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NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities

Where will your team be seeded in the NCAA Tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities table present the probability that a team obtains different seedings. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 15 and 16. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

NCAA Hockey Tournament Seedings Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf Record NCAA Tournament Seedings
W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NT
1 St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 30 5 3 63 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 25 11 2 52 X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Minnesota State WCHAWCHA 32 7 2 66 X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 MassachusettsMass. EastEast 28 9 0 56 X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Clarkson ECACECAC 26 10 2 54 X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 27 10 1 55 X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 Quinnipiac ECACECAC 25 9 2 52 X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 Denver NCHCNCHC 21 11 5 47 X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 Ohio State Big 10Big 10 20 10 5 45 X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 Arizona St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 21 12 1 43 X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 Cornell ECACECAC 20 10 4 44 X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 22 13 3 47 X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 Harvard ECACECAC 19 10 3 41 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 Providence EastEast 22 11 6 50 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^ ^
15 Bowling Green WCHAWCHA 25 10 5 55 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^ ^
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16 Penn State Big 10Big 10 22 15 2 46 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
17 Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 21 15 1 43 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
18 Union ECACECAC 20 13 6 46 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
19 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 18 16 4 40 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
20 North Dakota NCHCNCHC 18 17 2 38 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
21 Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 19 13 5 43 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
22 Lake Superior WCHAWCHA 23 13 2 48 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
23 Colorado College NCHCNCHC 17 19 4 38 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
24 Northern Michigan WCHAWCHA 21 16 2 44 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
25 Boston University EastEast 16 18 4 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
26 Brown ECACECAC 15 14 5 35 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
27 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 14 18 5 33 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
28 Michigan Big 10Big 10 13 16 7 33 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
29 Maine EastEast 15 17 4 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
30 Yale ECACECAC 15 15 3 33 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
31 American Int'l AtlanticAtlantic 22 16 1 45 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100% ^
32 Michigan State Big 10Big 10 12 19 5 29 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
33 New Hampshire EastEast 12 15 9 33 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
34 Boston College EastEast 14 22 3 31 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 Bemidji State WCHAWCHA 15 17 6 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
36 RIT AtlanticAtlantic 17 17 4 38 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
37 Dartmouth ECACECAC 13 17 4 30 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Miami NCHCNCHC 11 23 4 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Vermont EastEast 12 19 3 27 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Bentley AtlanticAtlantic 17 15 5 39 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Sacred Heart AtlanticAtlantic 16 17 4 36 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 Michigan Tech WCHAWCHA 14 20 4 32 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Air Force AtlanticAtlantic 16 15 5 37 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 Princeton ECACECAC 10 18 3 23 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Niagara AtlanticAtlantic 17 19 5 39 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 ConnecticutUConn EastEast 12 20 2 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 9 24 3 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Alaska WCHAWCHA 12 21 3 27 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Robert Morris AtlanticAtlantic 16 22 2 34 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Colgate ECACECAC 10 23 3 23 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Rensselaer ECACECAC 10 23 3 23 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Army AtlanticAtlantic 12 20 7 31 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Mercyhurst AtlanticAtlantic 13 20 5 31 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Canisius AtlanticAtlantic 12 20 5 29 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Merrimack EastEast 7 24 3 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Holy Cross AtlanticAtlantic 10 21 5 25 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Ferris State WCHAWCHA 10 23 3 23 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 UAH WCHAWCHA 8 28 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 St. Lawrence ECACECAC 6 29 2 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Alaska-AnchorageAK-Anch WCHAWCHA 3 28 3 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot