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NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Where will your team be seeded in the NCAA Tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities table present the probability that a team obtains different seedings. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf Record NCAA Tournament Seedings
W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NT
1 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 26 5 4 56 88% 9% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Minnesota State WCHAWCHA 31 5 2 64 10% 60% 28% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Cornell ECACECAC 23 2 4 50 2% 30% 58% 8% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 22 10 2 46 X <1% 7% 50% 29% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Denver NCHCNCHC 21 9 6 48 X X <1% 5% 55% 26% 11% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 Boston College EastEast 24 8 2 50 X <1% 5% 34% 12% 47% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 Penn State Big 10Big 10 20 10 4 44 X X X <1% 1% 8% 32% 33% 21% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 21 11 2 44 X X X <1% <1% 1% 23% 20% 19% 18% 12% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 Clarkson ECACECAC 23 8 3 49 X X X <1% <1% 3% 15% 21% 23% 15% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% <1% 1%
10 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 20 11 5 45 X X X X <1% 2% 15% 12% 13% 24% 20% 10% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
11 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 18 10 6 42 X X X X <1% <1% 2% 6% 6% 9% 13% 12% 10% 9% 6% <1% 27%
12 Bemidji State WCHAWCHA 22 10 5 49 X X X X X X <1% 2% 5% 7% 10% 12% 11% 8% 6% <1% 40%
13 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 22 11 3 47 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 23% 32% 24% 8% <1% 6%
14 Michigan Big 10Big 10 18 14 4 40 X X X X X X X <1% 2% 6% 6% 4% 6% 10% 12% <1% 54%
15 Maine EastEast 18 11 5 41 X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 9% 8% <1% 57%
Cutline - Click Here to View 18 Line Movers
16 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 18 13 5 41 X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 9% 10% 8% <1% 54%
17 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 21 11 2 44 X X X X X X <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 8% <1% 55%
18 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 16 14 7 39 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% <1% 76%
19 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 18 13 3 39 X X X X X X <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 4% <1% 79%
20 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 15 15 7 37 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
21 Bowling Green WCHAWCHA 21 13 4 46 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% <1% 90%
22 Providence EastEast 16 12 6 38 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 94%
23 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 21 10 3 45 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 70%
24 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 13 15 6 32 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% <1% 96%
25 Michigan Tech WCHAWCHA 21 15 3 45 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 94%
26 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 21 12 1 43 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 21% 76%
27 Harvard ECACECAC 15 10 6 36 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 5% <1% 94%
28 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 15 19 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
29 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 14 17 5 33 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 98%
30 Boston University EastEast 13 13 8 34 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 1% 95%
31 New Hampshire EastEast 15 15 4 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
32 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 14 20 2 30 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
33 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 15 15 4 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 2% 95%
34 Northern Michigan WCHAWCHA 18 16 4 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 19 13 4 42 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 18% 82%
36 Rensselaer ECACECAC 17 15 2 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 3% 95%
37 Alaska WCHAWCHA 16 15 5 37 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Army AtlanticAtlantic 17 13 3 37 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 14% 85%
39 Yale ECACECAC 15 15 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 1% 98%
40 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 11 20 3 25 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
41 Dartmouth ECACECAC 13 14 4 30 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 Colgate ECACECAC 12 16 8 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 99%
43 Lake Superior WCHAWCHA 14 23 4 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 Miami NCHCNCHC 8 21 5 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
45 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 17 16 3 37 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 4% 96%
46 Merrimack EastEast 9 22 3 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 12 18 4 28 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 4% 96%
48 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 12 18 6 30 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 3% 97%
49 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 13 19 5 31 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
50 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 10 20 6 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 11 21 5 27 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Vermont EastEast 5 23 6 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Brown ECACECAC 8 21 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Union ECACECAC 8 25 4 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Princeton ECACECAC 6 20 5 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
56 Ferris State WCHAWCHA 7 26 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Alaska-AnchorageAK-Anch WCHAWCHA 4 25 7 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 UAH WCHAWCHA 2 26 6 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 4 27 5 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 5 29 2 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot