. Lawr. ECAC ECAC 8 27 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Alaska-AnchorageAlaska-Anchor. WCHA WCHA 4 26 4 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot